China has entered the final planning stages for a Winter Olympics that will seek to control the spread of Covid-19 by keeping athletes and other participants separate from the greater Chinese population. The app, called MY2022, was designed to bolster those precautions, enabling electronic links between the government and participants to contact trace in the event of any outbreaks. It resembles a broader system of app-based health codes used to control population movements in the event of outbreaks…
The military-grade software developed by the private Israeli company NSO was also used to target a number of people who were not suspected of involvement in a crime, including mayors, former government employees and at least one person close to a senior politician, according to the report.
“As a general policy, we do not comment on current or potential clients,” the NSO Group said in a statement published by Israeli media. “We would like to clarify that the company does not operate the systems in its customers’ possession and is not involved in their operation. The company sells its products under license and supervision for the use of security bodies and state law enforcement agencies, to prevent crime and terrorism legally, and according to court orders and local law in each country.”
Israeli police denied the allegations, saying that “all police activity in this field is done in accordance with the law, on the basis of court orders and strict work procedures…”
Israel Completes Successful Test of its Arrow 3 Advanced Air Defense System
Israel’s Ministry of Defense said it completed a pre-planned flight test of its advanced Arrow weapon system, an air defense system that confronts ballistic missiles. The test was announced on January 17. It came a day after the United Arab Emirates was the victim of an attack allegedly carried out by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. That attack reportedly involved drones and missiles. Although the two incidents are not directly related—the missile test was planned long before the attack on the UAE—the two incidents represent the rising tensions in the region and the quest to have the best air defenses available…
KOREAN PENINSULA
North Korea’s suggestion that it may resume long-range missile and nuclear tests risks renewing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but it could also signal an opening bid for potential negotiations. At a Jan. 19 Politburo meeting, North Korean officials accused the United States of violating commitments from the 2018 leaders’ summits, and said Pyongyang would “promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporarily-suspended activities.” North Korean leaders made a similar threat in January 2020
What Happened: North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from the Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang, which traveled roughly 380 kilometers east at speeds of up to Mach 5 before splashing down in the ocean, Yonhap News reported Jan. 17.
Why It Matters: North Korea tends to test missiles in batches before assessing data and preparing for new launches, and these recent launches continue that trend. January is not a normal testing period for Pyongyang, so North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be using these launches to affirm his push for self-defense in his New Year’s speech.
Background: Japan, South Korea and the United States all condemned the launches on official platforms, while Pyongyang defended its actions and blamed the United States for destabilizing the region. This is North Korea's fourth missile test in January. Previous tests also prompted international backlash, as well as U.S. sanctions on five North Koreans.
North Korea-China trade by rail to resume on Monday as border closures end
By Yew Lun Tian and Josh Smith
January 16, 20223:04 AM CSTLast Updated 3 days ago
BEIJING/SEOUL, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Chinese brokers said they expect the resumption of regular trade with North Korea as soon as Monday, after a North Korean train pulled into a Chinese border town on Sunday in the first such crossing since anti-coronavirus border lockdowns began in 2020.
"My business partner in North Korea told me on Friday that the land border will reopen to cargo freight on Jan. 17," a Chinese commodities trader in the border town of Dandong told Reuters.
"By Saturday the whole import-export community here has heard about this and people have began snapping up carriages to move their cargo over," he said.
North Korea has not officially reported any COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began in early 2020, and has imposed strict anti-virus measures, including border closures and domestic travel curbs…
RUSSIA
What to Make of Russia’s Takedown of the REvil Ransomware Gang
Russia’s operation to dismantle the REvil ransomware gang is unlikely to be a start of a broader crackdown on Russian cybercriminals, but will send a message that high-profile disruptive attacks that risk direct U.S. retaliation against Russia are off-limits. This makes it more likely that some groups will prioritize targeting less strategic (but still lucrative) U.S. organizations. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said in a Jan. 14 press release that it conducted an operation to dismantle and arrest suspected members of REvil at the request of the United States, and that the ransomware gang now ceases to exist. The timing of the FSB’s announcement — and the emphasis it places on being at the request of the United States – appears designed to showcase that Russia is a cooperative and responsible state actor amid increasing Western accusations of Russian aggression in Ukraine…
What Happened: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko disclosed the date of the upcoming Russian military exercise "Allied Resolve" in Belarus and near Russia’s border with Ukraine, The Moscow Times reported Jan. 18. The exercises will be carried out in two phases, with the initial combat readiness stage scheduled to end on Feb. 9 and the drills themselves to run from Feb. 10-20.
Why It Matters: If Russia decides to undertake major military action against Ukraine, it would likely occur around the time of these drills and in response to an escalation of the Donbas conflict as a pretext. Therefore, Moscow will likely keep tensions with the West high until well after the drills have concluded in a bid to use the threat of an invasion to force the West to cave to Russia’s demand that NATO forgo further expansion eastward.
Background: Russian troops and equipment have already begun arriving in Belarus for the readiness drills, marking the first time that units of Russia’s Eastern Military District have ever been present in Belarus.
MIDDLE EAST GENERAL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
CYBER ISSUES
NSA, CISA, FBI Issue Joint Advisory Against Russian Hackers Amid Growing Tensions
On Tuesday, three agencies issued a joint cybersecurity advisory warning relevant organizations of state-sponsored Russian cyber threats and provided federal agencies and organizations an overview of tactics employed by malicious cyber agents.
“Historically, Russian state-sponsored advanced persistent threat (APT) actors have used common but effective tactics—including spearphishing, brute force, and exploiting known vulnerabilities against accounts and networks with weak security—to gain initial access to target networks,” the advisory reads…
CISA urges US orgs to prepare for data-wiping cyberattacks
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) urges U.S. organizations to strengthen their cybersecurity defenses against data-wiping attacks recently seen targeting Ukrainian government agencies and businesses. ... Sources told cybersecurity journalist Kim Zetter that the attackers likely conducted the website defacements using the CVE-2021-32648 vulnerability in the OctoberCMS platform. The Ukraine Cyber Police say they are investigating the use of Log4j vulnerabilities and stolen credentials as another means of access to the networks and servers…
Ukraine: Cyberattack Attributed to Russia Downs Government Websites, Issues Warning
What Happened: Hackers took down more than a dozen Ukrainian government websites in an attack attributed to Russia, posting a message on the site of Ukraine's foreign ministry that said Ukrainians should "be afraid and expect the worst," The New York Times reported Jan. 14.
Why It Matters: Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security said the attack emanated from Russia and was intended to destabilize Ukraine's internal situation by sowing chaos and despair. Cybersecurity analysts largely concluded that the attack was more likely a non-state-sponsored attack conducted by patriotic Russian hackers similar to hacks on Georgian institutions in 2008, but a Russian state-sponsored attack is certainly a possibility. Similar attacks will remain likely for the foreseeable future as Russia threatens to further escalate the Donbas conflict or even invade Ukraine unless it receives additional concessions that bar NATO activities in Ukraine. More advanced Russian state-sponsored cyber operations are also possible, but these cyberattacks would most likely coincide with a large military operation against Ukraine. Such a military operation will remain possible, as Russia is likely to try to reignite the Donbas conflict over the coming weeks.
Background: Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine is continuing in full force as equipment and personnel from all four armies of Russia's Eastern Military District are being transported west from the Russian Far East to areas near the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders. Russia will soon decide on its next steps regarding the possibility of future talks with the West, its options for "military-technical responses" and military operations against Ukraine.
INTEL/ESPIONAGE/SPYING GENERAL
Danish spy chief detained over 'highly sensitive' leak
The head of Denmark’s defense intelligence service, Lars Findsen, has been placed in custody over the leak of highly classified information.
The chief of Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (FE), Lars Findsen, has been held in custody for more than a month over an apparent leak, it was revealed on Monday.
Local media said the leak involved "highly sensitive" information. It follows allegations last year that Danish intelligence colluded with the US National Security Agency (NSA) to spy on European leaders and private Danish citizens.
What do we know so far?
The news only emerged at a hearing behind closed doors at Copenhagen Magistrate's Court, when a publication ban was lifted. Findsen's name was revealed at his own request.
It emerged that four current and former employees of the two Danish intelligence services — foreign and domestic — had been detained for leaking highly sensitive information …
TERRORISM
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT
MISC
The slow fall of the nation-state’s monopoly on violence will shape future conflicts.
Lucian Staiano-Daniels
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan invited both praise and blame, but most commentators assumed this action, begun under the Trump administration and finalized under U.S. President Joe Biden, signaled a new stance for U.S. foreign policy. In sharp contrast to the previous three administrations, Biden has seemingly repudiated so-called forever wars
But this assumption rests on the belief that whether or not the United States enters forever wars is the result of discrete decisions. Becoming entangled in Iraq—if not Afghanistan—was a war of choice. But at a deeper level, structural characteristics of the current international order make forever wars highly likely. These structural characteristics are beyond the choice of any single political agent, even one as nominally powerful as the United States. The nation-state is no longer the sole agent of legitimate deadly force, if it ever was. The difference between nations and nonnational or quasi-national agents of violence are not clear…
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