USA
(California) Pipe bomb found outside El Dorado probation office. The El Dorado County Probation Department office in California was evacuated for 3 hours January 6 after a malfunctioned pipe bomb was found outside the building. Officials are investigating who left the device after they defused and removed it.
Slash: The $1.1 trillion budget deal announced last night by House and Senate negotiators includes a bludgeoning of the procurement budget of the Army's troubled DCGS-A intel system. Situation Report has learned that the budget deal cuts by $156 million the procurement budget of the Distributed Common Ground System that the Army has fought hard to protect and defend even as officials and members of Congress raise questions about its effectiveness - and its cost. The nearly 60 percent reduction in the system's procurement budget clearly amounts to a major defeat for the program.
At the same time, the NDAA budget bill, already passed last year, includes new reporting requirements on the system and breaks it up.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/us-naval-update-map-jan-9-2014
AFRICA
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Quest for Expanded Electricity Access
Libya: Deputy Industry Minister Assassinated January 12, 2014
Gunmen shot and killed Libyan Deputy Industry Minister Hassan al-Drowi while he was driving his car in Sirte, security officials said, Arab News reported Jan. 12. Officials also found explosives attached to al-Drowi's car and believe the country's hardline militants are responsible for the attack. Libya continues to face long-term security challenges in its post-Gadhafi era.
South Sudan: Rebels Seize Capital Of Upper Nile State January 14, 2014
South Sudanese rebels captured Malakal, the capital of the oil-rich Upper Nile state, rebels said, Bloomberg reported Jan. 14. A spokesman for the South Sudanese president said fighting in Malakal was ongoing after rebels pushed government forces back to the airport.
NIGHTWATCH 140108
South Sudan-Uganda: Ugandan President Museveni has made good on his threat of intervention and has sent troops in support of the South Sudan government. A military spokesman said 1,200 Ugandan soldiers are providing security at the airport, state house and other installations. He also said Ugandan aircraft have bombed several rebel positions.
According to the spokesman, President Museveni committed more troops and military equipment to South Sudan on Monday and Tuesday in response to a new request from South Sudan President Salva Kiir. The spokesman insisted that Ugandan soldiers are not involved in combat operations, however.
Comment: With the Ugandan military intervention the conflict has widened and become more serious. According to Ugandan analysts in Kampala, Ugandan intervention means that President Museveni suspects that agents of the Sudanese government in Khartoum are backing the fighters of Riek Machar and stirring up the tribes. They are the first to publish their suspicions that the Khartoum government is covertly backing Machar's rebels.
Museveni has a longstanding distrust for Sudanese President Bashir, who backed Ugandan rebels in the past. He also distrusts Machar, whom he reportedly considers a threat to Uganda. The prize in this struggle is control of the Sudanese oil fields which are in South Sudan.
ASIA
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan: Border Guards Clash January 11, 2014
A shootout between Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards erupted Jan. 11 in Kyrgyzstan's Batken region, leaving five Kyrgyz border guards, a Kyrgyz policeman and three Tajik border guards injured, the district police chief said, Interfax and RFE/RL reported. The cause of the incident is still unclear, though tensions in the region have been high for years amid a series of territorial disputes. The situation is now reportedly tense but stable. Additional Kyrgyz soldiers and police officers have been deployed to the area, witnesses said, but electricity lines were cut off during the clash
Bangladeshi Unrest and the Textiles Industry
Ukraine's Energy Shift Toward Russia
Thailand: Uncertainty, Unrest and Rumors of a Coup
NIGHTWATCH 140110
North Korea: On 9 January, the government in Pyongyang rejected South Korea's proposal for a round of separated family reunions during the celebration of the Chinese New Year holiday on 31 January.
A message conveyed to the Ministry of Unification in Seoul by North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said, "On the South side, war exercises go on without end and large scale combined US-ROK military drills will soon take place. Could scattered families and relatives reunite with peaceful hearts amidst the shells and bullets?"
"Scattered families' and relatives' reunions were originally raised by us last year and reached the stage of being put into action, but then they could not be realized due to the arrogance and hostility of the South side authorities."
"If the South side's proposal for reunions of scattered relatives and families over the New Year stemmed from a sincere desire to reduce the pain of division and improve North-South relations, then good. If nothing else takes place on the South side and there is the intent to discuss our proposal together then we will be able to talk at a good time."
Comment: The North's rejection is significant for several reasons. Despite Kim Jong Un's unctuous statements about improving North-South relations in 2014 in his new year's message, obviously, the North is not prepared to make good on his promise or it was just another lie.
The second point is that South Korean President Park called Kim's bluff on improving relations and found that it is phony.
Finally, the implication of this exchange is that the North's leadership is not sufficiently stable to handle a major foreign policy initiative. Park's offer has proven to be an excellent tactic to clarify the leadership's stability in Pyongyang. The conclusion is that it is not stable or confident enough to talk about separated families, which all Koreans consider a national tragedy.
Agriculture. Defector news outlets have confirmed that Agriculture is the main thrust of economic development this year. As one source said, the regime is promoting 2014 as the year of "putting farming first."
The communist party cadre has received orders to implement the new national priority and has been badgering people three months early to increase the fertilizer quota, which consists of humus, animal waste and human night soil. Every person has a quota to fill or has to buy a waiver chit. The goal is to achieve a bumper harvest.
According to reports from inside the North, people who are scatologically challenged are stealing human night soil to meet the quotas.
Comment: For those analysts who misunderstood Kim's speech, the main thrust for 2014 is inward. The era of outreach and innovation died with Chang Sung-taek. This year appears to be a giant leap backward.
The last time food production was the highest national priority was in 1993 when Kim Il-song replaced military first production with agriculture and production of consumer good as the top national priorities. Kim Il-song also terminated the national planning bureaucracy that year because all of the North's Seven-Year Plans had failed. The country was destitute.
Kim Jong Un lacks the authority and charisma to enable him to mimic his grandfather's action or even to pursue the profitable connections that his late Uncle had created. He continues to try to act as if he is the reincarnation of Kim Il-song, but consistently shows he has none of his grandfather's experience or leadership credentials.
Thus, Kim's new year's speech urged the farmers to apply more science and technology to improve the harvest as a major priority. Whoever wrote the speech deceived little Kim or its out of touch because there is no money for fertilizer and no science or technology for farming. Nevertheless, the Party cadre did the best it could and ordered everybody to collect more feces.
EUROPE
Portugal Prepares for a Challenging Year as Its Bailout Nears Expiration
Switzerland's Selective Approach to European Integration
In the Netherlands, Conditions Are Ripe for Protest
A Hungarian Plan to Buy Land in Romania?
MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA
Mexican police start to disarm vigilantes in Michoacan
Federal police forces have been deployed to Michoacan to restore order
Mexican security forces sent to quell unrest in the western state of Michoacan have started disarming local vigilante groups, state officials say.
The "self-defence groups" took control of a number of towns in an effort to drive out members of a drug cartel.
The army moved into Nueva Italia, where vigilantes and members of the Knights Templar drug gang engaged in a fire fight on Sunday....
....Soldiers and marines have also moved into the towns of Nueva Italia, Paracuaro and Antunez.
Leaders of the "self-defence groups" have given contradictory statements as to whether they would disarm.
The leader of the General Council of the Community and Self-Defence Groups of Michoacan, Jose Manuel Mireles said in a video message from Mexico City - where he is being treated for injuries sustained in a helicopter crash - that he would "heed the call from the interior minister".
Jose Manuel Mireles said his men would "return to their daily business"
But in a subsequent video published on YouTube, Mr Mireles denied he had ordered his group to disarm, saying he could not give such orders without calling a meeting of the group's general council.
Other vigilante leaders were adamant they would not lay down arms.
Estanislao Beltran who heads a vigilante group in the town of Tepalcatepec said two of his men had been killed amid a tense standoff with federal security forces.
Some vigilante groups have refused to lay down arms, saying they will fight "to the end"
"We're here to the death, all of us," he warned...
...The vigilante groups first emerged in early 2013 as response to the violence perpetrated by the drug cartel, which ranges from extortion to kidnappings.
Local citizens said that they had no choice but to arm themselves as federal troops failed to guarantee their security.
The Knights Templar, which controls much of the methamphetamine trade to the United States, says the vigilantes have sided with their rivals of the New Generation cartel, something the "self-defence groups" fiercely deny.
Venezuel's President Reaches out to the Opposition
AFGHANISTAN
What Withdrawal? U.S. Pumps More Cash Into Afghanistan's $500 Million Dam
In October 2011, U.S. Marines in Afghanistan launched a massive operation, pushing northeast along treacherous Route 611 in Helmand province to tangle with insurgents in Kajaki, then one of the last districts in Helmand without a large presence of U.S. forces. The major goal at the time: Root out the Taliban in a series of firefights and connect the landmark hydroelectric facility in the region, the Kajaki Dam, with the rest of province. Doing so would allow at long last for the belated installation of a third turbine planned to jumpstart electricity for tens of thousands of people in the region.
More than two years later, what's left of the U.S. military and civilian presence in Afghanistan are trying, finally, to complete the project, which first began in 2002 and has cost an estimated $500 million. The U.S. Agency for International Development recently announced it will negotiate a sole-source contract for the installation of the dam's third and final hydroelectric turbine with Black and Veatch, the Kansas-based engineering company that has worked there for years. The project will likely cost about $75 million, according to a recent letter from John Sopko, the U.S. special inspector for Afghanistan. And it won't be completed until 2015, well after the last U.S. combat forces leave the country.
CHINA
China's Economy: Beijing Seeks Reform and Stability for Banks
IRAN
Iran: Nuclear Deal Will Be Implemented Jan. 20January 12, 2014
The interim nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers will take effect Jan. 20, the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the European Union said Jan. 12, Al Arabiya and Reuters reported. The International Atomic Energy Agency will then begin monitoring and verification activities to ensure that the deal is implemented. Though the U.S.-Iranian detente will probably endure through 2014, a comprehensive settlement will likely take more than 12 months to craft.
COMMENT: If you believe this crap, you really do need help
Iran: Nuclear Talks To Resume In February January 13, 2014
Iranian nuclear talks will likely resume in February, soon after a six-month agreement restricting Tehran's nuclear program takes effect, a diplomatic source said Jan. 13, Reuters reported. The first meeting will include EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.
Iran: First Installment Of Unblocked Funds To Arrive In February January 13, 2014
Iran on Feb. 1 will receive a $550 million installment of $4.2 billion being unblocked as part of a deal with the West, a U.S. official said Jan. 12, AFP reported Jan. 13. The payments will be equally distributed over a 180-day period, the official said.
NIGHTWATCH 140110
Iraq: Update. News services reported on 9 January that Sunni Arab tribal militias have forced al Qaida fighters from Fallujah. They also announced they will not allow government forces back into the city.
Comment: The cumulative result of neglect and ineptitude by the al-Maliki government and its military leaders plus the actions of al-Qaida-affiliated fighters apparently is a new awakening among the Sunni Arab tribes of Anbar Governate. They want nothing to do with either of the outsiders.
With appropriate support, the actions of the tribal sheikhs might yet justify the cost in American lives, limbs and treasure to give Fallujah back to them. However, that judgment hinges on the creation of an autonomous and self-sustaining Sunni Arab state in Anbar Governate, perhaps modeled after the Kurdish autonomous region in the north.
NIGHTWATCH 140114
Iran: Iran's nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, said a bill moving through Iran's parliament will force the country to increase its uranium enrichment. The bill has received support from 218 of the parliament's 290 members.
Comment: The bill has two key points. First it reaffirms that Iran has the right to enrich uranium, as the US and the West have accepted. Second, it directs that the Iranian executive enrich uranium as much as the parliament directs.
Iranian hard-liners, who constitute a majority of the parliament, have as much interest in blocking the new nuclear agreement as do hardliners in the US Congress.
The prospect of limited relief from US sanctions starting in February might be enough to restrain the hardliners for six months. The time term for the agreement begins on 20 January. Relaxed sanctions for six months constitute a major achievement for President Ruhani.
Iran: Moscow and Tehran Negotiating Oil Deal January 10, 2014
Iran and Russia are negotiating an oil-for-goods barter deal, Reuters reported Jan. 10. Under the terms of the deal, Moscow would buy up to 500,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods. The deal would defy Western sanctions against Iran.
IRAQ
Iraq: Militants Retake Parts Of Ramadi January 14, 2014
Sunni fighters have taken at least partial control of six neighborhoods in the southern and central parts of Ramadi, Iraqi police said Jan. 14, AFP reported. Two police officers were killed and five were injured in the fighting. Iraq's security forces face an ongoing conflict with al Qaeda-linked militants, whose ultimate goal is to destabilize the country in the hope of one day establishing a regional Islamic Emirate.
Iraq: At Least 10 Killed, 16 Injured In Baghdad Attacks January 14, 2014
At least 10 people were killed and 16 wounded by gunfire and bombings in Baghdad on Jan. 14, medical and security officials said, AFP reported. Two of those killed were a senior judge and his driver, in what seems to be a targeted attack. In the Shiite neighborhood of Sadr City, a car bomb killed four. No group has yet claimed these attacks.
Iraq: 13 Killed In Baghdad Explosions January 12, 2014
Two car bomb explosions killed at least 13 people across Baghdad on Jan. 12, officials said, AP reported. Both blasts targeted commuters; one occurred at a bus station in the city's Allawi area, while the other hit a cluster of buses and taxis in the Hurriyah neighborhood. Iraq's security forces face an ongoing conflict with al Qaeda-linked militants, whose ultimate goal is to destabilize the country in the hope of one day establishing a regional Islamic Emirate
ISRAEL
Ariel Sharon's Legacy in a Changing Israeli Neighborhood
Israel: New Settlements Announced January 11, 2014
Israel's housing ministry on Jan. 11 announced plans to build 1,400 new homes in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, Al Jazeera reported. The Israel Housing Ministry said it plans to construct more than 800 new housing units in the West Bank and 600 in East Jerusalem, while re-issuing tenders for another 582 units in East Jerusalem. If the United States determines that such settlements do not serve American interests (for example, because they radicalize the region and threaten the survival of Jordan), then Washington will force their abandonment by threatening to change its relationship with Israel.
RUSSIA
Russia: Bomb Defused, 5 Militants Arrested In Caucasus Town January 11, 2014
Five members of a banned militant group were arrested Jan. 11 in the southern Russian town of Nalchik, where a homemade bomb packed with shrapnel was defused, a spokesman for Russia's National Anti-Terrorism Committee said, Reuters reported. Nalchick is located in the Caucasus foothills, some 300 kilometers (190 miles) from Sochi, the host of the upcoming Winter Olympics. The anti-terrorism operation also seized ammunition and grenades. Russian authorities will struggle to guarantee safety to surrounding regions ahead of and during the games.
SYRIA
NIGHTWATCH 140108
Syria: On Wednesday, Syrian Islamist rebels seized control of a hospital used as a headquarters by forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the northern city of Aleppo. The al-Nusrah Front's leadership has called for an end to fighting between the Islamist groups and to focus on defeating the Asad government's forces. The Front is a member of the Islamist and jihadist coalition that is pushing back the ISIS fighters.
In response, the leadership of ISIS vowed to "crush" its Islamist opponents. Abu Mohammad al-Adnani warned opposition fighters that "none of you will remain, and we will make of you an example to all those who think of following the same path."
Comment: The Front is the designated representative in Syria of al-Qaida leader Zawahiri. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria was ordered to disband by Zawahiri last year, but has refused.
Syria: Russian, Chinese Warships Escort Removed Chemical Weapons January 14, 2014
A Russian missile cruiser and Chinese frigate have finished escorting the first batch of chemical weapons taken from Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry said, Voice of Russia reported Jan. 14. The weapons were being transported across the Mediterranean Sea by a Dutch cargo ship.
MIDDLE EAST GENERAL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
MISC
January 12, Baltimore Sun – (Maryland) Woman pepper sprays more than 20 people in failed Arundel Mills mall robbery. A woman was arrested January 12 at the Arundel Mills mall in Hanover, Maryland, after pepper spraying 25-30 people and pulling a knife on a security guard during a failed theft. Two people were taken to the hospital and at least two dozen people were treated at the scene for pepper spray exposure.
On Forecasting
Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Jan. 13, 2014
Softpedia – (International) World Poker Tour Amateur Poker League admits being hacked. Representative for the World Poker Tour Amateur Poker League (WPTAPL) confirmed that their systems were compromised the week of December 30, 2013 and clear text email addresses and passwords of over 175,000 users were leaked. Included in the leaked emails were some U.S. government email addresses from federal agencies.
Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM
No comments:
Post a Comment