Sunday, January 12, 2014

What's going on in the World Today 140106


Captain Renault: What in heaven's name brought you to Casablanca?
Rick: My health. I came to Casablanca for the waters.
Captain Renault: The waters? What waters? We're in the desert.
Rick: I was misinformed.


A bit late, but Happy New Year.

HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:
USA

Pepper spray routs Charleston nightclub's New Year's Eve party

Someone released stinging pepper spray at Club Pantheon on New Year's Eve as $3,000 rained on the dance floor and revelers counted down to 2014, officials said....

...On its Facebook page, the Ann Street nightspot on Thursday offered a $1,000 reward for the identity of the person responsible for what happened.

"Probably thought he was going to get all the money," the club said....

...Police officers who responded to a call from the club were unable to track a suspect because they could not find anyone who said they had seen the person who released the pepper spray, the report says.

Eight people were treated for exposure to pepper spray. No one was taken to the hospital, said Charleston County EMS Director Don Lundy....

...Lawson Roberts said he went to the club about 10 minutes after the incident to see if the confetti cannon he provided for the party had worked as intended. He saw people outside who complained of burning eyes.

"It was disturbing," he said.

Roberts described the situation as "a terrible loss" for the club owner.

PERSONAL COMMENT Yo Robert, kinda a "terrible loss" for the owner's patrons too.

January 4, Associated Press – (Massachusetts; New Hampshire) Stolen medical data prompts $150K fine. The Department of Health and Human Services’ Office for Civil Rights reported that Adult & Pediatric Dermatology settled any potential violations of health and security rules by paying $150,000 after a 2011 theft of a computer flash drive. The flash drive, which contained 2,000 patient records, was stolen from a locked car at an employee’s home in Lowell, Massachusetts, and has not been recovered.

AFRICA

Disagreement Persists on Ethiopia's Planned Dam

ASIA

The Indo-Japanese Relationship: Rhetoric and Reality

In Bangladesh, More Tensions Expected After National Elections

Japan: Defense Ministry Drew Up Plan To Increase Military Garrison In 2014, Report Says January 6, 2014

According to a report by Kyodo News, the Japanese Defense Ministry drew up a plan in 2013 to strengthen defense in the southwestern islands by increasing its military garrison in 2014, Ifeng reported Jan. 6.

Turkey: Government Fires 350 Police Officers January 7, 2014

Hundreds of Turkish police officers were dismissed from their posts overnight Jan. 6 by government decree, AFP reported Jan. 7. The firings further undermine a graft investigation that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan portrays as a covert attempt by a rival to usurp state power.

Georgia: Military Upgrade Courts the West

Turkey's Role in the Syrian Rebel Landscape

KNIGHTWATCH 140107

North Korea: Kim Jong Un's aunt, the wife of Chang Sung-taek who was purged and executed last month, has either died of a heart attack or committed suicide, according to an unconfirmed press report.

Kim Kyong-hui, previously a leading figure in the regime, is believed to have been ill for several years and was reportedly treated for cancer and travelled to Russia last month for a heart complaint.

Comment: This is a single-source report that is unconfirmed. If it is accurate, then Kim Jong Un has no family guardians who may be traced to the will of his father, Kim Chong-il.

He has extensive family responsibilities as head of the Kim clan in the North. However, he can pursue his pet projects without reminders or reprimands from his family elders, all of whom are dead, if this report is accurate.

PERSONAL NOTE: ...has either died of a heart attack or committed suicide, ...kinda reminds me of this great quote from Casablanca :

We haven't quite decided yet whether he committed suicide or died trying to escape.

EUROPE

The United Kingdom's Geographic Challenge

MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan: 88 Prisoners To Be Released Despite U.S. Objections January 6, 2014

The Afghan government will free 88 prisoners despite U.S. objections, an Afghan review board said, Reuters reported Jan. 6. Washington claims that the prisoners, who are being held at a jail at Bagram air base, have been involved in the killing of foreign troops. The Afghan review board said there was no evidence to warrant their continued detention

CHINA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

IRAN

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

IRAQ

Iraq: Momentary Gains for a Jihadist Group

US steps up Iraq weapons shipments

The US is accelerating its deliveries of military equipment to Iraq to help it fight Islamic militants who have overrun Fallujah and entrenched themselves in other parts of the country, the White House has announced....

...Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil), part of al-Qaida's network, has been tightening its grip on the country's Anbar province and last week captured positions in Ramadi and large parts of Fallujah.

On Tuesday Iraqi officials said fierce clashes were under way between Iraqi special forces and al-Qaida-linked militants outside Fallujah. A government official told the Associated Press the fighting erupted after an army officer and four soldiers were captured by militants during clashes in the same area on Monday...

...The United States was looking to provide additional shipments of Hellfire missiles to Iraq, Carney said, as well as 10 ScanEagle drones and 48 Raven drones.

Maliki has urged Fallujah residents to expel al-Qaida militants to avoid an all-out battle in the besieged city as the government apparently prepares for military push against the Sunni insurgents. The prime minister did not say how he expected Fallujah residents and pro-government tribesmen to push out the militants. In his message, broadcast over state TV, he also urged Iraqi troops to avoid targeting residential areas. Dozens of families have begun fleeing Fallujah to nearby towns, crammed in cars loaded with their belongings.

The militants' seizure of Fallujah and parts of nearby Ramadi, once bloody battlegrounds for US troops, has marked the most direct challenge to Maliki's government since the departure of American forces two years ago. Both the US and its longtime rival Iran view the escalating conflict with alarm, with neither wanting to see al-Qaida take firmer root inside Iraq. Washington has ruled out sending in American troops.

Tehran has signalled it is willing to send military equipment and advisers should Baghdad ask for it. It is unclear whether Baghdad would take up the offer from Iran, which has ruled out sending ground troops.

Any direct Iranian help would exacerbate sectarian tensions fueling Iraq's conflict, as Iraqi Sunnis accuse Tehran of backing what they say are their Shia-led government's unfair policies against them. Iran has the power to sway Maliki's political fortunes ahead of upcoming elections through its deep ties to Iraq's major Shia factions, which have dominated government offices and security forces since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Iraqi government troops have surrounded Fallujah, which was overrun by the insurgents last week. The city is 40 miles (65km) west of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, in the vast Sunni-dominated and largely desert province of Anbar, which borders Syria, where al-Qaida-linked groups are among the most formidable fighters among the rebels trying to topple President Bashar Assad.

Iraq: Air Force Strikes Ramadi January 6, 2014

Iraq's air force on Jan. 6 launched a strike on Ramadi, killing 25 militants, officials said, Reuters reported. Government forces in Anbar province have met with tribal leaders to push for assistance in driving out militants who have taken parts of Ramadi and Fallujah

Iraq: ISIL Senior Member Killed January 6, 2014

Abu Abdelrahman al-Bilawi, al Qaeda's second-in-command in Anbar province, Iraq, has been killed in fighting against government and tribal forces, Al Arabiya reported Jan. 6. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has yet to confirm the death. The group is under increasing pressure on two fronts.

Iraq: ISIL Starts Withdrawing From Fallujah January 7, 2014

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has begun withdrawing from Fallujah, Iraq, into the suburbs, a security source said, Iraqi News reported Jan. 7. The group had reportedly managed to seize practically half of Fallujah but is experiencing heavy losses on two fronts.

Iraq: U.S. Will Not Send Troops To Assist Iraqi Forces January 5, 2014

The United States will not send troops to help the Iraqi government with its military operations to retake Fallujah and Ramadi from al Qaeda-linked militants, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said at a press conference in Jerusalem on Jan. 5, Bloomberg News reported. Kerry added that Washington is providing assistance in other ways, and is in touch with pro-government tribal leaders in the region.

Iraq: Army Shells Fallujah To Dislodge Militants January 4, 2014

The Iraqi army shelled the city of Fallujah with mortar bombs overnight on Jan. 3-4 to try to take back control from al Qaeda-linked Sunni militants and tribesmen, killing at least eight people and wounding another 30, tribal leaders and officials said, Reuters reported. The city has been held by the militants and tribal fighters, which have united in their opposition to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, since Dec. 30. Officials and witnesses said the northern and eastern parts of the city remained under control of the tribesmen and militants after residents have fled the neighborhoods to avoid the shelling. Militants have deployed snipers atop buildings to prevent the army from entering the city.

ISRAEL

Netanyahu: No Kerry framework deal yet, and it won’t be binding anyway

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his Likud Knesset faction Monday that “there is no American framework document yet,” and that even if it could be agreed, it would not be binding on the sides, Channel 2 reported. He also assured the Likud MKs that he had not given in to American pressure for more flexible positions regarding the fate of Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley, and said he was only too aware of the consequences of dismantling settlements in the absence of a viable peace accord, the report said.

Referring to Israel’s dismantling of its settlements in Gaza and unilateral withdrawal from the Strip in 2005 — which was followed by a Hamas takeover, rocket fire into Israel and two small wars — Netanyahu reportedly told his colleagues, “We saw what happened when we closed our eyes and dismantled settlements. In the best case we get peace; in the worst, we get Afghanistan.”

The report said Netanyahu did not rule out dismantling settlements at any price. Another report on Channel 10 said the prime minister had told the Likud meeting he did not intend to dismantle settlements, but did not indicate whether Netanyahu was referring to the short term or further down the line....

...The two sides are believed to be at odds over almost every aspect of the core issues involved in a two-state accord. Kerry has been reportedly pushing Netanyahu to agree to at least keep talking on the basis of a Palestinian state to be established along the pre-1967 lines, with land-swap adjustments, and urging Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to recognize Israel as a Jewish state.

Beyond these points, the two sides are said to disagree over security arrangements, border demarcations, the fate of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugee demands under a permanent deal. There have also been disputes over who will be released in a final phase of prisoner releases by Israel of terror convicts in the coming months. And it is unclear whether the Palestinians are prepared to extend the current talks beyond their scheduled expiry date in late April.

RUSSIA

Russia: Large Security Operation Underway In Run-Up To Games January 7, 2014

Russia has begun a large-scale security operation with one month to go before the start of winter Olympic games in Sochi, RFERL reported Jan. 7, citing AFP and the BBC. Army soldiers with armored vehicles, as well as navy officers patrolling the Black Sea, will join more than 30,000 police and military personnel already tasked to oversee the games, held from Feb. 7-23.

SYRIA

In Syria, a Bleak Future for an Al Qaeda Front Group

Turkey's Role in the Syrian Rebel Landscape

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

In Lebanon, a Saudi Militant Leader Dies Under Suspicious Circumstances

Saudi Arabia: Battling al Qaeda for Regional Primacy

Saudi Billionaire Prince: Fracking Competitively Threatens ˜Any Oil Producing Country in the World™ | CNS News

(CNSNews.com) – Saudi Arabia’s Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, a billionaire businessman and nephew of Saudi King Abdullah, said the production of shale oil and natural gas in the United States and other countries, primarily done through fracking, is a real competitive threat to “any oil-producing country in the world,” adding that Saudi Arabia must address the issue because it is a “matter of survival.”

New shale oil discoveries “are threats to any oil-producing country in the world,” said Prince Alwaleed in an interview with The Globe and Mail. “It is a pivot moment for any oil-producing country that has not diversified. Ninety-two percent of Saudi Arabia’s annual budget comes from oil. Definitely it is a worry and a concern.”

Alwaleed also commented that many Saudi leaders did not comprehend the threat posed by oil and natural gas production from shale. However, he said he would use his influence to keep pressing the issue.

“I will make them get it, there is no doubt about that,” he said. “I’ll make them get it. It is a matter of survival. There is no choice but to get it. I will keep pushing until they do.”

“The majority of Saudi Arabians get it,” said the prince. “We will mobilize the media, mobilize the people to put maximum pressure on the government to do things to rectify the problem.”...

..."It is necessary to diversify sources of revenue, establish a clear vision for that and start implementing it immediately,” said the prince, who added, “we see that raising North American shale gas production is an inevitable threat.”...

...According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), fracking (and horizontal drilling) has resulted in the United States becoming (in 2010) the world’s largest natural gas producer. Also, in October 2013, domestic oil production surpassed the amount of oil imported into the United States for the first time since 1995.

In addition, because of fracking, America is projected to surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the largest oil producer in 2015, according to the EIA.

In 2008, the United States was producing 5 million barrels of crude oil per day; because of fracking, America is now producing 7 million barrels per day.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), “A little more than a decade ago natural gas production from shale accounted for 2% of total U.S. output. Today that figure is 37%, and another HIS Global study projects that natural gas developed through the use of hydraulic fracturing will rise to more than 75% of the domestic supply by 2035.”

MISC

Annual Forecast 2014

Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Jan. 6, 2014

From Boston to Kenya: Security and Terrorism in 2013

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

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