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USA

A Convention Short of Consensus, Not Contention

Analysis

In the United States, violence isn't used as often in the political process as it is in some other countries. But given the current intensity of political discourse and the recent string of attacks across the country, it is worthwhile to understand the threats to security at major upcoming political events such as the Republican National Convention, set for July 18-21 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Donald Trump presidential campaign, Republican Party and city of Cleveland are putting the final touches on the event, but the unusual levels of opposition to Trump's campaign have made security a top concern for organizers and attendees.

Threats of violence and disruption will not come from only one group. At least 16 organizations, both supporting and opposing the presumptive Republican Party nominee, have registered to hold demonstrations and marches across the downtown area during the convention. Dozens of other, more radical groups intend to demonstrate as well. But it is those with access to the convention — the party members and delegates themselves — who might present the most potent risk of disruption. Needless to say, understanding the potential threats to the convention's security is paramount...

How Donald Trump and the GOP Dropped the Two-State Solution for Mideast Peace

Days before the Cleveland convention, GOP leaders and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump have found a rare bit of common ground: ditching decades of bipartisan U.S. foreign policy calling for the creation of an independent Palestine.

The shift came when the Republican Platform Committee unanimously approved an Israel-Palestine provision Tuesday night that had a striking omission: any reference to a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. The platform instead uses staunchly pro-Israel language that promises to oppose any outside efforts to force Jerusalem into a deal.

The new platform language was drafted with not only the blessing but the intimate involvement of two of Trump’s closest aides, Jason Greenblatt and David Friedman, according to several sources behind the effort. The two men are Trump’s primary Israel advisors.

AFRICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ASIA

Broken Trust: How a Failed Coup Weakens Turkey

Analysis

The coup attempt that saw the Turkish state plunged into crisis has come at precisely the wrong time for Ankara. Just over the border in Iraq and Syria, critical challenges are mounting, as Turkey is drawn deeper into the fight to contain the Islamic State. Internally, Turkey is combating its own domestic Kurdish militant movement, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Because the coup emerged from within certain divisions of the military, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) must now engage in heavy purges of the armed forces. This will make it difficult for Ankara to use the military as an instrument of policy and national strategy. The coup has been put down, but the aftershocks could hamstring Turkey for a long time to come...

A Place Where Geopolitics Fades

Analysis

By Diego Solis

There are places where geopolitics fades, where you can shut yourself off from the slow-burning conflicts and tumultuous markets, from the rise and fall of great powers. The Cook Islands are one such location. This grouping of 15 islands at the heart of the South Pacific is just one tiny segment of a sweeping arc of islands that sprawls across the Pacific from the Marianas to Polynesia. Some (such as New Guinea and New Zealand) are massive, while others are nothing more than the faintest ring of coral above blue water...

Turkey, Fanning the Flames of Instability

As purges continue across Turkey in the wake of the attempted military coup, the leaders of certain countries are attempting to defend and solidify their holds on power. An observer need look no further than Turkey's immediate periphery in the Caucasus and Central Asia for evidence. On Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev unveiled constitutional amendments to prolong presidential terms from five to seven years. Meanwhile, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov set a date for a similar presidential term extension to take effect in his country....

India Strains to Move Away From Agriculture

Even though India's economy is the fastest-growing in the world, job creation in the country has fallen to its lowest point since 2009. Speeding the pace of the Indian economy's shift from agriculture to manufacturing has been one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chief objectives since he took office in 2014. In launching his "Make in India" campaign in 2014, Modi outlined a plan to increase the manufacturing sector's share of India's gross domestic product to 25 percent by 2022 and to add 100 million more manufacturing jobs (currently, manufacturing constitutes 16 percent of GDP and employs some 50 million people). But entrenched opposition to labor and land acquisition reforms are throwing off the prime minister's timetable for reaching his ambitious goals for the sector.

North Korea: 3 Ballistic Missiles Fired, Seoul Says

North Korea test-fired three ballistic missiles in the early morning hours of July 19, a statement by the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said, CNN reported. The missiles, which traveled 500-600 kilometers (310-370 miles) to the east, were launched from North Korea's western province of North Hwanghae. The missile tests follow an agreement July 8 between Washington and Seoul to deploy the controversial Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile interception system in South Korea.

EUROPE

A European Dream, Deferred

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko arrives for the 2016 NATO summit in Poland. As countries with a history of Russian intervention become more concerned about Russian interference, their hopes for European integration are also becoming more elusive. (SEAN GALLUP/Getty Images)
Summary

As difficult to accept as the United Kingdom's recent vote to leave the European Union is for many people around the world, for some citizens of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine, it is just baffling. For several years, their countries have aspired to join the Continental bloc, though none has clinched an official offer of membership yet. Though the Brexit will not precipitate the European Union's demise in the immediate term, it will undoubtedly fix the union's attention on its inherent problems. Consequently, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia worry that EU interest in expanding east will decrease, enabling Russia's influence in the region to grow…

Looking for an Exit From the Brexit

The results of the Brexit referendum are proving to be as much a threat to the United Kingdom's unity as they are to the unity of the European Union. For Scotland and Northern Ireland, two countries in the United Kingdom where a majority of voters opted to remain in the European Union, the decision to leave the Continental bloc is especially concerning. Scotland's 2014 independence referendum and more recent opinion polls in Northern Ireland highlight their dilemma: Voters in each place want to remain in both the United Kingdom and the European Union. This contradiction will shape London's negotiations with the European Union over the future of their relationship...

U.K.: House Of Commons Backs Trident Nuclear Weapons System Renewal

The British House of Commons voted July 19 overwhelmingly in favor of renewing the country's Trident nuclear weapons system, BBC reported. Lawmakers backed the measure, which will cost an estimated 31 billion pounds ($40.7 billion), by a vote of 472 to 117. The system consists of four submarines that can each carry up to eight nuclear missiles. Each missile can carry multiple warheads. The new fleet will be ready for service by the early 2030s. New Prime Minister Theresa May made clear that she would be ready to use nuclear weapons if the situation arose.

A Brexit From Europe’s Scientific Community?

Analysis

In the scientific community, collaboration across countries, continents and oceans has long been the norm, driving scientific knowledge and innovation forward. Research projects and development, especially at the academic level, often cross international borders. Even so, science and research are not immune to political and economic restraints: Travel and immigration regulations, access to funding, and patent laws all limit open collaboration in scientific development.

The United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union will not eliminate the opportunities for its scientists and researchers to work with those of other countries, even EU member states. Nevertheless, it could have repercussions for the future of technological innovation in the United Kingdom. Though ideas will continue to flow freely between the United Kingdom and the Continent after the Brexit, scientists and researchers may not. In addition, as the Brexit becomes a reality, funding for research in the United Kingdom likely will take a substantial hit...
MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

AFGHANISTAN

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

CHINA

China Is Building Its Future on Credit

Summary

As China tries to overcome slowdowns in its industrial and trade sectors, the country's banks have continued to increase the pace of lending, issuing 1.38 trillion yuan ($205.8 billion) worth of loans in June. The figure confirms some economists' expectations that lending will keep rising as China's central government attempts to revive economic growth and boost property markets that showed signs of another slump in May. It also indicates that despite Beijing's repeated pledges to reduce the economy's reliance on credit and state-led investment, the easy flow of financing from state-owned banks remains the country's primary bulwark against widespread debt crises among corporations and local governments...

IRAN

Iran: Secret Document Reveals New Nuclear Deal Details

A secret document connected to last year's Iran nuclear deal and made public on July 18 revealed that restrictions on Iran's nuclear program will begin to ease four years before the official agreement expires, AP reported. The document, described as a separate from but closely related to the 15-year nuclear accord, shows that Iran will be able to begin replacing centrifuges with thousands of advanced machines starting in 2027, just 11 years after the deal was first implemented. The document was never released to the public and came to light on July 18, when a diplomat passed it to the press. However, U.S. officials say it was made known to members of Congress earlier.

The document lays out important terms of the nuclear agreement that were absent in the public record. Along with the shorter timeline, it imposes a significant constraint on the number of centrifuges Iran will be allowed to replace. Iran currently has 5,060 centrifuges, and the number of replacements would be limited to between 2,500 and 3,500, depending on their efficiency levels. Those replacement centrifuges could be up to five times as powerful as the older models. The document seems to suggest that Iran actually requires less than 12 months — the number put forward by the U.S. government — to make enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon. In fact, Iran's breakout time could be closer to six months. However, because of the time it takes to build and integrate that many centrifuges, the country would not be able to turn them all on at once, an assessment echoed by U.S. officials familiar with the document. Notably, the document does not specify enrichment restrictions after year 13. International concerns about Iran's nuclear program remain.

IRAQ

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ISRAEL

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

RUSSIA

Russia's Muslim Regions Turn to the Gulf for Help

Analysis

As Russia's economy continues to stagnate, the country's 83 regions are being forced to compete with one another for outside investment to stay afloat. The quest for funding was a popular theme at the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, where regional governments and corporations tried to woo foreign partners and financiers. Some regions have focused their campaigns on Asia and Europe: The Kaluga and Kaliningrad provinces, for example, have signed investment deals with Bavaria, and Kaluga's governor visited Vietnam earlier in the year seeking funding. But four of Russia's Muslim republics — Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya and Dagestan — have set their sights on Muslim states in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, a strategy that has put Moscow on edge...

SYRIA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MISC

Geopolitical Calendar: Week of July 18, 2016

The Attack on the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel That Never Happened

Analysis

Editor's Note: The following piece is part of an occasional series in which Fred Burton, our vice president of intelligence, reflects on his storied experience as a counterterrorism agent for the U.S. State Department.

By Fred Burton

Just off Park Avenue in midtown Manhattan, only two blocks from St. Patrick’s Cathedral, yellow taxis stop and start before a row of heavy glass doors at the base of an imposing 47-story building. A single doorman stands outside, his white-gloved hands folded. Above him the name of the building is scrawled on the aging concrete: The Waldorf-Astoria...

The Anatomy of a Coup Attempt

Analysis

Coups tend to be evaluated by a single criterion: whether or not they achieved their purpose. And though the results are, of course, what matters most to those who have power — and those who covet it — that kind of evaluation ignores the anatomy of what makes a coup successful. The current situation in Turkey reveals a significant degree of planning and coordination, but its "success" depends on the same things that all others do...

It Takes a Village to Stop a Lone Wolf

By Scott Stewart

The recent attacks in Dallas, Nice, Baton Rouge and Wurzburg have again raised public awareness of lone attackers unaffiliated with an organized terrorist group. I am constantly asked how governments can defend against this new threat. But that question is misguided: Lone attackers operating under a model of leaderless resistance is not a new phenomenon. Stratfor has been tracking the devolution of the jihadist movement from a hierarchical structure to a more grassroots one for more than a decade. Though leaderless resistance is by design more difficult for authorities to detect and deter, those who practice it are still bound by the vulnerabilities in the terrorist planning cycle. …

How the Brexit Could Hurt Scientific Research



In the scientific community, collaboration across countries, continents and oceans has long been the norm, driving scientific knowledge and innovation forward. Research projects and development, especially at the academic level, often cross international borders. The United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union will not eliminate the opportunities for its scientists and researchers to work with those of other countries, even EU member states. Nevertheless, it could have repercussions for the future of technological innovation in the United Kingdom. Ideas will continue to flow freely between the United Kingdom and the Continent after the Brexit, but scientists and researchers might not. In addition, as the Brexit becomes a reality, funding for research in the United Kingdom likely will take a substantial hit.