Officer Down

Police Officer Juan Feliciano
New York City Police Department, New York
End of Watch: Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Age: 44
Tour: 21 years

Police Officer Juan Feliciano suffered a fatal heart attack while assisting with bicycle inspections at the NYPD's Driver Training Facility at Floyd Bennett Field.

Officer Feliciano loaded several department bicycles into a van at the 28th Precinct and transported them to a training and repair facility in Brooklyn. Once there he began to off-load the bicycles. As he was removing the bicycles from the van, he suffered a heart attack. Other officers at the facility performed CPR and utilized an AED, but were unable to revive him.

Officer Feliciano served with the New York City Police Department for 21 years and was assigned to the 28th Precinct. He is survived by his wife and two children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Officer Down

Commander Frank Román-Rodríguez
Puerto Rico Police Department, Puerto Rico
End of Watch: Monday, December 28, 2015
Age: 49
Tour: 28 years


Puerto Rico Police Department, Puerto Rico
End of Watch: Monday, December 28, 2015
Age: 42
Tour: 15 years

Lieutenant Luz M. Soto-Segarra
Puerto Rico Police Department, Puerto Rico
End of Watch: Monday, December 28, 2015
Age: 49
Tour: 23 years

Commander Frank Román, Lieutenant Luz Soto, and Agent Rosario Hernández de Hoyos were shot inside the Puerto Rico Police Department's Ponce regional headquarters, near the intersection of PR-1 and PR-52, by a disgruntled police officer.

The subject had entered the headquarters building with two guns and a knife. He proceeded to the sixth floor where he took all three officers hostage. He told Lieutenant Soto to call the press officer, but the call did not go through. The subject then opened fire on the officers, fatally wounding them, before exchanging shots with another officer.

The subject was taken into custody and was transported to a local hospital suffering from gunshot wounds.

Commander Román had served with the Puerto Rico Police Department for 28 years. He was recognized as Commander of the Year in 2014. Commander Román is survived by three children.

Agent Hernández de Hoyos had served with the Puerto Rico Police Department for 15 years. She is survived by her four children.

Lieutenant Soto had served with the Puerto Rico Police Department for 23 years. She is survived by her two sons, and her husband who also serves with the Puerto Rico Police Department.

Rest in Peace…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

What's going on in the World Today 160528

HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:

USA

U.S. Falls Behind in Arctic Great Game

The United States is scrambling to catch up with a big, global push to build icebreakers as the melting Arctic opens the once-frozen north to oil drilling, new shipping and cruise routes, and intensified military competition.

Countries from Russia to China and Chile are all muscling ahead to build a new generation of icebreaking ships. The United States, despite a belated polar effort last year by the Obama administration, has struggled to upgrade its tiny and aging icebreaker fleet, potentially leaving it at a disadvantage in the race for influence in the Arctic.

But on Tuesday, a Senate Appropriations subcommittee earmarked $1 billion for a new polar icebreaker — a potentially big step forward toward building at least the first new ship of its kind in more than a generation.

If passed by Congress, that would fund nearly the entire cost of the ship’s construction, avoiding contentious and yearly fights over money. But it also essentially puts any larger American ambitions in the Arctic on ice for at least a decade while the ship is being built…

Debunking the Myth of the Pivot

On his penultimate trip to Asia this week, U.S. President Barack Obama will have an opportunity to survey the changes that have occurred there during his time in office. As he does, he will find the region much different than it was at the start of his presidency. For the Asia-Pacific region, a single phrase has come to define Obama's administration. In late 2011, as the United States finalized its withdrawal from Iraq, the president declared a great American pivot to Asia. The idea counteracted Washington's dispirited Middle Eastern policy, evoking a massive transfer of U.S. forces and resources to the Asia-Pacific area. Subsequent domestic and international interpretations envisioned the pivot as a tangible thing to be measured in the tonnage of U.S. warships deployed in the region...

The U.S. and Russia Plan for Conflict

Analysis

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. That is the mantra the United States and Russia are abiding by as they plan for a tense few years ahead. In critical areas, including the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine and arms control negotiations, both countries would genuinely like to negotiate viable solutions. Nevertheless, the mistrust between the two runs deep, and vast differences of opinion and outright conflicts of interest will continue to undermine efforts to reach a comprehensive deal. With little hope of a positive outcome, the strategic decision-makers in Washington and Moscow are cementing their security positions against each other during this period of significant hostility…

GLAD TO SEE THAT GUN CONTROL IS WORKING.

May 26, CNN – (New York) One killed in shooting at rapper’s concert. The New York Police Department reported that at least three people were injured and one person was killed May 25 after a suspect opened fire at the Irving Plaza music venue in New York City during a music performance, prompting about 950 attendees to evacuate the building.

AFRICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ASIA

Derailing a Nuclear Program by Force

Exactly how the United States and its allies would derail the North Korean nuclear program depends on many factors, not least of which is the extent to which they want to destabilize the sole governing body in Pyongyang. Washington does not want a long-term intervention, meaning that target sets, duration of activity and levels of violence would be limited. That said, any military action must be carried out swiftly and decisively. Rather than exhaustively explore every possible course of action, in the second part of this series, Stratfor will examine the most likely targets should the United States wish to curtail Pyongyang's nuclear activities through force…

What the U.S. Would Use to Strike North Korea

No other country can match the United States when it comes to projection of power. Should Washington decide to carry out a military strike against North Korea, even a limited one, the immediate impact would be devastating for Pyongyang. When considering military action, however, it is important to acknowledge the variables and intelligence gaps that inevitably complicate political and military decision-making. Even with the United States' advantage in training, coordination and equipment, complicating factors and uncertainty about the exact locations and dispositions of North Korean assets make complete mission success far from assured....

EUROPE

France: German Intelligence Chief Warns Of Islamic State Threat During Soccer Tournament May 27, 2016

The head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency warned May 27 that there are indications the Islamic State may be planning to target spectators at the 2016 UEFA European Championship games, a soccer tournament that will begin in France on June 10, Reuters reported. Hans-Georg Maassen, who heads up Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, said that while investigators have not uncovered concrete evidence of specific Islamic State attack plans, there are indications that the group wants to carry out an attack during the tournament. France has already said it will deploy more than 90,000 police, soldiers and private security guards throughout the monthlong championship. Around 2.5 million fans are predicted to watch 51 football matches taking place at 10 stadiums around the country.

MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

AFGHANISTAN

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

CHINA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

IRAN

U.S.: Washington To Examine New India-Iran Port Deal May 24, 2016

A U.S. State Department official said the United States will examine a new deal between India and Iran to develop the southern Iranian port of Chabahar, Reuters reported May 24. The deal, which the two countries signed May 23, will connect India to Central Asia via Iran and Afghanistan. As part of the agreement, India has pledged up to $500 million to develop the port at Chabahar. But some U.S. senators have raised questions about whether the deal could violate lingering sanctions against Iran. Testifying to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on May 24, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Nisha Desai Biswal said there have not been any signs of India working with Iran on issues that might raise concerns for the United States.

IRAQ

Retaking Raqqa From the Islamic State

Summary

The battle for Raqqa, the Islamic State's self-declared capital in Syria, has begun. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are advancing toward the city, engaging the jihadist group in the villages of al-Hisha, Tal Samen and Mutamshirij along the way. Because of Raqqa's strategic importance, the Islamic State will do everything in its power to keep the city within its grasp. Driving the militants from their stronghold will not be easy or cheap, but if the SDF is successful, it will greatly accelerate the Islamic State's defeat in Syria...

Iraq: Protesters, Security Forces Clash Again In Baghdad


Security forces used tear gas to try to disperse hundreds of protesters gathered in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on May 27, Alsumaria TV reported. Reports are continuing to emerge from the area, where demonstrators have reportedly tried to once again make their way toward the city's Green Zone. Protesters have breached the heavily guarded area's walls twice in the past month, including on May 20, when four people were killed after security forces used live ammunition to try to push back the crowd. The May 27 demonstration was ostensibly organized to show support for the government's ongoing offensive against the Islamic State in Fallujah, but in all likelihood protesters have turned out for the same reasons they participated in other recent demonstrations: anger over the inability of Iraqi leaders to effectively address corruption or protect the country's population. Hundreds of protesters have also reportedly gathered in the southern city of Basra. In a recent update, the office of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said security forces have brought the situation in the capital city under control. But, as recent history has proven, demonstrations can evolve rapidly in Baghdad.

Iraq: Government Advances In Fallujah Offensive May 25, 2016

Iraqi government forces and allied militias continued to make significant advances in their effort to retake the city of Fallujah from the Islamic State on May 25, Iraqi military and police officials said, Rudaw reported. Military sources said security forces and their allies cleared Islamic State fighters from more than a dozen areas outside the city and have advanced into the city in some places. Reports suggest at least 160 Islamic State militants have been killed in the fighting. The militant group has controlled the city since January 2014.

Offensives Launched in Iraq and Syria

May 27: Offensives Launched in Iraq and Syria

The massive operation to retake the western Iraqi city of Fallujah from Islamic State forces continues. On May 27, the Iraqi Ministry of Defense announced that Iraqi security forces have initiated the operation's second stage. In a statement, the spokesman for Iraq's Joint Military Command said that the second stage would focus on minimizing casualties among Fallujah's residents and that militias would be deployed alongside Iraqi troops.

Shiite militias, with support from Iran, have been vying for greater participation in the fight agains the Islamic State. Washington and other international actors are trying to avoid the outbreak of sectarian clashes during the push for Fallujah — a looming concern across Iraq. The representative of the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic state has said 4,000 Sunni fighters will participate in the fight but maintains that it neither works with nor supports Iraq's Shiite militias. These Shiite forces, however, are already involved in fighting regardless of the U.S. preference. In the operation's first stage, which began on May 22, Sunni and Shiite militias participated separately in clearing villages around the city. Because the second phase will entail fighting in tight, urban areas, Sunni and Shiite militias will be brought into closer proximity. This makes the risk of violence between the nominally aligned sectarian militias much higher, laying the groundwork for future skirmishes.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State has launched an offensive against rebel forces in northern Syria, cutting off access to the towns of Azaz and Mare. The offensive's success has revealed just how ineffective rebel groups backed by Turkey and the United States have become. So far, the rebels have gained little ground in their efforts to drive Islamic State forces out of northern Aleppo province. As the rebels founder, the United States has few alternatives to fall back on in the fight against the Islamic State. As a result, the Syrian Democratic Forces may opt to stage their own campaign. Reports suggest that the group is already preparing for a potential offensive by reinforcing its positions near Manbij.

A US-backed alliance of Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters has begun a campaign to expel Islamic State (IS) militants from land north of Raqqa.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is believed to have deployed about 30,000 fighters.

US-led coalition warplanes will support the offensive and Russia has also given its backing.

The SDF did not mention any plan to take Raqqa, the de facto capital of the "caliphate" proclaimed by IS in 2014.

The alliance, which is dominated by the Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) militia, has emerged as a key ally of the US-led coalition over the past two years, leading the fight against IS on the ground in northern Syria.

With the help of US airpower, it has taken control of about 26,000 sq km (10,000 sq miles) of territory, including a 400km (250 mile) stretch along the Turkish border…

A Political Reunion in Iraqi Kurdistan

The balance of power in Iraqi Kurdistan may be on the brink of change. On Monday, a leading member of the Kurdish Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) announced that his party had reached a preliminary agreement, to be signed on Tuesday, with the Gorran party. According to the deal, the two will merge in parliament and run on a joint ticket during the next elections. Given the stops and starts that define Iraqi Kurdish politics, another agreement between parties may seem like more of the same political jockeying. But the merger stands to make a meaningful impact not only on Iraqi Kurdistan but also on its relations with Turkey and Iran...

The Biggest Obstacle to Iran's Energy Makeover Is Itself

Throughout the first half of the year, Iran's national oil company has been busily signing partnership deals with its international peers to secure its place in future Iranian energy projects. The agreements, the most recent of which was sealed on May 4 with Austria's OMV Group, come at a critical time for Iran's hydrocarbons sector. Over the past decade, the Iranian oil industry languished as Tehran largely shunned outside assistance. But now, in an effort to capitalize on the country's recent nuclear deal with the West and the lifting of sanctions, President Hassan Rouhani is trying to reinvigorate the sector by pumping in foreign cash and expertise

ISRAEL

Avigdor Lieberman named as Israel's defence minister

Avigdor Lieberman and Benjamin Netanyahu signed the coalition deal in parliament
Israel and the Palestinians

The controversial right-wing Israeli politician Avigdor Lieberman has agreed to bring his Yisrael Beitenu party into the country's governing coalition.

The deal, which shores up Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's one-seat majority in parliament, will see Mr Lieberman appointed defence minister.

Mr Lieberman pledged his commitment to "responsible, reasonable policy".

The deal led Moshe Yaalon, a member of Mr Netanyahu's Likud party, to quit as defence minister in protest on Friday.

The former general warned that Israel was being taken over by "dangerous and extreme elements”.

Israel: Airstrikes Target Gaza Strip May 26, 2016

Israel carried out airstrikes against two Hamas sites in the Gaza Strip early May 26 in response to a rocket fired from the Palestinian enclave, Israeli military sources said, Naharnet and AFP reported. Ajnad Beit al-Maqdis, a small Salafist group, claimed responsibility for the rocket fire, which it said targeted an Israeli military base. The rocket reportedly hit an open area, causing no casualties and no damage. Israel has said it holds Hamas responsible for any rocket attacks launched from Gaza. A 2014 conflict between Israel and Hamas resulted in the deaths of more than 70 Israelis and around 2,200 Palestinians.

RUSSIA

The Russian Economic Revolution That Never Was

Russia's economic strategy is in disarray. The government has already cut its federal budget for 2016 twice, and the Kremlin has still not made a final decision on this year's spending. After muddling through two years of economic hardship, government members, silovarchs and technocrats are squabbling over how to escape a prolonged crisis. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin resurrected his Presidium of the Economic Council to come up with a plan for the next three years. The presidium has been dormant for two years. Originally composed of dozens of economists, statesmen and entrepreneurs, the group proved too large and diverse to agree on a future economic and financial strategy for Russia. In its latest iteration, the presidium has shrunk to just six members representing Russia's three primary economic camps.

SYRIA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

Marking a Century of the Modern Middle East

Modern Middle Eastern history is often told to start and end with the 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement, signed a century ago this week. The agreement is credited to British diplomat Sir Mark Sykes and French diplomat Francois Georges-Picot, who led closed-door negotiations after World War I from which a cache of secret correspondence later emerged. And though Sykes-Picot is only one part of Middle Eastern history, it is undeniable that the agreement was a critical one: It laid the framework for many of the boundaries that still define the Middle East today, delineating Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Mandate Palestine and several Arabian Gulf countries. Some of these states have been more successful than others, but all have undergone tumultuous state-building over the past century. While it is commonly recognized that the agreement imposed an idealistic and simplistic postcolonial grid onto a complex region, the boundaries became real soon enough, as citizens and governments in each country began to construct nationalist narratives...

Afghan Taliban announce successor to Mullah Mansour

The new Taliban leader, Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, in an undated photoAfghan Islamic Press via AP

The Afghan Taliban have announced a new leader to replace Mullah Akhtar Mansour who was killed in a US drone strike.

In a statement, the Taliban acknowledged Mansour's death for the first time and named his successor as Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada.

Analysts say it is unlikely the group will change direction under hardline religious scholar Akhundzada.

The Kurds: A People Without a Home

It has been said that the Kurds are a nation without borders, though that is only partly true. They are, of course, citizens of any number of countries, ones that envelop their homeland in the Middle East and ones much farther afield. But for the Kurds — a nation of some 25 million people who, despite their shared culture, speak different languages, practice different religions, subscribe to different political ideologies and hold different passports — citizenship is not such a simple matter…

MISC

Stalkers: When Affection Turns to Rage

By Scott Stewart

Twenty-year-old Japanese pop music star Mayu Tomita was critically injured May 21 when an attacker stabbed her more than 20 times in the head, neck and torso. The assailant was 27-year-old Tomohiro Iwazaki, an obsessed fan reportedly angered that she had returned a gift he had sent her. Following the assault, Iwazaki did not attempt to flee the scene of the crime. When the police arrived, he confessed to attacking Tomita. He had waited for her at a nearby subway station and approached her to ask why she had not kept his gift. When she did not provide a clear answer, he flew into a rage and attacked her.

The Tomita case is a brutal reminder of the very real danger that the mentally disturbed can pose to celebrities, a threat that arguably exceeds the danger posed to celebrities by terrorists. In almost every case where a mentally disturbed individual has attacked a celebrity, the attacker has made prior contact with the eventual target, quite often extensively — providing ample warning signs. When those warning signs are ignored, as it appears they were in the Tomita case, the results can be devastating.

While mentally disturbed stalkers are dangerous as well as hard to deter or divert to other targets, they are vulnerable to detection if they are identified and then sought out as they stalk their victims...

France: Police Raid Google's Paris Office In Tax Fraud Investigation May 24, 2016

French police raided Google's Paris offices May 24 as part of an aggravated tax fraud investigation directed at the company, French authorities said, AP reported. The dawn operation reportedly involved around 100 investigators and 25 information technology experts. According to France's financial prosecutor's office, the inquiry is looking into whether Google Ireland Limited is actually operating out of France and failing to report its activity and to meet fiscal obligations, particularly corporate taxes and value-added taxes. Many U.S. companies base their European operations in countries with low taxes such as Ireland, prompting regulators to push for them to pay taxes in the places in which they actually do business. In a statement, Google said it is cooperating with French investigators and complies fully with French regulations.


Artificial Intelligence Redefines the Labor Force

Google’s AlphaGo program recently defeated the world’s second-ranked player of Go — a vastly more complex game than chess — marking an important milestone in the development of artificial intelligence (AI). But equally important was Google's revelation that one of its robots has developed the ability to pick up objects in ways that had previously only been identified in cognitive life forms. Both advances were brought about by the development of computational models based on the human central nervous system, which is particularly well suited to certain aspects of AI, such as pattern recognition and machine and adaptive learning. Research in this area will have significant implications for geopolitics in the future....

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

K9 Down

Hector

Jimmy

K9 Jimmy
Hialeah Police Department, Florida
End of Watch: Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Breed: Bloodhound
Gender: M

K9 Hector
Hialeah Police Department, Florida
End of Watch: Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Breed: Belgian Malinois
Gender: M
Incident Date: 5/27/2015

K9 Jimmy and K9 Hector died of heat exhaustion after accidentally being left in their handler's vehicle following his shift and a callout to assist a neighboring agency.

Their handler had completed his midnight shift when the other agency requested Jimmy to conduct a track of a critically missing person. Following the search the handler returned home. Approximately nine hour later he discovered that Hector and Jimmy had been left in the back of the department vehicle and were both deceased.

Rest in Peace Hector and Jimmy…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Corruption Most Foul

Fellow Army officer and cop, long time friend and mentor, and fellow opinion writer Mike Ford has asked to publish this. While I'm not the author, I'm dead on in agreement. Your comments, as always, are welcome

There is a foul odor emanating from Northeastern United States. Its epicenter is Chappaqua, NY. However, other locales such as New York City, Washington DC, Charleston, SC and wherever else the Hillary for President campaign happens to be traveling, do their fair share in polluting the atmosphere. That odor is the fetid smell of, in-your-face, arrogant, public corruption.

Public corruption (protection, bribery, bid rigging and the like) is ubiquitous throughout the entire civilized world. Different languages even have their own little colloquialisms for it...Baksheesh (Persian & Arabic), Na Lyeva (Russian), Mordida (Spanish), Under the Table & Kickbacks to name two common American ones.

At its lowest level and while still criminal, some minor amount is tolerated in many places. There is a Sicilian saying, "fari vagnari u pizzu," let someone wet their beak (as in a very small bird), implying such a small amount as to be invisible, kind of like Secretary Kerry's "unbelievably small" airstrikes in Syria. What is tolerated (or possibly not even really considered corrupt) and how much, depends on where you live, the culture there and sometimes even the specific circumstances.

In the United States at one end of the spectrum, we might see a local civil servant expediting an inspection or permit for a friend. While at the other, we see legions of lobbyists using dinners, playoff tickets and campaign donations to gain access to and influence the decisions of politicians.

This can also be seen in post public careers which can be pretty lucrative, often setting the stage for succeeding terms of public service, and at a higher level. This revolving door, in and out of public service is well documented, with long-term Senators going on to well paid lobbying positions, while waiting for the turn of political fortunes to result in their being named to cabinet positions.

Despite the above, adult thinkers understand that for a post Representative, Senate or a Presidential career, there is some sort of expectation of modest remuneration. Most of us can understand and support a position that public officials should not have to live in penury.

Then comes the Clinton family, who by no stretch will ever have to worry about missing a meal. Many of us can remember fairly recently when Mrs Clinton recalled being "dead broke" immediately upon departing the White House. This apparently didn't stop her and the former President from purchasing a house in upscale Chappaqua, NY for 1.7 million that same year.

Post presidency, the Clinton family, Bill, Hillary and Chelsea have traded on the Clinton name in the form of a multimillion dollar foundation and six figure speaking fees, that supported an opulent lifestyle, sheltered income from the IRS and until recently, funded the positioning of Mrs Clinton as a non declared Presidential candidate without involving the Federal Election Commission. Since departing her duties as First Lady, then serving 4 years as President Obama's Secretary of State, and as of 2014, Mrs Clinton has reported a net worth of over 32 million dollars and an annual income of 30.5 million. Does anyone really believe she has legally and ethically provided over 32 million dollars worth of value added to the companies who paid her?

This arrogance isn't limited to financial matters. It also leaches over to official business in the form of the "mishandling" of classified material. In a previous article, I explained in detail, the mechanics of how Top Secret-SCI material likely ended up on Secretary Clinton's server. The Clinton's obviously believe the rules don't apply to them, even with our nation's most closely guarded secrets. In one of her emails being investigated by the FBI, she responded to a complaint that staffers were having trouble sending a secure fax by writing: “If they can’t, turn into nonpaper w no identifying heading and send nonsecure.” This isn't mere "mishandling." This is a deliberate, arrogant attempt to actively subvert the procedures in place to protect classified information.

The level of arrogance and corruption in the Clinton family operations has gone from "acceptable," blown right through "somewhat unseemly," and arrived well in the middle of, "snout down in the trough up to the ears." What's the saddest part of this? There is still a sizable plurality of my beloved republic, this uniquely awesome thing we call, "these United States of America," who in November, would still flip the lever for this lying crone, regardless of her blatant and arrogant corruption.

Officer Down

Special Agent Adrianna Maria Vorderbruggen
United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Monday, December 21, 2015
Age: 36
Tour: 13 years

Special Agent Vorderbruggen had served with the United State Air Force Office of Special Investigations for 13 years. She is survived by her wife and one child.

Special Agent Michael Anthony Cinco
United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Monday, December 21, 2015
Age: 28  

Tour: 4 Years

Special Agent Peter Wagner Taub

United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations, U.S. GovernmentEnd of Watch: Monday, December 21, 2015 

Age: 30

Tour: 2 years

Special Agent Chester J. McBride, III
United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Monday, December 21, 2015
Age: 30
Tour: 3 years



Special Agent Joseph G. Lemm
United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Monday, December 21, 2015
Age: 45
Tour: 27 years

Special Agent Louis Michael Bonacasa
United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Monday, December 21, 2015
Age: 31
Tour: 7 years

Special Agents Joseph Lemm, Louis Bonacasa, Chester McBride, Michael Cinco, Adrianna Vorderbruggen, and Peter Taub were killed by a suicide bomber in a village near Bagram Air Base Afghanistan. Two U.S. Air Force Security Forces airmen who were with them were wounded in the attack.

The agents and airmen were conducting a joint patrol as part of an investigation when the bomber drove a motorcycle into them and detonated the explosives.

Special Agents Lemm and Bonacasa were posthumously promoted to the rank of special agent within the U.S. Air Force Office of Special Investigations.

Rest in Peace…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Officer Down

Trooper Eli M. McCarson
New Jersey State Police, New Jersey
End of Watch: Thursday, December 17, 2015
Age: 30
Tour: 10 months
Badge # 7775

Trooper Eli McCarson was killed in an automobile accident while responding to a domestic violence call.

Trooper McCarson was responding to a domestic violence call and was traveling on Quinton-Alloway Road near Route 49. He was driving in heavy rain when he lost control of the patrol car and struck a utility pole.

Trooper McCarson was taken to The Memorial Hospital of Salem County, where he died from his injuries.

Trooper McCarson had served with the New Jersey State Police for 10 months. He graduated the 155th class of the New Jersey State Police Academy in February 2015.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

China's expanding missile threat...

China is expanding and it's a sobering sight.

China’s ‘Guam Killers’ Threaten U.S. Anchor Base in Pacific


Long-range Chinese missiles are becoming an increasingly acute threat to U.S. military forces on Guam, the island anchor of the American strategic position in the Pacific, according to a new report.

While the weapons probably don’t represent an immediate direct threat, continued advances in range and precision could put the still-expanding U.S. bases on Guam in China’s crosshairs in the event of a big conflict in Asia.

The report, prepared by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and released Tuesday, highlighted advances Beijing’s military has made in bolstering its ability to push U.S. forces farther away from Chinese shores. Those advances include new kinds of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as ships, subs, and bombers that can launch them. The weapons in the Chinese quiver, according to the report, can easily reach Guam, the western-most U.S. territory and home to a naval base, an air base, and regionwide fuel and ammunition depots.

“China’s commitment to continuing to modernize its strike capabilities indicates the risk will likely grow going forward,” the report noted.

Defense experts stress that rapidly improving Chinese strike capabilities pose a particular risk to the Guam garrison, which has been steadily expanded in recent years to give the U.S. military a stand-off base in the Pacific that would be less vulnerable than bases on Okinawa.

“China’s anti-access envelope is still densest over parts of the first island chain,” said Toshi Yoshihara, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, referring to the first line of U.S defense stretching from Okinawa to Taiwan to the Philippines. “But, as China’s reach extends to the second island chain, the fear is that Guam’s sanctuary status could erode over time.”

Granted, many of the ballistic and cruise missiles that China has developed — and the ships and planes that would launch them — are still plagued by some deficiencies that minimize the immediate risk to Guam, the report noted. At longer ranges, it’s harder for China to launch precision strikes, for example. Getting bombers close enough to Guam to launch cruise missiles would be a very tall order, and relatively noisy submarines limit Beijing’s ability to fire off salvos from the sea without being detected.

“All the pieces aren’t in place yet” for China to swamp Guam with its new family of missiles, said Eric Heginbotham, who studies Asian defense at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and who co-wrote a RAND Corp. study last year on China’s military modernization.

But, he noted, one of the weapons is the DF-26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile publicly displayed last fall by Chinese leaders, the first conventional missile in Beijing’s arsenal with the range to reach Guam. Chinese defense analysts have referred to the weapon as the “Guam killer.”

“The DF-26 is real. It’s basically purpose-built to attack Guam,” Heginbotham said. In years to come, other parts of China’s missile arsenal will also likely gain in effectiveness, he said, especially cruise missiles launched from submarines.

China has already made great strides in denying easy U.S. military access to wide swaths of the western Pacific, especially around the South China Sea. Tensions between Beijing and Washington continue to rise over China’s land reclamation of reefs and atolls and deployment of military forces to disputed islets. Overnight Monday, the U.S. Navy deliberately sailed past Fiery Cross Reef, one of China’s claimed atolls, to defend freedom of navigation in the area.

Although the move won plaudits in the Senate, especially from Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), China’s foreign ministry reacted angrily, as it has during previous U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations.

“What the U.S. warship has done threatened China’s sovereignty and security interests,” a foreign ministry representative said Tuesday, “and it jeopardized regional peace and stability.”

And tensions in the western Pacific could rise even further over the next month, when an arbitration panel in The Hague rules on a case of rival territorial claims between the Philippines and China. If, as expected, the court finds much of China’s land grab in the region to be unlawful, it could set up a showdown between the Philippines and like-minded Asian states against China, which refuses to even acknowledge the tribunal’s authority and which has pledged to ignore its ruling.

U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, director for operations at U.S. Pacific Command in Honolulu, told of group of journalists on May 5 that while previous rulings from The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration had generally been adopted, the future of the upcoming ruling was less certain.

“We’ll see what happens in the South China Sea,” Montgomery said. “It may not be quite so consensual.”

Friction with China now seems to be spreading — at least potentially — to the waters of the central Pacific. What’s concerning about China’s apparent longer reach is that it specifically targets Guam, which has become central to the U.S. military’s ability to project power in the region — especially since the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia.

Guam is already home to a stable of nuclear submarines, a rotating host of heavy bombers, and a constantly changing group of fighters. The Pentagon also plans to move thousands of U.S. Marines who are currently on Okinawa to Guam.

The report released Tuesday stressed that Chinese military thinkers and state media see Guam as a “chess piece of the utmost importance” in U.S. military strategy. Indeed, airbases there have played a role in pushing back against recent Chinese adventurism. In 2013, after China declared an air-defense identification zone over the disputed East China Sea, two B-52 bombers from Guam immediately challenged what amounted to a no-fly region imposed by Beijing.

The United States has several options to deal with the growing threat from Chinese missiles, according to Tuesday’s report and outside experts. It can continue to “harden” defenses on Guam to minimize the potential damage from missile strikes. The island already hosts the THAAD missile-defense system, but experts say that is of more use against intercontinental ballistic missiles rather than more numerous, shorter-range missiles that could target the island.

The U.S. Navy is also investing in anti-ship missiles for the first time in decades, reflecting just how seriously Washington takes China’s growing missile arsenal.

Another option for U.S. defense planners is to disperse American forces more widely across the Pacific, rather than concentrating so much on Guam. In recent years, the Pentagon has embraced that idea and has begun to look for runways and ports that could be used by its forces — depriving an adversary of a vulnerable target. The U.S. military has experimented with force dispersal drills, such as the so-called “Rapid Raptor” exercises with F-22 fighters landing on rudimentary airstrips. And recent U.S.-Japan defense guidelines opened the door to more basing agreements, while, after years of distrust, the Philippines recently agreed to allow U.S. forces back in the archipelago.

But scattering forces to protect them from attack also makes them less effective, Heginbotham noted.

“The problem is it’s a much less efficient way to conduct operations, so you’re going to have less combat power at the outset” of any conflict, he said.

Conversation: The Geopolitics of Holy Sites in the Middle East, May 25, 2016

Conversation: The Geopolitics of Holy Sites in the Middle East is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Officer Down

Police Officer III Noah Aaron Leotta
Montgomery County Police Department, Maryland
End of Watch: Thursday, December 10, 2015
Age: 24
Tour: 3 years
Badge # 2747
Incident Date: 12/3/2015

Police Officer Noah Leotta succumbed to injuries sustained on December 3rd, 2015, when he was struck by a drunk driver near the intersection of Rockville Pike and Edmonston Drive.

He was conducting a traffic stop on Rockville Pike at approximately 9:45 pm while working a special assignment on the agency's Holiday Alcohol Task Force. He had contacted the driver and was getting back into his patrol car when a second vehicle struck his patrol car and then struck him.

Officer Leotta was transported to Suburban Hospital where he remained on life support until passing away on December 10th, 2015.

The driver of the vehicle that struck him was held on suspicious of drunk driving with additional charges pending.

Officer Leotta had served with the Montgomery County Police Department for almost three years. He is survived by his parents and sister.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

K9 Down

K9 Bella
Maryland Division of Correction, Maryland
End of Watch: Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Gender: F

K9 Bella died in a vehicle fire while being transported to the Western Correctional Institute in Cresaptown, Maryland.

Two handlers were taking Bella and a second canine to the facility when their department vehicle caught fire as they drove along I-68, near 15 Mile Creek, in Flintstone, Maryland. The officers were able to stop the vehicle and free one of the canines, but were unable to free Bella as the vehicle became fully engulfed in flames.

Rest in Peace Bella…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Rap shows what it really is

I've often said "rap artist" is a worse oxymoron than "military intelligence," and being a retired MI officer, that's saying something. But it's like the old saying about lawyers, "The 99% out there make the 1% look bad."

A generation ago a singer by the name "Ice-T" put out a "song" called Cop Killer and to put it politely is wasn't received well in the law enforcement community. Then again if an "artist" had put out a song and video about the murder of blacks or other minorities it would have not seen the light of day back in the late 90s. But Warner-Brothers put out this "music" for the young people of America to buy and listen to.

Being the activist that Hollyweird doesn't like, aka a real American, Charlton Heston took some action. He went to a stockholder's meeting and read out the lyrics to this "music." To say the least, the board members of Warner Brothers were a little embarrassed. As Heston put it,

A few years ago, I heard about a -- a rapper named Ice-T who was selling a CD called "Cop Killer," celebrating the ambushing and of murdering police officers. It was being marketed by none other than Time/Warner, the biggest entertainment conglomerate in the country -- in the world. Police across the country were outraged. And rightfully so. At least one of them had been murdered. But Time/Warner was stonewalling because the -- the CD was a cash cow for them, and the media were tiptoeing around because the rapper was black. I heard Time/Warner had a stockholders meeting scheduled in Beverly Hills, and I owned some shares of Time/Warner at the time, so I decided to attend the meeting.

What I did was against the advice of my family and my colleagues. I asked for the floor. To a hushed room of a thousand average American stockholders, I simply read the full lyrics of "Cop Killer" -- every vicious, vulgar, instructional word: I got my 12-Gauge sawed-off. I got my headlights turned off. I'm about to bust some shots off. I'm about to dust some cops off.

It got worse, a lot worse. Now, I won't read the rest of it to you. But trust me, the room was a sea of shocked, frozen, blanched faces. Time/Warner executives squirmed in their chairs and stared at their shoes. They hated me for that. Then I delivered another volley of sick lyrics brimming with racist filth, where Ice-T fantasizes about sodomizing the two 12-year-old nieces of Al and Tipper Gore: She pushed her butt against my --

No. No, I won't do to you here what I did to them. Let's just say I left the room in stunned silence. When I read the lyrics to the waiting press corps outside, one of them said, "We can't print that, you know." "I know," I said, "but Time/Warner is still selling it."

Two months later, Time/Warner terminated Ice-T's contract. I'll never be offered another film by Warner Brothers, or get a good review from Time magazine. But disobedience means you have to be willing to act, not just talk.

To let you know what he was talking about, here it is.

WARNING: LANGUAGE:

Cop killer, yeah!

I got my black shirt on
I got my black gloves on
I got my ski mask on
This shit's been too long
I got my twelve gauge sawed off
I got my headlights turned off
I'm 'bout to bust some shots off
I'm 'bout to dust some cops off

I'm a cop killer, better you than me
Cop killer, fuck police brutality!
Cop killer, I know your family's grieving
(Fuck 'em!)
Cop killer, but tonight we get even, ha ha

I got my brain on hype
Tonight'll be your night
I got this long-assed knife
And your neck looks just right
My adrenaline's pumpin'
I got my stereo bumpin'
I'm 'bout to kill me somethin'
A pig stopped me for nuthin'!

Cop killer, better you than me
Cop killer, fuck police brutality!
Cop killer, I know your momma's grieving
(Fuck her!)
Cop killer, but tonight we get even, yeah!

Die, die, die, pig, die!

Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!

Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Yeah!

Cop killer, better you than me.
I'm a COP KILLER, fuck police brutality!
Cop killer, I know your family's grieving
(Fuck 'em!)
Cop killer, but tonight we get even, ha ha ha ha, yeah!

Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!

Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Fuck the police!
Break it down

Fuck the police, yeah!
Fuck the police, for Darryl Gates
Fuck the police, for Rodney King
Fuck the police, for my dead homies
Fuck the police, for your freedom
Fuck the police, don't be a pussy
Fuck the police, have some muthafuckin' courage
Fuck the police, sing along

Cop killer!
Cop killer!
Cop killer!
Cop killer!

Cop killer! Whaddyou wanna be when you grow up?
Cop killer! Good choice
Cop killer! I'm a muthafuckin'
Cop killer!

Cop killer, better you than me
Cop killer, fuck police brutality!
Cop killer, I know your momma's grieving
(Fuck her!)
Cop killer, but tonight we get even!

Well after two years of the B Hussein Obama "Just-Us" department trying to stir up race and police hatred, we have another "rap artist" having another go at it. He is his video, and the lyrics:

I'm in the booth bruh, gimme, gimme five minutes

Pump your black fist, pump your black fist
Pump your black fist, pump your black fist
Pump your black fist, pump your black fist
Pump your black fist, pump your black fist

These crackers got drones, they flying their saucers
Keep your white Jesus, go pray to your crosses
They burning our churches, quick, pass me the uzi
I know how to work it, I know how to squirt it
No Martin, no Luther, no King
No marching, no choirs don't sing
The same Christian lovers that raped our grandmothers
And hung our grandfathers from trees
They enemies, blood on the leaves
Blood on the streets, blood on our feet
I'm sick of walking, sick of dogs getting [?] barking
I'm sick of spitting [?]
Don't [?], don't [?], don't [?], don't [?]
Because they got chains on they brains
And that ain't no diss, shout out to Tit'

Pump your black fist, pump your black fist
Pump your black fist, pump your black fist
Pump your black fist, pump your black fist
Pump your black fist, pump your black fist

I ain't African, I'm Ethiopian
Put them raw seeds in the fallopians
You can hope I win or hope I lose
Bitch, long as we made it trill I hope again
I hope I get into Heaven, I hope we forgiven
I hope Jesus, far as I know look like [?]
When I see floor [?] them Chevy's I weigh in them 6's
I'm staying religious, but we stay in the trenches
You got to play with they lynches then came to my senses
I bet them crackers never came through my fences
You burn up your cross and I burn up your corpse
And I turn and bang and do the same to the witness
Hang 'em and dangle 'em in the street lookin' up at his feet
So you never forget this, we did this
For Martin and Malcolm, even Mandela
Jimmy Lee Jackson and them nigga Elvis
For Clyde Kennard, hard labour slaving in the yard
For Huey, for Hampton, for Bobby, we godly
For Jordan Davis we gon' play this for Sandra Bland
We gon' stand I'm still out and stompin' for Janaya Thompson
It's Lo'

This is what passes for "art" today.  And with today's technology, it really can't be stopped.

In the recent uproar over Beyonce and her anti-cop video, many police officers and organizations have publicly refused to work extra employment for it.  Simple point, no publicity is bad publicity and she is working this well.  I've said do this quietly, just refuse to work the detail.  If you are assigned as part of your regular duty, do your job but go no further.

But I hope this has ran its course, although I know this will not happen until after the B Hussein Obamaites have been purged from the Justice Department will the war on police slow down.

Be safe out there guys.

Officer Down

Police Officer Lloyd E. Reed, Jr.
St. Clair Township Police Department, Pennsylvania
End of Watch: Saturday, November 28, 2015
Age: 54
Tour: 25 years
Badge # 3

Police Officer Lloyd Reed was shot and killed while responding to a domestic disturbance call at a home at 131 Ligonier Street, in New Florence.

He was fatally shot by the subject as he arrived at the location. Despite being wounded, Officer Reed was able to return fire and wounded the subject. The man fled the scene but was arrested by members of the Pennsylvania State Police approximately six hours later suffering a gunshot wound in the shoulder.

Officer Reed was transported to Conemaugh Memorial Medical Center where he was pronounced dead.

Officer Reed had served with the St. Clair Township Police Department for five years. He had previously served with the Seven Springs Borough Police Department, Hooversville Borough Police Department, and Seward Borough Police Department for a combined total of 25 years. He is survived by his wife.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Korean Nuclear Program

I remember Bubba saying his negotiated nuke deal was all the s$%^.

Well, he was right, it was s$%^. Not worth the paper it was written on. STRATFOR has a series on the North Korean nuclear weapons program (wait, they said they would give that up...)

Assessing the North Korean HazardSummary 

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a five-part series examining the measures that could be taken to inhibit North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The purpose of this series is not to consider political rhetoric or noninvasive means of coercion, such as sanctions. Rather, we are exploring the military options, however remote, that are open to the United States and its allies, along with the expected retaliatory response from Pyongyang. Part two of this series looks at what targets would need to be struck to derail the North Korean nuclear program.  

Few countries intrigue and perplex like the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Isolated by choice from the ebbs and flows of the international system, North Korea is an island of its own making. It is often painted as a weak, fearsome lunatic with delusions of grandeur and aspirations to become a nuclear power, but the truth is a little more complicated. Despite outward appearances, Pyongyang is not reckless in its ambition. 

Nor does it foolhardily invite destruction. It walks a fine line, hoping to quietly attain a credible nuclear deterrent without inciting world powers to take decisive action.
Deterrence has always been a part of North Korea's survival strategy. Pyongyang's calculated disarray is primarily for the benefit of potential aggressors, advising caution should provocation lead to a disproportionate response. Thriving on contradiction, Pyongyang simultaneously depicts itself as fragile to the point of collapse yet immeasurably strong. This act has served the Kim dynasty well, gaining concessions from major powers that normally would not have been afforded.

North Korea has a good read on the world's inability and unwillingness to respond, not only because of upcoming U.S. elections but also because of the risk of pre-emption: Pyongyang's conventional deterrent raises the cost of intervention far higher than it is at most other places. The window for a military option to stem Pyongyang's nuclear program is closing, but that does not necessarily mean a strike is more likely now than before. Still, the balance is delicate, and should Pyongyang overplay its hand, the repercussions could be catastrophic. 

Analysis 

North Korea's biggest fear is to be coerced into a position of subservience, having to prostrate itself before China (its primary benefactor) or another powerful country. Its carefully curated image of aggressive unpredictability is intended to preserve its authoritarian and regulated society and, as a result, its isolation. The North is unlikely to expose itself to the international community unless it can guarantee two things: the primacy and security of its leaders, and an effective military deterrent. And there are few deterrents as effective as nuclear weapons. Pyongyang's unswerving progress toward developing a nuclear capability reflects the singular obsession with which it chases its goals and why the West takes its threats seriously.
Security and longevity have always been at the forefront of Pyongyang's reasoning. In the immediate aftermath of World War II, the Korean Peninsula was divided into its constituent parts, sandwiching a Russian-backed northern Korean administration between mainland China and the U.S. Army Military Government in Korea to the south. North Korea flourished during the Cold War, maintaining strong connections with the rest of the communist bloc. Until the 1970s, North Korea was more prosperous than the South. Things changed, however, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. 

As Cold War structures crumbled around the North and its defense partners became less viable, Pyongyang realized it had to adapt to survive, especially in the face of a burgeoning South Korea. Beyond an asymmetric approach to defense — including assassination attempts, high-profile kidnappings, bombings and subterranean excavations — North Korean began pursuing other options to safeguard its existence. It soon realized that a fledgling nuclear program provided a weighty bargaining chip. Transitions of power within the ruling Kim family served to make Pyongyang only more insular and unpredictable. The Inter-Korean Summit in 2000 led to a reduction of provocation across the peninsula, but Pyongyang's imperatives remained unchanged.
Being branded a rogue state by the United States did little to dampen the flame of juche, the ideology installed by Kim Il Sung and the epitome of Korean self-reliance. Juche effectively calls for North Korea to stand alone economically, militarily and on the world stage. North Korea began to act up again in 2010, in advance of another transition of power within the Kim family, sinking a South Korean naval vessel and launching artillery at a prominent border island. Then in 2013, the country threatened once more to withdraw from the 1953 Armistice Agreement. Under Kim Jong Un's tenure, North Korea has prioritized strategic weaponry over all else. Despite widespread condemnation from the international community, Pyongyang has actually accelerated its nuclear weapons program, for it sees a credible nuclear arsenal as the only guarantor against Western-imposed regime change. 

A Generational Congress 

All eyes were on North Korea for its 7th Workers' Party Congress at the beginning of May, the first such meeting in more than 35 years. It was also the first time Western journalists were invited en masse to attend, albeit with strict limitations and the ever-present threat of deportation. The congress served many purposes, not least of which was to consolidate and institutionalize Kim Jong Un's rule and move away from the informal lines of command and political fiefdoms that developed under the rule of his father. Shedding his previous title of first secretary, Kim was introduced as party chairman for the first time. 

During his address on May 7, Kim was quick to point out the advances made by the country's nuclear weapons and missile programs. He singled out Pyongyang's burgeoning nuclear capability as the protective layer that will enable economic development, a concept known as byungjin. But considering that North Korea's nuclear aspirations have saddled the country with economic sanctions, the statement appears somewhat ironic. That said, the announcement of a five-year economic plan is telling: Kim is accepting the kind of responsibility once shouldered by his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, and solidifying his primacy at the head of the people's republic. 

Pyongyang is optimistic to consider itself a nuclear power. A variety of tests and launches indicate that North Korea is assembling the constituent parts of a re-entry vehicle, but nothing decisively suggests that it has a fully functional nuclear ballistic missile. The country's fourth successful underground nuclear test was conducted Jan. 6, followed a month later by a satellite launch into orbit. This was trailed by ground tests of a rocket nose cone capable of withstanding atmospheric re-entry. Meanwhile, North Korean scientists proceeded with the controlled ignition of a solid rocket engine and, allegedly, the development of a miniaturized nuclear warhead.On top of these nuclear stepping-stones were a number of ballistic missile tests, including the use of mobile land-based platforms and submarine launches, the latter theoretically within strike range of Guam and Japan. Though these tests included some failures — most notably three successive failures of the Musudan mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile system — they demonstrate clear progress in developing most of the individual segments of a viable nuclear deterrent. And North Korea's intent is to keep progressing until Pyongyang has a survivable weapon it can launch at short notice that will deliver a nuclear payload to the continental United States. 

In response, efforts by the international community seeking denuclearization of North Korea are falling short. Pyongyang's position is deliberately opaque, primarily because it is beneficial to keep the West uncertain as to North Korea's true capabilities. If the missile program's well-publicized failures can nonetheless create enough doubt in the minds of U.S. policymakers, it might be enough to defer any possible strike. If success is not assured in North Korea's nuclear program, is direct action justifiable? Yet, North Korea is coming late to the nuclear game, and the technologies it is pursuing are already decades old. For many strategists and speculators alike, it is simply a case of when, not if. The key question then becomes: Can the United States afford to let Pyongyang cross the nuclear Rubicon? If the answer is no, then consideration must be given to the ways in which countries opposing North Korea, primarily the United States and South Korea, will use military force to neuter the nuclear program and impose compliance. The threat alone might be impetus enough for Pyongyang to take the final steps, as Stratfor's expert on North Korea, Rodger Baker, considers: 

As Pyongyang approaches a viable nuclear weapon and delivery system, the pressure is rising for the United States and other countries to pre-empt it. Consequently, the final moments of North Korea's transition from a working program to a demonstrated system are the most dangerous, providing a last chance to stop the country from becoming a nuclear weapons state. For North Korea, then, these final steps must happen quickly. Because 2016 is a presidential election year in the United States, Pyongyang may feel it has a window to finalize its nuclear arms program while the United States is preoccupied with domestic politics and unlikely to take military action. Furthermore, having just held parliamentary elections and facing a presidential contest in 2017, South Korea, too, is in the midst of political transition. North Korea is making a gamble, one that bets both on its read of U.S. politics and on its own ability to overcome technological hurdles.
This is the cost calculation faced by policymakers in the United States and South Korea as they consider a political decision that could lead to military action. The United States is the singular military power that has both the intent and the capability to conduct such an operation and would naturally take the lead. Washington has also been branded a target for North Korean aggression, along with Seoul and Tokyo. 

In the coming installments, we will examine the options available to the United States and its allies should they decide to act militarily against North Korea. We will also consider, in turn, the nature of any retaliation or counterstrike by Pyongyang. The focus here is on offensive action rather than diplomacy, though it is important to note that Washington does not make decisions lightly or in isolation. Though political will must drive military intent, the opportune time for offensive action is rapidly running out. This, theoretically, makes the final stages of Pyongyang's nuclear program the most risky — it is clear the North is nearing the final steps, and once it has a viable nuclear weapon, it is too late for Washington to intervene. These are the waning moments for any practical intervention. In light of this, the second part of this series will examine what targets would need to be struck if the United States chooses to take action. 

Assessing the North Korean Hazard is republished with permission of Stratfor.