I believe that if life gives you lemons, you should make lemonade... And try to find somebody whose life has given them vodka, and have a party.
Other states are trying to abolish the death penalty... mine's putting in an express lane.
People are saying that I'm an alcoholic, and that's not true, because I only drink when I work, and I'm a workaholic.
The great Ron White....
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USA
U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 6, 2014
The Asia Pivot: Old Policy, New Name
Geopoliticalmonitor.com
Washington’s re-engagement with the Asia Pacific, or “Asia pivot,” is not as new as the US media and some political commentators have made it out to be. It has long been US policy to prevent the emergence of a single power dominating the Asia Pacific region, and US planners have carefully maintained a regional balance of power since the days of the Cold War. The result is a longstanding US military, diplomatic, and economic presence throughout the region, much of which predates any mention of a “pivot.” The Arab Spring and its aftermath have not distracted Washington from the importance of playing a leading role in the Asia-Pacific region. The belief that US military engagement in Afghanistan and subsequently Iraq involved a substantive shift away from Asia is simply erroneous....
February 4, Wall Street Journal – (California) Assault on California power station raises alarm on potential for terrorism. Pacific Gas and Electric Company confirmed an April 2013 attack at its Metcalf transmission substation near San Jose where snipers shot at the site and knocked out 17 giant transformers that transmit power to Silicon Valley. Electric-grid officials rerouted power and made repairs, and no one has been arrested in connection with the attack.
February 4, Associated Press – (South Carolina) Navy probing alleged cheating on nuke reactor work. U.S. Navy officials are investigating 30 or more senior sailors in connection with alleged cheating on tests used to quality them as instructors taken at a Charleston, South Carolina training site. The incident was reported by a senior enlisted sailor at the site February 3.
AFRICA
International Support for French Operations in Mali
Libya Prepares to Restart the Constitutional Process Despite Risks
The Geopolitics of Airlift Support in Africa
An Emerging Jihadist Group in Egypt
Obstacles to a Federalist System in Yemen
North Africa: Bearing the Brunt of Libya's Instability
ASIA
Taiwan's Political Gridlock Threatens Its Regional Position and Cooperation with China
Pakistan's Looming North Waziristan Offensive
In Ukraine, Western Aid Has Limits
Ukraine's Financial Struggles
Belarus' Absence from the EU-Russian Competition
Pakistan: The Coming Conflict in North Waziristan
NIGHTWATCH 140206:
Japan: On Wednesday Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated his intention to expand the government's interpretation of Japan's constitution that strictly limits the scope of any Japanese military operations.
"We are now facing the disadvantages stemming from the nation's inability to exercise the right of collective self-defense," Abe said at a meeting of the House of Councillors Budget Committee.
"If the government adopts a new interpretation of the constitution, that would enable the use of the collective self-defense right," he said, there would be no need to revise the constitution itself.
"It's not that the collective self-defense right should be exercised, but the point is that we should hold the option."
"For the right to be exercised, a relevant legal framework and a political decision are required on top of a change in the constitutional interpretation," he said.
Comment: Chinese and North Korean behavior has spurred new thinking about self-defense in Japan, including the need for collective self-defense. It seems unthinkable that the behavior of two Asian states would be the catalyst for a revival of militarist impulses in Japan within the lifetime of the soldiers who fought World War II in the Pacific. Equally strange is the prospect that a rearmed Japan might work with democratic allies to keep the peace in Asia against an assertive communist China and North Korea. Curious role reversals.
The key point is that Asian states are assuming responsibility for the security of Asia. The success of the Asian democracies is a tribute to the wisdom of US policies. The Asian world is returning to normality. In that normality, the US is a Pacific power, but not an Asian power.
Korea and Taiwan remain the last unfinished business from World War II.
EUROPE
In France, Growing Protests Could Hamper Economic Reforms
Switzerland Reverses the Trend of European Integration
France's Economic Struggles
MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA
Argentina's Banks Depend on Agriculture
Panama: Canal Expansion Talks Break Down February 5, 2014
Talks with the United Group for the Canal consortium over funding for the Panama Canal's expansion have failed, head of the Panama Canal Authority Jorge Quijano said Feb. 5, Reuters reported. Quijano said that the Panama Canal Authority will still negotiate, but the consortium is unwilling to compromise and the window of opportunity to do so is closing. He said that Panama Canal Authority's priority is to keep work going and that the expansion will be finished in 2015 with or without the consortium.
Mexico police find mass grave and severed heads in Michoacan
The vigilantes agreed to register their weapons and join the official security forces
Mexican police have found a mass grave containing at least 20 bodies in the small municipality of Tinguindin, in troubled western Michoacan state.
In nearby Zacan, the severed heads of four men were discovered by residents early on Thursday.
Vigilante groups began an offensive in the area a month ago against the notorious Knights Templar drug cartel...
AFGHANISTAN
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
CHINA
China's Anti-Corruption Efforts Rumored to Have a New Target
IRAN
Iran: French Companies Considering Deals, Official Says February 6, 2014
French auto and aviation companies are visiting Iran and exploring deals possibly worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Bloomberg reported Feb. 6, citing former French Ambassador to Iran Francois Nicoullaud. The companies may start shipping parts to Iran within weeks, he said. Iran's pragmatic conservatives believe that opening up to the West could help salvage an economy hard-hit by sanctions.
IRAQ
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
ISRAEL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
RUSSIA
A Chronology of Russia's Resurgence
A Chronology of Militancy in the Russian Caucasus
With Sochi, Russia Celebrates Its Transformation
Russia: Leader In Bombing Attacks Reportedly Killed February 5, 2014
Dagestani police said they killed a suspected mastermind of the December bombings in Volgograd, Tass reported Feb. 5. A security source said the leader, identified as belonging to the Kadarskaya gang, was killed during an operation in Izberbash. Russia has stepped up raids not only in Dagestan, which is the hub of the current militant umbrella in the Caucasus, but also in Volgograd.
SYRIA
NIGHTWATCH 140205
Syria: Special comment. The Ba'athist government in Damascus appears to be holding its own. The best indication of increased stability is that the focus of most combat reports is the city of Aleppo, most of which has been under opposition control. This means the government and its allies are taking the fight to the anti-government fighting groups.
The security situation generated comments by two senior US officials.
Today, the US Secretary of State denounced Syria's use of barrel bombs dropped by helicopters. He described the tactic as barbaric. The statements deserve comment because they imply that opposition forces are too feeble to shoot down helicopters dropping 50 gallon drums packed with explosives and they exaggerate the tactical use of barrel bombs.
The Secretary acknowledged a significant shortcoming in opposition capabilities because at least a million shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles are readily available for purchase in the gray arms market. Nevertheless, the Syrian opposition fighters have no defense against helicopters dropping barrels.
A few old hands will recall that Vietnam used barrel bombs dropped from slow and low flying transports to help defeat the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia 40 years ago. Barrel bombs proved to be more precise than iron bombs dropped by faster moving combat aircraft. They are a poor country's precision bomb. One commentary described the barrel bomb as an aerial Improvised Explosive Device (IED).
The US Secretary of State provided no explanation why aerial IEDs are more barbaric than ground-based IEDs.
The second odd comment was by National Intelligence Director Clapper. He said that the chemical weapons disposal deal between the US and Russia saved the Ba'athist government in Damascus.
The facts show that long before the chemical weapons disposal deal, the opposition in Syria was a flop. As one Brilliant and Insightful Reader noted, there never was a single opposition. There were and remain many oppositions, fighting each other more often than the Ba'athist forces of the government. They never coordinated and never accepted higher leadership.
The chemical weapons destruction deal actually helps stabilize regional security by reducing the threat to Israel beyond anything the Israelis could accomplish with their own military and diplomatic skills. The agreement already has produced a degradation of the missile-born chemical weapons threat to Israel. The US-Russian agreement never had much to do with the fighting in Syria.
Syria has so much tonnage of chemical weapons and precursors that it could long ago have wiped out most of the opposition pockets and their civilian supporters. Syria's arsenal of chemical weapons includes non-persistent agents that could be used with little risk of detection.
The failure to meet artificial deadlines about removing chemical agents in the midst of an armed uprising should surprise no one. All intelligent observers knew that the deadlines depended on security conditions. The US imposed a deadline but offered no security to help Syria meet it.
Syria's willingness to continue the program is far more surprising and reassuring, especially to Israel. Plus it has Russian backing.
Clapper's staff seems to have confused correlation with causation in the briefing materials they provided him. The improved condition of the Ba'athist government is primarily a function of Russian assistance, Iranian assistance, help from Hezbollah and the utter ineptitude of the opposition plus incessant internecine fighting. Syria's chemical weapons capabilities have no bearing on those factors.
The US policy and intelligence failures in Syria have created a reprieve for the Christians, other minorities and ancient monuments of human civilization in Syria, all of which the Islamists promise to destroy. The chemical weapons deal is primarily a windfall for Israel.
MIDDLE EAST GENERAL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
MISC
Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Feb. 10, 2014
Why So Much Anarchy?
Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM
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