What's going on in the World Today 140204

“I’m not a psychopath, Anderson. I’m a high-functioning sociopath. Do your research.”-Sherlock

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USA

Emerging Market Turmoil and the U.S. Taper">

January 30, NBC News – (Montana) 92 nuclear missile officers implicated in cheating scandal, Air Force says. A U.S. Air Force official stated January 30 that the number of nuclear missile launch officers under investigation for allegedly cheating or being aware of the cheating on an important proficiency exam rose at the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana from 34 to 92.

AFRICA

Exclusive: General says more Marines could be based throughout Africa

Marine units that specialize in crisis response could be based in Africa in coming years as military leaders work with host nations that have shown interest in the U.S. posturing troops in their countries, according to a top general in the region.

Lt. Gen. Steven Hummer, deputy to the commander for military operations in U.S. Africa Command, said these units would likely be similar to the Special-Purpose Marine-Air Ground Task Force Crisis Response based at Morón Air Base in Spain, which stood up in 2013.

“There’s quite a reach from Morón to get to [certain African countries], depending on the operational aircraft,” Hummer told Marine Corps Times. “As we look at the future of the environment around the world, and the fiscal challenges impeding the number of ships we would like to have, there’s a balancing act we have to achieve between MAGTFs aboard ships and MAGTFs ashore, where they can respond to indications and warnings.”

The units likely would be a hybrid between the crisis response force and a second Marine unit that operates in the region — SPMAGTF Africa, which is based at Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy. Those Marines conduct training with local militaries that are dealing with terrorism or other threats to security.

“A crisis response force, that could be their primary mission,” Hummer said. “But they could also be doing theater security cooperation training with militaries on the continent. They could participate in exercises, all the while — as we craft these — continuing to develop their skills and readiness toward crisis response.”

Both SPMAGTFs are land-based expeditionary units capable of operating without naval ships. That has become increasingly important as budgetary restrictions mean there are fewer amphibious ships at sea. And, of course, both task forces have built-in command, ground, aviation and logistics elements....

Kenya: Clashes Continue In Mombasa February 3, 2014

Clashes continued for a second day in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa, Al Jazeera reported Feb. 3. Muslim youths protesting a police raid on a mosque in Mombasa threw rocks and shouted, "Release our brothers," referring to those arrested after clashes on Feb. 2. Police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at the protesters

Yemen: British Oil Worker Kidnapped February 3, 2014

A British citizen working in the oil sector was kidnapped in a tightly patrolled district of Sanaa on Feb. 3, AFP reported. This is the second abduction of a foreign citizen since Jan. 31.

ASIA

The Ukrainian Government Faces Pressure At Home and Abroad, Despite Making Concessions

The Limits of Turkey's Interest Rate Hike

Vietnam's Energy Sources

Instability and Legal Challenges Will Follow Thailand's Elections

In Moldova, Gagauzia's Referendum Illustrates the EU-Russian Struggle

Moldova's Separatist Regions

EUROPE

Europe's Evolving Terrorist Landscape

The European Union Slows Its Renewable Energy Push

Spurred by Global Crises, Germany Weighs a More Muscular Foreign Policy

MUNICH — German leaders are pushing a vigorous new case that it is time for their nation to find a more muscular voice in foreign affairs, even suggesting that Germany should no longer reflexively avoid some military deployments, as it did in Libya almost three years ago.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has yet to weigh in on the use of the military, and it is not clear how willing the German public is to embrace a more assertive posture. But a variety of senior officials are urging a rethinking of the country’s assumptions about its diplomatic and military role. They are driven partly by alarm about crises from Ukraine to Africa, but also by unease about the strength of Germany’s partnership with the United States after revelations of American spying, and about American officials’ increasing reluctance to take the lead in interventions.

President Joachim Gauck sent the strongest signal yet of a possible change in direction with a speech late Friday at the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering that attracts an array of world leaders and defense experts and has historically been a forum for sharp policy debates.

Germany’s Nazi and Communist pasts are no excuse for ducking international duties, Mr. Gauck said. He argued that the current Germany — “the best we have ever known,” he said — was well established as a democracy and as a reliable partner and ally, and that it should step out “earlier, more decisively and more substantially” on the world stage.

MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

A Balanced Resolution to Chile and Peru's Maritime Dispute

AFGHANISTAN

Karzai Arranged Secret Contacts With the Taliban

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has refused to sign a deal he brokered for security after Western troops leave. Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

KABUL, Afghanistan — President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has been engaged in secret contacts with the Taliban about reaching a peace agreement without the involvement of his American and Western allies, further corroding already strained relations with the United States.

The secret contacts appear to help explain a string of actions by Mr. Karzai that seem intended to antagonize his American backers, Western and Afghan officials said. In recent weeks, Mr. Karzai has continued to refuse to sign a long-term security agreement with Washington that he negotiated, insisted on releasing hardened Taliban militants from prison and distributed distorted evidence of what he called American war crimes.

The clandestine contacts with the Taliban have borne little fruit, according to people who have been told about them. But they have helped undermine the remaining confidence between the United States and Mr. Karzai, making the already messy endgame of the Afghan conflict even more volatile. Support for the war effort in Congress has deteriorated sharply, and American officials say they are uncertain whether they can maintain even minimal security cooperation with Mr. Karzai’s government or its successor after coming elections....

CHINA

China: No Air Defense Identification Zone Planned Over South China Sea February 3, 2014

China dismissed Japanese media reports that Beijing would set up an Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea, CCTV reported Feb. 3. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed optimism about the regional situation and relations with the ASEAN countries in the South China Sea, but said that China had a right to set up Air Defense Identification Zones without criticism from other countries.

NIGHTWATCH 140204

China: A Chinese news outlet carried an item that purported to refute a Japanese news report that China intends to establish an air defense identification zone over the South China Sea and that planning began in May 2013.

"China on Saturday dismissed allegations by some Japanese reports that it is to set up an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea and expressed optimism over the regional situation."

" 'In a general view, the Chinese side has yet to feel any air security threat from the ASEAN countries and is optimistic about its relations with the neighboring countries and the general situation in the South China Sea region,' Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hong Lei said in a press release Saturday."

"…Hong said the right-wing forces of Japan have repeatedly clamored about the alleged plan of China to set up an ADIZ over the South China Sea. He said this move is of ulterior motive and simply aimed to shift international attention from and cover up the plot to change Japan's pacifist constitution and expand its military power (sic)."

"'We sternly warned these forces not to mislead public opinions with rumors and play up tensions for their own selfish benefit,' Hong said.'

Comment: A careful review of Chinese statements last year about establishing these zones discloses an unambiguous intention to establish additional zones as necessary and when careful preparations are complete. China's dismissal of the Japanese reports is not a denial of intent, only of timing. It also is not an accurate statement of China's analysis of the threat from Southeast Asian air forces.

It simply restates that China claims to perceive no threat at this time. In other words, the Foreign Ministry spokesman affirmed China's right to establish a zone, just not yet. It also ignores or deliberately insults the capabilities of Vietnam and other nations to provide air cover for their South China Sea claims.

Effective air defense coverage of the South China Sea is a daunting technological, surveillance and military capabilities challenge for any nation. China has not declared an ADIZ over the South China Sea because it can't enforce it. It has even less capability to enforce and ADIZ there than it does over the East China Sea.

Japan Air Self-Defense Forces and the South Korean air force ignore China's ADIZ at will. The East China Sea ADIZ resulted in a loss of face for China before several of the most capable air forces in the world

China to Ramp Up Military Spending

Zha Chunming/Xinhua, via Associated Press Chinese sailors stand at attention on the deck of the aircraft carrier Liaoning in the northeastern port of Dalian.
China already spends more on its military than any country in the world except the United States. Now, as defense budgets at the Pentagon and in many NATO countries shrink, China’s People’s Liberation Army is gearing up for a surge in new funding, according to a new report.

China will spend $148 billion on its military this year, up from $139.2 billion in 2013, according to IHS Jane’s, a defense industry consulting and analysis company. The United States spends far more – a forecast $574.9 billion this year – but that is down from $664.3 billion in 2012 after budget cuts slashed spending. By next year China will spend more on defense than Britain, Germany and France combined, according to IHS. By 2024, it will spend more than all of Western Europe, it estimates.

The surge in weapons spending by Beijing – military outlays this year are set to be a third higher than in 2009 – has come in tandem with an escalation in tensions with its neighbors over longstanding territorial disputes. Vietnam and the Philippines have overlapping claims with China to islands and shoals in the South China Sea. Japan and China have been at loggerheads over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

The extra spending has bought some flashy hardware. In 2012 China commissioned its first aircraft carrier – the Liaoning – built from the hull of an uncompleted ship ordered by the Soviet navy in the 1980s. In 2011 a Chinese-made aircraft with stealth radar-evading capabilities flew on a test flight as Robert M. Gates, then the United States defense secretary, was in Beijing on an official visit...

IRAN

The Meaning of Iran

IRAQ

Battle Lines Drawn in Iraq’s Anbar Province

Geopoliticalmonitor.com

Since the New Year, Iraq’s Anbar province has been wracked with violence as tribal militias, Iraqi government forces, and the al-Qaeda inspired Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) have fought for control of key cities in the region.

Though the causes behind this current round of violence are multi-faceted, its outbreak can roughly be traced to December 28, when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dispatched troops to Ramadi to arrest Ahmed al-Alwani, an MP in the Iraqi Parliament.

Al-Alwani is a Sunni politician with ties to an Anbar-based protest movement against the al-Malaki government, which protesters accuse of unfairly targeting its Sunni political opponents. The movement has decried the mass imprisonment of political prisoners, suspect executions under Iraq’s controversial Article 4 of the Terror Law, and Sunni expulsions at the hands of government-sanctioned militias. Al-Alwani acted as the group's voice in parliament, and it follows that he was likely targeted in an effort to stem criticism towards what many Sunnis believe to be an increasingly authoritarian and sectarian prime minister.

These events corresponded with a substantial increase in activity from the Anbar-based ISIS – an al-Qaeda affiliated militant group formed during the US occupation of Iraq. Owing to its involvement in the Syrian civil war, recruitment and funding have spiked through 2013, allowing it to carry out more sophisticated bombing campaigns in Baghdad and Shiite strongholds in Iraq.

As military presence was stepped up in Anbar in response to Sunni protests, ISIS seized an opportunity to carry out a string of ambushes and attacks on army patrols, notably on December 21 when an ISIS attack killed the commander of the 7th Iraqi Army Division, along with 23 other officers. This incident served as a pretence for the Iraqi government’s late December military operation, which was ostensibly aimed at driving al-Qaeda from the west of the province.

However, Prime Minister al-Maliki, unable to resist the temptation to tackle other political problems, branded the Ramadi protest camp an ISIS base, dispatching the heavily-armed Iraqi security services to force it to disband. Tribal leaders supporting the protest movement, such as Sheikh al-Saadi, had already warned Maliki that any government attempt to clear the camp would be met by force of arms...

ISRAEL

Israel: $20 Million Offered To Turkey Flotilla Victims February 3, 2014

The Israeli government offered $20 million in compensation to the families of those killed in the 2010 raid on a Turkish flotilla bound for Gaza, Haaretz reported Feb. 3. Turkey has not yet responded to the offer, unnamed Western diplomats said. Although relations will take a while to return to normal, there is significant incentive for both countries to want a resolution.

RUSSIA

Types of Regional Debt in Russia

SYRIADeath toll rises to 119 killed in Aleppo after barrel bomb attacks

Syrian government helicopters and warplanes unleashed a wave of airstrikes on more than a dozen opposition-held neighborhoods in the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday, activists said, bringing the death toll to at least 119 people killed in the latest episode of a campaign many consider a war crime.

Aleppo has been a key battleground in Syria's civil war since rebels swept into the city in mid-2012 and wrested most of the eastern and southern neighborhoods from the government. Since then, the fighting has settled into a bloody grind, with neither side capable of mounting an offensive that would expel its opponents from the city.

But over the past two months, President Bashar al-Assad's air force has ramped up its aerial campaign on rebel-held areas of Aleppo, pounding them with barrel bombs - containers packed with explosives, fuel and scraps of metal - that cause massive damage on impact.

On Sunday alone, Syrian military aircraft targeted 15 opposition-controlled neighborhoods, said an activist who goes by the name of Abu al-Hassan Marea, according to The Associated Press.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said the Tariq al-Bab district on the eastern edge of the city was the hardest-hit, with at least eight barrel bombs raining down on it Sunday. Marea said one of the air raids in the neighborhood struck a vegetable market and another landed near a mosque....

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

A flood of new weapons -- from Iran to Saudi Arabia -- is dangerously changing the military dynamic in the Middle East.

Weapons are pouring into the Middle East at an unprecedented rate. The Pentagon recently announced that it would sell six tilt-rotor Osprey aircraft to Israel for $1.3 billion, American hardware (including Apache helicopters) is being rushed to the Iraqi government to help in its battle against al Qaeda, and Washington has also restored military aid to Egypt after a brief hiatus. But Uncle Sam isn't the only one delivering weapons to the region: Hezbollah has acquired parts of Russia's supersonic Yakhont missiles, which can strike vessels more than 75 miles off the coast of Lebanon, and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad continues to receive significant stockpiles of weapons from both Moscow and Tehran.

These may appear to be piecemeal acquisitions, but these and other new weapons are actively changing the military dynamic in the Middle East...

...Non-state actors are more dangerous than ever.

Hezbollah and Hamas have a combined total of more than 60,000 missiles and rockets -- three times more than they had after the 2006 Lebanon war. That's probably more than Israel's missile defense systems, such as Iron Dome, can handle, meaning that Israeli civilians will once again be at risk in the event of another war with Lebanon or Hamas.

Hezbollah and Hamas's military advances can't solely be understood by the quantity of their weapons. The quality of their equipment is also improving: Hezbollah has reportedly received advanced anti-ship missiles smuggled from Syria into Lebanon, while Hamas has gotten its hands on man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) smuggled in from Libya.

Drones are not just for America and Amazon.

Turkey has them, as do Israel, Morocco, the UAE, and Iran -- and Tehran claims that its drones are reverse-engineered from a crashed American UAV. Baghdad is next: This spring, the Iraqi military will receive 10 ScanEagle drones, which Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government claims it needs to counter a rising al Qaeda threat.

It is only a matter of time before other countries and non-state actors acquire this technology, which only a few years ago was reserved for elite Western militaries. Hezbollah has already started to explore the vulnerabilities that drones may expose in Israel's security -- and once armed drones enter the Middle East, it could change the military landscape entirely.

Iraq is rearming.

Washington is investing heavily in its military ties with Baghdad, delivering an estimated $8 billion in weapons and related services since 2005. And the weapons sales have only increased in recent days: In addition to the 10 ScanEagle drones -- which cost roughly $100,000 apiece -- Baghdad received a shipment of 75 Hellfire missiles, which go for about $70,000 a pop.

These weapons are needed to help restore some semblance of order in the embattled Anbar province, which is now witnessing an al Qaeda resurgence. But even as Washington appears happy to sell Baghdad this advanced weaponry, there are signs the Iraqis are unprepared to use it on their own: According to the New York Times, the Hellfires will be "strapped beneath the wings of small Cessna turboprop planes, and fired at militant camps with the CIA secretly providing targeting assistance."

Such growing pains aside, it's only a matter of time before the Iraqi military gets its act together. And that is now a concern for Washington's lawmakers, who worry that the new Iraqi government has become an Iranian ally -- if not its proxy. Even if Iraq is now fighting al Qaeda, many on Capitol Hill are deeply ambivalent about handing Baghdad its most potent hardware. Notably, lawmakers have hit the brakes on plans to deliver Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters and Boeing AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to Baghdad.

Turkey has a burgeoning arms industry.

This summer, officials from the ruling A.K. Party complained that the U.S. arms industry was the root of all evil. It was responsible, they said, for starting a long list of wars or failing to end others -- the implication was that America was willing to let the Middle East bleed if it meant its defense contractors could make a buck. But it's now Ankara that's building its very own military-industrial complex: Our research shows that Turkey's defense industry -- while still modest when compared to Washington's -- is growing at an impressive clip.

The Turks used to rely on Western-built equipment, but are now opting for domestically developed battle tanks, drones, and attack helicopters. They are also modernizing what they purchase, such as German-built Leopard tanks. Moreover, they are contributing to the production of the F-35 jet, an aircraft both Ankara and Jerusalem are planning to use as their primary fighters in the future.

Saudi Arabia is on a shopping spree.

The Saudis are opening their checkbooks for high-end Western military equipment. The Saudi defense budget, the seventh largest in the world, has increased by 111 percent between 2003 and 2012. The build-up is designed to deter new threats originating out of Iran -- not Israel, for a change.

And Riyadh's buying spree doesn't show any signs of trailing off in the years ahead -- particularly when it comes to air power. The Saudis are now waiting on orders for the first-rate Typhoon and F-15 fighters from Britain and the United States, and they are modernizing their existing F-15 and Tornado fleet.

The Israeli Air Force, by contrast, relies on F-15 and F-16 fighters that are more than a decade old, even with some spiffy modifications. In other words, for Israel, its vaunted qualitative edge in the air may now be diminishing.

There is a huge amount of data to comb through, which means that our conclusions come with a good number of caveats. But the message is clear: The balance of power in the Middle East is getting increasingly difficult to determine, and the changes rocking the region will not make it easier any time soon.

Libya’s Cache of Toxic Arms All Destroyed

WASHINGTON — Even as the international effort to destroy Syria’s vast chemical weapons stockpile lags behind schedule, a similar American-backed campaign carried out under a cloak of secrecy ended successfully last week in another strife-torn country, Libya.

The United States and Libya in the past three months have discreetly destroyed what both sides say were the last remnants of Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi’s lethal arsenal of chemical arms. They used a transportable oven technology to destroy hundreds of bombs and artillery rounds filled with deadly mustard agent, which American officials had feared could fall into the hands of terrorists. The effort also helped inspire the use of the technology in the much bigger disposal plan in Syria.

Since November, Libyan contractors trained in Germany and Sweden have worked in bulky hazmat suits at a tightly guarded site in a remote corner of the Libyan desert, 400 miles southeast of Tripoli, racing to destroy the weapons in a region where extremists linked to Al Qaeda are gaining greater influence. The last artillery shell was destroyed on Jan. 26, officials said.

As Libya’s weak central government grapples with turmoil and unrest, and as kidnappings and assassinations of military and police officers accelerate in the country’s east, American and international weapons specialists hailed the destruction of the Libyan stockpile as a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy security environment.

“It’s a big breakthrough,” said Paul F. Walker, an arms control expert with the environmental group Green Cross International who has helped in efforts to demilitarize the American and Russian chemical weapons stockpiles since the 1990s. “Even though Libya’s chemical stockpile was relatively small, the effort to destroy it was very difficult because of weather, geography and because it’s a dangerous area with warring tribes, increasing the risks of theft and diversion,” he said....

MISC

Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Feb. 3, 2014

January 31, Associated Press – (Georgia) Metro Atlanta transit system restoring most bus and train service. The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority reported January 31 that most buses and trains in the Atlanta area were operating under normal conditions January 31 after a snow and ice storm earlier during the week of January 27 shut those services down.

January 30, WLSTV 7 Chicago – (National) ‘One ring’ cell phone scams, $9.84 credit card charges. The Better Business Bureau warned cell phone users about a “one ring” scam where scammers program computers to call random cell phones from an international number and hang up after one ring. If a user calls the number back, an automatic $19.95 international call fee plus $9.00 per minute is charged.

February 3, Softpedia – (International) PayPal and eBay websites defaced by Syrian Electronic Army. Attackers claiming affiliation with the Syrian Electronic Army hacktivist group defaced several pages belonging to eBay and PayPal. Affected PayPal pages included pages from the service’s French, British, and Indian sites.

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

Geopolitical Weekly: February 4, 2014

A More Assertive German Foreign Policy 

By George Friedman and Marc Lanthemann  

The Ukrainian crisis is important in itself, but the behavior it has elicited from Germany is perhaps more important. Berlin directly challenged Ukraine's elected president for refusing to tighten relations with the European Union and for mistreating Ukrainians who protested his decision. In challenging President Viktor Yanukovich, Berlin also challenged Russia, a reflection of Germany's recent brazen foreign policy. 

Since the end of World War II, Germany has pursued a relatively tame foreign policy. But over the past week, Berlin appeared to have acknowledged the need for a fairly dramatic change. German leaders, including the chancellor, the president, the foreign minister and the defense minister, have called for a new framework that contravenes the restraint Germany has practiced for so long. They want Germany to assume a greater international role by becoming more involved outside its borders politically and militarily. 

For Berlin, the announcement of this high-level strategic shift comes amid a maelstrom of geopolitical currents. As the de facto leader of the European Union, Germany has to contend with and correct the slow failure of the European project. It has to adjust to the U.S. policy of global disengagement, and it must manage a complex, necessary and dangerous relationship with Russia. A meek foreign policy is not well suited to confront the situation in which Germany now finds itself. If Germany doesn't act, then who will? And if someone else does, will it be in Germany's interest? The latter is perhaps the more intriguing question. 

Setting Boundaries 

Such a reconfiguration shows that Germany has its own national interests that may differ from those of its alliance partners. For most countries, this would seem self-evident. But for Germany, it is a radical position, given its experience in World War II. It has refrained from asserting a strong foreign policy and from promoting its national interest lest it revive fears of German aggression and German nationalism. The Germans may have decided that this position is no longer tenable -- and that promoting their national interests does not carry the risk it once did. 

The timing of the announcement, as Ukraine's strategic position between Russia and Europe continues to make headlines, was not coincidental. While the timing benefited Germany, it would be a mistake to ascribe too much importance to Ukraine itself, particularly from the German perspective. That is not to say Ukraine should be discounted entirely. As a borderland between the European Peninsula and Russia, its future potentially matters to Germany -- if not now then perhaps in the future, when unexpected regional realities might show themselves. 

Ukraine is an indispensable borderland for Russia, but it has little value for any modern power that has no designs against Russia. It is one of the gateways into the heart of Russia. A hostile power occupying Ukraine would threaten Russian national security. But the reverse is not true: Ukraine is not a primary route from Russia into Europe (World War II is a notable exception) because the Carpathian Mountains discourage invasion. So unless the Germans are planning a new war with Russia -- and they aren't -- Ukraine matters little to Europe or the Germans. 

The same is true in the economic realm. Ukraine is important to Russia, particularly for transporting energy to Europe. But outside of energy transport, Ukraine is not that important to Europe. Indeed, for all that has been said about Ukraine's relationship to the European Union, it has never been clear why the bloc has made it such a contentious issue. The European Union is tottering under the weight of Southern Europe's enormously high unemployment rate, Eastern Europe's uncertainty about the value of being part of Europe's banking system and currency union, and a growing policy rift between France and Germany. The chances that the Europeans would add Ukraine to an organization that already boasts Greece, Cyprus and other crippled economies are so slim that considerations to the contrary would be irrational. The fact that Ukraine is not getting into the bloc makes German policy even harder to fathom. 

Of course, some European countries have more of an interest in Ukraine than others, particularly those formerly in the Soviet sphere of influence. For Poland and the Baltic states, Russia remains the major geopolitical foe in a way that Western Europe cannot fully comprehend. These relatively small and new members cannot compel the EU heavyweights to commit to a plan of action that would go too far in provoking Russia, but they can still push their peers to take a more measured action. 

During the Orange Revolution, U.S.-led Western powers openly funded opposition groups in the former Soviet states, threatening Russia's strategic interests to the point that it had to eventually invade Georgia to show the consequences of Western meddling. Over the past month, Germany has been behaving similarly, albeit to a smaller degree: opening partisan ties and giving relatively low-cost financial and rhetorical support to opposition groups that can irritate Russia without actually causing an immediate break with Moscow. 

For the past decade, Germany could not afford to alienate Russia, which Berlin thought could be the answers to some of Germany's problems. It could reliably supply relatively cheap energy, it was a potential source of low-cost labor, and it was a potential destination market for German exporters looking for alternatives to stagnating EU markets. 

Diplomatically, Moscow could have become a close ally and strategic partner as erstwhile allies appeared to be growing increasingly hostile to Germany. Relations with the United States were tense ever since Berlin refused to participate in the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, and Chancellor Angela Merkel's support for EU-wide austerity measures strained Germany's ties with Southern Europe and France. 

But the reality was otherwise. There is a fit between Germany and Russia, but it is at best an imperfect one. Russia never industrialized or modernized as Germany and many others had hoped as it reaped the profits of high commodity prices. Under President Vladimir Putin, Moscow became increasingly autocratic and went on the political and economic offensive in Central and Eastern Europe. 

This conflicts with Germany's strategic goals. Berlin's core imperative is to preserve its economic power, which is highly dependent on exports. The European economic crisis has caused consumption to falter in the European Union, leading Berlin to search for export markets further afield. While it has had some success in China and the United States for certain industries, it has not been able to shed its overwhelming dependence on European markets as a general destination for its goods. Thus, Germany's only possible course of action is preserving and eventually reinvigorating the free trade zone in Europe. 

Russia's resurgence in Central Europe has concerned EU members in that region. On the surface, the Germans were prepared to live with that resurgence even though it appeared to threaten to unravel the bloc. Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are indispensable components of the German industrial supply chain and a source of relatively cheap skilled labor. That they should remain in the German sphere of influence is a non-negotiable position for Berlin. 

These issues are not new, but until now Germany had been constrained in how it could establish firm boundaries with Moscow. Berlin believed its dependence on Russian energy was a vulnerability that Russia could exploit if it chose to. In addition, it was concerned about Russia's ability to wrest Central Europe from EU control. In a worst-case scenario, Germany would end up with a fragmented Europe, a distant United States and a hostile Russia. 

The fact that Germany actively supported opposition groups in Ukraine, particularly in the absence of a pressing strategic imperative to do so, is a sign that something has changed in Berlin's calculus toward Russia. It seems as though the German government has determined that Russia is facing major challenges at home; that its position in Europe is weaker than it appears; that the risk of energy cutoffs are minimal; and that there are no long-term economic benefits to an economic relationship with Russia that goes beyond energy trade. That last point cannot be overstated. Russia is poised to remain the most important supplier of energy to Europe, and while the dependency runs both ways -- Europe is Russia's largest customer -- Germany will make sure the flow of energy continues unimpeded. 

With the United States increasingly depending on a balance of power approach to its foreign policy, relying more heavily on regional actors to manage threats, the long-term U.S. security guarantees that had been the hallmark of European defense since 1945 can no longer be counted on in Berlin. As NATO continues to fray and the challenges posed by an increasingly volatile Russia loom, Germany seems to be taking the first step back into establishing a new national and regional security framework. 

A New Element 

Germany's talk of a new, more assertive foreign policy that relies more heavily on its military is, however, not solely linked to concerns over Russia or the United States. Germany has accepted that its only option is to rally Europe but as the past six years have shown, it has had limited success on the economic front. The European Union is an economic entity, but economics has turned from being the binding element to being a centripetal force. Either something new must be introduced into the European experiment, or it might come undone. 

Berlin believes that holding the European Union together requires adding another dimension that it heretofore has withheld in its dealing with the bloc: military-political relations. Standing up to a weakening Russia will appeal to Central European nations, and taking a more active role overseas would endear Berlin to Paris. Germany's allusions that it would expand its international military operations, particularly in Africa, is a clear nod to France, which has consistently expressed its desire for a deeper military and political partnership with Germany. 

Notably, the drive to bring Germany closer to France in the short term could create tensions between them in the long term. Last week's summit between British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Francois Hollande was a reminder that France and the United Kingdom may have extremely different views regarding the European Union but still see each other as a military partner and, more important, as a counterweight to Germany. 

Of course, Germany is in no position to take military action. It is in a position to posit the possibility in some vague way, thereby generating political forces that can temporarily hold things together. Berlin needs to buy time, particularly in Central Europe, where Hungary has embarked on an independent course and is being watched carefully by others. With the United States unwilling to become involved, Germany either becomes the counterweight or lives with the consequences. 

At first, Germany's actions seemed confusing and uncharacteristic. But they become more sensible when you consider that that Berlin is looking for other tools to hold the European Union together as it re-evaluates Russia. So far, Germany's announcement has been met positively, mainly outside Germany, but the tension that a stronger and more assertive Berlin exerts on the European continent and the global stage are sure to come to the fore again. For now, however, Merkel has no choice.

A More Assertive German Foreign Policy is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Officer Down

Deputy Sheriff David "Bubba" Johnson
Montgomery County Tennessee Sheriff's Office
End of Watch: Sunday, January 12, 2014
Age: 52

Deputy Sheriff David Johnson was killed in a single vehicle crash on U.S. 41A Bypass at approximately 11:20 pm.

His patrol car left the roadway and struck a tree, causing him to suffer fatal injuries.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Geopolitical Weekly: January 28, 2014

Perspectives on the Ukrainian Protests

By George Friedman

A few months ago, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was expected to sign some agreements that could eventually integrate Ukraine with the European Union economically. Ultimately, Yanukovich refused to sign the agreements, a decision thousands of his countrymen immediately protested. The demonstrations later evolved, as they often do. Protesters started calling for political change, and when Yanukovich resisted their calls, they demanded new elections.

Some protesters wanted Ukraine to have a European orientation rather than a Russian one. Others felt that the government was corrupt and should thus be replaced. These kinds of demonstrations occur in many countries. Sometimes they're successful; sometimes they're not. In most cases, the outcome matters only to the country's citizens or to the citizens of neighboring states. But Ukraine is exceptional because it is enormously important. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has had to pursue a delicate balance between the tenuous promises of a liberal, wealthy and somewhat aloof Europe and the fact that its very existence and independence can be a source of strategic vulnerability for Russia.

Ukraine's Importance

Ukraine provides two things: strategic position and agricultural and mineral products. The latter are frequently important, but the former is universally important. Ukraine is central to Russia's defensibility. The two countries share a long border, and Moscow is located only some 480 kilometers (about 300 miles) from Ukrainian territory -- a stretch of land that is flat, easily traversed and thus difficult to defend. If some power were to block the Ukraine-Kazakh gap, Russia would be cut off from the Caucasus, its defensible southern border.

Moreover, Ukraine is home to two critical ports, Odessa and Sevastopol, which are even more important to Russia than the port of Novorossiysk. Losing commercial and military access to those ports would completely undermine Russia's influence in the Black Sea and cut off its access to the Mediterranean. Russia's only remaining ports would be blocked by the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. gap to the west, by ice to the northeast, by Denmark on the Baltic Sea, and by Japan in the east.

This explains why in 1917, when the Bolsheviks took power and sued for peace, the Germans demanded that Russia relinquish its control of most of Ukraine. The Germans wanted the food Ukraine produced and knew that if they had a presence there they could threaten Russia in perpetuity. In the end, it didn't matter: Germany lost Word War I, and Russia reclaimed Ukraine. During World War II, the Germans seized Ukraine in the first year of their attack on the Soviet Union, exploited its agriculture and used it as the base to attack Stalingrad, trying to sever Russia from its supply lines in Baku. Between the wars, Stalin had to build up his industrial plant. He sold Ukrainian food overseas and used it to feed factory workers in Russia. The Ukrainians were left to starve, but the industry they built eventually helped the Soviets defeat Hitler. After the Soviets drove the Germans back, they seized Romania and Hungary and drove to Vienna, using Ukraine as their base.

From the perspective of Europe, and particularly from the perspectives of former Soviet satellites, a Ukraine dominated by Russia would represent a potential threat from southern Poland to Romania. These countries already depend on Russian energy, fully aware that the Russians may eventually use that dependence as a lever to gain control over them. Russia's ability not simply to project military power but also to cause unrest along the border or use commercial initiatives to undermine autonomy is a real fear.

Thinking in military terms may seem more archaic to Westerners than it does to Russians and Central Europeans. For many Eastern Europeans, the Soviet withdrawal is a relatively recent memory, and they know that the Russians are capable of returning as suddenly as they left. For their part, the Russians know that NATO has no will to invade Russia, and war would be the last thing on the Germans' minds even if they were capable of waging one. The Russians also remember that for all the economic and military malaise in Germany in 1932, the Germans became the dominant power in Europe by 1939. By 1941, they were driving into the Russian heartland. The farther you move away from a borderland, the more fantastic the fears appear. But inside the borderland, the fears seem far less preposterous for both sides.

Russian Perspectives

From the Russian point of view, therefore, tighter Ukrainian-EU integration represented a potentially mortal threat to Russian national security. After the Orange Revolution, which brought a short-lived pro-EU administration to power in the mid-2000s, Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that he regarded Ukraine as essential to Russian security, alleging that the nongovernmental organizations that were fomenting unrest there were fronts for the U.S. State Department, the CIA and MI6. Whether the charges were true or not, Putin believed the course in which Ukraine was headed would be disastrous for Russia, and so he used economic pressure and state intelligence services to prevent Ukraine from taking that course.

In my view, the 2008 Russo-Georgian War had as much to do with demonstrating to Kiev that Western guarantees were worthless, that the United States could not aid Georgia and that Russia had a capable military force as it did with Georgia itself. At the time, Georgia and Ukraine were seeking NATO and EU membership, and through its intervention in Georgia, Moscow succeeded in steering Ukraine away from these organizations. Today, the strategic threat to Russia is no less dire than it was 10 years ago, at least not in minds of the Russians, who would prefer a neutral Ukraine if not a pro-Russia Ukraine.

Notably, Putin's strategy toward the Russian periphery differs from those of his Soviet and czarist predecessors, who took direct responsibility for the various territories subordinate to them. Putin considers this a flawed strategy. It drained Moscow's resources, even as the government could not hold the territories together.

Putin's strategy toward Ukraine, and indeed most of the former Soviet Union, entails less direct influence. He is not interested in governing Ukraine. He is not even all that interested in its foreign relationships. His goal is to have negative control, to prevent Ukraine from doing the things Russia doesn't want it to do. Ukraine can be sovereign except in matters of fundamental importance to Russia. As far as Russia was concerned, the Ukrainian regime is free to be as liberal and democratic as it wants to be. But even the idea of further EU integration was a clear provocation. It was the actions of the European Union and the Germans -- supporting opponents of Yanukovich openly, apart from interfering in the internal affairs of another country -- that were detrimental to Russian national interests.

European Perspectives

Ukraine is not quite as strategically significant to Europe as it is to Russia. Europe never wanted to add Ukraine to its ranks; it merely wanted to open the door to the possibility. The European Union is in shambles. Given the horrific economic problems of Southern Europe, the idea of adding a country as weak and disorganized as Ukraine to the bloc is preposterous. The European Union has a cultural imperative among its elite toward expansion, an imperative that led them to include countries such as Cyprus. Cultural imperatives are hard to change, and so an invitation went out with no serious intentions behind it.

For the Europeans, what the invitation really meant was that Ukraine could become European. It could have the constitutional democracy, liberalism and prosperity that every EU state is supposed to have. This is what appealed to most of the early demonstrators. However improbable full membership might be, the idea of becoming a modern European society is overwhelmingly appealing. Yanukovich's rejection made some protesters feel that their great opportunity had slipped away -- hence the initial demonstrations.

The Germans are playing a complex game. They understood that Ukrainian membership in the European Union was unlikely to happen anytime soon. They also had important dealings with Russia, with which they had mutual energy and investment interests. It was odd that Berlin would support the demonstrators so publicly. However, the Germans were also managing coalitions within the European Union. The Baltic states and Poland were eager to see Ukraine drawn out of the Russian camp, since that would provide a needed, if incomplete, buffer between them and Russia (Belarus is still inside Russia's sphere of influence). Therefore, the Germans had to choose between European partners, who cared about Ukraine, and Russia.

The Russians have remained relatively calm -- and quiet -- throughout Ukraine's protests. They understood that their power in Ukraine rested on more than simply one man or his party, so they allowed the crisis to stew. Given Russia's current strategy in Ukraine, the Russians didn't need to act, at least not publicly. Any government in Ukraine would face the same constraints as Yanukovich: little real hope of EU inclusion, a dependence on Moscow for energy and an integrated economy with Russia. Certainly, the Russians didn't want a confrontation just before Sochi.

The Russians also knew that the more tightly pro-Western forces controlled Kiev, the more fractious Ukraine could become. In general, eastern Ukraine is more oriented toward Russia: Its residents speak Russian, are Russian Orthodox and are loyal to the Moscow Patriarchy. Western Ukraine is oriented more toward Europe; its residents are Catholic or are loyal to the Kiev Patriarchy. These generalities belie a much more complex situation, of course. There are Moscow Orthodox members and Russian speakers in the west and Catholics and Kiev Orthodox in the east. Nevertheless, the tension between the regions is real, and heavy pro-EU pressure could split the country. If that were to happen, the bloc would find itself operating in chaos, but then the European Union did not have the wherewithal to operate meaningfully in Ukraine in the first place. The pro-EU government would encounter conflict and paralysis. For the time being that would suit the Russians, as unlikely as such a scenario might be.

U.S. Perspectives

As in most matters, it is important to understand where the United States fits in, if at all. Washington strongly supported the Orange Revolution, creating a major rift with Russia. The current policy of avoiding unnecessary involvement in Eurasian conflicts would suggest that the United States would stay out of Ukraine. But Russian behavior in the Snowden affair has angered Washington and opened the possibility that the United States might be happy to create some problems for Moscow ahead of the Sochi Olympics. The U.S. government may not be supporting nongovernmental organizations as much as its counterparts in Europe are, but it is still involved somewhat. In fact, Washington may even have enjoyed putting Russia on the defensive after having been put on the defensive by Russia in recent months.

In any case, the stakes are high in Ukraine. The Russians are involved in a game they cannot afford to lose. There are several ways for them to win it. They only need to make the EU opening untenable for the Ukrainians, something Ukraine's economic and social conditions facilitate. The Europeans are not going to be surging into Ukraine anytime soon, and while Poland would prefer that Ukraine remain neutral, Warsaw does not necessarily need a pro-Western Ukraine. The United States is interested in Ukraine as an irritant to Russia but is unwilling to take serious risks.

A lot of countries have an interest in Ukraine, none more so than Russia. But for all the noise in Kiev and other cities, the outcome is unlikely to generate a definitive geopolitical shift in Ukraine. It does, however, provide an excellent example of how political unrest in a strategically critical country can affect the international system as a whole.

In most countries, the events in Kiev would not have generated global interest. When you are a country like Ukraine, even nominal instability generates not only interest but also pressure and even intervention from all directions. This has been the historical problem of Ukraine. It is a country in an important location, and the pressures on it tend to magnify any internal conflicts until they destabilize the country in excess of the significance of the internal issues. Germany and the United States may continue to pursue goals that will further irritate Russia, but as Stratfor indicated in our 2014 annual forecast, they will avoid actions that would risk harming Moscow's ties with Washington and Berlin. Russian influence in Ukraine is currently being limited by the proximity of the Olympics and the escalation in protests on the ground, but the fundamental geopolitical reality is that no country has a higher stake in Ukraine than Russia, nor a better ability to shape its fate.

Perspectives on the Ukrainian Protests is republished with permission of Stratfor.

What's going on in the World Today 140202

As it it Superbowl Sunday and I’m sitting on my easy chair, with my dog Elmer next to me, a pizza on the way and scotch going in, I have to start this post with the words of the greatest coach in the history of the league, Vince Lombari. Sorry, no argument on this. The trophy of the championship is named for him!

What It Takes to be Number One

"Winning is not a sometime thing; it's an all the time thing. You don't win once in a while; you don't do things right once in a while; you do them right all of the time. Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.

There is no room for second place. There is only one place in my game, and that's first place. I have finished second twice in my time at Green Bay, and I don't ever want to finish second again. There is a second place bowl game, but it is a game for losers played by losers. It is and always has been an American zeal to be first in anything we do, and to win, and to win, and to win.

Every time a football player goes to ply his trade he's got to play from the ground up - from the soles of his feet right up to his head. Every inch of him has to play. Some guys play with their heads. That's O.K. You've got to be smart to be number one in any business. But more importantly, you've got to play with your heart, with every fiber of your body. If you're lucky enough to find a guy with a lot of head and a lot of heart, he's never going to come off the field second.

Running a football team is no different than running any other kind of organization - an army, a political party or a business. The principles are the same. The object is to win - to beat the other guy. Maybe that sounds hard or cruel. I don't think it is.

It is a reality of life that men are competitive and the most competitive games draw the most competitive men. That's why they are there - to compete. The object is to win fairly, squarely, by the rules - but to win.

And in truth, I've never known a man worth his salt who in the long run, deep down in his heart, didn't appreciate the grind, the discipline. There is something in good men that really yearns for discipline and the harsh reality of head to head combat.

I don't say these things because I believe in the ‘brute' nature of men or that men must be brutalized to be combative. I believe in God, and I believe in human decency. But I firmly believe that any man's finest hour -- his greatest fulfillment to all he holds dear -- is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted -- victorious.

HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:

USA
The Military Has Cataloged Its Ethical Failures, and They're Kind of Awesome

Did you hear the one about the first lieutenant who had to pay $120,000 in fines for accepting bribes from contractors he'd awarded with lucrative Defense Department deals? Or the Navy civilian working who asked a fence contractor for a $5,000 payment so the contractor could be "recommended" for a $153,000 contract? What about the four senior officials, including two Air Force generals, a Marine general and a Navy admiral, who extended their stay in Tokyo to play golf at an illegal cost of $3,000 to the government?

The thing is, those aren't jokes. They're true stories. And they point to a growing problem within the military: a pattern of misconduct, misbehavior and outright thievery by senior generals, top Pentagon civilian officials and of course, the rank-and-file.

The laundry list of wrongdoing, in the Defense Department and in various other government agencies, is contained in a surprisingly readable but unknown document compiled by the equally unknown Defense Department's General Counsel's Standards of Conduct Office.

The name of the July 2013 report says it all: The Encyclopedia of Ethical Failure, a 164-page who's who of bureaucratic nee'r do wells that details all of those government personnel who have tried to fleece the government, line their pockets with public money, use government property for their own use or demand loans from subordinates.
There is a section on credit card abuse, another on political endorsements. There's one on financial aid disclosures, and others on fraud, gambling and gift violations. The Defense Department likes to say that most of its personnel are law-abiding, upstanding citizens, and that's true. But the numerous cases listed in the document beg the question: who does this kind of thing?

"Our goal is to provide DoD personnel with real examples of federal employees who have intentionally or unwittingly violated the standards of conduct," the introduction reads. "Some cases are humorous, some sad, and all are real.”…
http://complex.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/01/30/the_military_has_catalogued_its_ethical_failures_and_theyre_kind_of_awesome

January 28, Baltimore Sun – (Maryland) Tool containing radioactive material stolen Monday in Baltimore. The Maryland Department of the Environment stated January 27 that a device containing a small amount of radioactive material used to measure lead in paint was stolen in Baltimore and requested the public’s help in recovering it.

January 29, WWJ 62 Detroit – (Michigan) One person arrested in New Center bomb scare, evacuation. Medical offices, several businesses, and a preschool in the New Center One building in Detroit were evacuated January 29 for more than 3 hours due to a bomb threat. One person was arrested in connection to the threat and police cleared the scene after a search determined there were no explosive devices in the building.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 30, 2014

AFRICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ASIA

Central Asia's Troubled Waters: Resource Allocation Stokes Tensions

Thailand: Red Shirts Suggest Northern Capital In Event Of Coup January 31, 2014

Pro-government red shirt supporters in northern Thailand say they are ready to resist any attempt by the military to stage a coup, the South China Morning Post reported Jan. 31. Some supporters said they expect Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to set up a government in Chiang Mai if the army tries to seize power in Bangkok. So far the army has not taken a stance on the political unrest in Thailand. After a coup in 2006 and a bloody crackdown in 2010, it has tried to play a subtler role in politics. But the military has left open the possibility of an intervention should violence escalate.

Romania Looks To Streamline Decision-Making in a Changing Region

The Challenging Road Ahead for Ukraine

Tensions Over Water Resources in Central Asia

Myanmar: Police In Border Areas Want Firearms January 31, 2014

Police in Myanmar's border areas have asked to be equipped with firearms, alleging attacks against them by Muslim residents, Eleven Myanmar reported Jan. 31. Police say there have been seven such attacks in Rakhine state's Maungdaw township since 2011. Violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Rakhine has regional implications, and Myanmar is wary of militancy from Rohingya Muslims in the state, where it suspects Bangladesh could play a hand in stoking tensions.

NIGHTWATCH 140130

Pakistan: This week, the Pakistani Taliban welcomed peace talks with the government. In return, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made a statement on internal security to the National Assembly on the 29th. Excerpts follow.

"… now that the other party has offered talks, we want to give a peaceful solution another chance by putting aside the bitter experiences of the past. It is necessary for the success of talks that this process should be started with honesty. The first requirement for this would be that acts of terrorism are stopped immediately. Talks and terrorism cannot go together…."

"…From the floor of this house today I announce the formation of a four-member committee in this connection. The committee will include my Special Assistant for National Affairs Irfan Siddiqui; Major, retired, Muhammad Amir, who belongs to a renowned religious family of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; Rahimullah Yousufzai, who not only is an expert on the affairs of this region but is also a renowned journalist of national stature, and former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan Rustam Shah Mohmand, who has been nominated in consultation with the government of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Federal Minister for Interior Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan who has been the focal person of the whole talks exercise in accordance with the decision of the All Parties Conference, will assist in the committee's day to day affairs and I myself will directly oversee this whole process."

Comment: Prime Minister Sharif and his PML (N) party promised peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban as part of their election campaign last year. After months of false starts, interrupted by drone or other attacks, the government is trying again.

The two sides remain far apart as to terms for a settlement, but a ceasefire agreement even of limited duration or application would represent progress. In his statement, the Prime Minister argued strongly that future drone attacks should not derail talks because Pakistanis do not control the drones.

Turkey: 500 Police Officers Removed From Capital January 30, 2014

Turkey fired or reassigned around 500 police officers, including some senior officers, on Jan. 30, AFP reported. The government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has now sanctioned roughly 6,000 police officers nationwide in apparent retaliation for a corruption investigation.

EUROPE

The Shared Geopolitical Challenges of Germany and Japan

Germany: Berlin Plans To Cut Renewable Energy Subsidies January 30, 2014

German Energy Minister Sigmar Gabriel announced plans to cut state subsidies for renewable energies in an address to the Bundestag lower house on Jan. 30, DW reported. The move is an effort to contain the high costs for industry and regular consumers brought about by a move to renewable energy. Gabriel reaffirmed his commitment to renewable energy sources, a planned solution to Germany's energy needs as it moves away from nuclear power.

MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

Unusual Social Unrest in Cuba

Romania Looks To Streamline Decision-Making in a Changing Region

Notable Protests in Cuba

AFGHANISTAN

After billions in U.S. investment, Afghan roads are falling apart

SAYEDABAD, Afghanistan — They look like victims of an insurgent attack — their limbs in need of amputation, their skulls cracked — but the patients who pour daily into the Ghazni Provincial Hospital are casualties of another Afghan crisis.

They are motorists who drove on the road network built by the U.S. government and other Western donors — a $4 billion project that was once a symbol of promise in post-Taliban Afghanistan but is now falling apart.

Western officials say the Afghan government is unable to maintain even a fraction of the roads and highways constructed since 2001, when the country had less than 50 miles of paved roads. The deterioration has hurt commerce and slowed military operations. In many places, the roads once deemed the hallmark of America’s development effort have turned into death traps, full of cars careening into massive bomb-blast craters or sliding off crumbling pavement.

“There’s been nothing. No maintenance,” said a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the issue publicly.

Since 2012, the United States has refused to fund the Afghan government’s road maintenance projects because it has no faith in the country’s ability to perform even simple tasks, such as dispatching a contractor to fill in a pothole or repaving a stretch of highway.

Despite those concerns, the U.S. government is still building new roads in Afghanistan, multimillion-dollar projects whose funds were allocated years ago.

The Afghans say they are doing some maintenance but claim the cutoff in U.S. funds has left them hamstrung.

“We don’t have enough money to work as they did,” said Mohammad Aref Raiskhel, the director of maintenance at Afghanistan’s Ministry of Public Works. “I beg them to help us once again.”

Before the U.S. invasion in 2001, almost all of Afghanistan’s roads — mostly Soviet-built — had been destroyed by war and neglect. The new, U.S.-built highways seemed to be a godsend for this impoverished nation. But the projects became notorious for their exorbitant costs and poorly implemented contracts. Sometimes, money landed in the hands of the Taliban in exchange for a tacit cease-fire during road construction.

Now the rapid deterioration of the roads could come to symbolize a failure to preserve key gains.

Some of the roughly 10,000 miles of roads and highways built by Western donors have been worn away by overuse. Others are shredded by hundreds of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) laid by insurgents. Not long ago, U.S. troops and contractors repaired them, but those resources are now gone….



CHINA

China Making Air Force, Navy Upgrades, U.S. Officials Say

China’s air force is fielding new precision-guided cruise missiles, long-range bombers and drones as its Navy expands its long-range punch, according to U.S. military intelligence officials.

“While we would not characterize the modernization as accelerated,” it’s “progressing at a steady pace” and is significant, Lee Fuell, a director at the Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center, said in a presentation released yesterday.

Fuell’s presentation and one prepared by the Office of Naval Intelligence for a hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington are the most detailed new public assessments of the Chinese air force’s and navy’s growing military capabilities.

While China’s military spending is less than one-fifth of the U.S.’s, President Xi Jinping has vowed to create a strong and disciplined military since he took control of the Central Military Commission when he became party secretary in November 2012. Under Xi, the Chinese navy has conducted military drills in the Pacific and the South China Sea, and in November the nation declared an air defense identification zone over islands disputed with Japan.

China is improving its air and naval power to blunt U.S. military prowess in the Pacific, project force farther from Chinese shores, and even blockade or invadeTaiwan, the island democracy whose territory it claims.

Source: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images

Soldiers of Jinan Military Region check a jet fighter during a China Air Force Military...Read More

“Given the pace” of China’s naval modernization, “the gap in military capability between the mainland and Taiwan will continue to widen in China’s favor,” wrote Jesse Karotkin, the ONI senior intelligence officer on China, in the newstatement to the commission.

In addition, the naval intelligence office said in its report “many of these capabilities are designed specifically to deter or prevent U.S. military intervention in the region.”

Cruise Missiles

Deploying additional land-attack cruise missiles on new submarines and surface vessels “could enhance China’s ability to strike key U.S. bases throughout the region, including Guam,” said the 12-page naval intelligence assessment.

The Chinese army, which manages and operates the missile force, “is progressing at a steady pace” in expanding its arsenal of medium-range ballistic missiles armed with conventional warheads to increase the range “at which it can conduct precision strikes against land targets and naval ships (including aircraft carriers) operating far from China’s shores out to the first island chain,” Fuell said in his presentation.

The rapid, widespread fielding of Chinese-made anti-ship cruise missiles with ranges greater than 100 nautical miles is typical of the developments in a navy transitioning from a coastal maritime force to one “capable of multiple missions,” wrote Karotkin.

‘Improve Capability’

The goal of China’s upgrades “is to improve capability to conduct offensive and defensive operations such as strike, air and missile defense, power projection, and early warning and reconnaissance,” said Fuell, the Air Force intelligence center’s technical director for force modernization and employment, in testimony prepared for the review commission, a panel created by the U.S. Congress.

“We believe the Chinese are not trying to match the U.S. system vs. system, but are pursuing more of a system-of-systems approach that exploits what they perceive to be adversary weaknesses or exploitable vulnerabilities,” he said.

China’s air force upgrades are in tandem with fielding long-range anti-ship cruise missiles on half of its 62 submarines, developing more mines to add to its inventory of 50,000, and a “dramatic improvement” in its navy’s ability to conduct satellite reconnaissance of broad areas, according to the naval intelligence officeassessment.

Threaten Adversaries

The growing arsenal also will enhance China’s ability to threaten potential adversaries and “significantly expand its counter-intervention capability further into the Philippine Sea and South China Sea,” it said.

China has grown increasingly assertive in territorial disputes with its neighbors, including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines. Still, a conflict in the South China Sea would strain the Chinese air force’s ability “to project airpower in a sustained fashion,” in part because of its “limited aerial refueling capabilities,” said Fuell.

China will cross a major threshold by 2020, when its new aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, is expected to be capable of launching and recovering aircraft “to support fleet operations in a limited air defense role,” the ONI said.

IRAN

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

IRAQ

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ISRAEL

Egypt: Al Qaeda-Linked Group Claims Rocket Attack On Israel February 1, 2014

Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, a Sinai-based militant group that may have ties to al Qaeda claimed responsibility Feb. 1 for a failed rocket attack on the Israeli city of Eilat a day earlier, Reuters reported. The Jan. 31 attack was thwarted by Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which translates to "Supporters of Jerusalem," has claimed several recent high-profile attacks in Egypt and rapidly become one of the most active jihadist groups in the world.

RUSSIA

2. January 28, Wired.com – (International) Coder behind notorious bank-hacking tool pleads guilty. A Russian man extradited from the Dominican Republic pleaded guilty in an Atlanta court to developing, selling, and customizing the SpyEye banking trojan that infected more than 1.4 million computers. The trojan was sold to over 150 customers worldwide who used it to compromise thousands of bank accounts and steal millions of dollars. 
Source: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2014/01/spy-eye-author-guilty-plea/

SYRIA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

Egypt: Cabinet Reshuffle To Include Defense Ministry February 1, 2014

Interim Egyptian Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi said Feb. 1 that an upcoming Cabinet reshuffle will include the Defense Ministry, a sign that Field Marshal Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi plans to run for president, Al-Arabiya and al-Masry al-Youm reported. Al-Sisi, the current defense minister, must step down from the post in order to run for president. In backing al-Sisi's political pursuits, the armed forces are attempting to create a new civilian ruling class led by generals.

MISC

Tensions Over Water Resources in Central Asia

Political and Economic Volatility in Important Markets

January 29, Threatpost – (International) High-volume DDoS attacks top operational threat to businesses, service providers. Arbor Networks released its Worldwide Infrastructure Security Report and found that distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks were the largest operational threat to service providers and enterprises, reaching unprecedented levels in 2013, among other findings.

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

K9 Down

K9 Gus
Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida
End of Watch: Thursday, August 1, 2013
Breed: Labrador Retriever
Cause: Duty related illness

K9 Gus died after inhaling a foreign object into his lung while performing a track for a missing woman in Hillsborough River State Park.

He was deployed after several previous searches failed to locate the missing woman. Gus' track was successful and the woman's body was in the park. However, K9 Gus inhaled an object into his lung that lead to his death a short time later.

K9 Gus had served with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission for four years.

Rest in Peace …and enjoy running the green grass of Heaven!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Oakland, you have problems....

I have cop friends in California and I've told them more than once, "How the hell you work out there I can't figure out!" Every large city has some local "activist" that are opposed to law and order. But generally you at least have the administration, to one degree or another, to back you up. In Oakland....

Oakland Cops Think City Is Too Liberal

An internal survey of Oakland police officers reveals a deep disconnect between rank-and-file cops and the city they serve. Many officers said they do not trust the city's elected leaders and think they are too "liberal." A majority of city cops also complain that Oakland residents don't appreciate them. And officers think that department brass and city leadership are too focused on eradicating police misconduct and implementing court-mandated reforms. In addition, the survey reveals a stark division within the department between an old guard that is resistant to change and new officers who want OPD to become a modern, progressive police force.

The survey, which was conducted last fall, also paints a portrait of a police force that is plagued by low morale, distrust at all levels, and a lack of basic equipment and staff. The survey results also show that the department's patrol cops feel unfairly targeted by commanders for discipline and for what they view as unfair Internal Affairs investigations. Cops speak of a "culture of fear" that pervades the agency — fear of making mistakes and being "persecuted." We obtained the survey's results through a California Public Records Act request.

Perhaps most shocking are the survey's raw results: 65 percent of OPD's sworn officers reported not feeling valued by the department for the work they do. In addition, 55 percent of officers said they do not "feel valued by the citizens" of Oakland. And most Oakland cops have little faith in their own commanders. One survey question asked, "Do you believe commanders/managers treat members/employees fairly in the organization?" 64 percent of Oakland's cops responded "no."

More than half of the city's police officers also do not believe "that hard work and good work performance helps one get ahead," within OPD, and some officers say that the agency has become the "laughing stock" of law enforcement agencies.

Mayor Jean Quan and the city council received the lowest vote of confidence from OPD's officers. A whopping 84 percent of cops said they do not feel valued by the rest of Oakland city government. Echoing a line often used by the Oakland police union, one officer pushed for the council to give the police department greater leeway in running its day-to-day affairs: "Insulate employees from constant political turmoil and external pressures. City and Department need to stop rolling over for whoever screams the loudest at city council meetings. This City is hamstrung by political correctness and failed liberal agendas."

Another officer called the city council "crazy liberal." The same officer opined that cops accused of disrespectful conduct in the field were simply reflecting the nature of their working conditions: "The Department expects officers to treat citizens with respect, but when you look [at] the working conditions at OPD it is understandable. The building is gross. There is no equipment ...."

Few respondents had kind words for OPD's leadership. Common complaints centered on discipline. Many officers claimed that commanders use the requirements of the federal consent decree to shirk responsibility and arbitrarily punish subordinates.

"The general perception is that the command has been sacrificing officers to appease the monitors and the federal judge," one officer wrote. "Bringing policy change that will not hamstring the officer from doing their job for fear of reprisal from command would be the greatest incentive the department could offer."

Other Oakland cops believe that the federal consent decree — which was instituted in 2003 following a police misconduct scandal involving rogue cops known as The Riders — has resulted in a drive by internal affairs to discipline officers in order to appease US District Judge Thelton Henderson and his appointees. The officers think such actions reduce OPD's effectiveness in combating crime. One officer wrote that command staffers "only think about themselves and their survival," and that they "stand in the shadows when things get tough."...

For those of you don't know, a "Consent Decree" is the US Department of Justice taking over local police. Yes, that DoJ that sold weapons to the Mexican gangs leading, at least one weapon that was used in the murder of a Border Patrol agent. And it never ends. Basically an official is appointed by the Attorney General to oversee the police and he has no accountability to the city government, its citizens or the police department. Oh, these guys get paid hundreds of thousands as long as they are "serving", so as long as they are needed, they get more money. Gee, they are really motivated to end their term in office. As any reader of this blog knows, I firmly believe a bureaucracy has one reason to exist, and that is to exist.

But more to the point this is an organization in decline and disarray. It will not comeback until someone gets in, disciplins as needed, not as demanded by the people on the left, allows police to do their jobs and yes, stands up to the city's civilian superiors. Without that, a cop will simply do what is minimally required, take no risk on a possible lead and play it safe. Playing it safe doesn't accomplish much.

God help the people of Oakland.