Police Work, Politics and World Affairs, Football and the ongoing search for great Scotch Whiskey!

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

American Thinker: Hillary and Taxes, October 15, 2016

American Thinker was good enough to post another article. Comments?

Hillary and Taxes

According to the Clinton campaign website:
Hillary is committed to restoring basic fairness in our tax code and ensuring that the wealthiest Americans and large corporations pay their fair share, while providing tax relief to working families…
This propaganda… er Clinton campaign statement, reminded me of a talk from years ago, 1992 to be exact. A very close friend, Subodh, a naturalized American citizen born in India, was speaking with family friends at a party. The men he was talking with were professionals, doctors, engineers, accountants, and the had one thing in common. They were strong Clinton supporters. Bill Clinton that is.
They were convinced a Clinton administration would make “rich” people pay more in taxes. Again, these were educated, intelligent, successful businessmen and they had bought the lie about “paying their fair share.” Subodh warned them it would come back to bite them and the gentleman would regret it.

Fast forward six months later and my friend Subodh is at another family party, same people, same discussion, taxes, and they were “shocked, shocked I say,” to find they were rich and would be paying their “fair share,” and they are none too happy about it. And Subodh just smiled, reminding them, “I warned you!”

Regressives (I prefer to call leftists what they are -- what they want does not work, has never worked nor will it ever work) have a mindset, and it doesn’t change. The New York Times has has great influence on policy makers and other “public servants”. Consider this article from the October 22nd edition:
For the first time in decades, the wealthy are set to deliver a landslide victory for a Democratic presidential candidate. 
While polling data on the rich is imprecise given their small population, polls of the top-earning households favor Hillary Clinton over Donald J. Trump two to one. The July Affluent Barometer survey by Ipsos found that among voters earning more than $100,000 a year -- roughly the top 25 percent of households -- 45 percent said they planned to vote for Mrs. Clinton, while 28 percent planned to vote for Mr. Trump. The rest were undecided or planned to vote for another candidate. 
The spread was even wider among the highest earners. For those earning $250,000 or more -- roughly the top 5 percent of households -- 53 percent planned to vote for Mrs. Clinton while 25 percent favored Mr. Trump. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus four points…
It’s interesting that the “wealthy” in the minds of the NY Times are not multimillionaires or people with “non-profits” tax dodges, but people who just top six figures in income. A salary of $100,000 a year, what is that in “real life?” It’s a senior teacher at many public schools in this nation, such as the New York public school system, or their principals or other administrative staff. Or many college professors at major universities such as Harvard, the University of Texas, or the California Institute of Technology. Is a nurse “wealthy?” A nurse practitioner can easily make 100K. Are they “rich?”

Can you put police and firefighters up there with the Gates’ and Buffets’? Many cops and firemen make over 100K a year with overtime and side jobs, and often it’s needed. A cop making 100K in Houston, Dallas or Phoenix is doing much better than a cop in San Francisco, Los Angles, New York, or Chicago.

Also, the article is somewhat vague on households or individuals. A household making 100K a year, what is that in real life? A nurse and a teacher. A fireman working a side job with a stay at home wife/mother raising the kids. That’s a cop and a nurse, with the cop working the night shift and the nurse working the evening shift, hoping to save up for a down payment on a house, to pay off student loans or a car payment, or perhaps start a family in a couple of years. Not exactly the type of people jetting up to Martha’s Vineyard to write five digit checks to the Clinton Crime Family Foundation.

As I recall, then-VP Al Gore said you were a “millionaire” if you made $250,000 for four years, and therefore you are “rich,” The propaganda wing of the regressives is in full swing to insure Democratic victory next month. And you can rest assured a President Mrs. Bill Clinton, early in her term, will say, “...And I've worked harder than I've ever worked in my life to meet that goal,” but she cannot cut the deficit (read, increase taxes one dollar for “deficit reduction,” spend five dollars on anything but, and demand pay your “fair share”) and we must ask the “wealthy” to contribute more.

Congratulation Mr. and Mrs. Middle Class, you’re wealthy. And the administration of President Mrs. Bill Clinton will remind you of that, every April 15th!

Michael A. Thiac is a police patrol sergeant and a retired Army intelligence officer. When not patrolling the streets, he can be found on A Cop’s Watch.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Officer Down

Senior Police Officer Amir Abdul-Khaliq
Austin Police Department, Texas
End of Watch: Sunday, September 4, 2016
Age: 46
Tour: 17 years
Incident Date: 9/1/2016

Senior Police Officer Amir Abdul-Khaliq succumbed to injuries sustained four days earlier in a police motorcycle crash at the intersection of Burnet Road and Ohlen Road.

He was providing an escort for a funeral and was attempting to reach the next intersection when a car attempted to turn left through the procession. The car pulled directly into his path, causing him to strike it. He was transported to University Medical Center Brackenridge where he remained until succumbing to his injuries.

The driver who caused the crash was cited for failing to yield to an emergency vehicle.

Officer Abdul-Khaliq was a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and had served with the Austin Police Department for 17 years. He is survived by his five children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Monday, October 24, 2016

Officer Down

Police Officer Clint Corvinus
Alamogordo Police Department, New Mexico
End of Watch: Friday, September 2, 2016
Age: 33
Tour: 4 years, 6 months
Badge # 119

Police Officer Clint Corvinus was shot and killed during a foot pursuit of a subject in the 600 block of South Florida Avenue.

He and a rookie officer he was training had conducted a traffic stop of a wanted felon. The man fled on foot during the stop and exchanged gunshots with the officers. Despite being wounded, Officer Corvinus was able to return fire and killed the subject.

Officer Corvinus was transported to Gerald Champion Regional Medical Center where he succumbed to his wounds.

Officer Corvinus had served with the Alamogordo Police Department for 4-1/2 y ears. He is survived by his daughter and parents.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

How a republic dies....

This was posted by a friend whom I would say is more liberal than I. From the leftist propaganda channel, MSNBC and Ms. Madcow, an interview with the now retired Justice David Souter.

Now I could make the point Mr Souter's people, by that I mean liberals, have been in charge of education for generations and have dumbed it down, particularly destroying the focus on western civilization. But it's safe to assume that Mr Souter voted for the Democrats in the presidential election and will vote that same way this November. He is no concerned about a tyrant, who says "Give me total power and I will solve this problem..." B Hussein Obama has spent the last 8 years ignoring the constitution, and Mrs. Bill Clinton will double down on this.


A ride-a-long gets a taste of police work...

People often times refer to a "routine traffic stop" and that is a misnomer almost as bad as military intelligence. But here a ride-a-long, a civilian riding a shift with an officer, gets a taste of what real police work can be.

Now in all fairness most traffic stops are, quite frankly, boring. This one was not.

Here is the full article:

On October 23, 2016, at 0434 hours a Madera Police Officer attempted to make an enforcement stop on a Mazda SUV traveling west on Howard Road at Schnoor Avenue. The vehicle failed to stop and led the officer on pursuit. When the pursuit turned onto Lighthouse Drive from Mainberry, the front passenger pointed a firearm out the window and fired approximately nine (9) rounds at the officer’s vehicle. The officer continued to pursue the Mazda and the passenger fired four more rounds at the vehicle as it approached Shannon Avenue. The police vehicle was struck by three rounds, two of them through the windshield narrowly missing the officer and civilian ride along who was riding in the passenger seat. The officer’s vehicle was disabled during the pursuit causing the officer to terminate.

The Mazda was later found abandoned on Krest Street a few blocks from where the pursing officer last saw the vehicle. Officer’s searched the area and located an AR15 style pistol and other evidence.

The officer was not injured during the incident. The civilian ride along received minor scratches from broken glass. The officer’s name is not being released at this time. The officer had recently been released from training and was on his second week as a solo officer. We are thankful and blessed that both the officer and civilian were not injured. The officer’s decisive actions prevented the civilian ride along from being seriously injured. The officer demonstrated a very cool demeanor for such a short time with the department...

Good work officer, glad you and your ride-a-long are safe.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Officer Down

Senior Police Officer Leander Frank
Navajo Division of Public Safety, Tribal Police
End of Watch: Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Age: 41
Tour: 13 years

Police Officer Leander Frank was killed in a head-on crash while responding to a call in Apache County, Arizona.

He was traveling on Indian Route 64, between Tsaile and Chinle, when their vehicles collided. Officer Frank was killed in the crash. The occupants of the other vehicle were injured.

Officer Frank had served with the Navajo Division of Public Safety for 13 years.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

This is an animal and thankfully it will never be let out

Words don't describe what a waste of a human sour this murderer is.

The details of his crime:

After receiving life sentence, convicted murderer collapses to floor

Jaleel Smith-Riley was sentenced Wednesday to life in prison without parole in the shooting death of Porshia Brooks. The Enquirer/Patrick Brennan

After denying a man's request to withdraw his guilty plea in a 3-year-old murder case, a Hamilton County judge sentenced him to life in prison.

Jaleel Smith-Riley, 23, pleaded guilty on Aug. 11 to aggravated murder and attempted murder, but decided to withdraw his plea against the advice of his attorneys. On Wednesday, Hamilton County Common Pleas Judge Charles Kubicki rejected Smith-Riley's change of heart and sentenced him life in prison without possibility of parole.

To the attorney, I feel for you, you have to defend that! But thanks to the fact you can only advise, he is under no obligation to take your advise, and you can't fix stupid!<
After receiving his sentence, Smith-Riley collapsed to the floor of Kubicki's courtroom. Police pulled Smith-Riley to his feet and he then interrupted Kubicki...

...Officials say Smith-Riley was one of three men involved in an armed robbery the night of Nov. 16, 2013 in Norwood.

Porshia Brooks and Aron Martin were inside a parked car, when court documents say Smith-Riley approached and knocked on a window with a handgun.

According to court documents, Smith-Riley forced Martin out of the passenger side, went through his pockets and then shot him in the head. Martin survived his injuries.

Smith-Riley, the documents say, then leaned into the car and fired two shots at Brooks as she sat. She died three days later.

Norwood police Lt. Tom Fallon said in an interview that in addition to pleading guilty, Smith-Riley has confessed to the crime...

For those of you who don't wear a badge, some things will make you ill. The sight of a human body that has been deceased for over a week. The odor will never be forgotten. But seeing what people will do to each other will make you ill. And this is a classic example. The murder of a woman because she had no money on her, you have sacrificed your membership in the human race. You're an animal and should be put down like one. Unfortunately, you will exist on the taxpayers till the day to you. Be grateful you are not in Texas, you would be heading to death row. Good riddance to human waste.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Officer Down

Police Officer Kenneth Ray Moats
Maryville Police Department, Tennessee
End of Watch: Thursday, August 25, 2016
Age: 32
Tour: 9 years
Badge # 156

Police Officer Kenny Moats was shot and killed after responding to a domestic violence call at a home near the intersection of Kerrway Lane and Alcoa Trail at approximately 4:00 pm.

Patrol units had responded to the home earlier in the day for a domestic dispute. Patrol units were sent to the address a second time when another call was received by dispatchers stating one of the subjects was now armed. Officer Moats and a second narcotics detective who happened to be in the area responded to the scene to assist patrol units.

They parked their vehicle approximately 70 yards from the residence and assisted one person from the home before taking cover behind their car. As they waited for patrol units to arrive the subject opened fire from a garage, striking Officer Moats in the neck. The other detective as well as a responding Blount County sheriff's deputy were able to return fire before taking the subject into custody.

Officer Moats had served with the Maryville Police Department for nine years and was assigned to the Fifth Judicial District Drug Task Force. He is survived by his wife and three children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Friday, October 21, 2016

Officer Down

Police Officer Shannon Brown
Fenton Police Department, Louisiana
End of Watch: Saturday, August 13, 2016
Age: 40
Tour: 13 years
Cause: Struck by vehicle
Incident Date: 8/7/2016

Police Officer Shannon Brown succumbed to injuries sustained on August 7th, 2016, when he was struck by a vehicle while conducting a traffic stop on U.S. Route 165, near Fourth Avenue.

He was writing a citation when a third vehicle struck his patrol car from behind, pushing it into him, and causing him to suffer a severe leg injury. He was transported to CHRISTUS-St. Patrick Hospital where he succumbed to his injuries on August 13th, 2016.

The elderly driver of the vehicle that struck Officer Brown was cited for failure to yield to an emergency vehicle.

Officer Brown had served with the Fenton Police Department for three years and had previously served with the Calcasieu Parish Sheriff's Office for 10 years. He is survived by his seven children and parents.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Filed under "DA!"

The latest example of the Ferguson Effect.
Chicago Police Stops Down By 90 Percent As Gun Violence Skyrockets
CHICAGO — Police stops in Chicago are down nearly 90 percent as the Chicago Police Department continues to struggle with bad morale and incessant violence.

From the start of the year to last week, police made only 20,908 recorded investigative stops, said Anthony Guglielmi, a Chicago Police Department spokesman. Over the same period last year, there were 157,346 recorded stops. 
Police also are seizing fewer guns: just 1,316 so far this year, while 1,413 were seized over the same period last year, Guglielmi said. 
At the same time, shootings across the city are up 80 percent, a DNAinfo Chicago analysis found. In 650 shootings so far this year, 123 people have been killed and 652 wounded. County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez has warned the city is on track to have 700 murders this year… 
…In the wake of the Laquan McDonald shooting, sources in January said officers want to avoid ending up in a bad situation while making proactive investigative stops, which has led to less aggressive policing.

“Maybe they’re doing their job by some definition, but it’s the bare minimum. The data shows they’re not engaging in proactive policing,” a source who asked not to be identified said… 
Gee, you threaten your police force with politically charged persecution, you want them judged by a court of public opinion instead of a jury of their peers and you are shocked the cops say, "Screw this, I'll sit on my ass and if they kill themselves, tough shit!"

Mayor Rham, you've reaped what you've sewn.  Now live with it.  Hopefully (but not likely, I'll say) it cost you your job.

You wonder why comedians don't make fun of Mrs. Bill Clinton.....

More on the corruption of Mrs. Bill Clinton...

My friend Mike Ford, between drinking bourbon, cooking animal flesh and otherwise enjoying retirement, has written for another publication.  Enjoy.

MILITARY EXPERT: Hillary Clinton Likely Broke Federal Law in Goldman Sachs’ 
 Oct 16th, 2016 4:45 pm 
Guest post by COL Mike Ford, US Army (retired)hillary-goldman-sachsHillary Clinton with Lloyd Blankfein, current CEO of Goldman Sachs
On October 15, 2016 Wikileaks released three complete transcripts from Hillary Clinton’s paid speeches to employees of Goldman Sachs. 
Those transcripts were made public as attachments to a January 23, 2016 John Podesta email posted on October 16, 2016 at the Daily Caller.  Podesta and three Clinton campaign staff members were among those who received the email from another member of the Clinton campaign staff. At least one of transcripts contains information that qualifies as “open and notorious” criminal act–statements or acts, known by the public, and at odds with the community’s accepted moral values. 
The transcript of her speech at the 2013 IDB CEO Annual Conference, held on June 4, 2013, 8:05 P.M., at The Inn at Palmetto Bluff, Blufton, South Carolina, contains several delivered statements that may contain classified information/analysis. 
As a former senior officer in the United States Army, I am very concerned that she may have disclosed very sensitive and highly-classified information.Here is just one example of several possible instances: 
“One of the biggest concerns I had over the last four years was the concern that was manifested several different ways that the PLA, the People’s Liberation Army, was acting somewhat independently; that it wasn’t just a good cop/bad cop routine when we would see some of the moves and some of the rhetoric coming out of the PLA, but that in effect that were making some foreign policy.  And Hu Jintao, unlike Jiang Zemin before him, never really captured the authority over the PLA that is essential for any government, whether it’s a civilian government in our country or a communist party government in China.
So President Xi is doing much more to try to assert his authority, and I think that is also good news.”  (Attached to “Goldman Sachs Paid Speeches email  as 06042013 GS 1.doc, pp.3-4
If the above had been written by a political analyst working from say, the Washington Times or the Washington Post, there would be no problem. 
However in this case, the “analysis” was delivered by a former Secretary of State and almost certainly based on intelligence received from covert assets and classified analysis from the Central Intelligence Agency, State Department Intelligence and a host of other intelligence providers. 
Because the source of the base information and the seniority of the “analyst,” in this case a former Secretary of State, this appears, on its face, to be highly classified information–delivered to business leaders who, we can assume, are not cleared to receive it. 
It’s important to note that some people can freely use certain words, terms and phrases in public discourse (like Tom Clancy and his Jack Ryan novels). However, when officials of the United States government, presumed to have actual knowledge of certain capabilities, activities and programs, use those same terms or make those same statements, those statements may constitute a criminal disclosure of classified information. 
Mrs Clinton’s effort to monetize her husband’s service as POTUS, and her own service as Secretary of State, and thereby promote her aim to become the 46th President, appears to have possibly resulted in the disclosure of classified information—a felony.  

Mike Ford is a former Infantry Colonel. He has served in Europe, Central America and in Southwest Asia, Commanding at the Detachment, Company, Battalion and Brigade Levels.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Officer Down

Police Officer Timothy Kevin Smith
Eastman Police Department, Georgia
End of Watch: Saturday, August 13, 2016
Age: 30
Tour: 5 years, 6 months
Badge # 205

Police Officer Tim Smith was shot and killed while responding to reports of a subject carrying a firearm at the intersection of Smith Street and Main Street at approximately 9:30 pm.

Officer Smith made contact with the subject along the railroad tracks adjacent to the intersection. The man opened fire on Officer Smith, wounding him. Officer Smith was able to return him fire and informed dispatchers he had been shot.

The subject fled the scene but was apprehended two days later.

Officer Smith had served with the Eastman Police Department for 5-1/2 years. He is survived by three children, two stepchildren, fiancee, parents, and three siblings. Officer Smith was murdered two days before this 31st birthday.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Officer Down

Police Officer Jose Ismael Chavez
Hatch Police Department, New Mexico
End of Watch: Friday, August 12, 2016
Age: 33
Tour: 2 years

Police Officer Jose Chavez was shot and killed while conducting a traffic stop on Franklin Street at approximately 3:40 pm.

One of the vehicle's passengers exited the vehicle during the stop and opened fire on Officer Chavez, wounding him. Another officer who witnessed the incident immediately called for assistance and pursued the subjects at high speeds for several miles.

The occupants then carjacked a second vehicle at a rest stop along I-25 near Radium Springs, before continuing to flee. The subjects were taken into custody after a successful stop sticks deployment by responding officers.

Two of the subjects were identified as fugitives wanted for murder in Ohio.

Officer Chavez was transported to University Medical Center in El Paso, Texas, where he succumbed to his wounds.

Officer Chavez had served with the 8-officer Hatch Police Department for two years. He is survived by his wife and two children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

She got what she deserved....

There is a reason we train our K9s and horses to interact with humans. But our mounts are not trained to take abuse like this idiot did.

Woman, you got less than you deserved. Now just go away before you embarrass yourself again.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Officer Down

Border Patrol Agent Manuel Alvarez
United States Department of Homeland Security - Customs and Border Protection - United States Border Patrol, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Thursday, August 11, 2016
Age: 37
Tour: 16 years

Border Patrol Agent Manuel Alvarez was killed in a motorcycle crash on the Tohono O'Odham Nation Reservation south of Sells, Arizona.

He and another agent were conducting a dirt bike patrol of rugged land when their motorcycles collided, causing Agent Alvarez to suffer fatal injuries.

Agent Alvarez had served with the United States Border Patrol for 13 years. He is survived by his wife and four children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

And now the NY Times is worried about witnesses...

I've often posted on the Ferguson riot and the need to vet witnesses, as they may be lying for their own fifteen minutes of fame. Not that a lack of truth will stop the NY Tripe from publishing a story that fits their agenda, but I wonder if this story, from their own paper last week, will give them some pause. Excerpts follow:
A Mother Is Shot Dead on a Playground, and a Sea of Witnesses Goes Silent

The New York Times 10/16/16

They paid no mind to the swirl of life in the housing project playground around them: men rolling blunts at a graffitied concrete table, tenants playing bingo, rap and R&B blaring from a boombox. Their mother, buoyant after a long day behind the counter at a Shake Shack, was sitting nearby on a paint-chipped bench, unspooling her dream of getting her first apartment.

Sorrows had come to her family in stampedes. First, her father and older sister were killed in an apartment fire in 1997, when Ms. White was 9. Next, in 2012, in a different tower of the same South Bronx project, her brother was lured into a stairwell and shot to death. But on this evening, Ms. White, 28, was telling her mother that after five stays in a homeless shelter, she had saved just enough to move into a place of her own.

It was just after 10 on June 11, a busy Saturday night. The rain had stopped and the air was swampy. Ms. White’s children savored being outside their grandmother’s stuffy first-floor apartment, above the building’s boiler room.

“Five minutes, five minutes, five minutes!” the children kept calling. Again and again Ms. White and her mother, Gola White, caved: “O.K., five more minutes and we’re going inside the house.”

The first gunshot exploded from the walkway, between two London plane trees.

“Mommy, the kids!” Ms. White screamed.

“The kids!” her mother yelled back.

Ms. White bolted from the bench, her body low to the hopscotch court as she reached for Damian Jr., Jessiah and Danielle — 3, 5 and 9 — who were already scurrying toward her.

A bullet whistled past the play set, passed through her left breast and pierced her heart. Ms. White’s brothers ran out of their apartment and cradled her as she took her last breaths.

She joined the ranks of the unintended, as detectives call those who bleed over someone else’s beef.

In the days that followed, at marches and speeches and basketball games in Ms. White’s memory, everyone promised that the outcome would be different — that in 2016, with a plunge in crime freeing up police resources, a man could not shoot a young mother dead on a crowded playground and walk free.

But tenants of the project, the John Adams Houses, say they got what they have come to expect in one of the poorest communities in the country: public safety on a budget.

A $2,500 reward for tips, the bare minimum. Detectives shouldering caseloads that, by July, already exceeded what the department’s chiefs considered manageable over an entire year. Promises by a local police commander to look into adding tower lights at the playground, made more difficult by the fact that those he had — just two — were being used in other high-risk spots.

Detectives, in turn, were frustrated that even the killing of an innocent woman did not get the tip line ringing. Wanted posters with pictures of the gunman and his getaway car were torn off lampposts and trees. The young men at the playground claimed not to know a thing. “Y’all far from the hunch,” one said in an interview, and left it at that, a line detectives heard again and again.

The playground is deserted now. Tenants organized a nighttime check-in system in one of the high-rises to keep out strangers with guns.

And Gola White, who raised eight children in the Adams Houses, all of them homebodies with big, brown eyes, is trying in vain to move out before she loses another.

With weariness more than anger, she said that the government skimps on public safety for black families like hers. She said she had asked the police about the $2,500 reward, which was not one-tenth the reward offered this summer after a young white woman was killed while jogging in Queens, generating weeks of intense news coverage.

“I think it’s a racist thing — I can’t beat around it,” Gola White said. “If you look at things on TV and somebody says, ‘I need this donated,’ if they’re white, they’ll get it faster than a black person.”

Her daughter’s fiancĂ©, Damian Bell, was stung by an encounter about three weeks after her killing when he asked two patrol officers just outside the Adams Houses for an update. He said they did not recognize Ms. White’s name.

“They feel like we don’t care, so they don’t care,” Diana Void, Mr. Bell’s mother, said of city officials. “But it’s not everybody that doesn’t care. There’s a lot of us who do care.”

Few Clues and Leads

The crimes, the rivalries and, often enough, the gang or drug ties in a murder victim’s past usually fill the first pages of the manila homicide file. Before forensic evidence is back from the lab, that history acts as a road map for detectives. Ms. White was a blank page.

The crime scene did not reveal any better clues.

Witnesses heard anywhere from three to six shots, but detectives found only a single bullet: the one in Ms. White’s chest. They thought it was a .38 caliber, but the bullet was so deformed that they could not say for sure. There were no fresh nicks on the trees, the jungle gyms or the church wall behind the playground that detectives noticed. No guns in the garbage chutes. And no bullet casings on the pavement or in the grass, which indicated that the weapon was a revolver.

Virtually the only sign detectives found of anyone having been killed there was Ms. White’s black sneaker lying near the bench.

Detective John Caruso and a team of 40th Precinct investigators set out to find surveillance video of the gunman fleeing. Some witnesses said he had made a sharp left onto East 152nd Street. Others were sure it was a sharp right. Detective Caruso pulled video from areas in both directions but found no trace of the black-hooded gunman or his pearly white sneakers.

Their search was delayed by a problem technology could not solve. Many of the bodegas and barbershops in the neighborhood were closed the day after the murder, for the Puerto Rican Day Parade, so the police could not immediately access their cameras…

As tragic and disgusting this lady's murder is, it's something else. Typical.

In Houston we suffer 225-250 murders a year, although 2015 was bad. We had just short of 300 murders and most were, get this, black on black.

There is something else. Unlike the "witnesses" in the Mike Brown shooting, the people who were sitting outside, with nothing else to do in New York, who could not make themselves famous for a while or blame a cop saw...nothing.

I have an intersection in my patrol district that we routinely get murders, stabbings, shootings at. The neighborhood is filled with people with nothing to do but sit, play dice, engage in narcotics and prostitution, and talk on their phones. And when someone comes up, an injured or killed friend or family member, they have seen...nothing.

In neighborhoods like this, police are not the solution and or assistance, we are the invaders, the "laws!" If we chase a suspect thought this area, it's not unheard of the residents screaming "cops!" or "laws!" and taking in perfect strangers, just to keep them away from us. Ir may be a case of them legitimately scared of these criminals and if they don't take them in, the crooks will remember. Or it may be a case of these people opposing the law.

In the case above, no one will protest, they statement in the story notwithstanding. You will not see the US attorney or the Attorney General or Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton on the scene demanding justice for this woman. The odds are the killers are black, they will never be caught and three kids will be raised by grandparents or aunts and uncles or the state.

And until the people who live in these areas say, "I've had enough!" and start to let the cops know who are the shooters, it will never change.

Sorry Ms. White you won't see your kids grow up. Hopefully they turn out better than many other kids.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Officer Down

Corporal Bill Cooper
Sebastian County Sheriff's Office, Arkansas
End of Watch: Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Age: 66
Tour: 15 years
Badge # 34

Corporal Bill Cooper was shot and killed after he and several other officers responded to a domestic violence call involving an armed subject at a home on the 4700 block of Highway 253.

The subject opened fire on responding officers with a rifle, fatally wounding Corporal Cooper and wounding the Hackett Police Department's chief, and pinning down multiple other officers. Corporal Cooper was transported to a local hospital where he succumbed to his wounds. The subject surrendered and was taken into custody a short time later.

A police canine from the Greenwood Police Department was also shot during the incident when the suspect shot into the patrol car she was in. Her handler released the door lock to allow her to get out of the line of fire and she ran off, but she was found two days later suffering from two gunshot wounds.

Corporal Cooper was a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and had served with the Sebastian County Sheriff's Office for 16 years. He is survived by his wife and son.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

The Human Factor…

I’ve just returned from the excellent film, Sully, starring Tom Hanks in the title roll and directed/produced by Dirty Harry, excuse, Clint Eastwood. If you see only one film this year, make it this one. It covers the crash (or water landing, if you will) of US Air 1549 in January 2009, but concentrates on the investigation afterwards by the National Transportation Safety Board. In a critical scene, the importance of the human factor, on the location, versus the “judgment” of computer simulations and second-guessing by bureaucrats in a comfortable chair, is discussed. I won’t go into more detail to avoid spoilers.

I’ve recently been linked to a great video on how quickly a life or death decision can be made by a cop (or a civilian, for that matter), based on the scenario of the recent shooting of Terence Crutcher by Tulsa OK Officer Betty Shelby. The creators of the video below, Guns Across America, give a detailed example of how a person must decide to shoot or don’t shoot.

Notice in one scenario after another, the target has the initiative. He will make the decision to shoot or not shoot first, and the cop will react to his actions. The officer has a fraction of a second to go though the OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide and Act):

Observe what is in your field of vision.

Orient is focusing on select items in your field of vision.

Decide is simply, what are you going to do.

Act, based on the three previous steps, you take your chosen action.

Going back to the video of the shooting of Mr. Crutcher by Officer Shelby, at .06 seconds you see him with his hands up, the officer pointing her pistol at his back and he is walking towards his car. At about .10 seconds the second officer approaches and at .12 seconds, he can see the Taser’s laser dots on Mr. Crutcher’s back. At .17 you see Mr. Crutcher’s right arm down and hear an apparent gunshot. At .29 you see Mr. Crutcher fall to the ground and a few seconds later you hear Officer Shelby scream, “Shots fired!”

Here is the video from the police helicopter:

At .09 seconds you see Mr. Crutcher at his door and his right arm has moved down. At .13 seconds you see Officer Shleby pointing her pistol at Mr Crutcher and Mr. Crutcher at his door, hands moving down towards the door.

I’ve been a cop on the streets for almost two decades and I’ve pointed my Sig-Sauer at more than one man. Generally they stare at the pistol, but one thing they usually don’t do is walk away. And in this situation, Mr. Crutcher is walking towards his SUV. Where he may have a weapon. Or maybe he is trying to get into the vehicle and and drive off, or drive into the officers. Blood tests have come back showing Mr. Crutcher was under the influence of PCP during this incident. That alone does not justify use of deadly force, but it does give some perspective on why he was acting this way.

Mr. Crutcher is taking action that may put the officers in a position where they have “…probable cause to believe that the suspect poses a significant threat of death or serious physical injury to the officer or others.” This is a quote from Tennessee v. Garner (1985), for all the YouTube lawyers out there, the legal standard for the use of deadly force, as set by the United States Supreme Court over three decades ago.

Another SCOTUS ruling, Graham v Connor (1989), a few years later further defined the use of deadly force. The justices clarified that,

"The 'reasonableness' of a particular use of force must be judged from the perspective of a reasonable officer on the scene, rather than with the 20/20 vision of hindsight."

So again I go back to the human factor. From the videos we can see Officer Shelby is following the suspect, the suspect is walking towards his vehicle and she doesn’t know what he will do next. He lowers his arms and you cannot see if he is reaching into his vehicle. And you hear a TASER dart fire that may be a pistol shot. And you make a decision that will haunt you till the day you die.

I am not saying she was right or wrong, justified or unjustified. I am saying justice is a slow moving process and the accused, in this case Officer Shelby, has every right to due process and the presumption of innocence in the matter. The prosecutor, who has charged her with 1st Degree Manslaughter with a minimum penalty of four years in prison, must prove every point of the charge beyond a reasonable doubt. And Officer Shelby’s attorney will work to disprove this, or at least put the jurors in the eyes of the officer, at the moment she fired.

Go back to the original video from Guns Across America and put yourself into the position of the officer. With what you’ve read and seen here, will you shoot or not shoot? Now ask yourself, will you shoot when your suspect is moving towards a vehicle, where he may have a weapon. You have a fraction of a second to decide and your actions will be reviewed, by people not worrying about going home tonight.

Welcome to the world of a cop on the street.

The Numeric Solution, October 15, 2016

Editor's Note: At Stratfor, we are primarily qualitative analysts, but we build our analyses on a base of quantitative factors. This essay explores the role of assigning numeric probability — the quantitative — in forecasting, a tool we seldom use. In the coming days, Stratfor Vice President of Strategic Analysis Rodger Baker will discuss the ways in which applying quantitative figures to qualitative judgments can be misleading, as well as our own efforts to create more clarity in our forecasts.
By Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock

One simple change to forecasters' standard operating procedure could boost forecast accuracy, increase accountability, reduce misunderstandings and miscalculations, and generally make the world a wealthier and safer place. The change? Use numbers. No more saying "it is likely," or "improbable," or "to be expected" or "all but certain." Instead, say there is a 60 percent, 23 percent, 78 percent or 95 percent chance. That's it. If pundits, journalists, economists, intelligence analysts, geo-strategists and others who prognosticate for a living switch to numbers, they would do nothing less than improve humanity's collective foresight.

Based on experience, we suspect readers had one of two reactions to the preceding argument. One reaction is to frown. "Isn't it obvious that numbers are preferable? Why wouldn't forecasters use numbers? What's the big deal?" The second reaction is also to frown, but for a different reason. "Nonsense! Reality is too complex and fuzzy for precise numbers. It's a delusion to think you can quantify everything."

We suggest those who had the first reaction look around a little more carefully. Most forecasting is not explicitly labeled as such. Indeed, it is often only implicit in analyses and judgments. In that forecasting, language dominates. A broad movement away from language to numbers would indeed be a huge change. And yes, it would be a big deal.

Much of the language used in forecasting is horribly vague. "Donald Trump could win." "The British pound may collapse." Read literally, these statements mean almost nothing. Or if you prefer, almost anything: You may have dinner tomorrow night; you could be crushed by a meteor before finishing this column. And yet, forecasts of "may" or "could" seldom prompt hoots of derision because the forecaster and his or her audience seldom take them literally. Instead, they use context, tone and body language to suggest a more precise meaning. Someone who leans forward, opens his eyes wide and says, "The British pound may collapse" is not saying the probability lies somewhere between a fraction of 1 percent and almost 100 percent. He is saying the probability is high enough to be alarming. That's still vague, but not so vague as to appear ridiculous. So people accept this language.

They shouldn't. The potential it creates for misunderstanding is vast. And forget about accountability. A forecaster who says, "Donald Trump could win" will always be right. If Trump wins, you can be sure he will infer a higher probability in his forecast than he had in mind at the time and declare himself correct. If Trump loses, you can be equally sure he will underscore the literal meaning of "could" and declare himself correct. It's not that he's dishonest. It's that he's human.

But the worst damage done by hopelessly vague verbiage is something else entirely.

The Danger of Ambiguity

Forecasting is a skill, and both common sense and abundant research tell us that the only way to improve a skill is to practice. Think of the basketball player shooting free throws over and over and over. But for practice to be effective, there must be clear, timely feedback. The basketball player gets that. If a throw bounces off the rim to the right, he sees that immediately and will adjust his next throw accordingly. But forecasters routinely get ambiguous feedback, especially if they use vague language. On Nov. 7, the forecaster who says, "Trump could win" will learn no lesson. He's like a basketball player shooting free throws in a gym at night with the lights out. He does not get clear feedback. His skill will not improve.

Of course, words like "could" and "may" are extreme in their plasticity. And to be fair, serious forecasters often use more defined language — phrases like "highly likely" or "very improbable." But that changes little. Research has shown that people take even apparently precise terms like "highly likely" to mean widely different things. And that is dangerous. In our book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, we discuss the famous case of a National Intelligence Estimate that concluded there was "a serious possibility" of a Soviet invasion of Yugoslavia in 1951. The lead author, the legendary Sherman Kent, thought the phrase was concrete and meaningful. So did the team of analysts who agreed to use that language. And no one objected when the estimate was sent to the State Department, Pentagon and White House. But a casual chat with an official made Kent realize that he and the official had a completely different sense of what "a serious possibility" meant. So Kent went back to his team and asked each person what they thought it meant: The answers ranged from 20 percent to 80 percent. Kent was shocked, and he became an advocate of using numbers to express probabilities.

Less misunderstanding, more accountability, improved skill, greater forecast accuracy and all the benefits that flow from a more accurate perception of the future: The case for using numbers is strong. But there are objections that must be answered.

Staying Aware of Numbers' Limits

One that doesn't deserve a lot of attention is the almost aesthetic revulsion some have to describing reality with numbers. True, numbers lack a certain artistry. But as Kent memorably put it, "I'd rather be a bookie than a goddamn poet."

A far more serious concern is that numbers create undue confidence by giving an estimate a bogus scientific veneer. Con men and blowhards know how that works. "Most stats are made up" sounds like empty bloviation, whereas "83.5 percent of statistics are meaningless" impresses with precision. Put together many of these numbers and you may even convince yourself you have reality and the future all figured out — until your hubris is demolished by something horribly unexpected.

We have a lot of sympathy for this view. It's hard to dispute that numbers are too often treated like totems. But the answer, surely, is not to avoid numbers, but rather to avoid treating numbers like totems. If a forecast is a subjective estimate expressed in numeric form, say so: "After careful consideration, my best guess is that there is a 77 percent chance it will happen" is absolutely clear about what it is and what it is not. And it is no different than "I think it is likely to happen" — except that it eliminates possible misunderstandings, and, when aggregated with other such forecasts, it makes accountability possible and generates clear feedback.

Finally, there is the metaphysical objection that when making a subjective estimate people simply cannot comprehend our complex and uncertain reality well enough to meaningfully distinguish between, say, a 77 percent probability and 70 or 65 percent. In this view, the elasticity of terms like "probably" is good because it allows them to stretch across a wide range of probabilities, which is the most precise resolution we flawed humans are capable of. To use precise numbers is to fool ourselves into believing we can do better.

But that's an empirical claim. It can be tested. And it has been, in the research program we discuss in Superforecasting.

A Complement to Intuition

We discovered that the best forecasters tend to be extremely fine-grained forecasters. They don't use 20, 30, 40 percent and so on. Or 20, 25 and 30 percent. Their scales read 20, 21, 22 percent…. Is this hubris and delusion? When we rounded their forecasts to make them less precise — so a 72 percent forecast, for instance, became 70 percent — we found they got less accurate. That means that when superforecasters think carefully and decide that 72 percent is closer to the mark than 70 percent, chances are they are right.

Of course, this proof only applies to the sorts of questions (Will Scotland vote to leave the United Kingdom? Will Russia seize Crimea?) and time frames (from weeks to more than a year) involved in our research. But that research was sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community and it was designed to probe the sorts of big, important issues the intelligence community has to tackle. How many other domains are there where these levels of precision can be achieved? We can only know if we test on a large scale.

This may be where the greatest benefit of numeric forecasting lies. Not only can individual forecasts and forecasters be improved by using numbers, numeric forecasts can be aggregated. From aggregation, broader analyses and insights may come. So may new ways of making accurate forecasts — like the "extremizing algorithm" we developed, which won the intelligence community's forecasting tournament.

We have made some big claims here. But please note that we are not the sort of numbers people who think quantitative analysts with computers will or should take over. Quite the opposite. While it's a safe bet that in the future quantitative analysts with computers will play a much bigger role in forecasting than they do now, experience and good judgment will not become the obsolete tools of a bygone age. As we are already seeing in fields where the progress of computers and statistical analysis is particularly advanced — think of chess and baseball — people haven't been put in museum display cases. They're still at work. The difference is that now they combine the new tools with experience and judgment to come up with something better — something that neither machine nor man could produce alone.

Experience and judgment will always be essential. We need to make the most of them. And that starts by switching to numbers.

The Numeric Solution is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Officer Down

Special Agent De'Greaun Frazier
Tennessee Bureau of Investigation, Tennessee
End of Watch: Tuesday, August 9, 2016
Age: 35
Tour: 10 years, 6 months

Special Agent De'Greaun Frazier was shot and killed while conducting an undercover narcotics operation in Jackson, Tennessee, at approximately 2:00 pm.

The subject of the investigation had Agent Frazier and an informant drive to Brianfield Cove where he told them he could obtain one ounce of cocaine. When the man returned to the backseat of the vehicle he displayed a handgun and attempted to rob them. Agent Frazier was shot once in the back as he attempted to exit the vehicle.

The man fled the scene on foot but was arrested at a home approximately one half mile away. He was subsequently charged with murder and attempted aggravated robbery.

Special Agent Frazier had served with the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation for only six months and was assigned to the Jackson-Madison County Metro Narcotics. He had previously served with the Millington Police Department for six years, the University of Memphis Police Department for four years, and also served with the Shelby County Sheriff's Office as a reserve deputy. He is survived by his wife and two children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Office Down

Police Officer Justin Scherlen
Amarillo Police Department, Texas
End of Watch: Thursday, August 4, 2016
Age: 39
Tour: 11 years
Badge # 208
Incident Date: 9/8/2015

Police Officer Justin Scherlen succumbed to injuries sustained 11 months earlier when his patrol car was struck head-on by another vehicle near the intersection of SW 34th Avenue and Georgia Street.

The collision caused Officer Scherlen to become trapped inside of his vehicle for approximately one hour as rescue personnel attempted to extricate him. He was transported to a local hospital in critical condition. He subsequently underwent numerous surgeries and continuous rehabilitation following the crash. He subsequently suffered a complication and died while on a family trip in New Mexico on August 4th, 2016.

Officer Scherlen had served with the Amarillo Police Department for 11 years and was assigned to the Uniformed Division. He also served on the agency's Honor Guard and Dive Team. He is survived by his wife and four children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Friday, October 14, 2016

Officer Down

Sergeant Shawn Miller
West Des Moines Police Department, Iowa
End of Watch: Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Age: 47
Tour: 26 years

Sergeant Shawn Miller was killed in a motorcycle crash while returning from court after testifying in a hit-and-run case at the Dallas County Courthouse.

He was traveling on Highway 169 when another vehicle turned left in front of him at the junction with I-80. Sergeant Miller was unable to avoid a collision and struck the side of the vehicle.

Sergeant Miller was an Iowa National Guard veteran. He had served with the West Des Moines Police Department for 26 years and was posthumously promoted to the rank of sergeant. He had previously served with the Iowa Department of Corrections. He is survived by his wife and three children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Ben and Jerry's and an illogical choice....

Years ago, before I knew better, I used to eat Ben and Jerry's ice cream. I loved their Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough and when I was stationed in Arizona back in the mid 90s, a Sunday ritual was to ride my bike over 50 miles, then eat a quart of that variety. Hey, two hours on the bike, I've earned it.

Then I found out besides being very hard cord leftists (I buy from people who's political alignment I don't agree with, Amazon.com and Apple comes to mind), they support cop killers. In particular, they supported the murder of Philadelphia police officer Daniel Faulkner. Wesley Clark, aka Mumia Abu Jamal. In 1981, Wesley shot Officer Faulkner in the back, then several times in the face. I then refused to purchase another item from them.

Now I found this curious. A fellow cop, who is a very open Democrat and supporter of the B Hussein Obama regime, posted this meme on FaceBook. Now the man is very opposed to the terrorist group Black Lives Matter, is a hell of a cop, but he's a supporter of cop haters, such as Mrs. Bill Clinton, Eric Holder, B Hussein Obama, etc. I'm I off when I say this is very illogical?

A recent article pointed out something, "doctors vote for Republicans, lawyers vote for Democrats..." Sound like one group can prosper without government interference, one needs it. But I really don't see how any cop can support the most anti-police administration in history. When his FBI should be looking for criminals and terrorist, the B Hussein Obama regime is working on nationalizing local policing. And we can be assured a President Mrs. Clinton will continue the process he started.

Am I nuts here?

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Officer Down

Police Officer Jonathan M. DeGuzman
San Diego Police Department, California
End of Watch: Thursday, July 28, 2016
Age: 43
Tour: 15 years, 9 months
Badge # 3836

Police Officer JD DeGuzman was shot and killed as he and his partner conducted a subject stop near the intersection of Acacia Grove Way and 38th Street at approximately 11:00 pm.

Officer DeGuzman and his partner observed two men walking in the area, but the men split up when they observed the patrol car. Officer DeGuzman's partner exited the patrol car and approached one of the man. As he asked the man if he lived in the neighborhood the subject suddenly pulled out a handgun and opened fire without saying anything.

The subject shot Officer DeGuzman's partner once in the neck before shooting Officer DeGuzman five times as he was still sitting in the police car. Officer DeGuzman's partner was able to return fire and wounded the subject as he fled on foot. The man was found hiding in a nearby ravine a short time later and taken into custody. He was charged with murder, attempted murder, and being a felon in possession of a firearm.

Officer DeGuzman had served with the San Diego Police Department for 16 years and was assigned to the Gang Suppression Unit. He is survived by his wife and two children.
Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.