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USA
U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 27, 2010 STRATFOR
EUROPE
The New British Government's Plans for the Military STRATFOR
ASIA
Dispatch: Consequences of a Suicide Attack in Istanbul STRATFOR
Suicide Bombing in Istanbul STRATFOR
China Security Memo: Oct. 28, 2010 STRATFOR
RUSSIA
Russia, France: Shipbuilding Agreement Signed November 1, 2010
Russia’s United Shipbuilding Corporation (OSK) and French naval defense company DCNS signed an agreement Nov. 1 establishing cooperation to build naval and civilian vessels, including Mistral ships, Interfax reported. The agreement lays the foundation for cooperation between French and Russian companies in civilian and military shipbuilding, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and chairman of OSK’s board of directors Igor Sechin said. The agreement met the interests of both states, the French president’s chief of staff Gen. Benoit Puga said. The agreement provides an exchange of technology and experience in shipbuilding, OSK president Roman Trotsenko said. The nations will work where profit is possible, Trotsenko said, adding that the cooperation is specifically for technologically complex ships, including icebreakers and other ships used for the exploration of the Arctic.
Russia: Plan To Buy 2 Helicopter Carriers Confirmed October 31, 2010
Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov confirmed the ministry plans to purchase two foreign-built helicopter carriers, and that it will be purchasing the ships with full technical documentation so Russia can produce its own carriers at a later point, RIA Novosti reported Oct. 31. France has negotiated with Russia on the sale of Mistral-class helicopter carriers for the Russian navy, and unnamed sources said Russia has also invited offers from ship manufacturers in Spain, the Netherlands and South Korea.
Russia: Continued Supply Of Precision-guided Projectiles To Iran October 29, 2010
Russia is continuing to supply Iran with weapons in accordance with five previously signed contracts not under the purview of the United Nations, one of which involves the supply of Krasnopol precision-guided projectiles, an unnamed Russian source said, Interfax reported. According to the source, the Krasnopol projectiles are neither directly nor indirectly subject to international sanctions.
Russia: Missile Test Launch A Success October 29, 2010
The Russian nuclear submarine Dmitriy Donskoy successfully carried out the underwater test launch of the Bulava sea-based intercontinental ballistic missile on Oct. 29 according to the Russian Defence Ministry, Interfax-AVN reported. The missile was launched from the White Sea and followed the predetermined flight plans to deliver the warheads to the Kura test-range in Kamchatka, a Defence Ministry source stated.
IRAN
Iran: Navy To Use Helicopters To Increase Operational Range November 1, 2010
The Iranian navy is planning to equip all its destroyers and military vessels with military helicopters as part of a strategy to increase the operational range of its fleets, Fars News Agency reported Nov. 1, citing Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian navy Gholam Reza Khadem Biqam. However, Iran’s missile frigates will not be equipped with helicopters as they do not have the capacity to carry them, Biqam said. The navy will begin to use the helicopters following personnel training and minor modifications to the navigational systems, Biqam said.
U.S.-Iran Negotiations Redux STRATFOR
IRAQ
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
ISRAEL
Israel: Intelligence Accessible Through Civilian Means November 1, 2010
Militant groups can now access intelligence through civilian Internet applications that rivals what government spies can obtain, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin said on Nov. 1, Reuters reported. Diskin was speaking at a homeland security conference in Tel Aviv. He said intelligence that was once only accessible to governments is now available from systems like Google Earth, Internet cameras deployed throughout the globe and linked to the Web, and iPhone applications that allow access to real-time intelligence.
Israel: U.S. Negotiates Palestinian, Israeli Border October 29, 2010
The United States is negotiating the future borders of the Palestinian territories with Israel proposing the option that Israel lease the land in east Jerusalem from the Palestinians for 40 to 99 years, according to a report released by Asharq Al Awsat on Oct. 29, The Jerusalem Post reported. Palestinian sources confirmed the report but added Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is not aware of the details.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: District Recaptured From Taliban xNovember 1, 2010
Afghan governor Musa Khan Akbarzada said national security forces, including police, army and intelligence had recaptured the Khogyani district from the Taliban in Ghazni on Oct. 31 seizing the administration and are now in control of the district, Dawn News reported Nov.1.
Afghanistan: Shortage Of Trainers For Afghan Forces October 31, 2010
NATO is facing a shortage of training instructors for Afghan forces and has begun sending hundreds of Afghans out of the country for training, Reuters reported Oct. 31. NATO training supervisor Lt. Gen. William Caldwell said he was short 900 instructors, mainly for police but also logistics, aviation training, doctors and communications specialists. He added that 440 of the needed instructors are for critical roles that must be filled by June 2011. He added that 300 Afghan troops have been sent to the United Arab Emirates for training with French troops and others will be sent to Turkey for police training.
Notions of Progress and Negotiation in Afghanistan STRATFOR
As U.S. Col. Harry Summers so clearly articulated, negotiation is achieved militarily when military power is applied in such a way as to impose upon the enemy a choice: negotiate on American terms and on American timetables, or be destroyed. Negotiation with the Taliban must be understood first and foremost as lacking that latter possibility.
Australia: Afghan Warlord's Militants Train With Special Forces October 28, 2010
Six militants loyal to Matiullah Khan, an Oruzgan warlord with whom Dutch forces refused to work because of alleged connections to murder and extortion, flew to Australia to train with elite Australian special forces as a part of a strategy to strengthen military operations against the Taliban, Brisbane Times reported Oct. 28. The militants were shown combat training displays and met with Australian officers at the Cultana base in southern Australia and Holsworthy Barracks in outer Sydney.
Afghanistan: French Troops May Withdraw Early 2011 October 28, 2010
French soldiers may withdraw from Afghanistan in early 2011, said French Defense Minister Herve Morin, adding the plan is not connected to threats against France in an audio message from Osama Bin Laden, AFP reported Oct. 28. Morin said NATO set the withdrawal framework and the timetable was set by Barack Obama stating the first U.S. troops leave Afghanistan in 2011.
MIDDLE EAST
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Mexico: Man Arrested In Murder Of U.S. Citizens November 1, 2010
Mexican authorities announced the arrest of Miguel Angel Nevarez Escajeda, who is believed to be directly involved in the deaths of U.S. citizens Leslie A. Enriquez and Arthur H. Redelfs on March 13 in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, Milenio reported Nov. 1. Authorities did not say where Nevarez Escajeda was found, but mentioned that an anonymous phone call led to his arrest, La Cronica De Hoy reported.
Colombia: Army Commander Killed By FARC November 1, 2010
Col. Javier Garcia Nieto, the commander of the Colombian army’s 27th Engineer Battalion, was killed near Puerto Asis, Putumayo department, when his vehicle was hit with an improvised explosive device allegedly planted by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Caracol Radio reported Nov. 1. Three members of Garcia Nieto’s security detail were injured in the attack.
Brazil's Ruling Party Wins the Presidency STRATFOR
Mexico: Prison Chief Arrested For Alleged Drug Gang Ties October 29, 2010
Francisco Javier Gomez Meza, the director of Puente Grande maximum-security federal prison in Guadalajara, was arrested Oct. 28 for alleged ties to drug gangs, according to a statement from the Public Safety Department on Oct. 29, AP reported. The investigation was related to Meza’s time as head of police deployments at the Federal Investigative Agency, a now-defunct police force attached to the Attorney General’s Office, from 2001-2008.
Mexico: Nine Police Killed, 10 Injured October 29, 2010
Nine police were killed and 10 injured with one missing after an ambush in the Tepacaltepec municipality in the Mexican state of Michoacan on Oct. 28 according to Mexican authorities, Xinhua reported. The attack took place in the afternoon near the Chilatan reservoir after five police cars attended the scene following reports of an armed man in the area. The gunmen were armed with assault rifles including AK-47s, AR-15s and a 40 caliber grenade launcher.
Dispatch: Drug Politics in Mexico STRATFOR
MISC
Somalia: Pirates Seize Tanker 600 Nautical Miles From Coast October 30, 2010
Somali pirates hijacked a Panama-flagged tanker with 24 crew members nearly 1,100 kilometers (600 nautical miles) off the Somali coast, according to the EU Naval Force (EU NAVFOR) and pirates, Reuters reported Oct. 30. The crew comprises a Romanian, three Greeks, four Montenegrins and 16 Filipinos. The owner of the 72,825 metric ton tanker confirmed that it had been seized, EU NAVOR said.
New Tactic for Countering Somali Pirates STRATFOR
The strategy involves a prepared plan for sequestering the crew in a safe room containing supplies like food and water; a kill-switch that remotely disables the ship’s engine, electronic systems and fuel supplies; and communications equipment that can be used to send out distress signals. If the lack of navigational ability or hostages alone does not encourage the pirates to desert the ship, the crew’s isolation also buys time for naval forces or anti-piracy patrols to respond.
Intelligence Guidance: Week of Oct. 24, 2010 STRATFOR
Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com
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