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USA
U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 29, 2010 STRATFOR
EUROPE
Assessing the Latest European Terror Plot STRATFOR
U.S.: Poland Requests Increased American Presence October 1, 2010
Polish Defense Minister Bogdan Klich is requesting increased U.S. military presence in his country to improve security, DPA reported Oct. 1, citing local media. Klich met on Sept. 30 with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Washington to discuss ramping up cooperation between the countries’ special forces and basing U.S. fighter jets and transport aircraft in Poland, according to DPA.
Poland Tests U.S. Security Relationship STRATFOR
ASIA
The Philippine Push for Closer Ties with Washington STRATFOR
China: Sinopec Buying 40 Percent Of Repsol Brazil October 1, 2010
Chinese refiner Sinopec Group is due to buy 40 percent of Spanish oil major Repsol’s Brazilian arm for $7.1 billion to finance development of Repsol’s deposits in Brazil, Reuters reported Oct. 1. Through the deal, Sinopec will subscribe a $7.1 billion capital hike in Repsol Brazil, creating one of the largest private energy companies in Latin America. Sinopec said it is looking to target production of 200,000 barrels per day in oil equivalent from the blocks, which are primarily offshore
China Security Memo: Sept. 30, 2010 STRATFOR
RUSSIA
Russia: Second Car Bomb Defused September 30, 2010
Bomb technicians defused another car bomb in the southern Russian city of Stavropol on Sept. 30, just hours after the first one was defused in the same place, RIA Novosti reported, citing a local law enforcement source. The first car, containing a corpse and reportedly 15 - 30 kilograms (33 - 66 pounds) of explosives, was parked outside a caf in the southwest of the city. Another explosive device was found in a Lada Kalina car parked nearby. According to the National Anti-terrorism Committee, the combined power of the two devices was equivalent to 90 kilograms of TNT.
Russia: Active Phase Of Baltic Fleet Drill Begins September 29, 2010
Russian warships conducted a missile-firing exercise during the active phase of the Baltic Fleet drill, a Russian navy representative said Sept. 29, Interfax reported. The Yaroslav Mudryy and Pylky, along with ground-based missile and artillery systems, carried out the missile-firing drills, according to the official. Amphibious forces also practiced a landing on the Khmelevka training ground. Twenty vessels are participating in the drill, which will conclude in a few days.
Russia: Anti-Missile Defenses Being Developed September 29, 2010
Russia is developing advanced anti-missile defenses as a main element of strategic deterrence, Space Troops commander Lt. Gen. Oleg Ostapenko said, Itar-Tass reported Sept. 29. The national system of missile defense is in constant combat readiness, he said, adding that along with Russias missile warning system it ensures the implementation of the strategy of nuclear deterrence. Work is underway to significantly improve the systems combat capabilities and performance, Ostapenko stated.
IRAN
Iran: Russia Bans Nuclear-Based Investments Linked To Tehran September 30, 2010
Russia has prohibited Iranian investments in any commercial activities that involve uranium production or use of nuclear material and technology, Xinhua reported on Sept. 30, citing Interfax. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev issued the decree in compliance with the recent U.N. Security Council sanctions. “Any investment by Iran, its citizens and legal entities registered in Iran or located in its jurisdiction, or individuals or legal entities acting on their behalf or on their orders, or organizations owned or controlled by them, in any commercial activity related to uranium production, or production or use of nuclear material, equipment, special non-nuclear materials and relevant technologies subject to export control, will be prohibited in Russia,” the presidential decree said.
Japan: Oil Company Withdraws From Iranian Project September 30, 2010
The Japanese government and oil company Inpex Corp. will withdraw from an oil field development project in Azadegan, Iran, to avoid possible U.S. sanctions against the company, Kyodo reported Sept. 30. Inpex considered withdrawing from the program as a managerial policy, Japanese Trade Minister Akigiro Ohata said.
Iran: Newspaper Subsidies Will Be Based On Islamic Values - Minister September 29, 2010
Iranian newspapers that do not support the Islamic system will not receive government subsidies, Iranian Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Mohammad Hoseyni said, Mehr news agency reported Sept. 29. The announcement came at a gathering of Friday prayer leaders in Tehran on Sept. 28. The ministry will completely support newspapers that promote Islamic policies and principles, Hoseyni added.
IRAQ
Iraq: Kurdistan Declares Plan To Create 8 Peshmerga Brigades October 1, 2010
Eight brigades will be formed as part of a process to re-unify the Peshmerga forces, Gali Kurdistan Satellite TV reported Oct. 1, citing Jafar Mustafa Ali, minister for Peshmerga affairs in the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional government. He said some Peshmerga officers had trained in the Kurdistan Region and in Iraqi army bases outside the region. The U.S. Army has offered to provide assistance to strengthen the Peshmerga forces.
Continuing Divisions Between Iraq's Shiite Political Blocs STRATFOR
Agenda: With George Friedman STRATFOR
ISRAEL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: Opium Production Down By Half In 2010 September 30, 2010
In its 2010 Afghan Opium Survey released Sept. 30, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said Afghanistan’s opium production halved in 2010, but mounting prices may encourage farmers to go back to cultivating the crop. Yury Fedotov, Executive Director of UNODC, said despite the good news, the organization will have to continue to monitor the situation. This year production is estimated at 3,600 metric tons, down 48 percent from 2009. Shrinking supplies have driven the average price of dry opium to $169 a kilo, a 164 percent increase over last year when the price was $64 a kilo.
Afghanistan: Key Taliban Commander Captured September 30, 2010
Afghanistans Kunduz provincial police captured Taliban commander Shamsudin, alias Mullah Abu Bakr, and his bodyguard during an operation in Chardara district, Xinhua reported Sept. 30. The arrest will improve security in the area, the police chief said.
Afghanistan: Polish Troops To Leave By End Of 2014 - FM September 29, 2010
Poland’s armed forces will not stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, Polish Foreign Minister Rados?aw Sikorski said on Sept. 29 while meeting with Musa Khan, the governor of Ghazni province in Afghanistan, Warsaw Business Journal reported. Polish troops are based in the province. Sikorski said that Poland looks forward to an early withdrawal, should the province be ready for a handoff before 2014.
A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Sept. 22-28, 2010 STRATFOR
Afghanistan: NATO To Transfer City of Herat To Afghan Forces September 30, 2010
The Afghan city of Herat is prepared for NATO to start transitioning security responsibility to Afghan forces, commanding general for NATO’s Regional Command West, Italian Brig. Gen. Claudio Berto, said Sept. 30, Reuters reported. Other provinces and cities will take more time, but Herat is ready, Berto said. NATO Deputy Chief of Staff for Stability Operations, Italian Col. Vito Cracas, said that he has identified districts within Herat that will be ready for transition in six to nine months, and others that will be ready in 12 to 24 months, adding that some districts likely will not be ready even in two years’ time.
Dispatch: Strikes in Pakistan and Contradictory U.S. Missions STRATFOR
Pakistan: 27 NATO Tankers Torched October 1, 2010
Unidentified assailants torched at least 27 NATO oil tankers and three other vehicles enroute to Afghanistan, Geo TV reported Oct. 1. The ambush occurred near Shikarpur Super Highway where more than 30 NATO and International Security Assistance Force tankers were parked at a fuel station. Shikarpur police cordoned off the area and said 20 assailants conducted the attack.
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
U.S.: Tourist Shot In Mexican Waters September 30, 2010
A man and his wife were riding back from Mexico to Texas on jet skis when gunmen approached and shot the man in the head, Texas Zapata County Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez said Sept. 30, AP reported. Gonzalez said he contacted the consulate in Mexico to ask them to look for the man. The shooting happened near Falcon Lake, where Texas state officials warned of pirates patrolling the waters earlier this year.
Ecuador: Police, Soldiers Protesting Benefit Cuts Seize Airport September 30, 2010
Hundreds of police and soldiers protesting a new law that cuts their benefits have seized the main airport in Ecuador’s capital and cut off highway access to it, AP reported Sept. 30. The troops burned tires and fired tear gas after taking over bases in Quito, Guayaquil and other cities. President Rafael Correa has left to speak with a group of protesters.
Ecuador: 1st Part Of $1 Billion Chinese Loan Received September 29, 2010
Ecuador received the first installment of $800 million from a $1 billion Chinese loan on Sept. 29, El Comercio reported. The remaining $200 million, which is destined for the oil sector, will be negotiated in upcoming months.
Ecuador: Quito Airport Reopened September 30, 2010
Quito Mayor Augusto Barrera said the Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito has reopened after being shut down during police and military protests, El Universo reported Sept. 30.
Mexico: 2 Arrested In Mayor's Assassination September 30, 2010
Two men were arrested Sept. 30 in connection with the Sept. 23 assassination of Doctor Gonzales Mayor Prisciliano Rodriguez, AP reported, citing a statement by Nuevo Leon state Attorney General Alejandro Garza y Garza. The two men confessed to killing the mayor after the uncle of one of the suspects contracted them to do so because of a land dispute, Garza said. Allegedly, the men were paid an initial $3,000 and given an AR-15 rifle, an Uzi and a revolver on the day of the assassination. The man’s uncle called them on the day of the assassination to demand his money back if they did not carry out the killing, and then paid them other $3,000 after conducting the assassination.
Nicaragua: President Can Seek Third Term - Court October 1, 2010
Nicaragua’s Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) ruled that current President Daniel Ortega can run for a third presidential term, BBC News reported Oct. 1. The CSJ declared legal an October 2009 ruling by the Constitutional Court that deemed a constitutional prohibition against continuous presidential terms inapplicable. That ruling also limited a president to two terms in office. Ortega’s current term ends January 2012
Mexico: Armed Group Attacks Juarez Police Station October 1, 2010
A municipal police officer was killed and two others were injured in a firefight at a police station in Mexico’s Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, DPA reported Oct. 1. The officers were inside a patrol car parked outside the station in central Juarez when they were attacked. All three were injured, but one died later in hospital. Unidentified gunmen in two vehicles reportedly fired more than 100 rounds at the police, Milenio reported.
Mexico: To Decide Whether To Extradite Cartel Leader October 1, 2010
Mexico’s Office of the Attorney General will make a decision in mid-October on the U.S. petition to extradite cartel leader Edgar Valdez Villarreal, Mexican daily Milenio reported Oct. 1. Valdez, known by his alias “La Barbie,” is a U.S. citizen. He was petitioned in early September to be extradited to the United States and is currently being held on a 40-day detention in Mexico.
MISC
Changes to the Egyptian Presidential Succession Plan? STRATFOR
Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com
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