Officer Down

Deputy Sheriff Scott Ballantyne
Tulare County Sheriff's Office, California
End of Watch: Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Age: 52
Tour: 27 years
Badge # 189

Deputy Sheriff Scott Ballantyne and Mr. James Chavez, a civilian pilot, were killed in an airplane crash near Lake Success at approximately 4:15 pm.

The aircraft was assisting deputies on the ground search for a subject wanted for brandishing a firearm. It was preparing to leave the area after the suspect was arrested when it suddenly lost altitude and crashed into a mountain in the area of Route 190 in Springville.

Deputy Ballantyne and Mr. Chavez were the only two occupants of the CTLE ultralight.

Deputy Ballantyne had served with the Tulare County Sheriff's Office for 27 years. He is survived by his mother and sister.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

K9 Down

K9 Jola
Jim Wells County Sheriff's Office, Texas
End of Watch: Monday, August 10, 2015
Age: 5
Gender: F

K9 Jola died of heat exhaustion after her handler accidentally left her in their patrol car during a period of high temperatures.

Jola was purchased with drug forfeiture money and served as a narcotics detector canine. She had served with the Jim Wells County Sheriff's Office for three years.

Rest in Peace Jota…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Conversation: Europe's Terrorist Threat

Conversation: Europe&amp's Terrorist Threat

Stratfor Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton and Vice President of Tactical Intelligence Scott Stewart discuss the persistent and multifaceted jihadist threat in Europe. "Conversation: Europe's Terrorist Threat is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Officer Down

Deputy Sheriff Derek Geer
Mesa County Sheriff's Office, Colorado
End of Watch: Monday, February 8, 2016
Age: 40
Tour: 15 years

Deputy Sheriff Derek Geer succumbed to gunshot wounds sustained the previous day while attempting to question a juvenile in the area of 30 Road and E Road, in Grand Junction, at approximately 11:15 am.

He and other deputies were investigating reports of an armed subject in the area and spotted the juvenile, who matched the description of the subject. As Deputy Geer spoke to the juvenile, the boy asked him if he was being detained. When Deputy Geer told him that he was being detained the boy pulled away from him and a struggle ensued.

Deputy Geer deployed a taser, however, the subject was able to pull out a handgun and open fire. Deputy Geer was struck multiple times, including in the face. He was able to radio for assistance but had become unresponsive by the time another deputy arrived at his location. He was transported to St. Mary's Hospital where he remained on life support so his organs could be donated.

The juvenile was arrested a short time later after being found hiding in the backyard of a nearby home.

Deputy Geer was a U.S. Navy veteran and had served with the Mesa County Sheriff's Office for 15 years. He is survived by his wife and two children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

K9 Down

K9 Zeke
Muldrow Police Department, Oklahoma
End of Watch: Thursday, July 23, 2015
Age: 7
Gender: M

K9 Zeke died from heat exhaustion after the air conditioner in handler's patrol car malfunctioned.

His handler was inside the police station working on a case for an extended period of time. Zeke had been left in the handler's patrol car with the air conditioner running. His handler returned to the patrol car approximately 90 minutes later and discovered the air conditioner blowing hot air. Zeke was found deceased in the vehicle.

Zeke had served with the Muldrow Police Department for four years.

Rest in Peace Zeke…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Conversation: The Shifting Tides of Globalization

Conversation: The Shifting Tides of Globalization "Conversation: The Shifting Tides of Globalization is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Officer Down

Sergeant Jason Goodding
Seaside Police Department, Oregon
End of Watch: Friday, February 5, 2016
Age: 39
Tour: 13 years
Badge # 604

Sergeant Jason Goodding was shot and killed as he and another officer attempted to serve a warrant on a subject on the 300 block of Broadway Street at approximately 9:30 pm.

They observed the subject walking along the street and recognized him as having an active felony warrant. The subject resisted arrest and was tasered. However, he was still able to shoot Sergeant Goodding. Another officer on scene was able to return fire and killed the subject.

Sergeant Goodding had served with the Seaside Police Department for 13 years. He is survived by his wife and two daughters.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

K9

K9 Zane
Conyers Police Department, Georgia
End of Watch: Thursday, July 16, 2015
Breed: Bloodhound
Age: 5
Gender: M

K9 Zane died as the result of heat exhaustion after being accidentally left in his handler's patrol car in Rockland County.

His handler had gone home sick and inadvertently left Zane in the vehicle. He discovered Zane in the vehicle seven hours later.

Zane had served with the Conyers Police Department for four years.

Rest in Peace Zane…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Conversation: Maritime Security Challenges in Southeast Asia

Conversation: Maritime Security Challenges in Southeast Asia Stratfor Middle East Analyst Emily Hawthorne and East Asia Analyst Roman Muzalevsky discuss maritime security cooperation between Southeast Asian countries.

Conversation: Maritime Security Challenges in Southeast Asia is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Officer Down

Special Agent Scott McGuire
United States Department of Homeland Security - Immigration and Customs Enforcement - Homeland Security Investigations, U.S. Government
End of Watch: Sunday, January 24, 2016
Age: 41
Incident Date: 1/15/2016

Special Agent Scott McGuire succumbed to injuries sustained nine days earlier when he and another agent were struck by a drunk driver near the intersection of Collins Avenue and Espanola Way, in Miami Beach, Florida.

Both agents were on duty and standing on Collins Avenue when a vehicle jumped the curb and struck them at approximately 2:20 am. The driver was arrested later in the day after Miami Beach police officers located the vehicle, which had fled the scene.

Agent McGuire and the other agent were both transported to a local hospital. Agent McGuire succumbed to his injuries on January 24th, 2016.

Agent McGuire was survived by his wife and son.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh. 

Step back look at the Orlando terrorist attack.

Putting the Orlando Attack in Context Stratfor Vice President of Tactical Analysis Scott Stewart examines the Orlando attack as part of a broader trend of self-radicalized grassroots jihadists attacking soft targets.

Putting the Orlando Attack in Context is republished with permission of Stratfor.

K9 Down

K9 Titus
Little Rock Police Department, Arkansas
End of Watch: Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Gender: M
Incident Date: 7/14/2015

K9 Titus died as the result of heat exhaustion following a lengthy track and take down of a subject wanted for stealing items from vehicles.

Titus located the subject, who then resisted arrest. Titus was released and subdued the subject, allowing officers to take him into custody. Immediately following the apprehension Titus started exhibiting signs of heat stress and was transported to Briarwood Animal Hospital, where he passed away.

K9 Titus had served with the Little Rock Police Department for three years and was assigned to the Downtown Division.

Rest in Peace Titus …till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

Series Preview: North Korea's Nuclear Threat

Series Preview: North Korea's Nuclear Threat Stratfor Vice President of Asia-Pacific Analysis Rodger Baker and Military Analyst Sim Tack discuss the United States' options for dealing with North Korea's nuclear capabilities.

Series Preview: North Korea's Nuclear Threat is republished with permission of Stratfor.

What's going on in the World Today 160613

HYPERLINKS MAY REQUIRE AN EMAIL:

USA

How U.S. Strategy Impacts China’s Rise

Stratfor recently wrote that China's economic rise has created for it an imperative to secure key trade routes and to protect its overseas resources and markets from foreign interdiction. The United States must respond to China's rise because of its need to control the world's oceans and to prevent the emergence of another regional hegemon, even if this need does not determine the precise nature and timing of that response....

AFRICA

Yemen's Looming Water Crisis

For all that is said about water scarcity, the term is somewhat misused. Often, water becomes more difficult to access or becomes more expensive; on a countrywide scale, it remains available in most cases. But some countries are actually running out of water. Yemen is one such country.

A strong central government can find solutions and adapt to slow the decline of resources. But because Yemen's weak central government cannot ensure domestic stability, the country shows little potential of being able to resolve or even mitigate its water scarcity problems in the near term, leading hydrologists to predict that it could run out of water within the decade. While there are several countries that withdraw more water than is available, their situations are not yet as dire as Yemen's. Still, Yemen can serve as a benchmark in assessing other countries in the region where changes in water management policies will be vital to watch...

ASIA

Touring India's Foreign Policy Objectives

Summary

Governing India is a complex endeavor. It is South Asia's largest nation, immensely populous and divided by religion, ethnicity, caste and 23 official languages. It also favors federalism, like the United States, and the resulting balancing act between the state and national levels can be complex, creating inefficiencies in governance and hindering the legislative process. This helps explain why the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has failed to pass its land, labor and tax reforms despite enjoying a sizable majority in the lower house of India's parliament. Stymied by domestic politics, Narendra Modi, now in his third year as India's prime minister, has pursued an ambitious foreign policy. He embarked June 4 on a five-day, five-nation tour that will take him through Afghanistan, Qatar, Switzerland, Mexico and the United States, five countries that reflect different facets of Modi's foreign policy…

Turkey's Militants Get More Organized

Summary

Turkey's biggest Kurdish militant group is looking to expand, and it might turn to Russia for help. The Kurdistan Workers' Party, better known by its Kurdish acronym, PKK, has established an umbrella organization for the country's leftist militancies in an effort to broaden its own capabilities and extend its support base beyond the pro-Kurd community. The new group, known as the Peoples' United Revolutionary Movement (HBDH), is led by the chief of the PKK's most radical leftist faction. Its stated intention is to promote its political agenda, which opposes the Turkish state and the ruling Justice and Development Party in particular, through the use of propaganda and terrorist attacks, including against foreign nationals. Because Russia has a long history of using Turkey's militant groups — especially the PKK — to promote its own interests in the region, there is little doubt that Moscow will seize the opportunity created by the HBDH to do so again. By supporting the PKK's newest endeavor, Russia might be able to keep Turkey preoccupied with problems at home and out of Moscow's affairs elsewhere in the Middle East...

EUROPE

Poland: Large-Scale NATO Exercise Begins

A NATO exercise that includes 31,000 soldiers from 18 NATO members and five partner countries began in Poland on June 7, Radio Poland reported. The exercise is the largest military exercise held in Poland since 1989 and will run until June 17. It also comes ahead of a two-day NATO summit in Warsaw set to begin July 8. According to reports, the exercise will focus on coordination between the coalition and the military leadership of individual member states in the case of hybrid warfare.

MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: Al Qaeda Appears To Pledge Allegiance To New Taliban Leader

An unverified audio statement recorded May 27 and circulated on social media June 11 appears to indicate that al Qaeda head Ayman al-Zawahiri has pledged allegiance to the Taliban's new leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, CNN reported. Akhundzada became head of the Taliban in May, taking over from Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, who was killed in a drone strike in Pakistan's Balochistan province. The loss of their leader Taliban did little to blunt the insurgency and Washington granted more authority June 10 to the U.S. military in carrying out airstrikes amid the group's ongoing spring offensive.


CHINA


In the East China Sea, Beijing’s Big Ships Push the Envelope

Much of the world’s attention has been focused on the test of wills between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea, where China has been asserting territorial claims by building a network of artificial islands and sending out ships to patrol them. But a thousand-odd miles to the north, in the East China Sea, tension is quietly and steadily mounting into an even potentially more dangerous cocktail of disputed islands, feverish nationalism, and well-armed adversaries.

China has begun sailing bigger ships — old navy vessels nominally now serving as Coast Guard ones — near islands that Beijing and Tokyo both claim, as well as carrying out provocative flights with advanced jets overhead. Those aggressive tactics have alarmed Japan and raised the risk of a potentially violent incident between the two — and unlike in the South China Sea, where the United States has been vague about its readiness to help the Philippines in a dispute with Beijing, Washington has made clear it will honor its treaty obligations to come to Japan’s rescue…

…China’s bold tactics at sea, its growing military punch, and the nationalist rhetoric surrounding the feud in both countries arguably pose a more dangerous threat than the simmering disputes in the South China Sea. In Southeast Asia, Beijing is a heavyweight that wields overwhelming military and economic power compared with its smaller neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam.

But in the East China Sea standoff, Japan, after decades of indifference and official pacifism, is flexing its military muscles and showing a determination to counter Beijing’s attempts to assert its territorial claims. Tokyo is investing record levels in its military, especially the navy, building up amphibious forces, bolstering missile defenses, buying stealthy F-35 fighter jets, and increasingly taking part in big military exercises with the United States and other countries. Next month, Japanese forces will join ships from the U.S. and Indian navies in a drill in the East China Sea.

…When ships or planes met up in contested areas in the East China Sea, there had been “a lot of cursing and threats” by pilots and ship commanders, he said. Now there is a more disciplined, professional approach under the new set of rules. “Both Japan and China have realized there needs to be a proportional set of protocols,” the admiral said.

The two countries have feuded over ownership of the eight uninhabited islands, which the Japanese call the Senkakus and the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands, off and on for more than a century. Japan controls the islands, and China claims them. But the dispute turned into a full-fledged crisis in 2012, when Tokyo’s governor vowed to use public money to buy the islands from a Japanese private owner, setting off outrage in China and hostile encounters at sea…

…While the number of Chinese ships operating near the islands has remained the same over the past three years, the size of the vessels has mushroomed. In 2014, the Chinese Coast Guard ships deployed to the Senkakus displaced an average of roughly 2,200 tons, according to numbers released by Beijing. By 2015, the average swelled to more than 3,200 tons.

Some of the large vessels are former naval warships, such as the Haijing 31239, which is outfitted with 37 mm guns. And China also is building formidable Coast Guard vessels with reinforced hulls and powerful weapons, some of which are larger than American naval destroyers.

The Chinese fleet includes two “mega-cutters,” the largest coast guard vessels in the world, which have a 76 mm cannon on the bow, two machine guns, and a hangar and landing pad for helicopters. The 12,000-ton ships are significantly larger than most U.S. naval vessels and three times the size of a standard 4,000-ton U.S. Coast Guard cutter.

“Raw size matters, tonnage matters, when ships are up along side each other,” said Gregory Poling, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies…

China’s New Silk Road Into Europe Is About More Than Money
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/01/chinas-new-silk-road-into-europe-is-about-more-than-money/

China is actively building out the European portion of its ambitious new “Silk Road” plan, with port deals from Greece to the Netherlands, railroad investments in Greece, Serbia, and Hungary, as well as a handful of historic, high-profile state visits this spring by President Xi Jinping.

Beijing’s multibillion-dollar plans to build overland and maritime links across Central and South Asia — whether that means huge investments in Pakistan or gas pipeline deals in places like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — grab the lion’s share of attention. But the ultimate prize in the Silk Road plan — also known in China as the “One Belt, One Road” initiative — is someplace else: Europe.


A Look at Progress on a Chinese Aircraft Carrier



China's aircraft carrier program is the centerpiece of its strategy to project force as a global naval power. Not only do Chinese aircraft carriers lend Beijing military prestige, but they will also be instrumental in securing crucial overseas supply lines. For now, China's aircraft carrier program is in its early stages, but Beijing plans to eventually commission at least three carriers…

…The new Type 001A aircraft carrier will follow the Liaoning's basic design, though slightly improved. Like the Liaoning, the new ship will have a displacement of approximately 50,000 to 60,000 tons, and it will feature a Short Takeoff But Arrested Recovery (STOBAR) system. STOBAR allows aircraft to take off under their own power, using a curved ramp for assistance; when landing, planes hook onto arrestor wires. STOBAR, though effective, is not as capable as the catapult system, known as CATOBAR, used on U.S. Nimitz-class fleet carriers. Relative to STOBAR, CATOBAR enables launched aircraft to carry significantly more fuel and greater payloads.

China: Explosion At Shanghai Airport Wounds 3

An explosion at Shanghai's Pudong International Airport has injured three people, Chinese officials said June 12, BBC reported. What appeared to be a homemade explosive blew up near a check-in counter in Terminal Two. It is not yet clear who detonated the explosive or why. In 2013, a wheelchair-bound man set off a bomb at Beijing airport to highlight a personal grievance.

IRAN

In Iran, Economic Reforms Hit a Hard Line

Analysis

With the nuclear deal between Iran and the West firmly in place, a struggle for economic power and influence within Iran is intensifying. The debate is over how much Iran should open its economy to the West and how the resulting gains should be distributed. Now that the February parliamentary elections, which resulted in a victory for many moderate politicians, have passed, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will hope to move forward with his ambitious economic reform goals. Those goals are largely based upon economic re-engagement with the world, including the West…

IRAQ

Iraq: Troops Advance On Villages Near Mosul

Iraqi troops advanced against the Islamic State south of Mosul on June 12 as the U.S.-led coalition intensifies its campaign against the militants on multiple fronts across the country, Reuters reported. Officers involved in the operation said Iraqi forces had moved toward the village of Haj Ali in tanks and armored vehicles under cover of coalition airstrikes and artillery fire, capturing another village on the way. Haj Ali sits on the eastern bank of the Tigris River, opposite the Islamic State hub of Qayara, where there is an airfield that is set to serve as a staging ground for future operations to recapture Mosul. The Islamic State overran Mosul in 2014 but has come under increasing pressure in recent months, losing ground to an array of forces in Iraq and Syria. Iraqi forces are also advancing on the edge of Fallujah further south. In Syria, U.S.-backed forces are encircling the militant-held town of Manbij.

In Iran, Economic Reforms Hit a Hard Line

Summary

For years, Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran have been in talks to construct a pipeline that would transport Kurdish oil to the Iranian market. Until now, the negotiations have lagged as the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) instead focused on developing an oil export route through Turkey. But new momentum may be building in favor of the Iranian option, particularly as Kurdish coffers run low and Tehran maneuvers to minimize Ankara's influence. If finalized, the new pipeline would bring the KRG one step closer to the financial independence it seeks…

ISRAEL

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

RUSSIA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

SYRIA

Syria: U.S.-Backed Forces Cut Main Supply Route To Islamic State-Held Town

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces cut on June 10 the main supply route from Turkey to the Islamic State-held town of Manbij, effectively surrounding the town, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and a high-ranking U.S. military official said, Naharnet and AFP reported. Around 20,000 people of a pre-war population of about 120,000 still remain in the town, which has served a key point on the Islamic State's supply line from Turkey. Instead of retreating from the offensive, the Islamic State chose to bring reinforcements into Manbij. Now, with militants trapped in the town and exit routes closed off, the town will likely be the site of heavy urban fighting.

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

A Shaken Calm in Jordan

Summary

In a tumultuous region, Jordan has managed to remain a bastion of stability, largely through the deft maneuvering of its leader, King Abdullah II. A longtime Western ally, the country has provided a haven for refugees from numerous regional conflicts. But a recent attack has shaken this calm. Early on the morning of June 6, an unspecified number of gunmen carrying semi-automatic weapons opened fire at a security office in the Baqaa refugee camp — located just 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Jordan's capital, Amman — killing five personnel from the Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate, including three noncommissioned officers....

Securing the Saudi Vote in Lebanon

Lebanon has been in a state of upheaval for years. Since former President Michel Suleiman left office in 2014, the country's two main political blocs have failed dozens of times to agree on a suitable successor. The Sunni-dominated March 14 Alliance, backed by Saudi Arabia, and the Shiite-dominated March 8 Alliance, backed by Iran, remain at loggerheads over the country's future leader. Throughout the negotiations, Hezbollah, a powerful force in the March 8 Alliance, has been a particular sticking point, renouncing any candidate but its own, Michel Aoun. Saudi Arabia and Iran, meanwhile, are using their influence to ensure that Lebanon's next president represents their interests. As increasingly hard-line leaders in the March 14 Alliance take a tough stance on Hezbollah, Lebanon's political scene is perhaps more polarized than ever….

Saudi Arabia: Cabinet Approves National Transformation Program

Saudi Arabia's Cabinet approved late on June 6 the country's National Transformation Program, a five-year economic blueprint that falls under the country's larger Vision 2030 reforms, Asharq al-Awsat reported June 7. The National Transformation Program provides targets for various Saudi ministries for goals to be achieved by 2020 in a number of areas, including in the oil and gas sector and in the power sector, as well as goals related to the internet, taxes, the hajj, among others. Saudi Arabia, which has a long history of setting out ambitious economic goals encapsulated in five-year plans, was expected to approve the program.

Building Bridges Between Egypt and Saudi Arabia



Summary

During Saudi King Salman's first official visit to Cairo recently, he and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced their intent to revive the often-discussed plans to build a bridge that would create a direct link between their countries. While the bridge plans are somewhat nebulous, the two leaders also signed off on a more concrete accord, an agreement that redraws the maritime boundary between the two nations to return control over two strategic islands situated at the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba, Tiran and Sanafir, to Saudi Arabia. If the bridge is ever built, it could prove a mixed blessing for both states; the island transfer, on the other hand, has created political outrage in Egypt...

MISC

The Ghosts of Crimes Long Past

I had been on the job as a special agent for four years when, in 1989, the chairman of Germany's Deutsche Bank was assassinated in a plot so sophisticated that the case remains unsolved to this day. Alfred Herrhausen was riding in an armored Mercedes limousine when an explosion ripped through the vehicle's plating, destroying its passenger side. The bomb, it turns out, had been hidden in a bicycle on the side of the road and synced to detonate precisely as the three-vehicle motorcade passed.

Authorities suspected that a German terrorist group called the Red Army Faction (RAF) was behind the attack. Originating in Europe in 1970, the group had been better known early on as the Baader-Meinhof Group, named for two of its founding leaders, Andreas Baader and female operative Ulrike Meinhof. The radical leftist organization had a long history of conducting targeted assassinations, embassy hostage-takings and bombings that targeted U.S. personnel and police. It adopted violent tactics in hopes of provoking a harsh government response that would foment a broader social revolution in Germany...

Preventing a Blackout by Taking the Power Grid Offline

With hackers attacking electrical grids, banks, and a growing list of other targets, some policymakers and security researchers are calling for turning the clock back to an earlier era when devices weren’t connected to the internet — or vulnerable to digital attack.

The American power grid is more efficient than ever before because electricity plants, transformers, and other key pieces of infrastructure are networked together, allowing for electricity to be redirected in real time from areas with too much to those needing more.

The problem is that those gains have also left the overall system open to attack. Power stations and grids run by network-connected computer control systems can be hacked to cause widespread power outages.

American intelligence officials have long warned that the U.S. grid would represent a ripe target in a time of war, and U.S. adversaries are heavily investing in the capabilities to take it down. In Ukraine, hackers attacked a portion of the country’s grid over Christmas and succeeded in knocking out power for thousands of customers in the middle of the bitter winter. Officials in Kiev quickly pointed the finger at Moscow for the unprecedented attack, but the Kremlin denied responsibility.

Desperately looking for new ways of shoring up the U.S. grid’s defenses against digital attack, a bipartisan group of lawmakers is pushing a decidedly counterintuitive approach to cybersecurity: ditching cutting-edge digital technology for old-school analog control mechanisms.

Families as Soft Targets

Mahmuda Khanam left her apartment in Chittagong, Bangladesh, on June 5 to walk her 6-year-old son to a school bus stop. On the way, they were approached by three men who stabbed her repeatedly, then shot her point-blank in the head, leaving her dead on the pavement with the shocked child. The assailants sped away on a motorcycle…

Libya: Anti-Islamic State Forces Make Gains In Sirte

Forces loyal to Libya's Government of National Accord are continuing to advance into the Islamic State stronghold of Sirte, security sources said, Reuters reported June 9. Most of the militiamen taking part in the advance are fighters from the city of Misrata. According to sources, fighters captured the Taqrift military camp from the Islamic State, and militia statements released on social media detail a number of other gains, though these remain unconfirmed. Routing the Islamic State in Sirte, where it had been hoping to build up a power center in Libya, is key to significantly damaging its prospects in the country.

When the Mighty Fall, Where Do They Land?

Analysis

By Stephen Rakowski

Politics can be a rough business. What happens when leaders lose their positions of authority, the halls of power close, and their supposed friends and allies desert them? What happens when a leader's very survival is in jeopardy? Political defeat can come from the ballot box or the bullet, and there's a big difference between leaders who find themselves shut out of their political system but who can remain in their countries and those who, through the loss of power to rivals or a popular uprising, end up banished from their homelands. Leaders in many parts of the world are not always afforded the luxury of safety when the political tides turn against them...

Debunking the Myth of Total Security

Last week, someone asked me whether I thought it was safe to travel to Izmir, Turkey. Thanks to my line of work, these kinds of questions no longer surprise me. People have been asking me such things for almost as long as I can remember. And since I have gained visibility through my work as Stratfor's lead terrorism and security analyst and as the author of a book on travel security, the inquiries have become only more frequent…

Officer Down

Correctional Officer Adam Conrad
Marion County Sheriff's Office, Illinois
End of Watch: Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Age: 22
Tour: 1 year, 5 months

Correctional Officer Adam Conrad was killed in a vehicle crash while conducting a prisoner transport at approximately 8:00 am.

The transport van he was driving went out of control while driving through an area of snow near Mount Vernon, Illinois. The van crossed the center median of I-57, near milepost 84, and was struck by a tractor trailer heading in the opposite direction.

Officer Conrad and the juvenile prisoner were both transported to area hospitals. Officer Conrad succumbed to his injuries.

Officer Conrad had served with the Marion County Sheriff's Office for 1-1/2 years. He is survived by his parents and brother.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

The Army gets a new toy....

And it looks good!

US Army infantry platoons will be getting a little more “boom” very soon. Jane’s, among other news outlets, report that the US Army has finally approved the M3 Carl Gustav 84mm recoilless rifle for general issue to the infantry platoon. From IHS Jane’s:

US Army light infantry units are to be equipped with the Saab 84 mm Carl Gustaf M3 Multirole Anti-Armor Anti-Personnel Weapon System (MAAWS) as a standard issue tactical support weapon, following completion of a Conditional Materiel Release (CMR) authorisation by the army in late 2015. In parallel, the army continues planning and tasking efforts to achieve Full Material Release (FMR) to the service in late 2016.

With the CMR complete, the M3 is now officially an organic weapon system within each army combat platoon, and will initially be fielded within selected Infantry Brigade Combat Teams (IBCTs), which will now train, maintain, and sustain the M3 as part of the IBCT organisational structure. Going forward, all brigade combat teams will receive 27 Carl Gustaf launchers, about one per platoon.

“The CMR allowed the system to be quickly fielded to operational units before the more exhaustive Type Classification [TC] FMR process is completed. This allows IBCT commanders to train and deploy with the M3 MAAWS, pending finalisation of the TC FMR progress,” Jack Seymour, marketing director for Saab North America, told IHS Jane’s.

Select army active duty and National Guard components have already begun receiving the M3 MAAWS, and beginning this year units equipped with the system will be able to train and qualify on the weapon system in their home bases. The US Army’s Standards in Training Commissions (STRAC) allocations, outlined in the DA PAM 350-38, will authorise M3 MAAWS gunners and assistant gunners to qualify and maintain combat proficiency annually with live-fire exercises.

The 84mm recoilless rifles fire a wide variety of warheads, including high explosive rounds for both personnel and structures, high explosive anti tank (HEAT), smoke, illumination, and high explosive dual purpose (HEDP) rounds. It has an effective range of 1,200 meters and very high accuracy, making it an ideal weapon to counter long-range ambushes by entrenched enemy machine guns, while reducing engagement time and the potential for collateral damage versus light mortars. Versus long-range inert-projectile small arms concepts like the General Dynamics LWMMG .338 Norma medium MG, the Carl Gustav offers high explosive firepower and greater versatility.

Recoilless rifles operate by exploiting the principle of conservation of momentum; the weapons essentially eliminate recoil by ejecting propellant mass at high velocity from the rear of the gun, which allows the rifle itself to remain stationary. This allows an infantryman to use a weapon that would otherwise be far too large for a human to manage, at the cost of using propellant far less efficiently than a conventional artillery piece. Recoilless rifles provide higher accuracy and greater range than most rocket launching anti-tank weapons like the M72 LAW, while being far less expensive than more sophisticated systems like the Javelin missile.

Fielding of the M3 CG to regular units has been in the works since at least 2013.

Hey, looks good. Have to see how it does in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A Milestone for Women in Politics

There is a reason I love Reason magazine!

Political protest in Russia

A look at protest against the Putin regime in Russia

Postering: Russia's Newest Form of Protest

A man holds a protest poster during an anti-war rally in central Moscow. (VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

A new form of political protest is spreading quickly through Russia, and it may become more popular still as the country's September elections approach. Since late last year, satirical posters caricaturing Russian leaders and Kremlin policies have been appearing on the streets of Moscow. Authorities have been quick to take them down, only to find passersby — and the activists who put the posters up in the first place — posting them on social media, where they have attracted even more attention. Taken together, the posters' professional quality, witty content and rapid dissemination suggest that Russian protesters may be developing and adopting more peaceful tactics to express their discontent.

Analysis

The first notable example of these protest posters emerged in December 2015 on Pokrovka Street, deep in the heart of Moscow. At first glance, it looked like an advertisement for a new adaptation of Anton Chekov's play "The Seagull." But the Russian word for seagull, "chaika," is also the surname of Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika — and upon closer inspection, the poster joked that the play starred Chaika's two sons, who are currently being investigated for corruption. The words "Browder and intelligence agencies" were also buried within the poster, pointing to Hermitage Capital Management CEO and Kremlin critic William Browder, whose lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was killed in a Russian prison. After authorities removed the Chaika poster, more appeared throughout the city over the following week.

The poster on the left portrays a piece of cheese shaped like Crimea on a rattrap, the one on the right makes reference to Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika. (VARLAMOV/Facebook (R), LEONID VOLKOV/Twitter)

Not long after, a second poster — this time featuring Russian President Vladimir Putin — appeared nearby. It portrayed Putin as Russian singer Philip Kirkorov, saying "I'll sing to you. On all the country's TVs! The Best Songs." The poster listed fake song titles such as "The Ruble Falls — Revenues Grow," and "We Will Not Seize Your Pensions." Eugene Levkovich, the founder of a relatively new Russian protest movement called Julia & Winston, claimed credit for the poster and referred to himself as a "poster guerrilla." He added that Russia's dissatisfied citizens have no other way to express themselves, since the police detain anyone holding signs or protests. According to Levkovich, the poster cost him 15,000 rubles (about $226) to make, a hefty sum for the average young Russian amid the country's current recession.

Putin is portrayed as Russian singer Philip Kirkorov on the left. A picture of Stalin's death mask is shown on the right, with a cryptic message. (JULIA & WINSTON/Facebook (R), DAVID HOMAK/Twitter)

In January, yet another poster cropped up in Moscow's Garden Ring near the Paveletskaya railway station, one of the largest in the city. It featured an image of Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov with the word "shame" written underneath. The poster was raised following a Krasnoyarsk City Council deputy's public condemnation of Kadyrov as "the shame of Russia," a description the Chechen president heatedly disputed. Meduza journalist Daniel Turov received threats from the police after he snapped several photographs of the poster before it was removed by a local Chechen.

Then on March 5, the anniversary of Josef Stalin's death, the same railway station was plastered with a fourth poster, this time showing Stalin's death mask. It said, "This one died and so will that," prompting rampant speculation on social media as to whom or what the second half of the phrase was referring to. Human rights groups including Open Russia jumped at the chance to disseminate the image and condemn both Stalin and Putin. Meanwhile, the country's TV Rain linked the poster to the efforts of opposition heavyweight Alexei Navalny, although there is no evidence that Navalny or his Anti-Corruption Foundation were involved in the poster's production.

Unsurprisingly, the recent publication of the Panama Papers has given the poster guerrillas new fodder for their work. The leaked documents revealed that several of Putin's friends have stashed away billions of dollars, likely at the president's behest, in offshore holdings. In a matter of days after the Panama Papers' April 3 release, a poster was put up in central Moscow on Zemlyanoye Val Street. The image, possibly taken from a poster for the movie "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas," in which Johnny Depp plays a drug-addled journalist, asks "What Panama?" And this week, yet another highly stylized poster appeared portraying Crimea as a piece of cheese on a rattrap.

One poster apes Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas author Hunter S. Thompson, while Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov is shown on the right with the word "shame" written beneath him. (OPEN RUSSIA/Facebook (R), PPRUZAVIN/Instagram)

The protest posters are beginning to show up in other cities, too. In Rostov, for instance, a professional but less stylized banner was raised over a road full of potholes and covered in trash. It read, "Vote for United Russia, and your life will be like this road." Each of these postering incidents, though minor on its own, has rippled throughout social media and many Russian media outlets.

So far, the poster guerrilla movement is small, but its level of professionalization reflects a notable shift among activists who do not feel safe protesting publicly in Russia's current environment. The quality of the posters also raises questions of whether their producers are receiving sums of money from larger groups, such as the country's established liberal opposition or foreign backers. An interesting pattern across the posters is that none of the personalities they criticize — Putin, Kadyrov, Chaika and United Russia — are tied to the federal security services. Though this may well be a coincidence, the security branches' responses to the posters, and whether or not they become the subject of future posters, will be worth watching.

The same is true of the protest posters' content, which so far has spanned the many grievances of the Russian population. Putin's corruption and reverence for Stalin, Russia's weak economy, the annexation of Crimea, and the manipulation of elections have all become targets of the poster guerrillas. As the country prepares to hold its first parliamentary elections since the widely disputed votes of 2011 and 2012, such political statements could increase as protesters try to spread their message and the Kremlin moves to stop them.

Postering: Russia's Newest Form of Protest is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Conversation: Comparing NATO with its Russian Counterpart

Stratfor Senior Eurasia Analyst Lauren Goodrich and Military Analyst Sim Tack discuss the challenges facing NATO and Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Conversation: Comparing NATO with its Russian Counterpart "Conversation: Comparing NATO with its Russian Counterpart is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Who Celebrates the Life of Clay's Replacement?

Below is a piece from long time friend and fellow Army officer, Colonel Mike Ford.

Culminating in the funeral activities, it has been a week long celebration and mourning of the life and death of Cassius Clay, AKA Muhammed Ali. Clay, an Olympic champion boxer turned pro, refused to answer the call of his country. His refusal to do his duty for his country, resulted in his imprisonment and the loss of his boxing title.

To his credit, Clay didn't run off to Canada. He did indeed stand up for his then, recently acquired principles, those espoused by the Nation of Islam, a radical offshoot of the political theocracy masquerading as a religion. He served his time and eventually resumed his heavyweight boxing career. He became the "Heavyweight Champion of the World," holding the title for several years.

After his boxing career began to falter and his health declined due to Parkinson's disease, Clay involved himself in charity work. By all accounts, he appears to have been very helpful in several efforts.

My purpose here, is not to excoriate Mr Clay. I was brought up to not speak ill of the dead, for they cannot defend themselves--and as I mentioned earlier, he served his time and paid his debt to society. My purpose here is to ask a few (unanswerable) questions and thereby change the focus of this discussion:

--Who had to replace Mr Clay in the draftee pipeline?

--Did that particular young man have to go to Vietnam?

--If so, did he come home alive and in one piece?

--If the best case did happen and a young man was called to duty against his will, but remained in a non-combat area, leaving the military when his tour was up; where does that young man go to regain those two years taken from his life because of the actions of Cassius Clay?

Bottom line--Where is the celebration of the life of that unknown young man who did his duty when called upon, when Clay wouldn't?

Mike Ford is a retired Infantry Colonel and sometime contributor to various publications.

K9 Down

K9 Baston
Savannah State University Police Department, Georgia
End of Watch: Friday, July 10, 2015
Breed: German Shepherd
Age: 7
Gender: M
Tour: 5 years
Cause: Heat exhaustion

K9 Baston died of heat exhaustion when he was accidentally left in his handler's patrol car for several hours.

His handler realized that Baston was still in the vehicle after approximately three hours in outside temperatures reaching above 95 degrees.

Baston had served with the Savannah State University Police Department for five years.

Rest in Peace Baston…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy

K9 Down

K9 Nitro
Stockton Police Department, California
End of Watch: Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Gender: M

K9 Nitro died of heat exhaustion after the air conditioner unit in the patrol car malfunctioned as outside temperatures reached 106 degrees.

Nitro had just apprehended a subject who fled during a warrant service in the 8600 block of Santa Paula Way. His handler placed him back in their patrol vehicle and then returned to assist the other officers. His handler returned to the vehicle approximately 15 minutes later and discovered that Nitro was in distress. He transported Nitro to a nearby veterinary clinic, but he died a short time later.

It was determined that the patrol car's air conditioner malfunctioned and stopped working.

Rest in Peace Nitro…till our next roll call at the Rainbow Bridge!

In Memory of all Police Dogs

They handled themselves with beauty & grace

And who could ever forget that beautiful face

Whether at work; or at home; whatever the test

They always worked hard; and did their best

They were real champions; at work or at play

But their lives were cut short; suddenly one day

While working on the job with their partner one day

They put themselves out on a limb; out into harms way

They gave the ultimate sacrifice; any dog can give

They gave up their life; so someone could live

The best of their breed; as his partner and anyone would say

Many hearts are now broken; that he had to prove it this way

Now as the trees are blowing in the gentle breeze

The sun is shining; thru the leaves on the trees

The meadows are green; and the grass grows tall

Off in the distance they can see a waterfall

As they look over the falls; down through the creek

The water flows gently; as a rabbit sneaks a peek

Far up above; in the deep blue sky

They see the birds soar high; as they fly by

They see animals playing; at the bridge by a waterfall

Chasing each other; and just having a ball

They play all day; from morning to night

There's no more rain; just warm sunlight

Off in the distance; they hear trumpets blow

Then all the animals look up; and notice a bright glow

The harps would play and the angels would sing

As they know they've come home; they've earned their wings

We remember that they died; in the line of duty

And are now with the Lord; sharing in heaven's beauty

Off to the meadows now; where they can play and roam free

With an occasional rest stop; under a tall oak tree

No more bad guys to chase; or bullets to take

Just a run through the meadow; down to the lake

A quick splash in the water; then back to the shore

Then it's off to the forest; to go play some more

These special dogs are back home; up in heaven above

They're cradled in God's arm's; and covered with His love

We'll light a candle for all of them; in the dark of night

In loving memory of all; these very special knights

By John Quealy