Officer Down

Trooper Tony Radulescu
Washington State Patrol
End of Watch: Thursday, February 23, 2012
Age: 44
Tour: 16 years


Trooper Tony Radulescu was shot and killed while making a traffic stop on State Route 16 at Anderson Hill Road, in Gorst, shortly before 1:00 am.


He had radioed in his location and the pickup truck's license plate and description to dispatchers. When dispatchers were unable to contact him for several minutes a Kitsap County sheriff's deputy was sent to check on his status and discovered him laying wounded outside of his patrol car. He was transported to St. Joseph Medical Center in Tacoma where he succumbed to his wounds a short time later.


The vehicle that Trooper Radulescu had stopped was found abandoned on a country road approximately three hours later. A SWAT team deployed to the registered owner's home and as they approached it the suspect committed suicide.


Trooper Radulescu was a military veteran and had served with the Washington State Patrol for 16 years.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch


Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

First John Conyers....

John Conyers is one of the worse members of the Congress and as dirty as the day is long. Anyone who thinks he should vote yes on a multi-trillion dollar take over of over a sixth of our economy without reading the bill.

During his speech at a National Press Club luncheon, House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers (D-Mich.), questioned the point of lawmakers reading the health care bill.

“I love these members, they get up and say, ‘Read the bill,’” said Conyers.

“What good is reading the bill if it’s a thousand pages and you don’t have two days and two lawyers to find out what it means after you read the bill?”

But for some reason he is continually reelected. Just like Maxine Waters, Sheila Jackson Lee and Charlie Rangle they will die in office. Even if found in bed with a live or dead child they will win again.

But here is another example of what Mr Conyers is and what he thinks about his voters.

John Conyers Pledges to Make Right after Blight Inflates Neighbor's Insurance: MyFoxDETROIT.com

Blight causes woman's insurance to jump to $7,000

DETROIT (WJBK) - Remember when we told you about the blighted property Congressman John Conyers owns on Detroit's east side?

You know the one. The fallin' down, peelin' back, pile o'dump that looked like it was reverting back to nature?

It's winter time now, and all those wild greens have died and fallen to the ground. It might look better to some, but not to the neighbor next door who's now being forced to shell out her own green.

According to her, er yearly homeowners insurance jumped from $1,700 - to $7,000!

What in the world could have caused that?

"They raised it because of the abandoned house next door. They said my house is now being rated up because of the risk of the house next door catching on fire," she said.

Yup. The same house. Seven thousand dollars insurance for a house in the hood? These homes aren't worth that much!

So let's catch up. The home was originally owned by the Congressman's mother. She signed it over to him, then he signed it over to his wife Monica - who currently resides in a federal prison for bribery.

We have to pay for her legal bill, remember?...

Then again it's like he really lives in Detroit. He lives in Washington and keeps his residence for voting purposes in Detroit. But the people there are stupid enough to vote him in again and again and again. If his damage only afflicted his voters I would have no real issue. But he is inflicting pain on me and mine.

But the stupidity of Detroit is not limited to it's federal representation.

Toy Guns Becoming A Criminal Offense?

DETROIT (WWJ) – State lawmakers are currently reviewing legislation that targets the use of certain toy guns. A planned proposal before the Senate would make it a crime to possess a toy gun that has its required markings removed or by having a real gun that is made up to look like a toy.

State Senate Republican Rick Jones said that this has become a major problem, especially within the gang community. “People are taking imitation firearms that look real, cutting off the orange end and then threatening people,” he said.

Supporters of the proposed legislation have also cited a recent case where a police officer was forced to shoot a gang member who was aiming a toy gun without its required markings. Jones believes this proposal will be vital in preventing incidents such as this from occurring in the future.

“This is an important package to control this problem,” Jones said.

If the legislation is passed, people who possess these toy guns and use it to commit a felony, would be punishable for up to 18 months behind bars and be subject to fines.

Normally such stupidity is pushed by leftists but again Republicans have our idiots. John McCain anyone?

Mr Jones I really doubt the world is worse off for the death of the gang member. And I am more happy the cop went home. So get your focus right. The problem is not the plastic gun. It's the moron with it aiming it at a cop.

Damned Detroit, once such a great city and now you have this.

Security Weekly: The Myth of the End of Terrorism, February 23, 2012

By Scott Stewart

In this week's Geopolitical Weekly, George Friedman discussed the geopolitical cycles that change with each generation. Frequently, especially in recent years, those geopolitical cycles have intersected with changes in the way the tactic of terrorism is employed and in the actors employing it.

The Arab terrorism that began in the 1960s resulted from the Cold War and the Soviet decision to fund, train and otherwise encourage groups in the Middle East. The Soviet Union and its Middle Eastern proxies also sponsored Marxist terrorist groups in Europe and Latin America. They even backed the Japanese Red Army terrorist group. Places like South Yemen and Libya became havens where Marxist militants of many different nationalities gathered to learn terrorist tradecraft, often instructed by personnel from the Soviet KGB or the East German Stasi and from other militants.

The Cold War also spawned al Qaeda and the broader global jihadist movement as militants flocking to fight the Soviet troops who had invaded Afghanistan were trained in camps in northern Pakistan by instructors from the CIA's Office of Technical Services and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate. Emboldened by the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, and claiming credit for the subsequent Soviet collapse, these militants decided to expand their efforts to other parts of the world.

The connection between state-sponsored terrorism and the Cold War ran so deep that when the Cold War ended with the Soviet Union's collapse, many declared that terrorism had ended as well. I witnessed this phenomenon while serving in the Counterterrorism Investigations Division of the Diplomatic Security Service (DSS) in the early 1990s. While I was in New York working as part of the interagency team investigating the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, a newly appointed assistant secretary of state abolished my office, declaring that the DSS did not need a Counterterrorism Investigations Division since terrorism was over.

Though terrorism obviously did not end when the Berlin Wall fell, the rosy sentiments to the contrary held by some at the State Department and elsewhere took away the impetus to mitigate the growing jihadist threat or to protect diplomatic facilities from it. The final report of the Crowe Commission, which was established to review the twin August 1998 bombing attacks against the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, explicitly noted this neglect of counterterrorism and security programs, as did the 9/11 Commission report.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks triggered a shift in international geopolitics by leading the United States to concentrate the full weight of its national resources on al Qaeda and its supporters. Ironically, by the time the U.S. government was able to shift its massive bureaucracy to meet the new challenge, creating huge new organizations like the Department of Homeland Security, the efforts of the existing U.S. counterterrorism apparatus had already badly crippled the core al Qaeda group. Though some of these new organizations played important roles in helping the United States cope with the fallout of its decision to invade Iraq after Afghanistan, Washington spent billions of dollars to create organizations and fund programs that in hindsight were arguably not really necessary because the threats they were designed to counter, such as al Qaeda's nuclear briefcase bombs, did not actually exist. As George Friedman noted in the Geopolitical Weekly, the sole global superpower was badly off-balance, which caused an imbalance in the entire global system.

With the continued diminution of the jihadist threat, underscored by the May 2011 death of Osama bin Laden and the fall in Libya of the Gadhafi regime (which had long employed terrorism), once again we appear on the brink of a cyclical change in the terrorism paradigm. These events could again lead some to pronounce the death of terrorism.

Several developments last week served to demonstrate that while the perpetrators and tactics of terrorism (what Stratfor calls the "who" and the "how") may change in response to larger geopolitical cycles, such shifts will not signal the end of terrorism itself.

The Nature of Terrorism

There are many conflicting definitions of terrorism, but for our purposes we will loosely define it as politically motivated violence against noncombatants. Many terrorist acts have a religious element to them, but that element is normally related to a larger, political goal: Both a militant anti-abortion activist seeking to end legalized abortion and a jihadist seeking to end the U.S. military presence in Iraq may act according to religious principles, but they ultimately are pursuing a political objective.

Terrorism is a tactic, one employed by a wide array of actors. There is no single creed, ethnicity, political persuasion or nationality with a monopoly on terrorism. Individuals and groups of individuals from almost every conceivable background -- from late Victorian-era anarchists to Klansmen to North Korean intelligence officers -- have conducted terrorist attacks. Because of the impreciseness of the term, Stratfor normally does not refer to individuals as terrorists. In addition to being a poor descriptor, "terrorist" tends to be a politically loaded term.

Traditionally, terrorism has been a tactic of the weak, i.e., those who lack the power to impose their political will through ordinary political or military means. As Carl von Clausewitz noted, war is the continuation of politics by other means; terrorism is a type of warfare, making it also politics by other means. Because it is a tactic used by the weak, terrorism generally focuses on soft, civilian targets rather than more difficult-to-attack military targets.

The type of weapon used does not define terrorism. For example, using a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device against an International Security Assistance Force firebase in Afghanistan would be considered an act of irregular warfare, but using it in an attack on a hotel in Kabul would be considered an act of terrorism. This means that militant actors can employ conventional warfare tactics, unconventional warfare tactics and terrorism during the same campaign depending on the situation.

Terrorist attacks are relatively easy to conduct if they are directed against soft targets and if the assailant is not concerned with escaping after the attack, as was the case in the Mumbai attacks in 2008. While authorities in many countries have been quite successful in foiling attacks over the past couple of years, governments simply do not have the resources to guard everything. When even police states cannot protect everything, some terrorist attacks invariably will succeed in the open societies of the West.

Terrorist attacks tend to be theatrical, exerting a strange hold over the human imagination. They often create a unique sense of terror dwarfing reactions to natural disasters many times greater in magnitude. For example, more than 227,000 people died in the 2004 Asian tsunami versus fewer than 3,000 on 9/11, yet the 9/11 attacks produced a worldwide sense of terror and a geopolitical reaction that has had a profound and unparalleled impact on world events over the past decade. 

Cycles and Shifts

A number of events last week illustrate the changes happening in the terrorism realm and demonstrate that, while terrorism may change, it is not going to end.

On Feb. 17, the FBI arrested a Moroccan man near the U.S. Capitol in Washington who allegedly sought to conduct a suicide attack on the building. The suspect, Amine el Khalifi, is a clear example of the shift in the jihadist threat from one based on the al Qaeda core group to one primarily deriving from grassroots jihadists. As Stratfor has noted for several years, while these grassroots jihadists pose a more diffuse threat because they are harder for national intelligence and law enforcement agencies to focus on than hierarchical groups, the threat they pose is less severe because they generally lack the terrorist tradecraft required to conduct a large-scale attack. Because they lack such tradecraft, these grassroots militants tend to seek assistance to conduct their plots. This assistance usually involves acquiring explosives or firearms, as in the el Khalifi case, where an FBI informant posing as a jihadist leader provided the suspect with an inert suicide vest and a submachine gun prior to the suspect's arrest.

While many in the media tend to ridicule individuals like el Khalifi as inept, it is important to remember that had he succeeded in finding a real jihadist facilitator rather than a federal informant, he could have killed many people in an attack. Richard Reid, who many people refer to as the "Kramer of al Qaeda" after the bumbling character from the television show Seinfeld, came very close to taking down a jumbo jet full of people over the Atlantic because he had been equipped and dispatched by others.

Still, the fact remains that the jihadist threat now predominantly stems from unequipped grassroots wannabes rather than teams of highly trained operatives sent to the United States from overseas, like the team that executed the 9/11 attacks. This demonstrates how the jihadist threat has diminished in recent years, a trend we expect to continue. This will allow Washington to increasingly focus attention on things other than jihadism, such as the fragmentation of Europe, the transformation of global economic production and Iran's growing regional power. It will mark the beginning of a new geopolitical cycle.

Last week also brought us a series of events highlighting how terrorism may manifest itself in the new cycle. On Feb. 13, Israeli diplomatic vehicles in New Delhi, India, and Tbilisi, Georgia, were targeted with explosive devices. In Tbilisi, a grenade hidden under a diplomatic vehicle was discovered before it could detonate. In New Delhi, a sticky bomb placed on the back of a diplomatic vehicle wounded the wife of the Israeli defense attache as she headed to pick up her children from school.

On Feb. 14, an Iranian man was arrested after being wounded in an explosion at a rented house in Bangkok. The blast reportedly occurred as a group was preparing improvised explosive devices for use against Israeli targets in Bangkok. Two other Iranians were later arrested (one in Malaysia), and Thai authorities are seeking three more Iranian citizens, two of whom have reportedly returned to Iran, alleged to have assisted in the plot. 

While these recent Iranian plots failed, they nonetheless highlight how the Iranians are using terrorism as a tactic in retaliation for attacks Israel and Israeli surrogates have conducted against individuals associated with Iran's nuclear program.

It is also important to bear in mind as this new geopolitical cycle begins that terrorism does not just emanate from foreign governments, major subnational actors or even transnational radical ideologies like jihadism. As we saw in the July 2011 attacks in Norway conducted by Anders Breivik and in older cases involving suspects like Eric Rudolph, Timothy McVeigh and Theodore Kaczynski in the United States, native-born individuals who have a variety of grievances with the government or society can carry out terrorist attacks. Such grievances will certainly persist.

Geopolitical cycles will change, and these changes may cause a shift in who employs terrorism and how it is employed. But as a tactic, terrorism will continue no matter what the next geopolitical cycle brings.

The Myth of the End of Terrorism COPYRIGHT STRATFOR.COM

New Hampshire used to be a beacon of common sense in the north east.

Then we hear about crap like this.

Man said he fired to stop burglar, now faces felony charges

FARMINGTON — A 61-year-old man is facing felony charges after he said he fired a shot into the ground to apprehend a burglar Saturday afternoon.

After discovering someone had rummaged through the drawers and taken items from his home on Ten Rod Road, Dennis Fleming said he grabbed a .38 caliber handgun from a shelf, went outside and spotted a man with a backpack walking down the road.

“It's a violation. I was pissed,” Fleming said, adding he realized he should have called police, but wasn't sure officers would arrive in time.

The sound of a crash at a neighbor's home — just over 1,000 feet away — drew Fleming's attention; he spotted the same man he'd seen on the road coming out of his neighbor's window.

Fleming said he wasn't sure he could stop the man, so he fired his pistol once into the ground — far off to the side — to detain the man, later identified as Joseph Hebert, 27, of 70 Bunker St.

“I just wanted him to take me serious,” Fleming said. “He did.”

Fleming said he unloaded the pistol and put it on a nearby rock after a couple of his neighbors arrived to restrain Hebert, who police said had broken his heel jumping out of Fleming's second-floor window.

Bastard will probably sue the owner...

After searching the backpack, Fleming said he found two pocket watches, some decorative pins, a handful of rubber bands, some rubber gloves and some tape that Hebert had taken from his house.

...Police Chief Scott Roberge said officers had contacted the Strafford County Attorney's Office, which recommended Fleming be charged with reckless conduct, a class B felony, for discharging his weapon.

“My understanding is that he (Fleming) fired a warning shot,” Roberge said.

Strafford County Attorney Thomas Velardi could not be reached for comment.

Fleming said he takes responsibility for his actions, which could result in 3 1/2 to 7 years in prison if he is convicted.

“I'm hoping it won't come to that, but I've got broad shoulders, so I'll deal with it,” Fleming said, adding he has 14 grandchildren and five great-grandchildren.

“Even knowing what I face, I would do it again,” Fleming said.

Fleming said he's surprised at the reaction of his neighbors, many of who have shaken his hand and thanked him.

“This is something that has struck a chord — nationwide,” Fleming said, noting he's received a tremendous amount of support from around the area and has been contacted by people as far away as the Midwest and Utah.

Herbert, who remains at Strafford County Jail, entered no plea to the three felony charges — two counts of burglary and possession of Vicodin — during his video arraignment in Rochester District Court Tuesday.

He admitted to being an addict and asked to be released so he could get the help he needs. Herbert, who appeared on crutches, also asked to be confined at his home, arguing he is not a flight risk, as he broke his heel.

“I've been very cooperative to this point,” Herbert said, adding he'd showed police several homes he allegedly stole from in town.

The prosecution argued against releasing Herbert, noting he was convicted of possession of controlled drugs, criminal threatening, robbery, criminal mischief and for violating probation in New Hampshire between 2004 and 2006. He added Herbert also was twice charged with breaking and entering in Massachusetts in 2010 and 2011....

...Fleming, who was released on personal recognizance, is scheduled to be arraigned in Rochester District Court March 20.

Hopefully the grand jury will look at the DA and say "You're kidding...you want me to indict this man for protecting his friend's house...not here pal.." If Mr Flaming has a legal defense fund I will post it and donate to it.

Is there any question why Iran wants nukes...

From the widow of an assassinated nuke scientist.

Wife of Assassinated Scientist: Annihilation of Israel "Mostafa's Ultimate Goal"

TEHRAN (FNA)- The wife of Martyr Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan Behdast, who was assassinated by Mossad agents in Tehran in January, reiterated on Tuesday that her husband sought the annihilation of the Zionist regime wholeheartedly.

"Mostafa's ultimate goal was the annihilation of Israel," Fatemeh Bolouri Kashani told FNA on Tuesday.

Bolouri Kashani also underlined that her spouse loved any resistance figure in his life who was willing to fight the Zionist regime and supported the rights of the oppressed Palestinian nation.

Iran's 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan Behdast, a chemistry professor and a deputy director of commerce at Natanz uranium enrichment facility, was assassinated during the morning rush-hour in the capital early January. His driver was also killed in the terrorist attack.

Roshan was killed on the second anniversary of the martyrdom of Iranian university professor and nuclear scientist, Massoud Ali Mohammadi, who was also assassinated in a terrorist bomb attack in Tehran in January 2010.

The method used for Roshan's assassination was similar to the 2010 terrorist bomb attacks against the then university professor, Fereidoun Abbassi Davani - who is now the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization - and his colleague Majid Shahriari. Abbasi Davani survived the attack, while Shahriari was martyred.

Another Iranian scientist, Dariush Rezaeinejad, was also assassinated through the same method on 23 July 2011...

Granted an Iranian news agency is not exactly an objective news source but it's not a rag like the NY Times. Now it's open that they are building a nuclear capability for one purpose, to destroy Israel. A couple of weeks ago an Israeli official said (paraphrasing) "President Obama should stop warning Israel about attacking Iran and start warning Iran abut threatening Idrael"

At least the Israeli's don't take this moron seriously.

Israel dismisses warnings from US about attacking Iran

Israel’s foreign minister on Wednesday said it's not the business of the United States whether his country decides to attack Iran.

Foreign Minister Avigor Lieberman said that warnings from the United States and Russia about an attack would not affect Israel’s decision-making. 

“[It] is not their business,” Lieberman said in an interview with an Israeli TV station Wednesday, according to The Associated Press.
“The security of the citizens of Israel, the future of the state of Israel, this is the Israeli government’s responsibility,” he said...

I hate to say it Mr Lieberman but Israel cannot rely on America's government right now. Hopefully after January you can.

Security Weekly: The State of the World: A Framework, February 21, 2012

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a new series on the national strategies of today's global power and other regional powers. This installment establishes a framework for understanding the current state of the world.

By George Friedman

The evolution of geopolitics is cyclical. Powers rise, fall and shift. Changes occur in every generation in an unending ballet. However, the period between 1989 and 1991 was unique in that a long cycle of human history spanning hundreds of years ended, and with it a shorter cycle also came to a close. The world is still reverberating from the events of that period.

On Dec. 25, 1991, an epoch ended. On that day the Soviet Union collapsed, and for the first time in almost 500 years no European power was a global power, meaning no European state integrated economic, military and political power on a global scale. What began in 1492 with Europe smashing its way into the world and creating a global imperial system had ended. For five centuries, one European power or another had dominated the world, whether Portugal, Spain, France, England or the Soviet Union. Even the lesser European powers at the time had some degree of global influence.

After 1991 the only global power left was the United States, which produced about 25 percent of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) each year and dominated the oceans. Never before had the United States been the dominant global power. Prior to World War II, American power had been growing from its place at the margins of the international system, but it was emerging on a multipolar stage. After World War II, it found itself in a bipolar world, facing off with the Soviet Union in a struggle in which American victory was hardly a foregone conclusion.

The United States has been the unchallenged global power for 20 years, but its ascendancy has left it off-balance for most of this time, and imbalance has been the fundamental characteristic of the global system in the past generation. Unprepared institutionally or psychologically for its position, the United States has swung from an excessive optimism in the 1990s that held that significant conflict was at an end to the wars against militant Islam after 9/11, wars that the United States could not avoid but also could not integrate into a multilayered global strategy. When the only global power becomes obsessed with a single region, the entire world is unbalanced. Imbalance remains the defining characteristic of the global system today.

While the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the European epoch, it also was the end of the era that began in 1945, and it was accompanied by a cluster of events that tend to accompany generational shifts. The 1989-1991 period marked the end of the Japanese economic miracle, the first time the world had marveled at an Asian power's sustained growth rate as the same power's financial system crumbled. The end of the Japanese miracle and the economic problem of integrating East and West Germany both changed the way the global economy worked. The 1991 Maastricht Treaty set the stage for Europe's attempt at integration and was the framework for Europe in the post-Cold War world. Tiananmen Square set the course for China in the next 20 years and was the Chinese answer to a collapsing Soviet empire. It created a structure that allowed for economic development but assured the dominance of the Communist Party. Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait was designed to change the balance of power in the Persian Gulf after the Iraq-Iran war and tested the United States' willingness to go to war after the Cold War.

In 1989-1991 the world changed the way it worked, whether measured in centuries or generations. It was an extraordinary period whose significance is only now emerging. It locked into place a long-term changing of the guard, where North America replaced Europe as the center of the international system. But generations come and go, and we are now in the middle of the first generational shift since the collapse of the European powers, a shift that began in 2008 but is only now working itself out in detail.

What happened in 2008 was one of the financial panics that the global capitalist system periodically suffers. As is frequently the case, these panics first generate political crises within nations, followed by changes in the relations among nations. Of these changes, three in particular are of importance, two of which are directly linked to the 2008 crisis. The first is the European financial crisis and its transformation into a political crisis. The second is the Chinese export crisis and its consequences. The third, indirectly linked to 2008, is the shift in the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of Iran.

The European Crisis

The European crisis represents the single most significant event that followed from the financial collapse of 2008. The vision of the European Union was that an institution that would bind France and Germany together would make the wars that had raged in Europe since 1871 impossible. The vision also assumed that economic integration would both join France and Germany together and create the foundations of a prosperous Europe. Within the context of Maastricht as it evolved, the European vision assumed that the European Union would become a way to democratize and integrate the former Communist countries of Eastern Europe into a single framework.

However, embedded in the idea of the European Union was the idea that Europe could at some point transcend nationalism and emerge as a United States of Europe, a single political federation with a constitution and a unified foreign and domestic policy. It would move from a free trade zone to a unified economic system to a single currency and then to further political integration built around the European Parliament, allowing Europe to emerge as a single country.

Long before this happened, of course, people began to speak of Europe as if it were a single entity. Regardless of the modesty of formal proposals, there was a powerful vision of an integrated European polity. There were two foundations for it. One was the apparent economic and social benefits of a united Europe. The other was that this was the only way that Europe could make its influence felt in the international system. Individually, the European states were not global players, but collectively they had the ability to become just that. In the post-Cold War world, where the United States was the sole and unfettered global power, this was an attractive opportunity.

The European vision was smashed in the aftermath of 2008, when the fundamental instability of the European experiment revealed itself. That vision was built around Germany, the world's second-largest exporter, but Europe's periphery remained too weak to weather the crisis. It was not so much this particular crisis; Europe was not built to withstand any financial crisis. Sooner or later one would come and the unity of Europe would be severely strained as each nation, driven by different economic and social realities, maneuvered in its own interest rather than in the interest of Europe.

There is no question that the Europe of 2012 operates in a very different way than it did in 2007. There is an expectation in some parts that Europe will, in due course, return to its old post-Cold War state, but that is unlikely. The underlying contradictions of the European enterprise are now revealed, and while some European entity will likely survive, it probably will not resemble the Europe envisioned by Maastricht, let alone the grander visions of a United States of Europe. Thus, the only potential counterweight to the United States will not emerge in this generation.

China and the Asian Model

China was similarly struck by the 2008 crisis. Apart from the inevitably cyclical nature of all economies, the Asian model, as seen in Japan and then in 1997 in East and Southeast Asia, provides for prolonged growth followed by profound financial dislocation. Indeed, growth rates do not indicate economic health. Just as it was for Europe, the 2008 financial crisis was the trigger for China.

China's core problem is that more than a billion people live in households earning less than $6 a day, and the majority of those earn less than $3 a day. Social tensions aside, the economic consequence is that China's large industrial plant outstrips Chinese consumer demand. As a result, China must export. However, the recessions after 2008 cut heavily into China's exports, severely affecting GDP growth and threatening the stability of the political system. China confronted the problem with a massive surge in bank lending, driving new investment and supporting GDP growth but also fueling rampant inflation. Inflation created upward pressure on labor costs until China began to lose its main competitive advantage over other countries.

For a generation, Chinese growth has been the engine of the global economic system, just as Japan was in the previous generation. China is not collapsing any more than Japan did. However, it is changing its behavior, and with it the behavior of the international system.

Looking Ahead

If we look at the international system as having three major economic engines, two of them -- Europe and China -- are changing their behavior to be less assertive and less influential in the international system. The events of 2008 did not create these changes; they merely triggered processes that revealed the underlying weaknesses of these two entities.

Somewhat outside the main processes of the international system, the Middle East is undergoing a fundamental shift in its balance of power. The driver in this is not the crisis of 2008 but the consequences of the U.S. was in the region and their termination. With the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, Iran has emerged as the major conventional power in the Persian Gulf and the major influence over Iraq. In addition, with the continued survival of the al Assad regime in Syria through the support of Iran, there is the potential for Iranian influence to stretch from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean Sea. Even if the al Assad regime fell, Iran would still be well-positioned to assert its claims for primacy in the Persian Gulf.

Just as the processes unleashed in 1989-1991 defined the next 20 years, so, too, will the processes that are being generated now dominate the next generation. Still powerful but acutely off-balance in its domestic and foreign policies, the United States is confronting a changing world without yet having a clear understanding of how to deal with this world or, for that matter, how the shifts in the global system will affect it. For the United States strategically, the fragmentation of Europe, the transformation of global production in the wake of the Chinese economy's climax, and the dramatically increased power of Iran appear as abstract events not directly affecting the United States.

Each of these events will create dangers and opportunities for the United States that it is unprepared to manage. The fragmentation of Europe raises the question of the future of Germany and its relationship with Russia. The movement of production to low-wage countries will create booms in countries hitherto regarded as beyond help (as China was in 1980) and potential zones of instability created by rapid and uneven growth. And, of course, the idea that the Iranian issue can be managed through sanctions is a form of denial rather than a strategy.

Three major areas of the world are in flux: Europe, China and the Persian Gulf. Every country in the world will have to devise a strategy to deal with the new reality, just as 1989-1991 required new strategies. The most important country, the United States, had no strategy after 1991 and has no strategy today. This is the single most important reality of the world. Like the Spaniards, who, in the generation after Columbus' voyage, lacked a clear sense of the reality they had created, Americans have no clear sense of the world they find themselves in. This fact continues to define how the world works.

Therefore, we next turn to American strategy in the next 20 years and consider how it will reshape itself.

The State of the World: A Framework Copyright: STRATFOR.COM

It's almost Mardi Gras...

A cat's gotta do what a cat's gotta do!

Sums it up well....

For those of us who have memories (not fond) of the Carter years, enduring the current regime is déjà vu all over again.

Thanks Chris W for the link!

Captain we're taking fire from below!

A few weeks ago I posted on how the NY Police Department was going to use drones to observe activity in the city. Now it looks like someone didn't appreciate being observed. Have to say it couldn't have happened to a nice group of people.

Animal rights group says drone shot down
A remote-controlled aircraft owned by an animal rights group was reportedly shot down near Broxton Bridge Plantation Sunday near Ehrhardt, S.C.

Steve Hindi, president of SHARK (SHowing Animals Respect and Kindness), said his group was preparing to launch its Mikrokopter drone to video what he called a live pigeon shoot on Sunday when law enforcement officers and an attorney claiming to represent the privately-owned plantation near Ehrhardt tried to stop the aircraft from flying.

"It didn't work; what SHARK was doing was perfectly legal," Hindi said in a news release. "Once they knew nothing was going to stop us, the shooting stopped and the cars lined up to leave."

He said the animal rights group decided to send the drone up anyway.

"Seconds after it hit the air, numerous shots rang out," Hindi said in the release. "As an act of revenge for us shutting down the pigeon slaughter, they had shot down our copter."

He claimed the shooters were "in tree cover" and "fled the scene on small motorized vehicles."

"It is important to note how dangerous this was, as they were shooting toward and into a well-travelled highway," Hindi stated in the release...

...The incident report went on to state that "once shot, the helicopter lost lift and crash landed on the roadway of U.S. 601."...

...Hindi estimated damage to the drone at around $200 to $300...

..."This was SHARK's first encounter with the Broxton Bridge Plantation, but it will certainly not be the last," Hindi said in the release. "We are already making plans for a considerably upscaled action in 2013."

Sorry pal you fly over my property like that and get hit, oh well. This group was engaging in a legal activity (dove hunting is still legal in SC last time I checked) so I for one will gladly send a few bird shot shells to this group.

Officer Down

Sergeant Michael Todd May
Monongalia County West Virginia Sheriff's Department
End of Watch: Saturday, February 18, 2012
Age: 41
Tour: 10 years

Sergeant Michael May was killed while pursuing a vehicle across the West Virginia - Pennsylvania state line.

The vehicle had been involved in a hit-and-run accident shortly before 1:00 am. Approximately 20 minutes later, officers from the Granville Police Department stopped the vehicle and called for assistance from the Monongalia County Sheriff's Department. The driver refused to exit the vehicle and then drove away with officers in pursuit.

The pursuit crossed into Pennsylvania and the driver got onto I-79 southbound back towards West Virginia. Approximately one mile north of the state line the driver rammed Sergeant May's patrol car, causing it to crash. Sergeant May was transported to a hospital in Morgantown, West Virginia, where he died a short time later.



The driver of the vehicle was charged with homicide by vehicle in Pennsylvania.



Sergeant May had served with the Monongalia County Sheriff's Department for 10 years.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Ebony and Ivory....

There is no black or white...only green. From The Smoking Gun:

In another instance of harmony in post-racial America, a white Aryan Nations member joined forces with a black gang member to distribute methamphetamine in Missouri, according to federal investigators.

The partnership between white supremacist Richard Treis, 38, and Robert “Biz” Swinney, 22, was torn asunder by an undercover Drug Enforcement Administration probe that resulted in this month’s indictment of Treis, Swinney, and five codefendants on a variety of drug distribution and conspiracy charges.

According to investigators, Swinney allegedly marshaled a network of friends, relatives, and fellow gang members in St. Louis to purchase decongestants containing pseudoephedrine from various stores. Swinney then allegedly sold the pseudoephedrine to Treis, who cooked it down into meth.

If convicted of the various felony charges, each man faces decades in prison (where they would be unlikely to share a cell)...

Good to see we're making progress in racial relations!

The entire campaign in one cartoon

"The problems we face today exist because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living."

"The problems we face today exist because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living."

Thanks Mark C for the cartoon.

Officer Down

 

Detective David White
Clay County Florida Sheriff's Office,
End of Watch: Thursday, February 16, 2012
Age: 35
Tour: 9 years
     
Detective David White was shot and killed during a raid of a suspected meth lab on Alligator Boulevard at approximately 6:30 p.m. Officers engaged a suspect as they approached the front of the house, and Detective White suffered a fatal gunshot wound.

Another detective was shot and wounded while participating in the raid. One suspect was shot and killed by officers as he fled out the back of the house. Several suspects were arrested.

Detective White was a military veteran and served with the Clay County Sheriff's Department for nine years. He is survived by his wife and two children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

A daughter of Jersey and a fallen Marine

I have to agree with this woman. Whitney Houston tragically died but it was by her own actions and in actions. This mother lost her son in the line of battle. Flags should be lowered for Phillip McGeath, a Marine who died serving his country. Not for a multimillionaire who squandered her fortune and who's actions directly led to her death.

Mother Of Fallen Marine Offended By Half-Mast Flag For Houston « CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

ARLINGTON (CBSDFW.COM) – Flags will be lowered in New Jersey Saturday, the day of Whitney Houston’s funeral. But a Marine mom in Arlington says it’s an honor Houston doesn’t deserve.

When Phyllis McGeath heard Gov. Chris Christie had ordered flags lowered to half-staff for Houston, she said she felt a pain deep inside her.

“I was hurt and offended. Disappointed. Saddened,” she said. “I felt like the honor that was given to my son was tarnished.”

McGeath had three sons who were active duty Marines.

Her oldest, Philip, was killed by a suicide bomber just four weeks ago in Afghanistan. He was 25.

“They killed my son.They took his body away from me,” she said, overcome by emotion.

Arizona, the McGeath’s former home state, lowered their flags in his honor.

“That honor meant a lot to me,” McGeath said.

McGeath says Houston is not deserving of that same honor.

“Nothing against Ms. Houston because she was a beautiful singer and I was a fan for years,” McGeath said.

But, “It was like putting them on the same level. And I know how my son lived. And I know through the media how Ms. Houston lived,” she said.

New Jersey’s Governor, Chris Christie, defended his decision to lower the flags in his state saying he wasn’t honoring Houston as a role model but as “a daughter of New Jersey.”...

Again she died not in the line of duty for other but by a tragic accident. A formal symbol of morning is not requried.

...Christie is a conservative Republican. He’s also a former U.S. Attorney who recently called for mandatory drug treatment for non-violent offenders. But he said Houston’s substance abuse issues shouldn’t negate her achievements.

“There but for the grace of God go I,” he said...

One, to whomever wrote this crap Christie may be a Republican but he's no conservative. Also I don't question Houston's achievements in music/arts or that anyone can fall victim of drug abuse. But that is not giving you life for something greater than yourself. A Soldier, Sailor, Airman or Marine fall in the line of duty he was serving something more than himself. Ms Houston was serving what when she died?

That Marine gave a lot...much more than Ms Houston ever did.

...Christie approved a similar order when Bruce Springsteen’s E Street Band member Clarence Clemons died last June....

And you had no business doing that with all due respect.

Governor, with all due respect there are other ways you can honor a "daughter of New Jersey" such as a proclamation, resolutions, etc. Lowering of the flag to half staff is reserved for more deserving people and yes, that Marine deserved it. Ms Houston did not.

Ike said it best when he was asked if he ever made a mistake in his term as President.

“Yes, two and they are both sitting on the Supreme Court!”

After Justice Sandra Day O’Connor announced her retirement, a leftist (ain’t they all) columnist of the Washington Post commented on how she came into her time on the bench a conservative but she “grew” and “matured”, discovering the Constitution must “breath” to modern times.

In other words she starting to find things she liked in the document and people are too stupid to see them.

Now we come to this judge in the Ohio who seems to have had a change of heart on the death penalty. In and of itself I have no issue with. If over his life he changes view on a major issue, so be it. But to stand up there and say he can give a fair judgment on this issue is beyond credibility

Senior Associate Justice Paul Pfeifer

Ohio Justice Rejects Death Penalty Law He Wrote « CBS Cleveland

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — As a young state senator 30 years ago, Paul Pfeifer helped write Ohio’s death penalty law. Today, as the senior member of the state Supreme Court, he’s trying to eliminate it.

It’s not uncommon for sitting judges to change their mind on the death penalty — U.S. Supreme Court Justice Harry Blackmun famously said in 1994 he would no longer “tinker with the machinery of death” — but Pfeifer may be the only one to argue so ardently against a capital punishment law he himself created, and yet continue to rule on death penalty cases.

“I have concluded that the death sentence makes no sense to me at this point when you can have life without the possibility of parole,” Pfeifer said in his most recent public comments, testifying in December in favor a bill to abolish Ohio’s law. “I don’t see what society gains from that.”

Fair enough Mr Pfeifer, if you don’t think society should execute someone, so be it. But you are lying if you say you can be fair and impartial on a capital case. If you recluse yourself, fair enough. But I think that won’t happen.

…At least two county prosecutors say Pfeifer should stop ruling on death sentences, including Hamilton County prosecutor Joe Deters, who said that Pfeifer’s actions were inappropriate. “It gives rise to a credible inference that he cannot be fair to both sides,” Deters said recently.

Bettman, a University of Cincinnati law professor and former state appeals court judge….

…Pfeifer, a Republican, has always charted his own course on the court. For years he was a member of a foursome — two Democrats and two moderate Republicans — dubbed “the Gang of Four” for a series of 4-3 rulings that critics said were anti-business and favored Democrats and their causes …

…Pfeifer made similar statements in court opinions over the years. He took his position public in 2001, calling unsuccessfully for an independent panel to review the law. He began to complain that prosecutors were overusing the statute, seeking death sentences in domestic quarrels that went bad instead of for the worst of the worst killers.

He often cites the case of Richard Nields, who murdered his girlfriend in their southwestern Ohio home in 1997, then stole her car and travelers’ checks, as an example of overreaching by prosecutors.

“This case is not about robbery,” Pfeifer wrote in his dissent to the court’s 2001 decision upholding Nields’ death sentence. “It is about alcoholism, rage and rejection and about Nields’ inability to cope with any of them.” Ultimately, Gov. Ted Strickland agreed and in 2010 changed Nields’ sentence to life without parole.

In January 2011, Pfeifer made his strongest statements to date, calling on Gov. John Kasich to empty death row.

Pfeifer says he’s required as a judge to take positions to make laws better, hence his current stand. He’s also required to rule according to the law and the Constitution, which he says he does. Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor says she’s comfortable Pfeifer is following the law and not showing bias

This makes less sense than having George Stephanopoulos hosting a Republican debate or Danny Rather interviewing a Bush. Forgive me, it goes beyond the pale.

Mr Pfeifer, show some integrity and just recluse yourself.

Security Weekly: Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War? February 16, 2012

By Ben West


Mexican authorities announced Feb. 8 the largest seizure of methamphetamine in Mexican history -- and possibly the largest ever anywhere -- on a ranch outside of Guadalajara. The total haul was 15 tons of pure methamphetamine along with a laboratory capable of producing all the methamphetamine seized. While authorities are not linking the methamphetamine to any specific criminal group, Guadalajara is a known stronghold of the Sinaloa Federation, and previous seizures there have been connected to the group.


Methamphetamine, a synthetic drug manufactured in personal labs for decades, is nothing new in Mexico or the United States. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has led numerous crusades against the drug, increasing regulations on its ingredients to try to keep it from gaining a foothold in the United States. While the DEA's efforts have succeeded in limiting production of the drug in the United States, consumption has risen steadily over the past two decades. The increasing DEA pressure on U.S. suppliers and the growing demand for methamphetamine have driven large-scale production of the drug outside the borders of the United States. Given Mexico's proximity and the pervasiveness of organized criminal elements seeking new markets, it makes sense that methamphetamine would be produced on an industrial scale there. Indeed, Mexico has provided an environment for a scale of production far greater than anything ever seen in the United States.


But last week's methamphetamine seizure sheds light on a deeper shift in organized criminal activity in Mexico -- one that could mark a breakthrough in the violent stalemate that has existed between the Sinaloa Federation, Los Zetas and the government for the past five years and has led to an estimated 50,000 deaths. It also reveals a pattern in North American organized crime activity that can be seen throughout the 20th century as well as a business opportunity that could transform criminal groups in Mexico from the drug trafficking intermediaries they are today to controllers of an independent and profitable illicit market.


While the trafficking groups in Mexico are commonly called "cartels" (even Stratfor uses the term), they are not really cartels. A cartel is a combination of groups cooperating to control the supply of a commodity. The primary purpose of a cartel is to set the price of a commodity so that buyers cannot negotiate lower prices. The current conflict in Mexico over cocaine and marijuana smuggling routes shows that there are deep rifts between rival groups like the Sinaloa Federation and Los Zetas. There is no sign that they are cooperating with each other to set the price of cocaine or marijuana. Also, since most of the Mexican criminal groups are involved in a diverse array of criminal activities, their interests go beyond drug trafficking. They are perhaps most accurately described as "transnational criminal organizations" (TCOs), the label currently favored by the DEA.


Examples from the Past


While the level of violence in Mexico right now is unprecedented, it is important to remember that the Mexican TCOs are businesses. They do use violence in conducting business, but their top priority is to make profits, not kill people. The history of organized crime shows many examples of groups engaging in violence to control an illegal product. During the early 20th century in North America, to take advantage of Prohibition in the United States, organized criminal empires were built around the bootlegging industry. After the repeal of Prohibition, gambling and casinos became the hot market. Control over Las Vegas and other major gambling hubs was a business both dangerous and profitable. Control over the U.S. heroin market was consolidated and then dismantled during the 1960s and 1970s. Then came cocaine and the rise in power, wealth and violence of Colombian groups like the Medellin and Cali cartels.


But as U.S. and Colombian law enforcement cracked down on the Colombian cartels -- interdicting them in Colombia and closing down their Caribbean smuggling corridors -- Colombian producers had to turn to the Mexicans to traffic cocaine through Mexico to the United States. To this day, however, Colombian criminal groups descended from the Medellin and Cali cartels control the cultivation and production of cocaine in South America, while Mexican groups increasingly oversee the trafficking of the drug to the United States, Europe and Africa.


The Mexican Weakness


While violence has been used in the past to eliminate or coerce competitors and physically take control of an illegal market, it has not proved to be a solution in recent years for Mexican TCOs. The Medellin cartel became infamous for attacking Colombian state officials and competitors who tried to weaken its grasp over the cocaine market. Going back further, Benjamin "Bugsy" Siegel is thought to have been murdered over disagreements about his handling of the Flamingo Hotel in Las Vegas. Before that, Prohibition saw numerous murders over control of liquor shipments and territory. In Mexico, we are seeing an escalating level of such violence, but few of the business resolutions that would be expected to come about as a result.


Geography helps explain this. In Mexico, the Sierra Madre mountain range splits the east coast and the west from the center. The Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean coastal plains tend to develop their own power bases separate from each other.


Mexican drug traffickers are also split by market forces. With Colombian criminal groups still largely controlling the production of cocaine in jungle laboratories, Mexican traffickers are essentially middlemen. They must run the gauntlet of U.S.-led international interdiction efforts by using a combination of Central American traffickers, corruption and street-gang enforcers. They also have to move the cocaine across the U.S. border, where it gets distributed by hundreds of street gangs.


Profit is the primary motivation at every step, and each hurdle the Mexican traffickers have to clear cuts into their profit margins. The cocaine producers in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia can play the Sinaloa Federation and Los Zetas (as well as others) off of each other to strengthen their own bargaining position. And even though keeping the traffickers split appears to create massive amounts of violence in Mexico, it benefits the politicians and officials there, who can leverage at least the presence of a competitor for better bribes and payoffs.


For Mexican drug traffickers, competition is bad for the bottom line, since it allows other actors to exploit each side to get a larger share of the market. Essentially, everyone else in the cocaine market benefits by keeping the traffickers split. The more actors involved in cocaine trafficking, the harder it is to control it.


The Solution


Historically, organized criminal groups have relied on control of a market for their source of wealth and power. But the current situation in Mexico, and the cocaine trade in general, prevents the Mexican groups (or anyone) from controlling the market outright. As long as geography and market forces keep the traffickers split, all sides in Mexico will try to use violence to get more control over territory and market access. We assume that Mexico's geography will not change dramatically any time soon, but market forces are much more temporal.


Mexican criminal organizations can overcome their weakness in the cocaine market by investing the money they have earned (billions of dollars, according to the most conservative estimates) into the control of other markets. Ultimately, cocaine is impossible for the Mexicans to control because the coca plant can only grow in sufficient quantity in the foothills of the Andes. It would be prohibitively expensive for the Mexicans to take over control of coca cultivation and cocaine production there. Mexican criminal organizations are increasing their presence in the heroin market, but while they can grow poppies in Mexico and produce black-tar heroin, Afghanistan still controls a dominant share of the white heroin market -- around 90 percent.


What Mexicans can control is the methamphetamine market. What we are seeing in Mexico right now -- unprecedented amounts of the seized drug -- is reminiscent of what we saw over the past century in the infancy of the illegal liquor, gambling, heroin and cocaine markets: an organized criminal group industrializing production in or control of a loosely organized industry and using that control to set prices and increase its power. Again, while illegal methamphetamine has been produced in the United States for decades, regulatory pressure and law enforcement efforts have kept it at a small scale; seizures are typically measured in pounds or kilograms and producers are on the run.


Mexican producers have also been in the market for a long time, but over the past year we have seen seizures go from being measured in kilograms to being measured in metric tons. In other words, we are seeing evidence that methamphetamine production has increased several orders of magnitude and is fast becoming an industrialized process.


In addition to the 15 tons seized last week, we saw a record seizure of 675 tons of methylamine, a key ingredient of methamphetamine, in Mexico in December. From 2010 to 2011, seizures of precursor chemicals like methylamine in Mexico increased 400 percent, from 400 tons to 1,600 tons. These most recent reports are similar to reports in the 1920s of U.S. liquor seizures going from barrels to shiploads, which indicated bootlegging was being conducted on an industrial scale. They are also eerily similar to the record cocaine seizure in 1984 in Tranquilandia, Colombia, when Colombian National Police uncovered a network of jungle cocaine labs along with 13.8 metric tons of cocaine. It was the watershed moment, when authorities moved from measuring cocaine busts in kilograms to measuring them in tons, and it marked the Medellin cartel's rise to power over the cocaine market.


A True Mexican Criminal Industry?


Anyone can make methamphetamine, but it is a huge organizational, financial and legal challenge to make it on the industrial level that appears to be happening in Mexico. The main difference between the U.S. labs and the Mexican labs is the kind of input chemicals they use. The U.S. labs use pseudoephedrine, a pharmaceutical product heavily regulated by the DEA, as a starting material, while Mexican labs use methylamine, a chemical with many industrial applications that is more difficult to regulate. And while pseudoephedrine comes in small individual packages of cold pills, methylamine is bought in 208-liter (55-gallon) barrels. The Mexican process requires experienced chemists who have mastered synthesizing methamphetamine on a large scale, which gives them an advantage over the small-time amateurs working in U.S. methamphetamine labs.


Thus, while methamphetamine consumption has been steadily growing in the United States for the past two decades -- and at roughly $100 per gram, unpure methamphetamine is just as profitable on the street as cocaine -- it is even more profitable for Mexican traffickers. Methamphetamine does not come with the overhead costs of purchasing cocaine from Colombians and trafficking valuable merchandise through some of the most dangerous countries in the Western Hemisphere. Precursor materials such as methylamine used in methamphetamine production are cheap, and East Asian producers appear to be perfectly willing to sell the chemicals to Mexico. And because methamphetamine is a synthetic drug, its production does not depend on agriculture like cocaine and marijuana production does. There is no need to control large swaths of cropland and there is less risk of losing product to adverse weather or eradication efforts.


For the Mexican TCOs, industrializing and controlling the methamphetamine market offers a level of real control over a market that is not possible with cocaine. We expect fighting over the methamphetamine market to maintain violence at its current levels, but once a group comes out on top it will have far more resources to expel or absorb rival TCOs. This process may not sound ideal, but methamphetamine could pick the winner in the Mexican drug war.

Security Weekly: Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War? Copyright STRATFOR.COM

A Tale of Two Brainworms

Been a musical day and I'm going to go postal before it's over.

All week I've had this one song in my head, Greatest Love of All by Whitney Houston. A little history. This is without question the most f#$%ing overplayed song in the history of music. Summer of 1986 I was driving all night to Fort Knox KY and what do I hear over four states on dozens of radio stations. Yep, Ms Houston. I make it to my friend's apartment and as I'm walking up the stairs what do I hear coming out of his apartment. GLOA. Pardon me while I puke and I was ready to get back in the car and just drive all night again.

I leave the next day and all the way to Fort Riley, Kansas. Yep, all over the freaking state.

And to make it perfect my company commander loved the song and we had one cadet who sang it. The cadet really did have a beautiful voice but I finally looked up and asked, "God, what have I done to piss you off this much!?"

Since this morning I've been having a battle between Whitney and What a Wonderful World from the Sons of Anarchy soundtrack.

Great album...and getting the Whitney song away from head.

Have a great almost weekend!

Honey, this is my day care center!

Thanks Dawn for the picture

What's going on in the World Today 120215

Kinda back on board...hope you had a great weekend!

 HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:  

USA

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

EUROPE

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ASIA

Limits in the Modernization of India's Air Force | STRATFOR

China's Looming Pension Crisis | STRATFOR

AFRICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

RUSSIA

The Next Stage of Russia's Resurgence: Central Asia | STRATFOR

IRAN

Iran's Deterrence Strategy in the Strait of Hormuz | STRATFOR

Iran: Tehran Director-General Vows To Confront Feb. 14 Rallies February 11, 2012

Tehran Governor-General Morteza Tamaddon said Feb. 11 that he will confront any opposition rallies held Feb. 14 in the city, Iranian news agency YJC reported. Tamaddon Hsaid all security systems are on alert after social media and opposition groups called for rallies.

Iran: Homemade Nuclear Rods To Be Placed In Research Reactor February 15, 2012

Nuclear fuel rods will be placed in a Tehran research reactor Feb. 15, Iranian deputy nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri said, Xinhua reported, citing the semi-official ISNA news agency. Bagheri said Iran has begun enriching uranium to 20 percent itself since Western countries are not assisting.

IRAQ

Iraq: Turkey Strikes PKK Targets February 12, 2012

Turkish fighter jets carried out airstrikes Feb. 11 against two Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) targets in the Zap and Hakurk regions of northern Iraq, the Turkish military said, Today's Zaman reported Feb. 12.

Iraq: Weapons, Jihadists Moving To Syria - Official February 11, 2012

Iraqi Deputy Interior Minister Adnan al-Assadi said Feb. 11 that weapons and jihadists are now moving from Iraq to Syria to oppose the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, AFP reported. Al-Assadi said the weapons are being transported from Baghdad to Mosul and then into Syria through crossings near Rabia and the Syrian city of Abu Kamal. He said weapon prices are rising because they are being sent to the Syrian opposition.

ISRAEL

A Concerted Effort To Kill Israeli Diplomats? | STRATFOR

Israel: Iran Behind Attacks In India, Georgia February 13, 2012

Iran and Hezbollah are behind the car bomb attack on Israeli officials in India and the thwarted attack in Tbilisi, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Feb. 13, Haaretz reported. Israel will continue to work against the terror Iran produces, Netanyahu said. There have been several attempts to target Israeli citizens and Jews in different countries, but these attacks were stopped through cooperation with local forces, Netanyahu added.

AFGHANISTAN

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MIDDLE EAST

Special Report: Hamas In Transition STRATFOR


SOUTH OF THE BORDER

Polarization and Sustained Violence in Mexico's Cartel War | STRATFOR

MISC

Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Feb. 13, 2012  

Now this report brings up an interesting question

I remember hearing something about this late last year. Now beside the physical evidence we know this is likely because the Northern Fleet is kinda know for it's nuclear accidents. But again, read the article and see if the question comes out at you?

Russia faced major nuclear disaster in 2011-report
By Guy Faulconbridge

MOSCOW, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Russia came close to nuclear disaster in late December when a blaze engulfed a nuclear-powered submarine carrying atomic weapons, a leading Russian magazine reported, contradicting official assurances that it was not armed.

Russian officials said at the time that all nuclear weapons aboard the Yekaterinburg nuclear submarine had been unloaded well before a fire engulfed the 167-metre (550 feet) vessel and there had been no risk of a radiation leak.

But the respected Vlast weekly magazine quoted several sources in the Russian navy as saying that throughout the fire on Dec. 29 the submarine was carrying 16 R-29 intercontinental ballistic missiles, each armed with four nuclear warheads.

"Russia, for a day, was on the brink of the biggest catastrophe since the time of Chernobyl," Vlast reported. The 1986 disaster in modern-day Ukraine is regarded as the world's worst nuclear accident.

Neither the Russian Defence Ministry nor the office of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who has responsibility for military matters, would immediately comment on the report. A spokesman for the navy could not be contacted.

SPARKS FLY

The fire started when welding sparks ignited wooden scaffolding around the 18,200-tonne submarine at the Roslyakovo docks, 1,500 km (900 miles) north of Moscow and one of the main shipyards used by Russia's northern fleet.

The rubber covering of the submarine then caught fire, sending flames and black smoke 10 metres (30 feet) above the stricken vessel. Firemen battled the blaze for a day and a night before partially sinking the submarine to douse the flames, according to media reports.

Vlast reported that immediately after the fire the Yekaterinburg sailed to the navy's weapons store, an unusual trip for a damaged submarine supposedly carrying no weapons and casting doubt on assurances that it was not armed....

Now the question. Who is bigger liar? The Russians or Reuters/Vlast? Something to consider.

I really love how the article strings this along.

"K-84 was in dock with rockets and torpedoes on board," the magazine said, adding that apart from the nuclear weapons the submarine was carrying torpedoes and mines as well as its two nuclear reactors.

The magazine said that if one of the torpedoes had exploded it could have threatened the nuclear missiles, leading to an extremely dangerous nuclear accident.

IF a torpedo has exploded then it could have threaded the missile. How, if I might ask? I don't know. The missiles are on the other side of the conning tower from the torpedoes and the nuclear warhead is encased by serious medal. The chain reaction is not going to be set off by a fire by an atomic detonator.

Again something to consider before you put your name to an article Mr Faulconbridge.

Geopolitical Weekly: Disparity in the Covert War Between Iran and the West, February 14, 2014

Within thirty minutes of each other on Monday, a "sticky bomb" attached to the back of a van detonated in New Delhi, India, and, more than 3,200 kilometers (2,000 miles) away, an aware driver in Tbilisi, Georgia, discovered and reported what was essentially a grenade duct-taped to the undercarriage of his vehicle, enabling police to defuse the device. Both vehicles were connected to the Israeli Embassy in the respective capitals. The device that exploded seriously wounded an Israeli Embassy employee and wife of an Israeli defense attache and inflicted less severe injuries on the driver and two bystanders.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu almost immediately pointed the finger at Iran. Iran just as quickly characterized the entire affair as an Israeli fabrication intended to discredit Tehran. This sort of rhetorical exchange has been the normal state of affairs for years now.

There is a covert war raging between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other. It is difficult to ignore the persistent and tactically consistent assassinations of Iranian scientists associated with the country's nuclear program -- assassinations in which sticky bombs have figured prominently -- as well as the Stuxnet computer worm that targeted Siemens industrial software important to Iran's uranium enrichment efforts. At this point, it is hard to find a more rational explanation for the assassinations and sabotage than that Israel or the United States -- or, more likely, both in collaboration -- are working to undermine Iran's nuclear program.

Similarly, it is difficult to separate the most recent attacks in New Delhi and Tbilisi from arrests in Azerbaijan and Thailand that purportedly disrupted terrorist plots aimed at Israeli diplomatic targets and an apparent threat to Israeli interests in Bulgaria. There was also an admittedly odd plot to conduct attacks on American soil against U.S., Saudi and Israeli targets.

Monday's events merely reinforce the existence of an already obvious campaign on both sides. But the remarkable aspect is the disparity between the two efforts. By and large, Stuxnet as well as the larger sabotage and assassination campaign against Iran have been consistently professional and effective. On the other hand, the Iranian counterattack has been repeatedly foiled or exposed as ineffective or even inept.

Tehran may not be employing its most capable assets. It is possible that these attacks have been conducted via ill-conceived contract work or poorly trained proxies simply for the sake of deniability. But while the trend of attempted attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests could be interpreted as a warning of worse to come, they stand in stark contrast to the consistently effective attacks against Iranian interests on Iranian territory.

Stratfor has argued that the principle Iranian deterrent to attack is its ability to attempt to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade passes. No matter how good the military response is to such an attack, no military in the world can control the markets' reaction to even short-term disruptions, and that calculus has become only more compelling during the global economic crisis. Iran has thus gone out of its way to showcase this deterrent through recent and upcoming military maneuvers.

But its other deterrents may have begun to decline. It has yet to demonstrate a capability to covertly attack opposing interests abroad, a reputation for which it has long held credibly. This does not mean that Tehran does not wield such a capability, but the principal purpose of this capability is deterrence, not reprisal. Once the United States or Israel has initiated an attack on Iran as part of the covert war, Tehran's strategy of deterrence has, by definition, failed. As time passes, the United States continues to reinforce its own installations and those of Israel with more and newer ballistic missile defenses against Iran's ballistic missile arsenal. And while American diplomats and Western contractors remain vulnerable to direct attack in Iraq, now that the U.S. military withdrawal has been completed, it is far easier to remove the remaining presence than has been the case in close to a decade.

The deterrent Iran derives from its power over the Strait of Hormuz continues to hold sway. But while Stratfor is dismissive of the impact of sanctions (based on their scattered track record), they are not without their impact over time. Sanctions will not bring down the regime in Tehran, but Iranians have a far higher standard of living than, say, the average North Korean. In this context, the correlation of increasingly expensive food staples on the streets in Iran and the apparent ineffectual application of Iranian power abroad raises questions about the status of Iranian power in the region.

It is difficult to understate the significance of the continued survival of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, which is increasingly dependent on Iranian support. And the durability of Iranian power from the border of Afghanistan, through Iraq, where Iranian power currently peaks, all the way to the Mediterranean that the continued survival of the al Assad regime entails has potentially fundamental implications. But as the United States and its allies extract themselves from Afghanistan, American military power becomes more flexible in comparison to the fixed nature of Iranian power in the region. At some point, American power in the region will begin to converge with the limitations of Persian power in an Arab-dominated region. The question is at what point those powers converge.

Disparity in the Covert War Between Iran and the West Copryight STRATFOR.COM

How to look around and see what's happening in your neighborhood.

Sometimes the information you need is staring you right in the face.

How To Gather Intel

Use free fliers, public bulletin boards, and the civic center marquee to gather intel that will plug you in at your station.


by William Harvey


Being the newest officer in the precinct makes life harder than it should be, because you have to dig for every morsel of information to get ahead. Some of the old heads seem tuned in to things, and you're left out of the loop. Yes, being new to the city or precinct sucks. So how can you develop a system of building intel for you? No, you can't rent an informant from a cop shop or buy a bottle of instant intelligence. You must work on it.


You go into any coffee shop or convenience store and there are assorted fliers. These free papers, fliers, or "fish wrappers" have good information. It may give you no more than which small club may have a blues singer, or list a gathering. Sooner or later, it will pay off. I recall a sergeant who told me one of the FNGs (fabulous new guy/girl) had information on an underground unlicensed club that led to a great case on the operation. That little flier had paid off. These often individually published fliers are focused on some smaller, under the radar activities that are harmless at best. But, they offer ideas or leads about the beat's activity.


These are especially prominent in college towns. There are so many varied interests, music scenes, and special interests that flourish there. Internet cafés and blogs typically stay within their expected circles.


While in a café or coffee shop, look for bulletin boards. I know several officers who scan these for moving sales, yard sales, and the like. The local internet listings haven't run these out of business. These bulletin boards and free posting areas are still out there, so give them a gander.

Years ago I worked in Savannah, Ga., and the downtown precinct had a civic center. I was taught by my Field Training Officer (FTO) to read the civic center's marquee and make note of whom or what was occurring. We all know that certain bands and performers have their own special following. On some nights, we had to concentrate on the post-concert activities and carnage.


As you perform your daily patrol duties, you'll find a plethora of information that's free for the taking. Of course, you'll have to do some analysis and research to see if it has any potential value to you on patrol. You may not find the major break that solves a big case. But you will develop positive patrol habits that will stick, which will keep you a leg up on the other officers. Who knows, you might impress one of the old guys with some good information that they didn't know about.

As a long time spook I can tell you most of what you need to know is right in front of you. Most of what I briefed was open source with a quick look at the classified side to make sure it all aligned.

Good way to gather info here.

Officer Down

Reserve Deputy Don Williams
Dale County Alabama Sheriff's Office
End of Watch: Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Age: 55
Tour: 17 years
Badge # 26-77

Reserve Deputy Don Williams died after being involved in a single vehicle accident on South Union Avenue, near Martin Street, in Ozark.

He had just completed serving civil papers when his patrol car left the roadway and struck several parked cars. It is believed that he may have suffered a medical emergency prior to the accident.

Deputy Williams had served as a reserve deputy with the Dale County Sheriff's Office for 17 years. He is survived by his wife and six children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.