Officer Down

Police Officer Craig Birkholz
Fond du Lac Wisconsin Police Department
End of Watch: Sunday, March 20, 2011
Age: 28
Tour of Duty: 2 years
Badge Number: 67

Officer Craig Birkholz was fatally shot after he and another officer responded to a home at approximately 6:00 am for an emergency call.

When Officer Birkholz arrived, he and the second officer approached the home. A suspect opened fire from the second floor of the home, striking Officer Birkholz, the other officer, and a K9.

The suspect committed suicide during a standoff that followed the shooting.

Officer Birkholz had served with the Fond du Lac Police Department for two years and had previously served combat tours of duty with the United States Army in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is survived by his wife.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Officer Down

Police Officer Jermaine Gibson
Cathedral City California Police Department
End of Watch: Saturday, March 19, 2011
Age: 29
Tour of Duty: 1 year, 6 months

Officer Jermaine Gibson was killed in a high-speed chase after his patrol car left the road and collided with a tree.

Officer Gibson attempted to pull over a stolen vehicle at approximately 23:30 hours and gave chase after the suspect failed to pull over. His vehicle left the road and crashed in Palm Springs at approximately 23:55 hours. The suspect vehicle also crashed, and two suspects were taken into custody.

Officer Gibson was pronounced dead at the scene shortly after midnight.

Officer Gibson had been with Cathedral City for approximately 18 months, and had been in law enforcement for approximately three years. He is survived by his wife and infant son.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

HBO wants to show The Dark Side of Cheney...

Funny...it's been over ten years since the Clinton administration left office after doing over 23k in damage to White House computers, etc on the last few days in office, not to mention the nation in general over eight years yet somehow the movie channels don't want to do a movie about that....

Now it's been about two and a half years since Bush-Cheney left office and it's open season. The latest salvo.

HBO Developing Dick Cheney Miniseries
By NELLIE ANDREEVA

EXCLUSIVE: HBO has optioned the book Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency by Pulitzer-Prize winning journalist Barton Gellman for a miniseries to be executive produced by Paula Weinstein.

The mini, which will be based on the bestselling book and the Frontline documentary The Dark Side, tells the story of Richard Bruce Cheney from his early days as Donald Rumsfeld’s protégé in the Nixon administration, to the nation's youngest Chief of Staff under President Ford, to serving as Secretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush, through two controversial terms as Vice President under President George W. Bush. According to the producers, the project will center on Cheney's "single-minded pursuit of enhanced power for the Presidency (that) was unprecedented in the nation's history."

Let me get this straight. Dick Cheney had the most "single-minded pursuit of enhanced power for the Presidency..." in history while not serving in the office...but somehow the administrations of both FDR and Lincoln are for some reason not an issue to be discussed.

Rick Cleveland (Six Feet Under), who shared a writing Emmy with Aaron Sorkin for NBC's White House drama The West Wing, is writing the mini, produced by Spring Creek Prods. and Fair Catch Prods. Spring Creek's Paula Weinstein and Jeffrey Levine, Frontline's David Fanning and Michael Kirk and Fair Catch Prods.' David Kennedy are executive producing....

So we're all on the same sheet of music. A story about a conservative icon (I think it's fair to say that about Cheney) based upon a PBS miniseries called The Dark Side and a hostile book is being written by a author of propaganda from a Clinton defense series (The Left Wing, aka The West Wing), produced by an official from one of the most openly leftist series funded by American taxpayers on a cable network that cancelled its look at JFK because it told some of the truth about the man (infidelity, drug use, etc) undern pressure from the Kennedy family.

And we're wondering why we won't get a true and full story because.....

A long weekend off….

Spent the weekend at Possum Kingdom State Park, almost two hours west of Ft Worth. Man, I’ve been looking forward to this…just a cabin (with a/c….I’m enjoying pleasures like that more as the years go on), family and friends.

Starting out on Thursday we have a child to take care of. Unfortunately the camp won’t accept pets in the cabins (but they will take them in the tent/trailer slots) Elmer has to go boarding. I don’t think he’ll mind Man’s Best Friend. He spent two weeks there for doggie boot camp. And he seems to be getting better with riding now. First time he rode in the truck and I was taking him to Man’s Best Friend for evaluation he threw up all over their paperwork…not a great start.

Having recently become a step-father I get to enjoy the time with my new family over a six hour ride in the middle of nowhere. Now the oldest Katie, who has a fantastic signing voice is talking…and talking….and talking…she wants to stop and get something to eat, not because she’s hungry but because she is bored. She is shocked, shocked that I am not inclined to stop. But I do entertain her with my sing alone to Bob Seger. I really get into Turn the Page and Roll Me Away but the fun really starts with Night Moves…and Katy gives her critic’s opinion. It’s really a classic of music here and you will get a good laugh by listening to the exchange.

I’ll be the first to admit I can’t carry a tune in a paper bag but it was really fun when Beth and Adele joined in….

After arriving we get set up and we really lucked out. The three cabins were along the lake and cabin three (the children’s cabin with the two twin beds) was right between the adults place. With a great view.

Beth and my cabin as seen from the lake





Our friends Scott, Teri and Mandy join us a little late on Thursday.

We did find this antique...an honest bear can pull tab...gotta be 20 years old

Friday we get to do …nothing. We walk around the camp, Beth and I catch up on books and the teenage girl/almost teenager girls do whatever the hell they do. But it’s great to just sit back and not have to get up. After a late wakeup, Scott and I get the fatherly pleasure of waking up the children…as we get longer in the tooth we get more easily amused. After a later breakfast and a run into the only signs of civilization (Granger TX, 34 miles away but does have a Super Wal-Mart!) out here for stuff we’d forgotten we’re back in. The girls go off on a hike and the adults…sit and drink beer and wine. Catch up on the adventures at work, fix a late lunch for the exhausted kids (that unfortunately didn’t last long) and keep drinking and talking.

Followed by a later dinner (hamburgers on Friday during Lent…oh well, I guess we go to Hell when this is all finished…), followed by more talking, more non-musical singing concurrent with more beer and wine, cigars and more talking and we die out about 1100PM.

Saturday is a bit of a disappointment. They will not rent canoes or boats because the wind is too high but we (the adults) go on a hike with the children. This is not exactly Rockies but for flatlanders like us it’s an adventure. Going around we meet a nice family who are good enough to take a picture of the group. After an hour to go a little over a mile we return to a late lunch, more beer and wine and another round of talk.

Scott let me help you up...Teri how much he worth dead?

Beth and Adele with me behind them.  Scott behind me, Mandy to his right and Teri next to Mandy.

No Teri don't jump!

A man secure in his sexuality

Saturday was Beth’s 44th birthday and fortunately she now has an adult someone to insure she has a great one. Thank you Teri for all your help because God knows this Alzheimer's is kicking my ass early. Teri texted me last week “Mike you get a cake…I’ll get one…” She also got the balloons and other trinkets. Now one thing was really touching. Beth is using prescriptions to kick her smoking habit and Teri and Scott want to make sure she doesn’t change one habit (cigarettes) for another (alcohol). So they have a great new glass for Beth and told her she has to limit herself to one glass a day!

Sunday started off a bit slower than we had hoped. Scott contracted a bug (we think the flu) and he needed to sleep a bit later than we planned. So we being the concerned friends bought him some drugs…antihistamine for Scott’s bug and Midol because Scott is Scott…hey, he’d do it for me.

After a late departure and later breakfast at Waffle House (Not the one run by Speaker Boehner but the original with real good and greasy food) we continue on, hoping to find home…we need to get home. I can only take so much of Katy and Adele screaming and Beth is ready to go postal…and unfortunately the only weapon here is my off duty piece and I don’t want to write that letter.

A great weekend….we will come back at some time.

Officer Down

Police Officer Andrew Dunn
Sandusky Ohio Police Department
End of Watch: Saturday, March 19, 2011
Age: 30
Tour of Duty: 3 years

Police Officer Andy Dunn was shot and killed while attempting to question a suspect.

He was on patrol when he attempted to stop and question a male riding a bicycle. As he approached, the suspect opened fire. Officer Dunn was killed and the suspect was wounded in the ensuing gun battle.

Officer Dunn had served with the Sandusky Police Department for three years. He is survived by his wife and two children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

The Libyan War of 2011 March 19, 2011 | 2333 GMT

 

The Libyan war has now begun. It pits a coalition of European powers plus the United States, a handful of Arab states and rebels in Libya against the Libyan government. The long-term goal, unspoken but well understood, is regime change — displacing the government of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and replacing it with a new regime built around the rebels.

The mission is clearer than the strategy, and that strategy can’t be figured out from the first moves. The strategy might be the imposition of a no-fly zone, the imposition of a no-fly zone and attacks against Libya’s command-and-control centers, or these two plus direct ground attacks on Gadhafi’s forces. These could also be combined with an invasion and occupation of Libya.

The question, therefore, is not the mission but the strategy to be pursued. How far is the coalition, or at least some of its members, prepared to go to effect regime change and manage the consequences following regime change? How many resources are they prepared to provide and how long are they prepared to fight? It should be remembered that in Iraq and Afghanistan the occupation became the heart of the war, and regime change was merely the opening act. It is possible that the coalition partners haven’t decided on the strategy yet, or may not be in agreement. Let’s therefore consider the first phases of the war, regardless of how far they are prepared to go in pursuit of the mission.

Like previous wars since 1991, this war began with a very public buildup in which the coalition partners negotiated the basic framework, sought international support and authorization from multinational organizations and mobilized forces. This was done quite publicly because the cost of secrecy (time and possible failure) was not worth what was to be gained: surprise. Surprise matters when the enemy can mobilize resistance. Gadhafi was trapped and has limited military capabilities, so secrecy was unnecessary.

While all this was going on and before final decisions were made, special operations forces were inserted in Libya on two missions. First, to make contact with insurgent forces to prepare them for coming events, create channels of communications and logistics and create a post-war political framework. The second purpose was to identify targets for attack and conduct reconnaissance of those targets that provided as up-to-date information as possible. This, combined with air and space reconnaissance, served as the foundations of the war. We know British SAS operators were in Libya and suspect other countries’ special operations forces and intelligence services were also operating there.

War commences with two sets of attacks. The first attacks are decapitation attacks designed to destroy or isolate the national command structure. These may also include strikes designed to kill leaders such as Gadhafi and his sons or other senior leaders. These attacks depend on specific intelligence on facilities, including communications, planning and so on along with detailed information on the location of the leadership. Attacks on buildings are carried out from the air but not particularly with cruise missile because they are especially accurate if the targets are slow, and buildings aren’t going anywhere. At the same time, aircraft are orbiting out of range of air defenses awaiting information on more mobile targets and if such is forthcoming, they come into range and fire appropriate munitions at the target. The type of aircraft used depends on the robustness of the air defenses, the time available prior to attack and the munitions needed. They can range from conventional fighters or stealth strategic aircraft like the U.S. B-2 bomber (if the United States authorized its use). Special operations forces might be on the ground painting the target for laser-guided munitions, which are highly accurate but require illumination.

(click here to enlarge image)
At the same time these attacks are under way, attacks on airfields, fuel storage depots and the like are being targeted to ground the Libyan air force. Air or cruise missile attacks are also being carried out on radars of large and immobile surface-to-air (SAM) missile sites. Simultaneously, “wild weasel” aircraft — aircraft configured for the suppression of enemy air defenses — will be on patrol for more mobile SAM systems to locate and destroy. This becomes a critical part of the conflict. Being mobile, detecting these weapons systems on the ground is complex. They engage when they want to, depending on visual perception of opportunities. Therefore the total elimination of anti-missile systems is in part up to the Libyans. Between mobile systems and man-portable air-defense missiles, the threat to allied aircraft can persist for quite a while even if Gadhafi’s forces might have difficulty shooting anything down.

This is the part that the United States in particular and the West in general is extremely good at. But it is the beginning of the war. Gadhafi’s primary capabilities are conventional armor and particularly artillery. Destroying his air force and isolating his forces will not by itself win the war. The war is on the ground. The question is the motivation of his troops: If they perceive that surrender is unacceptable or personally catastrophic, they may continue to fight. At that point the coalition must decide if it intends to engage and destroy Gadhafi’s ground forces from the air. This can be done, but it is never a foregone conclusion that it will work. Moreover, this is the phase at which civilian casualties begin to mount. It is a paradox of warfare instigated to end human suffering that the means of achieving this can sometimes impose substantial human suffering itself. This is not merely a theoretical statement. It is at this point at which supporters of the war who want to end suffering may turn on the political leaders for not ending suffering without cost. It should be remembered that Saddam Hussein was loathed universally but those who loathed him were frequently not willing to impose the price of overthrowing him. The Europeans in particular are sensitive to this issue.

The question then becomes the extent to which this remains an air operation, as Kosovo was, or becomes a ground operation. Kosovo is the ideal, but Gadhafi is not Slobodan Milosevic and he may not feel he has anywhere to go if he surrenders. For him the fight may be existential, whereas for Milosevic it was not. He and his followers may resist. This is the great unknown. The choice here is to maintain air operations for an extended period of time without clear results, or invade. This raises the question of whose troops would invade. Egypt appears ready but there is long animosity between the two countries, and its actions might not be viewed as liberation. The Europeans could do so. It is difficult to imagine Obama adopting a third war in Muslim world as his own. This is where the coalition is really tested.

If there is an invasion, it is likely to succeed. The question then becomes whether Gadhafi’s forces move into opposition and insurgency. This again depends on morale but also on behavior. The Americans forced an insurgency in Iraq by putting the Baathists into an untenable position. In Afghanistan the Taliban gave up formal power without having been decisively defeated. They regrouped, reformed and returned. It is not known to us what Gadhafi can do or not do. It is clear that it is the major unknown.

The problem in Iraq was not the special operations forces. It was not in the decapitation strikes or suppression of enemy air defenses. It was not in the defeat of the Iraqi army on the ground. It was in the occupation, when the enemy reformed and imposed an insurgency on the United States that it found extraordinarily difficult to deal with.

Therefore the successes of the coming day will tell us nothing. Even if Gadhafi surrenders or is killed, even if no invasion is necessary save a small occupation force to aid the insurgents, the possibility of an insurgency is there. We will not know if there will be an insurgency until after it begins. Therefore, the only thing that would be surprising about this phase of the operation is if it failed.

The decision has been made that the mission is regime change in Libya. The strategic sequence is the routine buildup to war since 1991, this time with a heavier European component. The early days will go extremely well but will not define whether or not the war is successful. The test will come if a war designed to stop human suffering begins to inflict human suffering. That is when the difficult political decisions have to be made and when we will find out whether the strategy, the mission and the political will fully match up.

Copyright: STRATFOR.COM

Limited blogging this weekend

At Possum Kingdom State Park for the weekend....report pending!

What's going on in the World Today 110316

HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:

USA
Dispatch: Pakistan Releases CIA Contractor | STRATFOR

U.S.: National Guard Troops To Leave Mexico Border As Scheduled March 16, 2011

National Guard troops that have helped increase security along the southwestern border since the summer of 2010 will leave as planned by the second week of June, the commander of the Arizona Guard told a House panel March 15, USA Today reported March 16. Maj. Gen. Hugo Salazar, adjutant general of the Guard in the state, said the mission has gone well. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer said March 15 that she was disappointed that the deployment was ending on schedule.

EUROPE
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ASIA
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

RUSSIA
Russia: S-300V4 Air Defense Systems To Arrive 2011 March 15, 2011

The Russian army will receive the modernized S-300V4 air defense systems in 2011, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Sergei Vlasov said, adding the S-300V4’s new tactical-technical characteristics exceed the previous S-300V3 model by 1.5-2.3 times, Interfax reported March 15. Vlasov said the S-300V4 are capable of hitting aerodynamic targets and medium-range operational-tactical and ballistic missiles at distance of around 1,500 miles.


IRAN
Iran: No Protests Amid Heavy Security March 15, 2011

Anti-government protests in Tehran on March 15 failed to materialize due to a heavy security presence, DPA reported. The call to protests, initiated by the Green Wave movement, was aimed at securing the release of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. A large number of police and other security forces were deployed throughout Tehran, which the opposition characterized as “unofficial martial law.” Police banned motorcycles from the streets of Tehran, and none of the opposition websites posted reports about the protests. The opposition instead said a special ceremony would be held March 17 to commemorate those killed since the protests began.

IRAQ
Iraq: Al-Sadr Supporters Rally In Support Of Bahraini People March 16, 2011

Supporters of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr demonstrated March 16 in various parts of Iraq in support of Bahraini Shiite protesters, Middle East Online reported. About 2,000 gathered in Sadr City in eastern Baghdad carrying Bahraini and Iraqi flags and banners reading, “Bahrain is free, free, oppressor, get out.” Two hundred demonstrators from the al-Sadr Trend marched in An Najaf, south of Baghdad, condemning violence against unarmed Bahrainis. About 500 al-Sadr supporters marched from the Tamimiya area of Basra carrying Iraqi flags and pictures of al-Sadr and his father. Tens of protesters rallied in Ad Diwaniyah, near An Najaf, in support of the Bahraini people, Alsumaria reported.

ISRAEL
Israel: Seized Weapons Are From Iran - PM March 15, 2011

Weapons seized from a Gaza-bound ship by the Israeli navy early March 15 were from Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, Haaretz reported. Authorities are collecting information, but the one certainty is that the weapons are from Iran by way of Syria, Netanyahu said.

Israel: Captured Ship Had Missiles, Radar On Board March 15, 2011

At least four surface-to-sea missiles with a range of 35 kilometers (21.7 miles) were found on board the Victoria, a ship that was intercepted March 15 by the Israel Defense Forces, Ynet reported. The ship also carried a radar system capable of recognizing ships before they can launch shore-to-sea missiles.

AFGHANISTAN
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MIDDLE EAST
Libya: Government Warships Off The Coast Of Misurata March 16, 2011

Libyan warships have taken position near the port of Misurata, Al Jazeera reported March 16. The ships are reportedly preparing for a military strike on — and naval landing in — the city.


Saudi Arabia: Shiite Protesters Support Bahraini Shia March 16, 2011

About 300 Saudi Shiite protesters on March 16 took to the streets in the eastern city of Qatif, demonstrating against the violence against the Bahraini Shia, AFP reported, citing an unnamed witness. The witness said that the protesters were carrying Bahraini flags and that there was a heavy police presence, with helicopters flying overhead. Similar protests took place in Saihat, Tarut, Safwa and al-Awamiya, where police fired shots into the air in an attempt to disperse demonstrators, the witness said.

Libya: 2 Major Tribes Support Gadhafi March 16, 2011

Tarhuna and Warfalla, two major tribes in Benghazi, have confirmed their support for Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Al Jazeera reported March 16, citing Libyan state television.

History Repeats Itself in Eastern Arabia | STRATFOR

SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Mexico: U.S. UAVs Gather Cartel Intelligence March 16, 2011

In February 2011, the United States began sending high-altitude unarmed Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deep into Mexican territory to gather intelligence on major drug traffickers and their networks and the information was turned over to Mexican law enforcement agencies, according to American and Mexican officials, The New York Times reported March 16. U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon formally agreed to the UAV surveillance flights March 3, as the flights had previously been kept secret due to Mexican legal restrictions and political sensitivities about sovereignty. Obama administration officials said a U.S. Homeland Security UAV helped Mexican authorities locate several suspects linked to the Feb. 15 killing of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agent Jaime Zapata. Obama and Calderon agreed to open a counternarcotics “fusion” center to facilitate coordination between U.S. and Mexican law enforcement agencies


Mexico: U.S. UAV Operations Under Mexican ControlMarch 16, 2011

The Mexican government is under control of U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations to fly over Mexico to gather intelligence on drug traffickers, AP reported March 16, citing a Mexican National Security Council statement. The UAVs have flown at the request of the Mexican government, and have mainly been done along the U.S.-Mexico border, the statement said. The operations are being done with the authorization, oversight and supervision of Mexican national agencies, including the Mexican air force, the statement said, adding that Mexico defines the objectives, the information to be gathered and the tasks for which the UAVs will be used

MISC
Above the Tearline: Emergency Evacuation Plans | STRATFOR

Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com

Officer Down

Police Officer Stephanie Brown
San Antonio Texas Police Department
End of Watch: Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Age: 27
Tour of Duty: 3 years

Officer Stephanie Brown was killed in an early morning crash while en route to a call.

As she responded to the call a man driving the wrong way on I-35 struck her patrol car head-on. She was transported to
University Hospital where she succumbed to her injuries. The driver of the other vehicle died at the scene.

Officer Brown had served with the San Antonio Police Department for three years. She is survived by her 7-month-old daughter and her father, also a San Antonio police officer.

Rest in Peace Sis…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Springfield mayor wants money from Obama....but he's not so generous with his money!

It seems like B Hussein Obama owes a Democrat some money.

It's a little curious...he wants "money out of politics" but he's vowed to raise a billion for his reelection.

Hey BO, if you can shake down the left and business down for 10 digits, you should be able to write a check for this.

Springfield, Ill., mayor wants $55,457 for Obama visit

This time, Springfield Mayor Frank Edwards is going straight to the top.

Edwards has written President Barack Obama seeking the balance of the bill the city ran up for police when the then-candidate visited in 2008 to announce his running mate.

The (Springfield) State Journal-Register reports that the city submitted a bill for $68,139. It's still owed $55,457.

The interim mayor says there appears to be confusion about whether the Secret Service or the White House owes the money.

Edwards wrote that "sometimes only the executive himself can cut through such inter-departmental differences of opinion."

He says he's not trying to embarrass anyone, but times are tight.

Obama visited the Old State Capitol in August 2008 to announce Joe Biden as his running mate.

Geopolitical Weekly Japan, the Persian Gulf and Energy March 15, 2011

By George Friedman

Over the past week, everything seemed to converge on energy. The unrest in the Persian Gulf raised the specter of the disruption of oil supplies to the rest of the world, and an earthquake in Japan knocked out a string of nuclear reactors with potentially devastating effect. Japan depends on nuclear energy and it depends on the Persian Gulf, which is where it gets most of its oil. It was, therefore, a profoundly bad week for Japan, not only because of the extensive damage and human suffering but also because Japan was being shown that it can’t readily escape the realities of geography.

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, a bit behind China now. It is also the third-largest industrial economy, behind only the United States and China. Japan’s problem is that its enormous industrial plant is built in a country almost totally devoid of mineral resources. It must import virtually all of the metals and energy that it uses to manufacture industrial products. It maintains stockpiles, but should those stockpiles be depleted and no new imports arrive, Japan stops being an industrial power.

The Geography of Oil

There are multiple sources for many of the metals Japan imports, so that if supplies stop flowing from one place it can get them from other places. The geography of oil is more limited. In order to access the amount of oil Japan needs, the only place to get it is the Persian Gulf. There are other places to get some of what Japan needs, but it cannot do without the Persian Gulf for its oil.

This past week, we saw that this was a potentially vulnerable source. The unrest that swept the western littoral of the Arabian Peninsula and the ongoing tension between the Saudis and Iranians, as well as the tension between Iran and the United States, raised the possibility of disruptions. The geography of the Persian Gulf is extraordinary. It is a narrow body of water opening into a narrow channel through the Strait of Hormuz. Any diminution of the flow from any source in the region, let alone the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would have profound implications for the global economy.

For Japan it could mean more than higher prices. It could mean being unable to secure the amount of oil needed at any price. The movement of tankers, the limits on port facilities and long-term contracts that commit oil to other places could make it impossible for Japan to physically secure the oil it needs to run its industrial plant. On an extended basis, this would draw down reserves and constrain Japan’s economy dramatically. And, obviously, when the world’s third-largest industrial plant drastically slows, the impact on the global supply chain is both dramatic and complex.

In 1973, the Arab countries imposed an oil embargo on the world. Japan, entirely dependent on imported oil, was hit not only by high prices but also by the fact that it could not obtain enough fuel to keep going. While the embargo lasted only five months, the oil shock, as the Japanese called it, threatened Japan’s industrial capability and shocked it into remembering its vulnerability. Japan relied on the United States to guarantee its oil supplies. The realization that the United States couldn’t guarantee those supplies created a political crisis parallel to the economic one. It is one reason the Japanese are hypersensitive to events in the Persian Gulf and to the security of the supply lines running out of the region.

Regardless of other supplies, Japan will always import nearly 100 percent of its oil from other countries. If it cuts its consumption by 90 percent, it still imports nearly 100 percent of its oil. And to the extent that the Japanese economy requires oil — which it does — it is highly vulnerable to events in the Persian Gulf.

It is to mitigate the risk of oil dependency — which cannot be eliminated altogether by any means — that Japan employs two alternative fuels: It is the world’s largest importer of seaborne coal, and it has become the third-largest producer of electricity from nuclear reactors, ranking after the United States and France in total amount produced. One-third of its electricity production comes from nuclear power plants. Nuclear power was critical to both Japan’s industrial and national security strategy. It did not make Japan self-sufficient, since it needed to import coal and nuclear fuel, but access to these resources made it dependent on countries like Australia, which does not have choke points like Hormuz.

It is in this context that we need to understand the Japanese prime minister’s statement that Japan was facing its worst crisis since World War II. First, the earthquake and the resulting damage to several of Japan’s nuclear reactors created a long-term regional energy shortage in Japan that, along with the other damage caused by the earthquake, would certainly affect the economy. But the events in the Persian Gulf also raised the 1973 nightmare scenario for the Japanese. Depending how events evolved, the Japanese pipeline from the Persian Gulf could be threatened in a way that it had not been since 1973. Combined with the failure of several nuclear reactors, the Japanese economy is at risk.

The comparison with World War II was apt since it also began, in a way, with an energy crisis. The Japanese had invaded China, and after the fall of the Netherlands (which controlled today’s Indonesia) and France (which controlled Indochina), Japan was concerned about agreements with France and the Netherlands continuing to be honored. Indochina supplied Japan with tin and rubber, among other raw materials. The Netherlands East Indies supplied oil. When the Japanese invaded Indochina, the United States both cut off oil shipments from the United States and started buying up oil from the Netherlands East Indies to keep Japan from getting it. The Japanese were faced with the collapse of their economy or war with the United States. They chose Pearl Harbor.

Today’s situation is in no way comparable to what happened in 1941 except for the core geopolitical reality. Japan is dependent on imports of raw materials and particularly oil. Anything that interferes with the flow of oil creates a crisis in Japan. Anything that risks a cutoff makes Japan uneasy. Add an earthquake destroying part of its energy-producing plant and you force Japan into a profound internal crisis. However, it is essential to understand what energy has meant to Japan historically — miscalculation about it led to national disaster and access to it remains Japan’s psychological as well as physical pivot.

Japan’s Nuclear Safety Net

Japan is still struggling with the consequences of its economic meltdown in the early 1990s. Rapid growth with low rates of return on capital created a massive financial crisis. Rather than allow a recession to force a wave of bankruptcies and unemployment, the Japanese sought to maintain their tradition of lifetime employment. To do that Japan had to keep interest rates extremely low and accept little or no economic growth. It achieved its goal, relatively low unemployment, but at the cost of a large debt burden and a long-term sluggish economy.

The Japanese were beginning to struggle with the question of what would come after a generation of economic stagnation and full employment. They had clearly not yet defined a path, although there was some recognition that a generation’s economic reality could not sustain itself. The changes that Japan would face were going to be wrenching, and even under the best of circumstances, they would be politically difficult to manage. Suddenly, Japan is not facing the best of circumstances.

It is not yet clear how devastating the nuclear-reactor damage will prove to be, but the situation appears to be worsening. What is clear is that the potential crisis in the Persian Gulf, the loss of nuclear reactors and the rising radiation levels will undermine the confidence of the Japanese. Beyond the human toll, these reactors were Japan’s hedge against an unpredictable world. They gave it control of a substantial amount of its energy production. Even if the Japanese still had to import coal and oil, there at least a part of their energy structure was largely under their own control and secure. Japan’s nuclear power sector seemed invulnerable, which no other part of its energy infrastructure was. For Japan, a country that went to war with the United States over energy in 1941 and was devastated as a result, this was no small thing. Japan had a safety net.

The safety net was psychological as much as anything. The destruction of a series of nuclear reactors not only creates energy shortages and fear of radiation; it also drives home the profound and very real vulnerability underlying all of Japan’s success. Japan does not control the source of its oil, it does not control the sea lanes over which coal and other minerals travel, and it cannot be certain that its nuclear reactors will not suddenly be destroyed. To the extent that economics and politics are psychological, this is a huge blow. Japan lives in constant danger, both from nature and from geopolitics. What the earthquake drove home was just how profound and how dangerous Japan’s world is. It is difficult to imagine another industrial economy as inherently insecure as Japan’s. The earthquake will impose many economic constraints on Japan that will significantly complicate its emergence from its post-boom economy, but one important question is the impact on the political system. Since World War II, Japan has coped with its vulnerability by avoiding international entanglements and relying on its relationship with the United States. It sometimes wondered whether the United States, with its sometimes-unpredictable military operations, was more of a danger than a guarantor, but its policy remained intact.

It is not the loss of the reactors that will shake Japan the most but the loss of the certainty that the reactors were their path to some degree of safety, along with the added burden on the economy. The question is how the political system will respond. In dealing with the Persian Gulf, will Japan continue to follow the American lead or will it decide to take a greater degree of control and follow its own path? The likelihood is that a shaken self-confidence will make Japan more cautious and even more vulnerable. But it is interesting to look at Japanese history and realize that sometimes, and not always predictably, Japan takes insecurity as a goad to self-assertion.

This was no ordinary earthquake in magnitude or in the potential impact on Japan’s view of the world. The earthquake shook a lot of pieces loose, not the least of which were in the Japanese psyche. Japan has tried to convince itself that it had provided a measure of security with nuclear plants and an alliance with the United States. Given the earthquake and situation in the Persian Gulf, recalculation is in order. But Japan is a country that has avoided recalculation for a long time. The question now is whether the extraordinary vulnerability exposed by the quake will be powerful enough to shake Japan into recalculating its long-standing political system.

Japan, the Persian Gulf and Energy is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

Geopolitical Weekly: Will Libya Again Become the Arsenal of Terrorism? March 10, 2011

Man-Portable Air Defense Systems: A Persistent and Potent Threat
By Scott Stewart

During the 1970s and 1980s, Libya served as the arsenal of terrorism. While this role may have received the most publicity when large shipments of weapons were intercepted that Libya was trying to send to the Provisional Irish Republican Army, Libyan involvement in arming terrorist groups was far more widespread. Traces conducted on the weapons used in terrorist attacks by groups such as the Abu Nidal Organization frequently showed that the weapons had come from Libya. In fact, there were specific lot numbers of Soviet-manufactured F1 hand grenades that became widely known in the counterterrorism community as signature items tied to Libyan support of terrorist groups.

As we have discussed, the conflict in Libya could provide jihadists in Libya more room to operate than they have enjoyed for many years. This operational freedom for the jihadists might have an impact not only in Libya but also in the broader region, and one significant way this impact could manifest itself is in the supply of arms. The looting of the arms depots in Libya is reminiscent of the looting in Iraq following the U.S. invasion in 2003. There are also reports that foreign governments are discussing providing arms to the Libyan rebels in the eastern part of the country. While it is far from clear if any of those discussions are serious or whether any potential patron would ever follow through, past operations to arm rebels have had long-lasting repercussions in places like Afghanistan and Central America.

In light of these developments, a tactical discussion of the various classes of weapons contained in Libyan supply depots and how they could be utilized by insurgents and terrorists is in order.


The Nature of Weapons

First of all, it is important to realize that weapons are durable and fungible goods that are easily converted to cash. By durable, we mean that while certain types of weapons and weapon components have a limited shelf life — such as battery-coolant units for the FIM-92A Stinger missile — many other weapons remain functional for many decades. It is not unusual to find a militant or a soldier carrying an AK-47 that was manufactured before he was born — and in many cases even before his father was born. Weapons provided to the anti-Soviet fighters in Afghanistan in the 1980s are still being used against coalition troops in Afghanistan and weapons provided by the United States and the Soviet Union to rebels and governments during Central America’s civil wars are still making their way into the arsenals of the Mexican drug cartels. Weapons are fungible in the sense that an AK-47-style rifle manufactured in Russia is essentially the same as one manufactured in China or Egypt, and an M16 manufactured in Israel can easily replace an M16 manufactured in the United States.

One good illustration of the durable and fungible nature of weapons is the fact that some of the weapons seized by the North Vietnamese following the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Vietnam were traded to Cuba in the 1970s and 1980s in exchange for sugar. The Cubans then provided these weapons to Marxist militant groups in Central and South America. These weapons originally shipped to U.S. forces in Vietnam were then used by insurgents in Latin American civil wars and some of them were even used in terrorist attacks in the 1980s in places such as Chile, El Salvador and Guatemala. More recently, some of these Vietnam-era weapons have made their way from South and Central America to Mexico, where they have been used by the drug cartels. Another example are the Lee-Enfield rifles manufactured in the early 1900s that can still be found in arms markets in places like Yemen and Pakistan. These antiques are still being used by militants in many parts of the world, including Afghanistan, where they have proved to be more effective in longer-range engagements typical of the theater than the newer and more common AK-47s.

The arms depots in Libya have been looted by a number of different actors ranging in motivation from anti-Gadhafi freedom fighters to jihadists to outright thieves and thugs. While the weapons are now being used mostly to fight Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s remaining forces, they could later be diverted to other uses. Arms, ammunition and explosives looted from Libyan arms depots today will likely be serviceable for decades, and the thriving transnational black arms market will provide a mechanism for groups and individuals to sell looted weapons or those received from foreign governments. The bottom line is that weapons from Libya will be available on the black arms market for many years to come.


Types of Weapons

So far, the media discussion of Libyan weapons has focused on two classes of weapons: Libya’s chemical weapons stockpiles and its “man-portable air defense systems,” or MANPADS. These are important to consider in evaluating the threats posed by an uncontrolled military arsenal in Libya, but before discussing these weapons it is worthwhile to look at many other types of weapons that could prove useful to insurgents and terrorists.

One category is small arms, which includes rifles, hand grenades and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). A large number of weapons in this class have been looted from arms depots in Libya and widely distributed to rebel fighters. As noted above, such weapons tend to be highly durable and can remain functional for decades. From a militant perspective, such weapons are useful not only in irregular warfare operations but also in armed robberies and kidnappings that are conducted to raise funds for the group. From a terrorism perspective, small arms are useful for assassinations and armed assaults.

Yet another category of munitions of interest to militants is military-grade explosives. Militants in many parts of the world have learned to manufacture improvised explosive mixtures, but such compounds are simply not as compact, stable, reliable or potent as military-grade explosives. Because of this, military-grade explosives have an obvious application for terrorist attacks and are highly sought after on the black arms market.

Still another class is heavier, crew-served weapons, such as heavy machine guns, automatic grenade launchers, recoilless rifles and mortars. Such weapons systems are powerful on the battlefield and can be very useful for insurgents if properly employed, although they are difficult to conceal and transport. Crew-served weapons also use heavier ammunition than small arms and in some cases rapidly consume ammunition, so employing them can also present a significant logistical strain. Because of these factors, they are somewhat difficult to use for terrorist applications. Mortars have been heavily used by insurgents in Iraq, and to a lesser extent by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, but these groups have not demonstrated the ability to adjust their mortar fire to effectively engage targets.

Perhaps the biggest worry right now in terms of Libya’s uncontrolled military arsenal is the looting of MANPADS, which is quite possibly the biggest blow to worldwide MANPADS counterproliferation efforts since Iraq in 2003. Historically, MANPADS have been very appealing to insurgents and terrorists. Libya is estimated to have at least 400 SA-7 Grail (9K32 Strela-2) surface-to-air missiles in its military inventory. With Libya’s largest perceived regional air threat coming from Egypt, it is likely that a substantial portion of its MANPADS stocks were positioned in the eastern part of the country when the current civil war started. We have seen open-source photos of Libyan rebels carrying SA-7 missiles (not always with gripstocks), and one photo even depicted a rebel launching an SA-7 at a pro-Gadhafi warplane. While the airstrikes by pro-Gadhafi aircraft have been largely ineffective, the attention these attacks have been receiving in the press could lead some countries to supply additional, and perhaps even more advanced, MANPADS to the Libyan rebels.

As noted in STRATFOR’s previous coverage of MANPADS, at least 30 civilian aircraft have been brought down and approximately 920 civilians killed by MANPADS attacks since 1973. These attacks brought about the concerted international effort to remove these weapons from the black and gray arms markets. While MANPADS attacks against civilian aircraft have declined in the last decade, sting operations and seizures of illicit arms shipments clearly demonstrate that militant groups continue to work hard to get their hands on the weapons. This means that any MANPADS not used against pro-Gadhafi aircraft in the current conflict will be sought out by militant groups in the region and by arms dealers, who will seek to sell them elsewhere for a profit.

The next class of military ordnance to consider — and this is where the chemical threat comes in — is artillery ammunition. A recent video of Libyan arms depots shows that most of the small arms and smaller crew-served weapons have been taken and what is left behind are large stockpiles of artillery ammunition. In Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgents have been able to use artillery rockets to attack large targets like military bases or the Green Zone in Baghdad. This fire does not amount to much more than harassment, since the insurgents do not have the skill to deliver the accurate, massed fire required to use such weapons in a militarily effective manner.

That said, artillery ammunition is filled with military-grade high explosives, and militants in places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Algeria have been able to remove the explosive filler from artillery shells, artillery rockets and mortar rounds in order to use it in improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Militants in Iraq also became quite proficient in using artillery rounds (sometimes several of them chained together) as the main charges in roadside IEDs and vehicle-borne IEDS. A 152 mm howitzer shell contains approximately 13 pounds of a high explosive such as TNT or composition B. The explosive fillers used in these rounds are very hardy and include stabilizers that give them virtually unlimited shelf life. Untold thousands of neglected artillery projectiles could very well be the most under-appreciated threat in the Libyan arms depots.

And one type of artillery ammunition that has been getting quite a bit of press is artillery ammunition capable of delivering chemical agents. Libya has admitted to producing tons of mustard gas, and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is currently in the process of overseeing the destruction of Libya’s mustard-gas stockpile (a process no doubt disrupted by the current civil war). There is concern that if Gadhafi gets desperate, he could use mustard gas or some other chemical munitions he had not declared. However, while mustard gas can be deadly if used in high concentrations, it is very difficult to use in a militarily effective manner, which requires a heavy concentration of chemical munitions fire. In World War I, fewer than 5 percent of the troops exposed to mustard gas died. As far as terrorist application, as evidenced by the many chemical attacks conducted by Aum Shinrikyo in Tokyo and the few chemical shells employed in IED attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq, it is also very difficult to effectively employ chemical weapons in a terrorist attack.

In Libya, as a result of the current strife, literally tons of weapons have recently entered into free circulation where there is little or no government control over them. If foreign powers decide to arm the Libyan rebels, more large shipments of arms may soon follow. Given the durable and fungible nature of arms, these weapons could have an impact on the region for many years to come, and Libya could once again become the arsenal of terrorism.

In the past, this role was an intentional policy of the Gadhafi regime, and it was possible to direct international policy against the regime to curtail such activity. In the near future there may not be a stable government with control over all of Libya. The weapons that have been looted from Libyan arms depots have been taken by a number of different actors, and the weapons will almost certainly proceed from Libya via a number of divergent channels. Because of this, controlling these arms may pose an even more difficult challenge than the arms intentionally proliferated by the Gadhafi regime.

Will Libya Again Become the Arsenal of Terrorism? is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

Officer Down

Deputy Sheriff Cameron Neil Justus
Buchanan County Virginia Sheriff's Office
End of Watch: Sunday, March 13, 2011
Age: 41
Tour of Duty: 10 years

Deputy Sheriff William Ezra Stiltner
Buchanan County Virginia Sheriff's Office
End of Watch: Sunday, March 13, 2011
Age: 46
Tour of Duty: 7 years


Deputy Sheriff Cameron Justus and Deputy Sheriff William Stiltner were shot and killed after responding to assist other deputies who had been fired at by a sniper at the scene of a larceny in progress call.

Two deputies from the Buchanan County Sheriff's Office responded to a call of a larceny in progress at a car service business in Vansant. They arrived they began to search for the larceny suspect when they were shot at from a distance by a suspect with a rifle. Both deputies were able to radio for assistance and crawl to a nearby home to take cover from the sniper.

Deputy Stiltner and Deputy Justus, along with members of the Virginia State Police responded to assist. As a perimeter was established to contain and search for the shooter, Deputy Justus and William Stiltner were shot and killed by a high-powered rifle.

The suspect fled from a nearby ridge where he had fired into the woods. He was located standing in front of a nearby house talking on a mobile phone. The suspect was shot and killed after he refused orders to get on the ground and then drew a handgun on officers.

Deputy Justus had served with the Buchanan County Sheriff's Office for 10 years. Deputy Stiltner had served with the Buchanan County Sheriff's Office for seven years.

Rest in Peace Gentlemen…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

What's going on in the World Today 110314

HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:

USA
U.S.: National Security Adviser Downplays Libya Intelligence Assessment March 10, 2011

U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon played down the intelligence assessment of Libya that said Moammar Gadhafi’s forces would be better equipped than the rebel forces in a prolonged conflict, DPA reported March 10. Donilon said the assessment was one-dimensional and did not account for the international pressure affecting Gadhafi or the aid that the rebel forces could receive. Donilon said the analysis was based on Gadhafi’s military capabilities and did not account for dynamics that include the movement for change happening throughout the Middle East. There is an international arms embargo on Gadhafi that could limit his ability to fight and growing support for the opposition rebels, Donilon added.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 9, 2011 STRATFOR

EUROPE
Developments in Renault's Espionage Scandal STRATFOR

ASIA
Pakistan: Cabinet Approves Talks To Buy 6 Submarines March 14, 2011

The Pakistani Cabinet gave the Defense Ministry permission to begin talks on the purchase of six submarines from China, Associated Press of Pakistan reported March 14.

China Political Memo: March 11, 2011 STRATFOR

RUSSIA
France: Russia To Buy 500 Combat Vehicles March 11, 2011

Russia and French military manufacturer Panhard are negotiating a $260 million purchase of 500 3.1 ton Vehicule Blinde Leger light armored vehicles on a 4x4 wheel platform for the Russian Federal Security Service border guards, according Panhard Chairman Christian Mons as stated on Russian arms trade watchdog Center for the Analysis of the World Arms Trade’s website, RIA Novosti reported March 11.

IRANIran: Paramilitary Group Launches Cyber Attacks March 14, 2011

Hackers working for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ paramilitary Basij group reportedly launched cyber attacks on the websites of Iran’s “enemies,” according to a state-owned Iranian newspaper, AP reported March 14. Basij acting commander Gen. Ali Fazli said Iran’s cyber army is made up of university teachers, students and clerics

Iran: Nuclear Services And Materials To Enter World Market - Official March 13, 2011

Iran will enter the world market in the export of nuclear materials and services, Fereydun Abbasi, head of Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, said at the second National Resistance and Passive Defense Festival, adding, Iran plans to merchandize its nuclear material and services to other countries, IRNA reported March 13. Cooperation can be used as a deterrent, Abbasi said.

IRAQ
Iraq: U.S. Troop, Base Numbers March 14, 2011

The U.S. military has 47,000 troops on a total of 74 bases throughout Iraq, a U.S. Army spokesman said, AK News reported March 14.

Syria: Weapons Smuggled From Iraq Uncovered March 11, 2011

Syrian authorities discovered a large quantity of heavy, medium and light caliber weapons, bombs and night vision binoculars in a truck coming from Iraq through the al-Tanaf crossing point on March 7, SANA reported March 11. The Iraqi driver admitted that the truck’s owner had loaded the weapons in Baghdad and asked him to transport them to Syria in order to give them to someone in return for $5,000. The weapons are meant to destabilize internal security in Syria.

ISRAEL
Israel: Settlers, Palestinians ClashMarch 12, 2011

Israeli settlers in the West Bank’s Gush Etzion Region clashed with Palestinians in connection with the recent attack and deaths of five family members from Itamar, Ynet reported March 12. Dozens of settlers blocked a road and threw stones at Palestinians. Police and Israel Defense Force officials detained some settlers for questioning. The settlers came from the Beit Ayin settlement, local Palestinians stated, adding police threw tear gas grenades.

Israel: PM, Committee Approves New Housing Constriction In West Bank March 13, 2011

Israel will build several hundred homes for settlers in the Etzion bloc of settlements, Maale Adumim, Ariel and Kiryat Sefer in the West Bank after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a special session of a ministerial committee on settlement to approve the construction, Reuters reported March 13. Spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Nabil Abu Rdainah, said the decision to build the homes is wrong, unacceptable and will only create problems.

Intelligence Guidance: Questions on the West Bank Attack | STRATFOR
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: Afghan Security Forces To Take Over In 6 Areas March 10, 2011

Afghan security forces will soon replace NATO troops at six sites across the country, AP reported March 10, citing Wstern officials. The first phase of the transition will be in the provincial capitals of Lashkar Gah in the south, Herat in the west and Mazar-i-Sharif in the north. Next will be Bamiyan and Panjshir provinces, followed by all of Kabul province other than Surobi district (Afghan forces already are in charge of security for Kabul). NATO forces will either take on support roles in these areas or be sent home. Afghan Defense Minister Rahim Wardak said he expects NATO to endorse the list of areas for handover.

Afghanistan: At Least 33 Dead In Apparent Suicide Attack March 14, 2011

At least 33 people are dead following an apparent suicide attack on an army recruitment center in Kunduz, Afghanistan, BBC reported March 14, citing local officials. Also, more than 40 were injured as they waited at the center.

Afghanistan: NATO Seizes Shipment Of Iranian Rockets - Report March 9, 2011

NATO troops in Afghanistan seized nearly 50 Iranian-made rockets intended to help the Taliban in their spring campaign, an international intelligence official said, AP reported March 9. Acting on an intelligence tip, NATO forces intercepted the rockets, which were being carried in a three-truck convoy, Feb. 5 in southern Nimroz province near the Iran-Pakistan border. The 122 mm rockets, whose technical details match other models from Iran, have twice the range of Iranian-provided 107 mm rockets used by the Taliban since 2006, the official said. The official said the increased range of the rockets decreases their accuracy, making them more likely to inflict civilian casualties in heavily populated areas such as Kandahar city. NATO forces seized a total of 48 warheads, 49 fuses and 49 rocket mortars in the raid. The shipment is considered a serious escalation in Iran’s support for the Taliban insurgency, the official added.

MIDDLE EAST
Agenda: With George Friedman on The Persian Gulf STRATFOR

Egypt: ElBaradei Sets Condition For Presidential Run March 9, 2011

Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei said that he will run for Egypt’s presidency as long as a new democratic system is in place, AP reported March 9, citing Egyptian state TV. ElBaradei said that the new constitutional amendments proposed to move Egypt toward democracy, which limits a president to two four-year terms and opens to door for independents and opposition members to be candidates, are superficial. ElBaradei said that he appealed to Egypt’s military rulers to get rid of the amendments or to delay a scheduled March 19 vote on them. The changes do not limit the powers of the president or give enough time for political parties to form, ElBaradei said.

Saudi Arabia: Police Fired Rubber Bullets In Qatif - Witness March 10, 2011

Saudi police fired rubber bullets to disperse around 200 Shiite demonstrators March 10 in the eastern city of Qatif, according to a human rights activist, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Dispatch: French Support For Intervention in Libya | STRATFOR

Bahrain: UAE Sends 500 Police Officers March 14, 2011

The United Arab Emirates sent about 500 police officers to Bahrain to help maintain order, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nuhayyan said, Reuters reported March 14. Bahrain had requested assistance on ways to defuse tensions in the country, and other Gulf states would also help maintain stability, al-Nuhayyan said.

Dispatch: GCC Forces Move Into Bahrain | STRATFOR
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Mexico: New Gang Announces Presence In Michoacan March 10, 2011

Banners appearing in Morelia, Zitacuaro and Apatzingan, Michoacan state, announced the presence of a new gang calling itself the Knights Templar, AP reported March 10. The signs said that the Knights Templar will replace La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and prevent other gangs from taking over the state. The signs said the group offers its services to defend Michoacan residents and will take on the role previously performed by LFM. It also said it is committed to keeping order; preventing robberies, kidnappings and extortions; and protecting the state from rival gangs.


MISC
Japan's Impending Problems after the Earthquake | STRATFOR

Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com

We are the good guys…

Then why are police in Wisconsin sending out Mafia style letters?

It’s a truism that cops are often their own worst enemies. The general orders that cover my agency have grown to almost four inches thick over the years often because of stupid things cops do. Classic case is putting investigation details on the internet. But this is far beyond the pale.

No matter how you come down on the recent events in Wisconsin (I for one support Governor Walker and I love the fact the Republicans used a legislative trick to push it though…the Democrats are screaming from their hind legs over it…although if the situation were reversed they would do it in a New York second!) you should not have you business threatened by union leaders. Several businesses recently received this letter and tell me if this is not threatening.

As you undoubtedly know, Governor Walker recently proposed a “budget adjustment bill” to eviscerate public employees’ right to collectively bargain in Wisconsin. Collective bargaining has maintained labor peace between public employers and employees for more than 50 years, and according to every poll taken in the last few weeks, it enjoys overwhelming public support. In refusing to accept the willingness of many of the unions to be flexible on economic matters, Governor Walker has made it clear that his bill is really aimed at union busting, rather than “putting the state’s fiscal house in order.”

"Eviscerate"...it ends the ability of unions to bargain for benefits, they can still bargain for pay and other issues. Not to mention most public workers have civil service protection. And the “Collective bargaining has maintained labor peace between public employers and employees for more than 50 years...” The employers are the public, i.e. Mr. and Mrs. John Q Public. Why do we need to “maintain labor peace” for the professionals we are paying for?

This revelation has caused Wisconsin citizens to hold massive demonstrations at the State Capitol and throughout Wisconsin in adamant opposition to Governor Walker’s attempt to destroy collective bargaining. Never before in our State’s history have we witnessed such a massive and continued outpouring of opposition to any governor or issue.

To put it politely that is a tall tale. More accurately there was a rent a mob that lied about sickness, shut down schools while attempting shut down the state government. Excuse me but are Al Sharption and Michael Moore "Wisconsin citizens"?

Now here is the real screwed up part of the letter

As you also know, Scott Walker did not campaign on this issue when he ran for office. If he had, we are confident that you would not be listed among his largest contributors. As such, we are contacting you now to request your support. The undersigned groups would like your company to publicly oppose Governor Walker’s efforts to virtually eliminate collective bargaining for public employees in Wisconsin. While we appreciate that you may need some time to consider this request, we ask for your response by March 17. In the event that you do not respond to this request by that date, we will assume that you stand with Governor Walker and against the teachers, nurses, police officers, fire fighters, and other dedicated public employees who serve our communities.

In the event that you cannot support this effort to save collective bargaining please be advised that the undersigned will publicly and formally boycott the goods and services provided by your company. However, if you join us, we will do everything in our power to publicly celebrate your partnership in the fight to preserve the right of public employees to be heard at the bargaining table. Wisconsin’s public employee unions serve to protect and promote equality and fairness in the workplace. We hope you will stand with us and publicly share that ideal.

This is a written mob letter! You get the mental image a group of large men in your office saying "you got a nice business here...must make some good money for you...we'd hate to see something happen to you place...hey, we can help you with that if you just drop us some consideration..." And it's different when a cop or fireman does it as opposed to a teacher. I'm not knocking teachers who provide a vital service to the public. But police and fire provide (regularly) urgent life services...handling fires, people needing emergency medical support, help when you’re getting your ass kicked or house broken into. What is implied by this letter is "we will be watching you and we remember...."

I would remind the people signing this letter that a union, by its nature, is a group in opposition to something. In the past we've had trade unions for men with special skills (e.g. carpenters) to represent workers against the business owners. Now with public unions who are the business owners? I think it's the taxpaying public. And they are paying a lot of money to get critical services (police, fire, ambulance) they need. Government payola is not something else. One they've already paid. And two it's an embarrassment for the profession to stoup to this level.

Thanks to WSJ Best of the Web.

Iran and the Saudis' Countermove on Bahrain March 14, 2011

Bahraini police fire tear gas at protesters in Manama on March 13Related

By George Friedman

Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition force into Bahrain to help the government calm the unrest there. This move puts Iran in a difficult position, as Tehran had hoped to use the uprising in Bahrain to promote instability in the Persian Gulf region. Iran could refrain from acting and lose an opportunity to destabilize the region, or it could choose from several other options that do not seem particularly effective.

The Bahrain uprising consists of two parts, as all revolutions do. The first is genuine grievances by the majority Shiite population — the local issues and divisions. The second is the interests of foreign powers in Bahrain. It is not one or the other. It is both.

The Iranians clearly benefit from an uprising in Bahrain. It places the U.S. 5th Fleet’s basing in jeopardy, puts the United States in a difficult position and threatens the stability of other Persian Gulf Arab states. For the Iranians, the uprisings in North Africa and their spread to the Arabian Peninsula represent a golden opportunity for pursuing their long-standing interest (going back to the Shah and beyond) of dominating the Gulf.

The Iranians are accustomed to being able to use their covert capabilities to shape the political realities in countries. They did this effectively in Iraq and are doing it in Afghanistan. They regarded this as low risk and high reward. The Saudis, recognizing that this posed a fundamental risk to their regime and consulting with the Americans, have led a coalition force into Bahrain to halt the uprising and save the regime. Pressed by covert forces, they were forced into an overt action they were clearly reluctant to take.

We are now off the map, so to speak. The question is how the Iranians respond, and there is every reason to think that they do not know. They probably did not expect a direct military move by the Saudis, given that the Saudis prefer to act more quietly themselves. The Iranians wanted to destabilize without triggering a strong response, but they were sufficiently successful in using local issues that the Saudis felt they had no choice in the matter. It is Iran’s move.

If Iran simply does nothing, then the wave that has been moving in its favor might be stopped and reversed. They could lose a historic opportunity. At the same time, the door remains open in Iraq, and that is the main prize here. They might simply accept the reversal and pursue their main line. But even there things are murky. There are rumors in Washington that U.S. President Barack Obama has decided to slow down, halt or even reverse the withdrawal from Iraq. Rumors are merely rumors, but these make sense. Completing the withdrawal now would tilt the balance in Iraq to Iran, a strategic disaster.

Therefore, the Iranians are facing a counter-offensive that threatens the project they have been pursuing for years just when it appeared to be coming to fruition. Of course, it is just before a project succeeds that opposition mobilizes, so they should not be surprised that resistance has grown so strong. But surprised or not, they now have a strategic decision to make and not very long to make it.

They can up the ante by increasing resistance in Bahrain and forcing fighting on the ground. It is not clear that the Bahraini opposition is prepared to take that risk on behalf of Iran, but it is a potential option. They have the option of trying to increase unrest elsewhere in order to spread the Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council forces, weakening their impact. It is not clear how much leverage the Iranians have in other countries. The Iranians could try to create problems in Saudi Arabia, but given the Saudis’ actions in Bahrain, this becomes more difficult.

Finally, they can attempt an overt intervention, either in Bahrain or elsewhere, such as Iraq or Afghanistan. A naval movement against Bahrain is not impossible, but if the U.S. Navy intervenes, which it likely would, it would be a disaster for the Iranians. Operations in Iraq or Afghanistan might be more fruitful. It is possible that Shiite insurgents will operate in Iraq, but that would guarantee a halt of the U.S. withdrawal without clearly increasing the Iranians’ advantage there. They want U.S. forces to leave, not give them a reason to stay.

There is then the indirect option, which is to trigger a war with Israel. The killings in the West Bank and Israeli concerns about Hezbollah might be some of Iran’s doing, with the emphasis on “might.” But it is not clear how a Hezbollah confrontation with Israel would help Iran’s position relative to Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. It diverts attention, but the Saudis know the stakes and they will not be easily diverted.

The logic, therefore, is that Iran retreats and waits. But the Saudi move shifts the flow of events, and time is not on Iran’s side.

There is also the domestic Iranian political situation to consider. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been strong in part because of his successful handling of foreign policy. The massive failure of a destabilization plan would give his political opponents the ammunition needed to weaken him domestically. We do not mean a democratic revolution in Iran, but his enemies among the clergy who see him as a threat to their position, and hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who want an even more aggressive stand.

Ahmadinejad finds himself in a difficult position. The Saudis have moved decisively. If he does nothing, his position can unravel and with it his domestic political strength. Yet none of the counters he might use seem effective or workable. In the end, his best option is to create a crisis in Iraq, forcing the United States to consider how deeply it wants to be drawn back into Iraq. He might find weakness there that he can translate into some sort of political deal.

At the moment we suspect the Iranians do not know how they will respond. The first issue will have to be determining whether they can create violent resistance to the Saudis in Bahrain, to both tie them down and increase the cost of occupation. It is simply unclear whether the Bahrainis are prepared to pay the price. The opposition does seem to want fundamental change in Bahrain, but it is not clear that they have reached the point where they are prepared to resist and die en masse.

That is undoubtedly what the Iranians are exploring now. If they find that this is not an option, then none of their other options are particularly good. All of them involve risk and difficulty. It also requires that Iran commit itself to confrontations that it has tried to avoid. It prefers covert action that is deniable to overt action that is not.

As we move into the evening, we expect the Iranians are in intense discussions of their next move. Domestic politics are affecting regional strategy, as would be the case in any country. But the clear roadmap the Iranians were working from has now collapsed. The Saudis have called their hand, and they are trying to find out if they have a real or a busted flush. They will have to act quickly before the Saudi action simply becomes a solid reality. But it is not clear what they can do quickly. For the moment, the Saudis have the upper hand. But the Iranians are clever and tenacious. There are no predictions possible. We doubt even the Iranians know what they will do.

C: www.stratfor.com