USA
U.S.: National Security Adviser Downplays Libya Intelligence Assessment March 10, 2011
U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon played down the intelligence assessment of Libya that said Moammar Gadhafi’s forces would be better equipped than the rebel forces in a prolonged conflict, DPA reported March 10. Donilon said the assessment was one-dimensional and did not account for the international pressure affecting Gadhafi or the aid that the rebel forces could receive. Donilon said the analysis was based on Gadhafi’s military capabilities and did not account for dynamics that include the movement for change happening throughout the Middle East. There is an international arms embargo on Gadhafi that could limit his ability to fight and growing support for the opposition rebels, Donilon added.
U.S. Naval Update Map: March 9, 2011 STRATFOR
EUROPE
Developments in Renault's Espionage Scandal STRATFOR
ASIA
Pakistan: Cabinet Approves Talks To Buy 6 Submarines March 14, 2011
The Pakistani Cabinet gave the Defense Ministry permission to begin talks on the purchase of six submarines from China, Associated Press of Pakistan reported March 14.
China Political Memo: March 11, 2011 STRATFOR
RUSSIA
France: Russia To Buy 500 Combat Vehicles March 11, 2011
Russia and French military manufacturer Panhard are negotiating a $260 million purchase of 500 3.1 ton Vehicule Blinde Leger light armored vehicles on a 4x4 wheel platform for the Russian Federal Security Service border guards, according Panhard Chairman Christian Mons as stated on Russian arms trade watchdog Center for the Analysis of the World Arms Trade’s website, RIA Novosti reported March 11.
IRANIran: Paramilitary Group Launches Cyber Attacks March 14, 2011
Hackers working for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ paramilitary Basij group reportedly launched cyber attacks on the websites of Iran’s “enemies,” according to a state-owned Iranian newspaper, AP reported March 14. Basij acting commander Gen. Ali Fazli said Iran’s cyber army is made up of university teachers, students and clerics
Iran: Nuclear Services And Materials To Enter World Market - Official March 13, 2011
Iran will enter the world market in the export of nuclear materials and services, Fereydun Abbasi, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, said at the second National Resistance and Passive Defense Festival, adding, Iran plans to merchandize its nuclear material and services to other countries, IRNA reported March 13. Cooperation can be used as a deterrent, Abbasi said.
IRAQ
Iraq: U.S. Troop, Base Numbers March 14, 2011
The U.S. military has 47,000 troops on a total of 74 bases throughout Iraq, a U.S. Army spokesman said, AK News reported March 14.
Syria: Weapons Smuggled From Iraq Uncovered March 11, 2011
Syrian authorities discovered a large quantity of heavy, medium and light caliber weapons, bombs and night vision binoculars in a truck coming from Iraq through the al-Tanaf crossing point on March 7, SANA reported March 11. The Iraqi driver admitted that the truck’s owner had loaded the weapons in Baghdad and asked him to transport them to Syria in order to give them to someone in return for $5,000. The weapons are meant to destabilize internal security in Syria.
ISRAEL
Israel: Settlers, Palestinians ClashMarch 12, 2011
Israeli settlers in the West Bank’s Gush Etzion Region clashed with Palestinians in connection with the recent attack and deaths of five family members from Itamar, Ynet reported March 12. Dozens of settlers blocked a road and threw stones at Palestinians. Police and Israel Defense Force officials detained some settlers for questioning. The settlers came from the Beit Ayin settlement, local Palestinians stated, adding police threw tear gas grenades.
Israel: PM, Committee Approves New Housing Constriction In West Bank March 13, 2011
Israel will build several hundred homes for settlers in the Etzion bloc of settlements, Maale Adumim, Ariel and Kiryat Sefer in the West Bank after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a special session of a ministerial committee on settlement to approve the construction, Reuters reported March 13. Spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Nabil Abu Rdainah, said the decision to build the homes is wrong, unacceptable and will only create problems.
Intelligence Guidance: Questions on the West Bank Attack | STRATFOR
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: Afghan Security Forces To Take Over In 6 Areas March 10, 2011
Afghan security forces will soon replace NATO troops at six sites across the country, AP reported March 10, citing Wstern officials. The first phase of the transition will be in the provincial capitals of Lashkar Gah in the south, Herat in the west and Mazar-i-Sharif in the north. Next will be Bamiyan and Panjshir provinces, followed by all of Kabul province other than Surobi district (Afghan forces already are in charge of security for Kabul). NATO forces will either take on support roles in these areas or be sent home. Afghan Defense Minister Rahim Wardak said he expects NATO to endorse the list of areas for handover.
Afghanistan: At Least 33 Dead In Apparent Suicide Attack March 14, 2011
At least 33 people are dead following an apparent suicide attack on an army recruitment center in Kunduz, Afghanistan, BBC reported March 14, citing local officials. Also, more than 40 were injured as they waited at the center.
Afghanistan: NATO Seizes Shipment Of Iranian Rockets - Report March 9, 2011
NATO troops in Afghanistan seized nearly 50 Iranian-made rockets intended to help the Taliban in their spring campaign, an international intelligence official said, AP reported March 9. Acting on an intelligence tip, NATO forces intercepted the rockets, which were being carried in a three-truck convoy, Feb. 5 in southern Nimroz province near the Iran-Pakistan border. The 122 mm rockets, whose technical details match other models from Iran, have twice the range of Iranian-provided 107 mm rockets used by the Taliban since 2006, the official said. The official said the increased range of the rockets decreases their accuracy, making them more likely to inflict civilian casualties in heavily populated areas such as Kandahar city. NATO forces seized a total of 48 warheads, 49 fuses and 49 rocket mortars in the raid. The shipment is considered a serious escalation in Iran’s support for the Taliban insurgency, the official added.
MIDDLE EAST
Agenda: With George Friedman on The Persian Gulf STRATFOR
Egypt: ElBaradei Sets Condition For Presidential Run March 9, 2011
Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei said that he will run for Egypt’s presidency as long as a new democratic system is in place, AP reported March 9, citing Egyptian state TV. ElBaradei said that the new constitutional amendments proposed to move Egypt toward democracy, which limits a president to two four-year terms and opens to door for independents and opposition members to be candidates, are superficial. ElBaradei said that he appealed to Egypt’s military rulers to get rid of the amendments or to delay a scheduled March 19 vote on them. The changes do not limit the powers of the president or give enough time for political parties to form, ElBaradei said.
Saudi Arabia: Police Fired Rubber Bullets In Qatif - Witness March 10, 2011
Saudi police fired rubber bullets to disperse around 200 Shiite demonstrators March 10 in the eastern city of Qatif, according to a human rights activist, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Dispatch: French Support For Intervention in Libya | STRATFOR
Bahrain: UAE Sends 500 Police Officers March 14, 2011
The United Arab Emirates sent about 500 police officers to Bahrain to help maintain order, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nuhayyan said, Reuters reported March 14. Bahrain had requested assistance on ways to defuse tensions in the country, and other Gulf states would also help maintain stability, al-Nuhayyan said.
Dispatch: GCC Forces Move Into Bahrain | STRATFOR
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Mexico: New Gang Announces Presence In Michoacan March 10, 2011
Banners appearing in Morelia, Zitacuaro and Apatzingan, Michoacan state, announced the presence of a new gang calling itself the Knights Templar, AP reported March 10. The signs said that the Knights Templar will replace La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and prevent other gangs from taking over the state. The signs said the group offers its services to defend Michoacan residents and will take on the role previously performed by LFM. It also said it is committed to keeping order; preventing robberies, kidnappings and extortions; and protecting the state from rival gangs.
MISC
Japan's Impending Problems after the Earthquake | STRATFOR
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