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USA
Iran: U.S. Confirms Informal Discussions December 7, 2010

U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns and Iranian top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili held “informal discussions” during talks in Geneva, U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley stated Dec. 7, KUNA reported.

U.S.: WikiLeaks Has Affected Defense, State Departments December 7, 2010

The WikiLeaks release of secret documents has harmed U.S. Defense Department operations because people and governments are withholding information out of fear their identities will be revealed, CNN reported Dec. 7, citing a statement from the Pentagon. Pentagon spokesman Col. Dave Lapan said the documents make potentially dangerous information available to U.S. enemies. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said that after the WikiLeaks release, there has been at least one meeting during which it was requested that notebooks be left outside and that some meetings are involving fewer diplomats. The extent of damage to U.S. diplomacy remains to be seen, Crowley said.

U.S.: Countries' Unilateral Recognition of Palestinian State Opposed December 7, 2010

The United States has opposed moves by Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay to recognize an independent Palestinian state, with a U.S. State Department spokesman saying such recognition is “counterproductive” to achieving peace in the Middle East, AFP reported Dec. 7. The spokesman said the only way to resolve the issue is through direct negotiation, not unilateral action.

WikiLeaks and U.S. Critical Infrastructure STRATFOR

December 5, Fayetteville Observer – (National) Espionage investigation centers on Fort Bragg. A U.S. Navy intelligence specialist stationed at Fort Bragg in Fayetteville and Spring Lake, North Carolina, is under investigation for espionage after he sold top secret documents to an undercover FBI agent posing as a foreign intelligence officer, according to a search warrant filed in federal court December 3. A Naval Criminal Investigative Service spokesman (NCIS) said the 22-year-old, of the Naval Reserve, was being held in Norfolk, Virginia. The warrant indicated the suspect sold documents on several occasions staged by investigators at two Spring Lake hotels. According to the search warrant, the suspect met an undercover FBI agent November 15 in the lobby of the Hampton Inn on Bragg Boulevard. Posing as a foreign intelligence officer, the special agent brought the suspect to his room, where the suspect discussed his access to military computer networks and classified networks, the warrant noted. The suspect allegedly said he could be a very valuable source of information over the course of his planned 20-year Navy career. At a meeting the next day at the same hotel, the suspect produced two documents - one labeled “secret” and the other “top secret” and accepted $1,500 in cash, the warrant alleged. He agreed to meet the agent again November 19, when he produced 51 pages of secret and top secret documents, according to the warrant. Source: http://www.thesunnews.com/2010/12/05/1850907/espionage-investigation-centers.html

EUROPE
Poland: WikiLeaks Cables Cause Serious Problem - PM December 7, 2010

U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks have caused Poland to lose its illusions over the character of U.S.-Polish relations, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Dec. 7, Sky News reported. Tusk said that the WikiLeaks have not caused an image or reputation problem for Poland as it has for other countries. The released cables have presented a serious problem and have shed light on U.S. relations to Poland and other allies, Tusk said. The cables reveal that Poland had expected to receive operational U.S. Patriot missiles on its soil and a permanent battery arrangement of around 110 personnel. Instead, the cables reveal that Poland has received unarmed Patriot missiles and the United States only plans to send 20-30 permanent personnel

Dispatch: France Courts Emerging Powers | STRATFOR

ASIA

China: Chilean President To Strengthen Ties December 7, 2010

Chile wants to strengthen bilateral relations and trade with China, Chilean President Sebastian Pinera said Dec. 7, adding Chile will familiarize itself with “China’s preferences” since Chile can offer a variety of products to satisfy the needs of the expanding Chinese market, Xinhua reported. Pinera told reporters during his visit to Beijing in November a “new phase” of relations between the two countries has begun.

RUSSIA
U.S., Russia: Deal To Reduce Nuclear Risks Signed December 7, 2010

U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary Daniel Poneman and the head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom Sergei Kiriyenko signed an agreement to study the possibility of reducing nuclear proliferation risk by converting Russian nuclear research reactors to use low-enriched uranium fuel, Reuters reported Dec. 7. The agreement comes during Poneman’s visit to Moscow to further cooperation on nuclear security and peaceful atomic energy.

Russia: NATO Expected To Renounce Military Planning December 8, 2010
Russian NATO Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin demanded that NATO’s defense plan for the Baltics and Poland, that mentions Russia as a potential aggressor, be confirmed or denied, RIA Novosti reported. The situation is a “test of decency,” Rogozin stated, adding to overcome past mutual grievances and phobias both Russia and the NATO countries need powerful public support. The information published by WikiLeaks and reprinted by The Guardian “casts a shadow” over Lisbon agreements, Rogozin said. NATO cannot confine itself to “dry comments” on this issue, and political reaction should follow, he added.

Russia: Air Defense, Missile Systems To Fall Under Joint Command December 7, 2010

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has ordered air defense, ballistic missile defense and ballistic missile early warning systems to merge under the joint strategic command before Dec. 1, 2011, Interfax reported Dec. 7. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov will oversee implementing the order.

Russia: Envoy To NATO Criticizes Baltic Defense Plan December 7, 2010

Russia’s permanent envoy to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, said he will ask NATO about the existence of its plan to defend the Baltic states from a Russian attack at the first ambassadorial meeting of the Russia-NATO Council on Dec. 8, Ekho Moskvy reported Dec. 7. Rogozin said he expects an answer from NATO at the political level on how it intends to revise its plans now that it has called Russia a strategic partner.

Russia, India: Joint Military Drills To Include All Branches December 8, 2010

Russian-Indian joint military exercises will involve all three branches of the armed forces and could be held every year in the future, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said Dec. 8, RIA Novosti reported. Makarov discussed the Indra military drills with Indian Air Chief Marshal Pradeep Vasant Naik. The Indra joint biannual drills have been held since 2003 but have never included all branches.

IRAN
Iran: North Korean Technicians Seen At Tehran Airport - Former Diplomat December 7, 2010

Mohammed Reza Heydari, Iran’s former consul general in Norway, said he had regularly seen North Korean technicians at Tehran’s airport between 2002 and 2007, AFP reported Dec. 7. Speaking at a meeting organized by the Paris-based think tank the Center of Political and Foreign Affairs, Heydari, who was granted asylum in Norway in February 2010, said he is “100 percent certain” that he saw North Koreans during a stint as a foreign ministry official at the airport in Tehran, and that these contacts continued. He also said he spoke to members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who confirmed Iran’s plans to build a nuclear bomb. Moreover, Heydari said he was able to confirm that Iran has two goals: to develop the range of its surface-to-air missiles and to obtain a nuclear weapon with North Korean help.

Iran: Rift Within Ahmadinejad's Government - Former Diplomat December 7, 2010

During a meeting at France’s Center of Political and Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Reza Heydari, a former Iranian diplomat who defected to Norway in February 2010, commented on a rift within the Iranian government, saying a group of conservative lawmakers in parliament speaker Ali Larijani’s camp are increasingly dissatisfied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s religiously-oriented faction, AFP reported Dec. 7. Whereas Larijani’s group wants to govern Iran, Ahmadinejad’s supporters have a global agenda, especially with regard to nuclear weaponry, Heydari said. Ahmadinejad’s inner circle believes that the survival of Iran — and of Islam — can be ensured with as few as two nuclear bombs, Heydari added.


IRAQ
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ISRAEL
Israel: Gaza Blockade Eased To Allow Exports
December 8, 2010
Israel on Dec. 8 announced a further relaxation of its blockade of Gaza, Reuters reported. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the security Cabinet approved a proposal that will allow Gaza to export manufactured goods. At this stage, export from Gaza will be limited to agriculture, furniture and textiles, among other products, and will be done in a gradual manner as it is subject to security and logistic assessments at Kerem Shalom crossing, a Netanyahu’s office said. A Hamas spokesman dismissed the Israeli move urged all parties not to be fooled by Israel’s “propaganda.”


Turkey: PM Demands Israeli Apology On Flotilla December 7, 2010

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Israel should apologize and pay compensation for the May flotilla incident in which nine Turkish citizens were killed, AFP reported Dec. 7. Erdogan said during a speech to the Turkish parliament that if any nation wants a fresh start on relations with Turkey, it must admit its crime, apologize and pay compensation. He added that a relaxation of the blockade on the Gaza Strip is not enough, and the blockade must be lifted, and only after these steps are taken will Turkey reevaluate the situation.

Israel: Argentine Recognition Of Palestinian State Is Regretful
December 7, 2010

Argentina’s recent recognition of the Palestinian territories as a free and independent state within the borders prior to the 1967 Six-Day War is regrettable and highly damaging to the foundation of the peace process, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said, DPA reported Dec. 7. Palmor said such recognition while the peace negotiations are ongoing with no final deal in sight is contrary to the existing legal framework of the peace process, adding that the Argentine declaration has no effect on the real situation, helping neither the Palestinian cause nor promoting Israeli-Palestinian relations. He added that Israel’s opinion on the events was relayed to Argentine authorities through diplomatic channels.

Palestinian Territories: Recognition Ineffective - Source December 7, 2010

Hamas is not interested in the recognition of the Palestinian state, according to a STRATFOR Hamas source on Dec. 7. The recognition drive will not convince Israel to end settlement construction and return to negotiations, the source said. Recognition does not change the reality on the ground, and Israel will resort to unilateral measures if Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas declares Palestinian statehood.

AFGHANISTAN

A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 1-7, 2010 | STRATFOR

U.K.: Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan In 2011 – PM December 7, 2010

British Prime Minister David Cameron said improving conditions in Afghanistan could allow troops to begin withdrawing as early as 2011, Reuters reported Dec. 7. Accompanying Cameron on an unannounced trip to Afghanistan on Dec. 6, British Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. David Richards said the withdrawal is conditions-based, but that the progress made since his last trip three months ago is impressive. Cameron said that British-American relations are good and undamaged despite recently leaked criticisms, adding that everyone now knows that there were not enough troops in Helmand province, Afghanistan, when the leaked comments were made.

MIDDLE EAST
Latin America's Support for a Palestinian State STRATFOR

South Korea: Parliament Approves Sending Troops To UAE December 8, 2010

The South Korean National Assembly on Dec. 8 approved a government proposal to send troops to the United Arab Emirates, Yonhap reported. South Korea intends to send approximately 130 soldiers in January on a two-year mission to help train UAE special forces. The South Korean soldiers are expected to be stationed in the region of Al Ain.


SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Brazil: President-elect Postpones Decision To Buy Fighter Aircraft December 7, 2010


Brazilian President-elect Dilma Rousseff has decided to postpone the decision to acquire fighter aircraft, Dow Jones reported Dec. 7, citing Folha. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in an interview late Dec. 6 that he had left the decision to Rousseff, who will take office on Jan. 1, 2011, Reuters reported. Dilma reportedly met with da Silva and Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim on Dec. 6, during which she requested further study into the issue because there are differences within the government. According to an unnamed government source, the decision, originally expected to be announced in 2010, will be announced sometime in 2011.

Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010 STRATFOR

Mexico: Alleged LFM Leader In Apatzingan Arrested December 7, 2010

Mexican federal police arrested Jose Arcos Martinez, the suspected leader of La Familia Michoacana (LFM) drug cartel in Apatzingan, Michoacan state, El Universal reported Dec. 7. Arcos Martinez was arrested in Morelia, Michoacan state, and is believed to have controlled the flow of illegal drugs in several municipalities in Guanajuato and Michoacan states.

Brazil: Aircraft Deal Will Now Include Ships, Other Equipment - Source
December 7, 2010

According to a STRATFOR military source in Brazil, a proposed deal to purchase fighter aircraft from the United States, France or Sweden — reportedly delayed Dec. 6 by Brazilian President-elect Dilma Rouseff until her inauguration January 2011 — will now be announced as part of a larger military acquisition in 2011. The deal will include ships, equipment for the armed forces, and the construction of a bullet train from Rio de Janeiro to Sao Paulo, the source said. Current Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Dec. 5 said he was leaving the decision to Rouseff in order to allow Rousseff to announce the deal in her first year as president.

Argentina: Gas Deposit Found December 7, 2010

An unconventional gas deposit containing 4.5 trillion cubic feet of proven shale gas reserves was discovered in Neuquen, approximately 1150 km southwest of Buenos Aires, Xinhua reported Dec. 7. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez said the discovery allows Argentina to project gas reserves for the next 50 years and promised the government would adopt special techniques to adequately develop the gas fields using Argentine corporations who she hopes will work together with hydrocarbons companies. YPF, the biggest energy company owned by Spain’s Repsol in Argentina made the discovery that Fernandez said would support the growth of the country, generating wealth and distributing revenues.

Guatemala: Mexican Cartel May Have Helped Free Suspect December 8, 2010

Members of Mexican drug-trafficking cartel Los Zetas may have been among the 20 gunmen that freed murder suspect Elmer Aroldo Zelada Galdamez from the Malacatan prison in Guatemala, Prensa Libre reported Dec. 8. Two people were killed and five were injured during the attack on the prison.

MISC

Above the Tearline: Interpol - Myth and Reality STRATFOR

U.S.: Increased Access To Australian Military Bases Sought December 7, 2010

U.S. and Australian officials will meet in Canberra on the week of Dec. 13 to discuss a possible increased presence of U.S. military personnel in Australia through naval visits and training exercises, The Sydney Morning Herald reported Dec. 7, citing a statement by U.S. Pacific Command chief Adm. Bob Willard. Willard is currently in Australia touring defense bases that the United States could be given access to, including the Bradshaw Field Training Area in Northern Territory and HMAS Stirling naval base on Garden Island in Western Australia.

Geopolitics Continue Despite WikiLeaks | STRATFOR

December 4, CBS4 Denver – (Colorado) Colo. officials assess damage from major data leak. Western Colorado law-enforcement authorities are assessing the damage from a major security breach that exposed employees’ personal information, names of confidential informants and investigative files to public view on the Internet. The information from the Mesa County Sheriff’s Department also included e-mails about crime victims and homicide investigations, along with personal details about sheriff’s employees, such as their home addresses, their spouses and children’s names, and the schools the children attend. The informants have been notified and officials are laying out plans to alert others who may have been exposed. Officials said a Mesa County, Colorado information technology employee inadvertently posted the information on a site that could be accessed without a password. Officials said the employee thought the site was secure. The sheriff’s department said its files include information on up to 200,000 people, but it was not clear how many of them were included in the leaked data. Authorities said more than 20 years worth of data was posted on the site. It is unclear how long the information was on the site. Authorities said it was accessed by someone outside the county for the first time October 30. The information was taken down November 24 when authorities were alerted by an individual who found his or her name there. Source: http://cbs4denver.com/wireapnewsco/Colorado.officials.assess.2.2034731.html

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