USA
Review Reveals a Sustained U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan STRATFOR
EUROPE
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
ASIA
Live-fire Exercises and New Tensions on the Korean Peninsula STRATFOR
India, China: Six Deals Signed December 16, 2010
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed six agreements Dec. 16, Press Trust of India reported. A memorandum of understanding on green technology was signed as well as deals regarding the exchange of hydrological data on shared rivers and media and cultural exchanges. Two banking sector pacts were also signed.
Pakistan: U.S. Missile Strike Kills 7 In Northwest December 16, 2010
A U.S. missile strike on Dec. 16 killed seven militants in northwestern Pakistan in a tribal region that has rarely seen such strikes, two anonymous Pakistani intelligence officials said, AP reported. The officials said the missiles struck a vehicle in the Spin Drand area of Khyber agency. Pakistan’s border region, particularly North Waziristan, has seen more than 100 missile strikes this year.
China: Aircraft Carriers To Join Navy December 16, 2010
China’s State Oceanic Administration said the plan to build China’s first aircraft carrier was decided last year by China’s leaders, Asahi Shimbun reported Dec. 17. The annual national ocean development report says “asserting China’s sea power is indispensable to accomplishing the great resurgence of the Chinese people.” A conventional powered carrier is planned for launch in 2015,according to Chinese military sources. A nuclear powered carrier is planned for launch by 2020. The report indicated that the possession of aircraft carriers is necessary to compete with the United States and heighten patriotic sentiment.
Japan: New Defense Policy Announced December 17, 2010
Japan’s new defense policy expressed concern over China’s military rise and naval actions in the region, Kyodo News reported Dec. 17. The Democratic Party of Japan in its first National Defense Program Outline plans a reduction of Japanese troops in Hokkaido and a reduction of Cold War-era equipment. Security will be increased near China and Taiwan and defense cooperation will be enhanced with South Korea, the United States, India and Australia, with whom it will cooperate to combat cyber-attacks. Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa said the program is appropriate given the current security landscape.
RUSSIA
Russia, Venezuela: Oil Venture Could Cost $24 Billion December 16, 2010
Russia and Venezuela may spend $24 billion to tap Venezuela’s Junin 6 heavy oil field, Russia’s OAO Gazprom Neft said, Bloomberg reported Dec. 16. The venture will decide in 2013 on the project, which expects to begin output at 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil that year, according to the project chief at Gazprom Neft, Yuri Lyovin. Investment will be split based on equity shareholding, with Petroleos de Venezuela assuming 60 percent and the Russian group taking the remaining 40 percent. Russia’s group must borrow to fund the project, Lyovin said. The Junin 6 field may contain 53 billion barrels of oil reserves, and the venture hopes to reach 450,000 bpd in 2017, Lyovin said. Partners in the venture include OAO Rosneft, TNK-BP, OAO LUKoil and OAO Surgutneftegaz.
Russia: Police Arrest 800 In Moscow Region December 18, 2010
Police prevented unauthorized rallies in several Moscow region towns and detained more than 800 people, according to the Moscow region police directorate’s information department chief, Itar-Tass reported Dec. 18.
IRAN
Israel: Iran Cuts Hezbollah's Budget - Intelligence December 16, 2010
Aid to Hezbollah provided by Iran has been cut more than 40 percent, according to Israeli intelligence reports, The Jerusalem Post reported Dec. 16. According to assessments, Iran has given Hezbollah nearly $1 billion in aid in recent years but has cut the amount due to the most recent international sanctions against Tehran. The cuts have caused tensions between Hezbollah leadership, including the group’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran’s senior officer in Lebanon, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer and Quds Force member Hossein Mahdavi.
Iran: Gasoline Hiked Four-Fold December 18, 2010
Over the next few days the price of gasoline will rise four-fold in Iran with future increases expected to be announced, state television announced Dec. 18, as the most politically sensitive part of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s subsidy cuts plan takes effect, Reuters reported. The price hike will increase to 4,000 rials, with the 60-liter or higher ration rising to 7,000 rials. Iranians can buy 50 liters of fuel at the 1,000 rial price in January before having to pay the higher price, according to the television announcement.
IRAQ
Iraq: Lawmakers Lift Sunni Politician Ban December 18, 2010
Iraq’s parliament lifted a ban on three Sunni Muslim politicians accused of ties to Saddam Hussein’s ousted regime, AP reported Dec. 18. The politicians were kept from running in the March national elections.
ISRAEL
EU, U.S.: Israel Must Open Gaza Border Crossings - Officials December 16, 2010
Israel must fully open Gaza border crossings to allow the transit of humanitarian aid, exports and people, EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said to U.S. Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell on Dec. 16, DPA reported. The statement came after a meeting in Brussels, during which Mitchell briefed Ashton on his recent talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Ashton said she appreciated Israel’s decision to allow exports out of Gaza, but called for further efforts to achieve a fundamental policy change. Ashton also indicated that the United States and the European Union were committed to working together toward Israeli-Palestinian peace and the creation of a “contiguous, viable and sovereign Palestine.”
Israel: Iran Cuts Hezbollah's Budget - Intelligence December 16, 2010
Aid to Hezbollah provided by Iran has been cut more than 40 percent, according to Israeli intelligence reports, The Jerusalem Post reported Dec. 16. According to assessments, Iran has given Hezbollah nearly $1 billion in aid in recent years but has cut the amount due to the most recent international sanctions against Tehran. The cuts have caused tensions between Hezbollah leadership, including the group’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran’s senior officer in Lebanon, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer and Quds Force member Hossein Mahdavi.
Bolivia: Palestinian State Recognized December 17, 2010
Bolivian President Evo Morales said Bolivia recognizes Palestine as an independent state, AFP reported Dec. 17. Morales made the statement during the Common Market of the South summit in Foz de Iguacu, Brazil.
Lebanon: France To Supply 100 Anti-Tank Missiles December 17, 2010
French Prime Minister Francois Fillon told Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri in a letter that France will provide Lebanon with 100 HOT anti-tank missiles after Fillion discussed the issue with Hariri during the Lebanese prime minister’s visit to Paris in early December, Al-Hayat reported Dec. 17. The missiles will be supplied without any condition in support of Lebanese institutions and the government, a source stated.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: Taliban-designated Governor Arrested December 16, 2010
Nisar Ahmad, the Taliban-designated shadow governor for Afghanistan’s southeastern province of Khost, has been arrested along with three other individuals by Afghan intelligence agents, National Directorate for Security chief for Kandahar Gen. Mohammad Fahim Momin said Dec. 16, Pajhwok reported.
Agenda: With Reva Bhalla STRATFOR
Afghanistan: Militias Reportedly Create Havoc December 16, 2010
Militias in Afghanistan are reportedly terrorizing the locals and hampering aid organizations in the north, with the Taliban only a small part of the issue, according to international aid workers, Afghan government officials, local residents and diplomats, The New York Times reported Dec. 16. NATO has been trying to turn many of the militias into local police forces. Sometimes paid by the Afghan intelligence service, the groups, sometimes calls “arbekais,” also include armed gangs demanding food, shelter or money. Some are linked to former mujahedeen, others to village elders. In Takhar province, they provide protection for warlords trafficking narcotics. These militias are reportedly making the Taliban more attractive. Foreign militants are also in the region.
Germany: Soldiers To Leave Afghanistan In 2011 December 16, 2010
Germany will begin withdrawing its forces in Afghanistan at the end of 2011 according to Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle who made the comments in parliament on Dec. 16, DPA reported. Westerwelle said the deployments to Afghanistan was “the right thing to do” to defend its own security, however it must not go on without end, “and that is the right thing too.”
The Pakistani View of the U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan STRATFOR
Afghanistan: Militias Reportedly Create Havoc December 16, 2010
Militias in Afghanistan are reportedly terrorizing the locals and hampering aid organizations in the north, with the Taliban only a small part of the issue, according to international aid workers, Afghan government officials, local residents and diplomats, The New York Times reported Dec. 16. NATO has been trying to turn many of the militias into local police forces. Sometimes paid by the Afghan intelligence service, the groups, sometimes calls “arbekais,” also include armed gangs demanding food, shelter or money. Some are linked to former mujahedeen, others to village elders. In Takhar province, they provide protection for warlords trafficking narcotics. These militias are reportedly making the Taliban more attractive. Foreign militants are also in the region.
MIDDLE EAST
Hezbollah Searches for an Alternative Explosive STRATFOR
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Venezuela's Chavez Pushes Last-Minute Legislation STRATFOR
Mexico: Update On Prison Escape In Nuevo Laredo December 17, 2010
The public security secretary for Tamaulipas state confirmed that 141 prisoners escaped from the Nuevo Laredo prison, Milenio reported Dec. 17. Prison director Jesus Horacio Sepulveda has been reported missing and initial investigations have suggested that the escape occurred through a service entrance and was aided by prison guards.
Dispatch: Venezuelan Presidental Powers Expand
MISC
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com
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