An open question in military circles is has the carrier started its sail into the sunset. like the battle ship one-hundred years ago. While projection of power is essential, especially for maritime nations like the US, surface ships are becoming more risky as other nations obtain technology that can destroy these ships at low cost (drones, missiles, etc). And China is using artificial islands to project power in the South China Sea, where 1/3 of world commerce travels.
With China becoming more aggressive, many of the areas nations have looked at the US with trepidation. I'm stealing a quote, "Being America's enemy is bad, but being its ally is disastrous." With the current administration, very understandable.
Now there is no question if South Korea or Japan decided to produce nuclear weapons the time from concept to fielding would be measured in months, not years. We have open reports South Korea is looking at an independent nuclear deterrent. When I was stationed in Korea 88-89, we had a Lance missile battalion just south of Seoul, with a "special weapons" company attached to it. None dare called them nuclear warheads. The Lance was taken out of the inventory in the 1990s, but open source is there always a boomer submarine off the coast of the Korean Peninsula at all times.
Australia I think would take just a few more months. Personally I think all three should. China and North Korea only understand one thing, force. We must be ready.
Now I'm no friend of Joe Biden, but this is good news. We need subs, we need a lot, and we need them fast. Not everything we need, but movement in the right direction.
The Nuclear-Submarine Pact Is a Welcome One
The U.S., Australia, and the U.K. have broken ground on the next phase of AUKUS. This arrangement, initially unveiled in 2021, saw the joint development of nuclear-class submarines between the three countries as its primary goal. President Biden and his counterparts filled in some critical details during an unveiling ceremony this week in San Diego.
To wit: Australia will buy its own class of nuclear-propelled submarine, produced through the agreement. That vessel will be based on a U.K. design, rely on some American tech, and be constructed in Australian and the U.K. shipyards. It will be a true blend of the defense-industrial bases of each country, and it will create important military and industrial links that could serve us well in the future. The submarines are the most important product of this arrangement, but their production sets the stage for more.
But there’s a catch: The sub purchases will begin in the 2030s, and their deployment remains years, likely more than a decade, out. The U.K. will get AUKUS-produced subs by the late 2030s, while Australia will get them in the early 2040s. Yet CIA director William Burns says that General Secretary Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.
Accordingly, the AUKUS countries will use that gap between present day and the deployment of the submarines to make some impressive progress in further integrating their naval operations and shipbuilding abilities. Australian shipmen are going to train with American and British personnel. U.S. subs will more frequently dock at Australian ports: In fact, Biden said at the ceremony, one such Virginia-class nuclear submarine is already docking in Perth under that new arrangement. Canberra is also updating and expanding its ports to host more submarines.
Within the AUKUS framework, Australia will also purchase three nuclear-powered submarines from the U.S. in the 2030s. Arming the Australians with new subs to replace their aging diesel-fueled ships is a shrewd move, but it will place pressure on America’s fleet.
While this administration is appropriately touting AUKUS as a worthy new development, it has not yet demonstrated seriousness in overhauling America’s defense industrial base and boosting production, even though it has pledged to allocate just under $5 billion to submarine construction. This month, the White House released a budget that would cut defense spending in real terms next year...
Movement in the right direction, I must say.
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