USA
U.S.: New Missile Not Navy Achilles Heel - Admiral February 15, 2011
The Dong Feng 21D missile is only “one weapons system out there” and does not create an insurmountable vulnerability for U.S. carriers, said U.S. 7th Fleet, is Adm. Scott van Buskirk, adding, “it is not the Achilles heel of our aircraft carriers, or our Navy,” AP reported Feb. 15. The missile’s capability is unproven, Buskirk said, but he acknowledged it does raise special concerns and that any new capability is something to monitor and adapt to. The United States will not change its plans to hold routine drills with South Korea in international waters, Buskirk stated, saying that these operations are no different to what one would expect from other nations in the region, emphasizing the importance of transparency.
U.S.: Intelligence Officials Discuss Egypt's MB February 16, 2011
U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said he believes Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (MB) does not support the peace treaty with Israel, though he noted that the U.S. intelligence community knows little about the group’s specific views on the treaty or on Palestinian weapon-smuggling into the Gaza, Reuters reported Feb. 16. The MB is a large, heterogeneous organization whose agendas differ from country to country and whose branches include those that favor conservative interpretations of Islam as well as liberal democracy, Clapper added. CIA Director Leon Panetta said there are undoubtedly extremist elements within the MB, which merit close scrutiny to ensure their inability to assert influence in the region.
EUROPE
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
ASIA
South Korea, U.S.: Annual Military Drills To Be Held February 14, 2011
The Combined Forces Command (CFC) of South Korea and the United States informed North Korea of their plan to hold the annual “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle” joint exercises from Feb. 28-March. 10, Yonhap reported Feb. 15. The Key Resolve drills will focus on preventing North Korean provocations, such as the ChonAn attack and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, Col. Lee Bung Woo said. The drill will also test the combined defense capabilities using a U.S. super-carrier, according to an anonymous source, but could not be confirmed by CFC spokesman Kim Young Kyu. 12,800 U.S. soldiers and 200,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the exercises. Drills simulating Chinese soldiers assisting the North in the event of civil war will also be held, Chosun Ilbo reported.
India: Tender Issued For New Generation Submarines February 16, 2011
India issued a global tender worth over 50,000 crore-rupee (about $11 billion) to procure six next generation submarines by the end of 2011 as part of the Indian navy’s plans to induct 12 submarines over the next 10-12 years, PTI reported Feb. 16. Project-75 India continues the Scorpene submarine project, six of which are being built by the Mazgaon Dockyards Limited (MDL) under a 20,000 crore-rupee deal with French company DCNS. Next generation submarines will have revised qualitative requirements including better hiding capability, improved detection range, combat management system, Air Independent Propulsion systems and a mix of indigenous torpedoes along with the missiles deployed on the Scorpene submarines.
RUSSIA
Russia: S-400 Missile System To Be Deployed To Kurils February 15, 2011
Russia will deploy reinforcements to the southern Kuril Islands, including short- and medium-range S-400 Zenith missile defense systems, to protect Russia’s sovereignty in the Far East and protect the islands from possible attack, a high-ranking official of the General Staff said Feb. 14, Ria Novosti reported Feb. 15.
Russia: NATO Rules Out Joint Missile Defense February 15, 2011
NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Security Policy James Appathurai said the alliance has ruled out the possibility of creating joint missile defense with Russia, RT news agency reported Feb. 15. Speaking at a news conference in Moscow, Appathurai said NATO had originally envisioned independent, though mutually, coordinated missile defense systems.
Russia, U.K.: Rosneft-BP Deal Will Develop Strategic Alliance - Russain FM February 15, 2011
The recent deal between BP and Russia’s Rosneft will facilitate the development of the Russian-British strategic alliance and will open new cooperation opportunities, Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in London on Feb. 15, RIA Novosti reported.
Russia: Border Patrol Vessel Fires Flare At Japanese Trawler February 15, 2011
A Russian border patrol vessel Feb. 15 reportedly fired a flare at a Japanese fishing boat off the Russian-held Hokkaido Island, the local Japanese coast guard office said, Kyodo reported. The incident allegedly occurred midday around the Habomai islet group when the fishing vessel may have entered Russian-claimed waters. The Nemuro coast guard office in eastern Hokkaido is looking into the incident, and an official at the regional headquarters in Otaru in the island’s west refused to comment, saying the facts were being confirmed.
Iran: Russia Does Not Support Further U.N. Sanctions February 15, 2011
Moscow will not support another round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Feb. 15 at a news conference with British Foreign Secretary William Hague, Reuters reported. The sanctions will likely create social unrest in Iran, so Russia cannot support them, Lavrov added.
Russia: 4 Arrested On Terror Suspicion February 16, 2011
Russian transport police in Moscow detained four people, Khasan Nazhayev, Ruslan Yusupov, Ramzan Khaliyev and Anzhela Batalova, suspected of preparing a terrorist attack, Itar-Tass reported Feb. 16. The suspects were arrested on a platform of the Kievsky railway station after buying tickets to Chisinau, a law-enforcement officer said. One of the suspects, Yusupov, is a “field commander” and Batalova’s assignment was to carry out an attack on a public place, according to the investigator’s information. All four suspects were taken to Chechnya for questioning.
IRAN
Iran: Warships To Transit Suez Canal - Israeli FM February 16, 2011
Two Iranian warships heading toward Syria from the Mediterranean Sea will transit the Suez Canal, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, Ynet reported Feb. 16. Lieberman called the move “a provocation,” saying it proved Iran’s “nerve and self-esteem” were growing daily. He urged the international community to recognize that Israel could not ignore such provocations indefinitely.
Iran: Clashes At Funeral Of Protest Victim February 16, 2011
Iranian state television reported clashes between pro-government and opposition forces at the funeral of Sane’e Zhale, a person killed in recent anti-government protests, Dawn reported Feb. 16. Pro-government supporters reportedly forced the students and people participating in the funeral at Tehran Fine Arts University to leave the scene by chanting slogans of “death to Monafeghin.”
IRAQ
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
ISRAEL
Israel: Second Egyptian Troop Deployment Approved February 16, 2011
Israel has agreed to a second limited deployment of Egyptian troops to secure the demilitarized north Sinai, where gas supplies from Egypt have been disrupted due to suspected sabotage, Reuters reported Feb. 16. An Israeli official said hundreds of reinforcements had been brought in to help secure the zone. Israel’s Ynet newspaper reported that 700 Egyptian soldiers had recently been deployed in the demilitarized zone, bringing troop numbers in the area to 800 since Jan. 30. Egypt asked for approval to send more troops after suspects blew up a natural gas pipeline facility on Feb. 5
AFGHANISTAN
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
MIDDLE EAST
Egypt: New Constitution Will Be Temporary - Official February 15, 2011
A legal expert and member of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, who also serves on a committee appointed by the Egyptian military to amend the constitution, said the new document will be temporary until democratic rule is put in place, AP reported Feb. 15. According to Subhy Salem, the committee will not implement radical changes but restrictions on freedoms will be removed. The eight-member committee met with military chief Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and includes a Christian Supreme Court judge, along with other judges and legal experts, and is headed by Tareq el-Bishri, committee member Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al said. The military specified six articles to be amended or removed, along with any related articles the committee deems necessary, Abdel-Al said. However, the future government and parliament can make further changes as they see fit.
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Dispatch: U.S. Agent Killed in Mexico | STRATFOR
Mexico: Zetas Threatened Natural Gas Drillers Twice Last Year February 15, 2011
On two occasions in late 2010, gunmen claiming to represent a powerful drug cartel threatened to attack isolated natural gas well drillers if they did not pay to operate in parts of northern Mexico, two industry sources said, Reuters reported Feb. 15. Men carrying automatic weapons reportedly drove onto work sites in the Burgos basin in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon where new gas wells were to be constructed. According to a senior executive of the company overseeing the construction of the wells, the gunmen threatened to kill the workers unless their employer paid protection money to the Zetas.
Mexico: Los Zetas Attribute Padilla Massacre To Gulf Cartel February 15, 2011
Suspected members of Los Zetas hung three banners in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas state, blaming the Gulf cartel for attacks in Padilla that killed 18 people, Reforma reported Feb. 15. The banners’ text claimed that the Gulf cartel took out its frustrations on civilians because it felt defeated. Eleven civilians and 7 suspected gunmen were killed in Padilla on Feb. 13.
Colombia: Fully Submersible Sub CapturedFebruary 15, 2011
The Colombian military captured a fully submersible submarine used for smuggling drugs Feb. 13 in Cauca province on the Timgiqui River, AP reported Feb. 15, citing Colombian Col. Manuel Hurtado. The submarine was the first fully submersible vessel captured by Colombian authorities, and was capable of reaching Mexico carrying eight tons of drugs. All previous captured vessels were only semi-submersible. Hurtado estimated it took six to eight months to build and cost $2 million, and it was able to submerge 3 meters (9 feet) underwater. A tip from informants led authorities to the submarine, which was empty at the time of its capture.
Mexico: 2 Police Officers Arrested In Official's Death February 16, 2011
Mexican security forces arrested two police officers for alleged involvement in the death of Homero Salcido Trevino, Mexico’s Public Security Secretariat C-5 center commissioner, Milenio reported Feb. 16. One of the officers arrested had been a member of Salcido Trevino’s security detail.
Venezuela, Russia: Joint Bank To Be Established February 16, 2011
Russia’s Gazprombank and Venezuela’s National Development Fund bought 25 percent and 49.9 percent stakes in Evrofinance Mosnarbank, Itar-Tass reported Feb. 15. The deal’s value was not revealed, but the stakes will be invested in a yet-to-be-created Russian-Venezuelan bank.
MISC
Intelligence Guidance: Week of Feb. 13, 2011 | STRATFOR
Canada: Cyber Attack Targets Treasury, Finance Dept. February 16, 2011
Foreign hackers launched a cyber-attack on the Canadian Finance Department and Treasury Board, forcing them to go offline as counter espionage agents try and determine how much data was stolen and by whom, The Canadian Press reported Feb. 17, citing CBC News. The attack was detected in early January 2011 and was traced to computer services in China were the attack could have originated from, or simply have been routed through in an attempt to remain anonymous. The attacks aimed to obtain key passwords that unlock entire government data systems, sources said.
Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM
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