USA
U.S., Canada: Railway Regulations Will Not Deter the Energy Revolution
North America's Railways as an Energy Solution
U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 16, 2014
AFRICA
In South Sudan, Both Sides Seek an Advantage Before Any Possible Cease-Fire
South Sudan: Government Forces Retake Malakal January 20, 2014
Government soldiers have retaken Malakal from rebels supporting Riek Machar, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit said Jan. 20, Reuters reported. The rebels dismissed the claim, but if it is confirmed, it would be the second major location retaken by Kiir's forces with the backing of the Ugandan army in the past three days. Since Jan. 14 there has been heavy fighting, including tank battles, in the streets of Malakal, the regional capital of Upper Nile state.
ASIA
Kazakhstan's Looser Migrant Worker Rules Will Aggravate Tensions
Thailand: Government Considering State Of Emergency January 20, 2014
Thai authorities are considering declaring a state of emergency after violence over the weekend in Bangkok during anti-government protests, National Security Council chief Paradorn Pattantabutr said Jan. 20 after a meeting with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Reuters reported. Thailand's potential role as a regional economic leader is being undermined by the political unrest.
Credit card details on 20 million South Koreans stolen
Credit card details from almost half of all South Koreans have been stolen and sold to marketing firms.
The data was stolen by a computer contractor working for a company called the Korea Credit Bureau that produces credit scores.
The names, social security numbers and credit card details of 20 million South Koreans were copied by the IT worker...
...Early reports suggest that the contractor got hold of the giant trove of data thanks to the access Korea Credit Bureau enjoys to databases run by three big South Korean credit card firms. The contractor stole the data by copying it to a USB stick....
The Costs of Unrest in Thailand
Transdniestria Challenges Moldova Over Its EU Aspirations
Japan's Naval Ambitions in the Indian Ocean
EUROPE
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA
Mexico's Mounting Challenge With Self-Defense Groups in Michoacan
Mexican government says 'vigilantes not the target'
Mexican officials have urged vigilantes to let the police take on the cartels
The Mexican government has tried to reassure vigilantes in the western state of Michoacan that they are not the target of its security operation.
Hundreds of troops have been sent to the area to restore order after groups of vigilantes clashed with members of the Knights Templar drug cartel.
Many of the "self-defence groups" have refused to heed the government's call to lay down arms.
The interior minister said "they're not our target, the criminals are".
Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong said he wanted to convince the vigilantes that "we are going to do our job".
He said that the security forces had identified the three top leaders of the Knights Templar cartel and were hunting them down....
Mexico Knights Templar 'leader' captured in Michoacan
Mexican security forces have arrested 38 members of the Knights Templar drug cartel, as part of an operation to restore order in Michoacan state.
Jesus Vasquez Macias, 37, whom officials described as a leading figure in the gang, was among those detained.
Hundreds of troops were deployed last week after violent scenes as groups of vigilantes clashed with gang members.
The vigilantes accuse the government of not doing enough to protect locals from extortion and violence.
Many members of the so-called self-defence groups are refusing to heed the government's call to disarm.
Hit-man
Mr Vasquez Macias, also known as "El Toro" (The Bull), was arrested along with two other men and charged with offences related to organised crime, a National Public Security System spokesman said.
The three were detained in the port city of Lazaro Cardenas, Monte Alejandro Rubido Garcia told a news conference.
Federal forces are now in control of 27 of Michoacan state's 113 municipalities, he said.
"No violent acts have been recorded in these six days and normal life is being gradually restored in the Tierra Caliente area," Mr Rubido said....
AFGHANISTAN
FP's Situation Report: Biden Renews Push for the Zero Option
By Gordon Lubold
Biden is pushing again for the "zero option" -- or something awfully close to it. . Vice President Joe Biden is behind a fresh push to withdraw most if not all American troops from Afghanistan, leaving the military and other Afghan hands who think sustaining some military presence there after 2014 will avoid squandering the losses over more than 12 years of war. National security officials discussed Afghanistan at the White House yesterday. The WSJ's Dion Nissenbaum, Julian Barnes and Carol Lee: "The White House convened a meeting of top national-security officials on Thursday to discuss the war and the future of the U.S. troop presence. Mr. Biden has lost previous debates on Afghanistan, but his arguments for a smaller force, likely of 2,000 to 3,000 troops, have gained traction within an administration increasingly frustrated by Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Mr. Karzai has refused to sign a security agreement allowing American forces to remain in small numbers after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization mission there formally ends this year. Some U.S. defense officials, preferring a remaining post-2014 U.S. force of 9,000-12,000, are skeptical of the smaller troop presence Mr. Biden and others advocate. Such a force would be so limited that a full pullout would make more military sense, the officials said."
A military official to the WSJ: "We are coming to grips with the potential for zero."..
CHINA
KNIGHTWATCH 140121
North Korea-China: A South Korean news service reported that on 12 January, Kim Jong Un told the military cadres that "the DPRK-China border is a front line before being a border" and gave orders to reinforce border security.
In compliance with this order, supposedly the military formations in the three provinces that border China moved northwards towards the China border, instead of facing south. Those forces include the 8th Army Corps, based in North Pyongan Province which guards the western part of the border; major combat elements of the 12th Army Corps based in Yanggang Province in the central border region; and the 9th Army Corps based in North Hamgyong Province with covers the eastern part of the China border.
According to the news service, the order to consider the China border a front line was a reaction to a large Chinese military exercise in Shenyang Province on the borders of North Korea. The Chinese exercise occurred in the first week of January and involved some 100,000 Chinese soldiers.
Comment: Other news sources have reported the Chinese exercise. The North Korean reaction is not confirmed. It also would not be much of a surprise. Under the influence of Chang Sung-taek, China's influence was expanding slowly in North Korea, spurred by advice and investment. His death might have sparked concern about stability in North Korea that justified special training for a variety of military contingencies along the border.
All the Kims have despised the Chinese, despite China's role in the Korean War. The Chinese consider the Kim's an embarrassment and a retreat from communist theory. Dynastic succession is counter-revolutionary by definition.
The Chinese exercises suggest concern about the stability of the Korean border region. Under the mutual friendship treaty, China does not require a North Korean invitation to invade in the event the North becomes unstable.
North Korean paranoia about a Chinese invasion is such that Kim, on the advice of his marshals and generals, might order increased defensive measures.
Problems with China would help explain the North's somewhat conciliatory overtures to South Korea. The North Koreans cannot fight a two-front war. The leadership apparently judges the South Korean front line is the easier to stabilize through diplomacy at this time while it assesses the potential threat from China.
North Korea has become even more a bastion state in the aftermath of Chang's execution
IRAN
Iran: What It Means to Be Disinvited to the Syria Talks
Iran: Ships Reportedly Dispatched To Atlantic January 21, 2014
Iran is dispatching warships on a mission to the Atlantic Ocean for the first time in the country's history, AP reported Jan. 21, citing Iranian state television. The Sabalan destroyer and Khark logistic helicopter carrier will go on a three-month voyage. No ports of call or specific military mission were mentioned
IRAQ
Iraq: Army Mobilizing In Fallujah January 20, 2014
Iraq's army on Jan. 20 began to mobilize to storm Fallujah, Shafaq News reported, citing an unnamed local official. Elements of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria militant organization have established themselves in the city over the last three weeks, and the army clashed on Jan. 20 with militants in the al-Azraqiya area, in Fallujah's outskirts.
Iraq: Military Operation Targets Militants In Ramadi January 19, 2014
Iraqi troops, with the help of tribal fighters, launched a major operation in Ramadi aimed at expelling armed militants linked to al Qaeda on Jan. 19, a military spokesman told state television, Al Jazeera reported. A ban on movement has been put in place in the city. The militant group, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, does not have the manpower or the force to overcome its innumerable enemies and achieve its end goal of establishing its version of an Islamic caliphate in Syria and Iraq.
KNIGHTWATCH 140115
Iraq: At least seven car bombs detonated across Baghdad on Wednesday in apparently coordinated attacks by militants that killed at least 30 people, according to police and health officials. Separately, at least 18 people were killed when three bombs detonated at a funeral tent in the city of Baqubah, north of Baghdad
The situation in Anbar Province is unclear. Early reports indicated that militants beat Iraqi forces in one town. Later reports indicated Iraq Army forces recovered the lost ground.
Comment: Militant capabilities appear to match those of the Iraq Army which was US trained and equipped. The Iraq Army forces display no signs of following a campaign or strategy. They appear mired in tactics and are regularly getting beaten.
The unclassified battle reports indicate the Iraq Army is incapable of preventing the secession of the Sunni Arab areas. That raises a question about what that army was trained to do. It certainly could never defend Iraq from an outside attacker if it cannot defend Iraq from an inside secessionist force.
ISRAEL
Kazakhstan: Military-Technical Cooperation Deal Expected With Israel January 20, 2014
Kazakh Defense Minister Adilbek Dzhaksybekov arrived in Israel on Jan. 20 for an official visit, during which an agreement on military and technical cooperation is expected to be signed, the Kazakh Defense Ministry's press service said, Central Asian News reported.
Israel: Rockets Fired From Gaza Intercepted January 16, 2014
Israel's missile defense system intercepted five rockets fired at the city of Ashkelon, The Guardian reported Jan. 16. The Israeli military responded by carrying out airstrikes in the Gaza Strip
RUSSIA
Russia's Growing Regional Debts Threaten Stability
Russia's 1998 Financial Crisis in the Regions: A Case Study
Russia and Norway Compete Over the Barents Sea Region
Debt in Russia's Regions
Iran, Russia and an Improbable Oil-for-Goods Deal
Russia: The Economics of Moneylending
SYRIA
Syria: Russia Provides Military Support To Damascus January 17, 2014
Russia has stepped up supplies of military equipment to Syria, boosting President Bashar al Assad's efforts at a time when rebel infighting has weakened the insurgency, an unspecified source said, Reuters reported Jan. 17. Moscow has been providing conventional weapons to Syria to support al Assad during the ongoing civil war.
MIDDLE EAST GENERAL
Israel and Jordan Work to Preserve Their Strategic Relationship
MISC
Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Jan. 20, 2014
January 17, Softpedia – (International) At least one smart refrigerator used in massive cyberattack. Researchers at Proofpoint analyzed a large-scale spam campaign that involved over 750,000 malicious emails and found that more than 100,000 Internet-connected consumer electronic devices were used in the attack, including multimedia centers, smart TVs, routers, and at least one smart refrigerator.
Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM
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