If you haven't checked out Sherlock, do yourself a favor and do it. Quite good. Amazing what you can do with good plot and writing.
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USA
Emerging Market Turmoil and the U.S. Taper">
January 30, NBC News – (Montana) 92 nuclear missile officers implicated in cheating scandal, Air Force says. A U.S. Air Force official stated January 30 that the number of nuclear missile launch officers under investigation for allegedly cheating or being aware of the cheating on an important proficiency exam rose at the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana from 34 to 92.
AFRICA
Exclusive: General says more Marines could be based throughout Africa
Marine units that specialize in crisis response could be based in Africa in coming years as military leaders work with host nations that have shown interest in the U.S. posturing troops in their countries, according to a top general in the region.
Lt. Gen. Steven Hummer, deputy to the commander for military operations in U.S. Africa Command, said these units would likely be similar to the Special-Purpose Marine-Air Ground Task Force Crisis Response based at Morón Air Base in Spain, which stood up in 2013.
“There’s quite a reach from Morón to get to [certain African countries], depending on the operational aircraft,” Hummer told Marine Corps Times. “As we look at the future of the environment around the world, and the fiscal challenges impeding the number of ships we would like to have, there’s a balancing act we have to achieve between MAGTFs aboard ships and MAGTFs ashore, where they can respond to indications and warnings.”
The units likely would be a hybrid between the crisis response force and a second Marine unit that operates in the region — SPMAGTF Africa, which is based at Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy. Those Marines conduct training with local militaries that are dealing with terrorism or other threats to security.
“A crisis response force, that could be their primary mission,” Hummer said. “But they could also be doing theater security cooperation training with militaries on the continent. They could participate in exercises, all the while — as we craft these — continuing to develop their skills and readiness toward crisis response.”
Both SPMAGTFs are land-based expeditionary units capable of operating without naval ships. That has become increasingly important as budgetary restrictions mean there are fewer amphibious ships at sea. And, of course, both task forces have built-in command, ground, aviation and logistics elements....
Kenya: Clashes Continue In Mombasa February 3, 2014
Clashes continued for a second day in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa, Al Jazeera reported Feb. 3. Muslim youths protesting a police raid on a mosque in Mombasa threw rocks and shouted, "Release our brothers," referring to those arrested after clashes on Feb. 2. Police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at the protesters
Yemen: British Oil Worker Kidnapped February 3, 2014
A British citizen working in the oil sector was kidnapped in a tightly patrolled district of Sanaa on Feb. 3, AFP reported. This is the second abduction of a foreign citizen since Jan. 31.
ASIA
The Ukrainian Government Faces Pressure At Home and Abroad, Despite Making Concessions
The Limits of Turkey's Interest Rate Hike
Vietnam's Energy Sources
Instability and Legal Challenges Will Follow Thailand's Elections
In Moldova, Gagauzia's Referendum Illustrates the EU-Russian Struggle
Moldova's Separatist Regions
EUROPE
Europe's Evolving Terrorist Landscape
The European Union Slows Its Renewable Energy Push
Spurred by Global Crises, Germany Weighs a More Muscular Foreign Policy
MUNICH — German leaders are pushing a vigorous new case that it is time for their nation to find a more muscular voice in foreign affairs, even suggesting that Germany should no longer reflexively avoid some military deployments, as it did in Libya almost three years ago.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has yet to weigh in on the use of the military, and it is not clear how willing the German public is to embrace a more assertive posture. But a variety of senior officials are urging a rethinking of the country’s assumptions about its diplomatic and military role. They are driven partly by alarm about crises from Ukraine to Africa, but also by unease about the strength of Germany’s partnership with the United States after revelations of American spying, and about American officials’ increasing reluctance to take the lead in interventions.
President Joachim Gauck sent the strongest signal yet of a possible change in direction with a speech late Friday at the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering that attracts an array of world leaders and defense experts and has historically been a forum for sharp policy debates.
Germany’s Nazi and Communist pasts are no excuse for ducking international duties, Mr. Gauck said. He argued that the current Germany — “the best we have ever known,” he said — was well established as a democracy and as a reliable partner and ally, and that it should step out “earlier, more decisively and more substantially” on the world stage.
MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA
A Balanced Resolution to Chile and Peru's Maritime Dispute
AFGHANISTAN
Karzai Arranged Secret Contacts With the Taliban
President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has refused to sign a deal he brokered for security after Western troops leave. Mauricio Lima for The New York Times
KABUL, Afghanistan — President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has been engaged in secret contacts with the Taliban about reaching a peace agreement without the involvement of his American and Western allies, further corroding already strained relations with the United States.
The secret contacts appear to help explain a string of actions by Mr. Karzai that seem intended to antagonize his American backers, Western and Afghan officials said. In recent weeks, Mr. Karzai has continued to refuse to sign a long-term security agreement with Washington that he negotiated, insisted on releasing hardened Taliban militants from prison and distributed distorted evidence of what he called American war crimes.
The clandestine contacts with the Taliban have borne little fruit, according to people who have been told about them. But they have helped undermine the remaining confidence between the United States and Mr. Karzai, making the already messy endgame of the Afghan conflict even more volatile. Support for the war effort in Congress has deteriorated sharply, and American officials say they are uncertain whether they can maintain even minimal security cooperation with Mr. Karzai’s government or its successor after coming elections....
CHINA
China: No Air Defense Identification Zone Planned Over South China Sea February 3, 2014
China dismissed Japanese media reports that Beijing would set up an Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea, CCTV reported Feb. 3. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed optimism about the regional situation and relations with the ASEAN countries in the South China Sea, but said that China had a right to set up Air Defense Identification Zones without criticism from other countries.
NIGHTWATCH 140204
China: A Chinese news outlet carried an item that purported to refute a Japanese news report that China intends to establish an air defense identification zone over the South China Sea and that planning began in May 2013.
"China on Saturday dismissed allegations by some Japanese reports that it is to set up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea and expressed optimism over the regional situation."
" 'In a general view, the Chinese side has yet to feel any air security threat from the ASEAN countries and is optimistic about its relations with the neighboring countries and the general situation in the South China Sea region,' Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hong Lei said in a press release Saturday."
"…Hong said the right-wing forces of Japan have repeatedly clamored about the alleged plan of China to set up an ADIZ over the South China Sea. He said this move is of ulterior motive and simply aimed to shift international attention from and cover up the plot to change Japan's pacifist constitution and expand its military power (sic)."
"'We sternly warned these forces not to mislead public opinions with rumors and play up tensions for their own selfish benefit,' Hong said.'
Comment: A careful review of Chinese statements last year about establishing these zones discloses an unambiguous intention to establish additional zones as necessary and when careful preparations are complete. China's dismissal of the Japanese reports is not a denial of intent, only of timing. It also is not an accurate statement of China's analysis of the threat from Southeast Asian air forces.
It simply restates that China claims to perceive no threat at this time. In other words, the Foreign Ministry spokesman affirmed China's right to establish a zone, just not yet. It also ignores or deliberately insults the capabilities of Vietnam and other nations to provide air cover for their South China Sea claims.
Effective air defense coverage of the South China Sea is a daunting technological, surveillance and military capabilities challenge for any nation. China has not declared an ADIZ over the South China Sea because it can't enforce it. It has even less capability to enforce and ADIZ there than it does over the East China Sea.
Japan Air Self-Defense Forces and the South Korean air force ignore China's ADIZ at will. The East China Sea ADIZ resulted in a loss of face for China before several of the most capable air forces in the world
China to Ramp Up Military Spending
Zha Chunming/Xinhua, via Associated Press Chinese sailors stand at attention on the deck of the aircraft carrier Liaoning in the northeastern port of Dalian.
China already spends more on its military than any country in the world except the United States. Now, as defense budgets at the Pentagon and in many NATO countries shrink, China’s People’s Liberation Army is gearing up for a surge in new funding, according to a new report.
China will spend $148 billion on its military this year, up from $139.2 billion in 2013, according to IHS Jane’s, a defense industry consulting and analysis company. The United States spends far more – a forecast $574.9 billion this year – but that is down from $664.3 billion in 2012 after budget cuts slashed spending. By next year China will spend more on defense than Britain, Germany and France combined, according to IHS. By 2024, it will spend more than all of Western Europe, it estimates.
The surge in weapons spending by Beijing – military outlays this year are set to be a third higher than in 2009 – has come in tandem with an escalation in tensions with its neighbors over longstanding territorial disputes. Vietnam and the Philippines have overlapping claims with China to islands and shoals in the South China Sea. Japan and China have been at loggerheads over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.
The extra spending has bought some flashy hardware. In 2012 China commissioned its first aircraft carrier – the Liaoning – built from the hull of an uncompleted ship ordered by the Soviet navy in the 1980s. In 2011 a Chinese-made aircraft with stealth radar-evading capabilities flew on a test flight as Robert M. Gates, then the United States defense secretary, was in Beijing on an official visit...
IRAN
The Meaning of Iran
IRAQ
Battle Lines Drawn in Iraq’s Anbar Province
Geopoliticalmonitor.com
Since the New Year, Iraq’s Anbar province has been wracked with violence as tribal militias, Iraqi government forces, and the al-Qaeda inspired Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) have fought for control of key cities in the region.
Though the causes behind this current round of violence are multi-faceted, its outbreak can roughly be traced to December 28, when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dispatched troops to Ramadi to arrest Ahmed al-Alwani, an MP in the Iraqi Parliament.
Al-Alwani is a Sunni politician with ties to an Anbar-based protest movement against the al-Malaki government, which protesters accuse of unfairly targeting its Sunni political opponents. The movement has decried the mass imprisonment of political prisoners, suspect executions under Iraq’s controversial Article 4 of the Terror Law, and Sunni expulsions at the hands of government-sanctioned militias. Al-Alwani acted as the group's voice in parliament, and it follows that he was likely targeted in an effort to stem criticism towards what many Sunnis believe to be an increasingly authoritarian and sectarian prime minister.
These events corresponded with a substantial increase in activity from the Anbar-based ISIS – an al-Qaeda affiliated militant group formed during the US occupation of Iraq. Owing to its involvement in the Syrian civil war, recruitment and funding have spiked through 2013, allowing it to carry out more sophisticated bombing campaigns in Baghdad and Shiite strongholds in Iraq.
As military presence was stepped up in Anbar in response to Sunni protests, ISIS seized an opportunity to carry out a string of ambushes and attacks on army patrols, notably on December 21 when an ISIS attack killed the commander of the 7th Iraqi Army Division, along with 23 other officers. This incident served as a pretence for the Iraqi government’s late December military operation, which was ostensibly aimed at driving al-Qaeda from the west of the province.
However, Prime Minister al-Maliki, unable to resist the temptation to tackle other political problems, branded the Ramadi protest camp an ISIS base, dispatching the heavily-armed Iraqi security services to force it to disband. Tribal leaders supporting the protest movement, such as Sheikh al-Saadi, had already warned Maliki that any government attempt to clear the camp would be met by force of arms...
ISRAEL
Israel: $20 Million Offered To Turkey Flotilla Victims February 3, 2014
The Israeli government offered $20 million in compensation to the families of those killed in the 2010 raid on a Turkish flotilla bound for Gaza, Haaretz reported Feb. 3. Turkey has not yet responded to the offer, unnamed Western diplomats said. Although relations will take a while to return to normal, there is significant incentive for both countries to want a resolution.
RUSSIA
Types of Regional Debt in Russia
SYRIADeath toll rises to 119 killed in Aleppo after barrel bomb attacks
Syrian government helicopters and warplanes unleashed a wave of airstrikes on more than a dozen opposition-held neighborhoods in the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday, activists said, bringing the death toll to at least 119 people killed in the latest episode of a campaign many consider a war crime.
Aleppo has been a key battleground in Syria's civil war since rebels swept into the city in mid-2012 and wrested most of the eastern and southern neighborhoods from the government. Since then, the fighting has settled into a bloody grind, with neither side capable of mounting an offensive that would expel its opponents from the city.
But over the past two months, President Bashar al-Assad's air force has ramped up its aerial campaign on rebel-held areas of Aleppo, pounding them with barrel bombs - containers packed with explosives, fuel and scraps of metal - that cause massive damage on impact.
On Sunday alone, Syrian military aircraft targeted 15 opposition-controlled neighborhoods, said an activist who goes by the name of Abu al-Hassan Marea, according to The Associated Press.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said the Tariq al-Bab district on the eastern edge of the city was the hardest-hit, with at least eight barrel bombs raining down on it Sunday. Marea said one of the air raids in the neighborhood struck a vegetable market and another landed near a mosque....
MIDDLE EAST GENERAL
A flood of new weapons -- from Iran to Saudi Arabia -- is dangerously changing the military dynamic in the Middle East.
Weapons are pouring into the Middle East at an unprecedented rate. The Pentagon recently announced that it would sell six tilt-rotor Osprey aircraft to Israel for $1.3 billion, American hardware (including Apache helicopters) is being rushed to the Iraqi government to help in its battle against al Qaeda, and Washington has also restored military aid to Egypt after a brief hiatus. But Uncle Sam isn't the only one delivering weapons to the region: Hezbollah has acquired parts of Russia's supersonic Yakhont missiles, which can strike vessels more than 75 miles off the coast of Lebanon, and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad continues to receive significant stockpiles of weapons from both Moscow and Tehran.
These may appear to be piecemeal acquisitions, but these and other new weapons are actively changing the military dynamic in the Middle East...
...Non-state actors are more dangerous than ever.
Hezbollah and Hamas have a combined total of more than 60,000 missiles and rockets -- three times more than they had after the 2006 Lebanon war. That's probably more than Israel's missile defense systems, such as Iron Dome, can handle, meaning that Israeli civilians will once again be at risk in the event of another war with Lebanon or Hamas.
Hezbollah and Hamas's military advances can't solely be understood by the quantity of their weapons. The quality of their equipment is also improving: Hezbollah has reportedly received advanced anti-ship missiles smuggled from Syria into Lebanon, while Hamas has gotten its hands on man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) smuggled in from Libya.
Drones are not just for America and Amazon.
Turkey has them, as do Israel, Morocco, the UAE, and Iran -- and Tehran claims that its drones are reverse-engineered from a crashed American UAV. Baghdad is next: This spring, the Iraqi military will receive 10 ScanEagle drones, which Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government claims it needs to counter a rising al Qaeda threat.
It is only a matter of time before other countries and non-state actors acquire this technology, which only a few years ago was reserved for elite Western militaries. Hezbollah has already started to explore the vulnerabilities that drones may expose in Israel's security -- and once armed drones enter the Middle East, it could change the military landscape entirely.
Iraq is rearming.
Washington is investing heavily in its military ties with Baghdad, delivering an estimated $8 billion in weapons and related services since 2005. And the weapons sales have only increased in recent days: In addition to the 10 ScanEagle drones -- which cost roughly $100,000 apiece -- Baghdad received a shipment of 75 Hellfire missiles, which go for about $70,000 a pop.
These weapons are needed to help restore some semblance of order in the embattled Anbar province, which is now witnessing an al Qaeda resurgence. But even as Washington appears happy to sell Baghdad this advanced weaponry, there are signs the Iraqis are unprepared to use it on their own: According to the New York Times, the Hellfires will be "strapped beneath the wings of small Cessna turboprop planes, and fired at militant camps with the CIA secretly providing targeting assistance."
Such growing pains aside, it's only a matter of time before the Iraqi military gets its act together. And that is now a concern for Washington's lawmakers, who worry that the new Iraqi government has become an Iranian ally -- if not its proxy. Even if Iraq is now fighting al Qaeda, many on Capitol Hill are deeply ambivalent about handing Baghdad its most potent hardware. Notably, lawmakers have hit the brakes on plans to deliver Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters and Boeing AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to Baghdad.
Turkey has a burgeoning arms industry.
This summer, officials from the ruling A.K. Party complained that the U.S. arms industry was the root of all evil. It was responsible, they said, for starting a long list of wars or failing to end others -- the implication was that America was willing to let the Middle East bleed if it meant its defense contractors could make a buck. But it's now Ankara that's building its very own military-industrial complex: Our research shows that Turkey's defense industry -- while still modest when compared to Washington's -- is growing at an impressive clip.
The Turks used to rely on Western-built equipment, but are now opting for domestically developed battle tanks, drones, and attack helicopters. They are also modernizing what they purchase, such as German-built Leopard tanks. Moreover, they are contributing to the production of the F-35 jet, an aircraft both Ankara and Jerusalem are planning to use as their primary fighters in the future.
Saudi Arabia is on a shopping spree.
The Saudis are opening their checkbooks for high-end Western military equipment. The Saudi defense budget, the seventh largest in the world, has increased by 111 percent between 2003 and 2012. The build-up is designed to deter new threats originating out of Iran -- not Israel, for a change.
And Riyadh's buying spree doesn't show any signs of trailing off in the years ahead -- particularly when it comes to air power. The Saudis are now waiting on orders for the first-rate Typhoon and F-15 fighters from Britain and the United States, and they are modernizing their existing F-15 and Tornado fleet.
The Israeli Air Force, by contrast, relies on F-15 and F-16 fighters that are more than a decade old, even with some spiffy modifications. In other words, for Israel, its vaunted qualitative edge in the air may now be diminishing.
There is a huge amount of data to comb through, which means that our conclusions come with a good number of caveats. But the message is clear: The balance of power in the Middle East is getting increasingly difficult to determine, and the changes rocking the region will not make it easier any time soon.
Libya’s Cache of Toxic Arms All Destroyed
WASHINGTON — Even as the international effort to destroy Syria’s vast chemical weapons stockpile lags behind schedule, a similar American-backed campaign carried out under a cloak of secrecy ended successfully last week in another strife-torn country, Libya.
The United States and Libya in the past three months have discreetly destroyed what both sides say were the last remnants of Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi’s lethal arsenal of chemical arms. They used a transportable oven technology to destroy hundreds of bombs and artillery rounds filled with deadly mustard agent, which American officials had feared could fall into the hands of terrorists. The effort also helped inspire the use of the technology in the much bigger disposal plan in Syria.
Since November, Libyan contractors trained in Germany and Sweden have worked in bulky hazmat suits at a tightly guarded site in a remote corner of the Libyan desert, 400 miles southeast of Tripoli, racing to destroy the weapons in a region where extremists linked to Al Qaeda are gaining greater influence. The last artillery shell was destroyed on Jan. 26, officials said.
As Libya’s weak central government grapples with turmoil and unrest, and as kidnappings and assassinations of military and police officers accelerate in the country’s east, American and international weapons specialists hailed the destruction of the Libyan stockpile as a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy security environment.
“It’s a big breakthrough,” said Paul F. Walker, an arms control expert with the environmental group Green Cross International who has helped in efforts to demilitarize the American and Russian chemical weapons stockpiles since the 1990s. “Even though Libya’s chemical stockpile was relatively small, the effort to destroy it was very difficult because of weather, geography and because it’s a dangerous area with warring tribes, increasing the risks of theft and diversion,” he said....
MISC
Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Feb. 3, 2014
January 31, Associated Press – (Georgia) Metro Atlanta transit system restoring most bus and train service. The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority reported January 31 that most buses and trains in the Atlanta area were operating under normal conditions January 31 after a snow and ice storm earlier during the week of January 27 shut those services down.
January 30, WLSTV 7 Chicago – (National) ‘One ring’ cell phone scams, $9.84 credit card charges. The Better Business Bureau warned cell phone users about a “one ring” scam where scammers program computers to call random cell phones from an international number and hang up after one ring. If a user calls the number back, an automatic $19.95 international call fee plus $9.00 per minute is charged.
February 3, Softpedia – (International) PayPal and eBay websites defaced by Syrian Electronic Army. Attackers claiming affiliation with the Syrian Electronic Army hacktivist group defaced several pages belonging to eBay and PayPal. Affected PayPal pages included pages from the service’s French, British, and Indian sites.
Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM
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