Geopolitical Weekly: Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis, January 17, 2012

By George Friedman

The United States reportedly sent a letter to Iran via multiple intermediaries last week warning Tehran that any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz constituted a red line for Washington. The same week, a chemist associated with Iran's nuclear program was killed in Tehran. In Ankara, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani met with Turkish officials and has been floating hints of flexibility in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.

This week, a routine rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers is taking place in the Middle East, with the potential for three carrier strike groups to be on station in the U.S. Fifth Fleet's area of operations and a fourth carrier strike group based in Japan about a week's transit from the region. Next week, Gen. Michael Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will travel to Israel to meet with senior Israeli officials. And Iran is scheduling another set of war games in the Persian Gulf for February that will focus on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' irregular tactics for closing the Strait of Hormuz.

While tensions are escalating in the Persian Gulf, the financial crisis in Europe has continued, with downgrades in France's credit rating the latest blow. Meanwhile, China continued its struggle to maintain exports in the face of economic weakness among its major customers while inflation continued to increase the cost of Chinese exports.

Fundamental changes in how Europe and China work and their long-term consequences represent the major systemic shifts in the international system. In the more immediate future, however, the U.S.-Iranian dynamic has the most serious potential consequences for the world.

The U.S.-Iranian Dynamic

The increasing tensions in the region are not unexpected. As we have argued for some time, the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the subsequent decision to withdraw created a massive power vacuum in Iraq that Iran needed -- and was able -- to fill. Iran and Iraq fought a brutal war in the 1980s that caused about 1 million Iranian casualties, and Iran's fundamental national interest is assuring that no Iraqi regime able to threaten Iranian national security re-emerges. The U.S. invasion and withdrawal from Iraq provided Iran an opportunity to secure its western frontier, one it could not pass on.

If Iran does come to have a dominant influence in Iraq -- and I don't mean Iran turning Iraq into a satellite -- several things follow. Most important, the status of the Arabian Peninsula is subject to change. On paper, Iran has the most substantial conventional military force of any nation in the Persian Gulf. Absent outside players, power on paper is not insignificant. While technologically sophisticated, the military strength of the Arabian Peninsula nations on paper is much smaller and they lack the Iranian military's ideologically committed manpower.

But Iran's direct military power is more the backdrop than the main engine of Iranian power. It is the strength of Tehran's covert capabilities and influence that makes Iran significant. Iran's covert intelligence capability is quite good. It has spent decades building political alliances by a range of means, and not only by nefarious methods. The Iranians have worked among the Shia, but not exclusively so; they have built a network of influence among a range of classes and religious and ethnic groups. And they have systematically built alliances and relationships with significant figures to counter overt U.S. power. With U.S. military power departing Iraq, Iran's relationships become all the more valuable.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces has had a profound psychological impact on the political elites of the Persian Gulf. Since the decline of British power after World War II, the United States has been the guarantor of the Arabian Peninsula's elites and therefore of the flow of oil from the region. The foundation of that guarantee has been military power, as seen in the response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The United States still has substantial military power in the Persian Gulf, and its air and naval forces could likely cope with any overt provocation by Iran.

But that's not how the Iranians operate. For all their rhetoric, they are cautious in their policies. This does not mean they are passive. It simply means that they avoid high-risk moves. They will rely on their covert capabilities and relationships. Those relationships now exist in an environment in which many reasonable Arab leaders see a shift in the balance of power, with the United States growing weaker and less predictable in the region and Iran becoming stronger. This provides fertile soil for Iranian allies to pressure regional regimes into accommodations with Iran.

The Syrian Angle

Events in Syria compound this situation. The purported imminent collapse of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria has proven less imminent than many in the West imagined. At the same time, the isolation of the al Assad regime by the West -- and more important, by other Arab countries -- has created a situation where the regime is more dependent than ever on Iran.

Should the al Assad regime -- or the Syrian regime without al Assad -- survive, Iran would therefore enjoy tremendous influence with Syria, as well as with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The current course in Iraq coupled with the survival of an Alawite regime in Syria would create an Iranian sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean. This would represent a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power, and probably would redefine Iranian relations with the Arabian Peninsula. This is obviously in Iran's interest. It is not in the interests of the United States, however.

The United States has sought to head this off via a twofold response. Clandestinely, it has engaged in an active campaign of sabotage and assassination targeting Iran's nuclear efforts. Publicly, it has created a sanctions regime against Iran, most recently targeting Iran's oil exports. The later effort faces many challenges, however.

Japan, the No. 2 buyer of Iranian crude, has pledged its support, but has not outlined concrete plans to reduce its purchases. The Chinese and Indians -- Iran's No. 1 and 3 buyers of crude, respectively -- will continue to buy from Iran despite increased U.S. pressure. In spite of U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's visit last week, the Chinese are not prepared to impose sanctions, and the Russians are not likely to enforce sanctions even if they agreed to them. Turkey is unwilling to create a confrontation with Iran and is trying to remain a vital trade conduit for the Iranians regardless of sanctions. At the same time, while the Europeans seem prepared to participate in harder-hitting sanctions on Iranian oil, they already have delayed action on these sanctions and certainly are in no position politically or otherwise to participate in military action. The European economic crisis is at root a political crisis, so even if the Europeans could add significant military weight, which they generally lack, concerted action of any sort is unlikely.

Neither, for that matter, does the United States have the ability to do much militarily. Invading Iran is out of the question. A nation of about 70 million people, Iran's mountainous geography makes direct occupation impossible given available American forces.

Air operations against Iran are an option, but they could not be confined to nuclear facilities. Iran still doesn't have nuclear weapons, and while nuclear weapons would compound the strategic problem, the problem would still exist without them. The center of gravity of Iran's power is the relative strength of its conventional forces in the region. Absent those, Iran would be less capable of wielding covert power, as the psychological matrix would shift.

An air campaign against Iran's conventional forces would play to American military strengths, but it has two problems. First, it would be an extended campaign, one lasting months. Iran's capabilities are large and dispersed, and as seen in Desert Storm and Kosovo against weaker opponents, such operations take a long time and are not guaranteed to be effective. Second, the Iranians have counters. One, of course, is the Strait of Hormuz. The second is the use of its special operations forces and allies in and out of the region to conduct terror attacks. An extended air campaign coupled with terrorist attacks could increase distrust of American power rather than increase it among U.S. allies, to say nothing of the question of whether Washington could sustain political support in a coalition or within the United States itself.

The Covert Option

The U.S. and Israel both have covert options as well. They have networks of influence in the region and highly capable covert forces, which they have said publicly that they would use to limit Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons without resorting to overt force. We assume, though we lack evidence, that the assassination of the Iranian chemist associated with the country's nuclear program last week was either a U.S. or Israeli operation or some combination of the two. Not only did it eliminate a scientist, it also bred insecurity and morale problems among those working on the program. It also signaled the region that the United States and Israel have options inside Iran.

The U.S. desire to support an Iranian anti-government movement generally has failed. Tehran showed in 2009 that it could suppress demonstrations, and it was obvious that the demonstrators did not have the widespread support needed to overcome such repression. Though the United States has sought to support internal dissidents in Iran since 1979, it has not succeeded in producing a meaningful threat to the clerical regime. Therefore, covert operations are being aimed directly against the nuclear program with the hope that successes there might ripple through other more immediately significant sectors.

As we have long argued, the Iranians already have a "nuclear option," namely, the prospect of blockading the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 35 percent of seaborne crude and 20 percent of the world's traded oil passes daily. Doing so would hurt them, too, of course. But failing to deter an air or covert campaign, they might choose to close off the strait. Temporarily disrupting the flow of oil, even intermittently, could rapidly create a global economic crisis given the fragility of the world economy.

The United States does not want to see that. Washington will be extremely cautious in its actions unless it can act with a high degree of assurance that it can prevent such a disruption, something difficult to guarantee. It also will restrain Israel, which might have the ability to strike at a few nuclear facilities but lacks the force to completely eliminate the program much less target Iran's conventional capability and manage the consequences of that strike in the Strait of Hormuz. Only the United States could do all that, and given the possible consequences, it will be loathe to attempt it.

The United States continues, therefore, with sanctions and covert actions while Iran continues building its covert power in Iraq and in the region. Each will try to convince the region that its power will be supreme in a year. The region is skeptical of both, but will have to live with one of the two, or with an ongoing test of wills -- an unnerving prospect. Each side is seeking to magnify its power for psychological effect without crossing a red line that prompts the other to take extreme measures. Iran signals its willingness to attempt to close Hormuz and its development of nuclear weapons, but doesn't cross the line to actually closing the strait or detonating a nuclear device. The United States pressures Iran and moves forces around, but doesn't cross the red line of commencing military actions. Thus, each avoids triggering unacceptable actions by the other.

The problem for the United States is that the status quo ultimately works against it. If al Assad survives and if the situation in Iraq proceeds as it has been proceeding, then Iran is creating a reality that will define the region. The United States does not have a broad and effective coalition, and certainly not one that would rally in the event of war. It has only Israel, and Israel is as uneasy with direct military action as the United States is. It does not want to see a failed attack and it does not want to see more instability in the Arab world. For all its rhetoric, Israel has a weak hand to play. The only virtue of the American hand is that it is stronger -- but only relatively speaking.

For the United States, preventing the expansion of an Iranian sphere of influence is a primary concern. Iraq is going to be a difficult arena to stop Iran's expansion. Syria therefore is key at present. Al Assad appears weak, and his replacement by a Sunni government would limit -- but not destroy -- any Iranian sphere of influence. It would be a reversal for Iran, and the United States badly needs to apply one. But the problem is that the United States cannot be seen as the direct agent of regime change in Syria, and al Assad is not as weak as has been claimed. Even so, Syria is where the United States can work to block Iran without crossing Iran's red lines.

The normal outcome of a situation like this one, in which neither Iran nor the United States can afford to cross the other's red lines since the consequences would be too great for each, would be some sort of negotiation toward a longer-term accommodation. Ideology aside -- and the United States negotiating with the "Axis of Evil" or Iran with the "Great Satan" would be tough sells to their respective domestic audiences -- the problem with this is that it is difficult to see what each has to offer the other. What Iran wants -- a dominant position in the region and a redefinition of how oil revenues are allocated and distributed -- would make the United States dependent on Iran. What the United States wants -- an Iran that does not build a sphere of influence, but instead remains within its borders -- would cost Iran a historic opportunity to assert its longstanding claims.

We find ourselves in a situation in which neither side wants to force the other into extreme steps and neither side is in a position to enter into broader accommodations. And that's what makes the situation dangerous. When fundamental issues are at stake, each side is in a position to profoundly harm the other if pressed, and neither side is in a position to negotiate a broad settlement, a long game of chess ensues. And in that game of chess, the possibilities of miscalculation, of a bluff that the other side mistakes for an action, are very real.

Europe and China are redefining the way the world works. But kingdoms run on oil, as someone once said, and a lot of oil comes through Hormuz. Iran may or may not be able to close the strait, and that reshapes Europe and China. The New Year thus begins where we expected: at the Strait of Hormuz.

C: STRATFOR.COM

Joint Force 2020

When I was a kid in the 70s one of the Saturday morning cartoons I enjoyed was Sealab 2020. Now we have Joint Force 2020. What do they have in common you ask. They are both works of fiction, although Hanna Barbara did a better job of selling it's story.

My good friend Chris W, a retired Army Colonel sent the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance with a forwarded comment of another colonel:

Contains every buzzword congealed into a sizeable mound of crap or am I being to harsh?

I made a comment to Chris about his poor English (to or too) but we are talking an infantry officer here!

The entire 16 page piece is nothing but propaganda but I found this really interesting.

...Our defense efforts in the Middle East will be aimed at countering violent extremists and destabilizing threats, as well as upholding our commitment to allies and partner states. Of particular concern are the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). U.S. policy will emphasize Gulf security, in collaboration with Gulf Cooperation Council countries when appropriate, to prevent Iran’’s development of a nuclear weapon
capability and counter its destabilizing policies. The United States will do this while standing up for Israel’’s security and a comprehensive Middle East peace. To support these objectives, the United States will continue to place a premium on U.S. and allied militarypresence in –– and support of –– partner nations in and around this region...

Countering violent extremists? From the administration that led the Muslin Brotherhood in taking Egypt and the overthrow of an ally for almost 30 years. Have they really been that concerned about the Iranians and their expansion. In 2009 their was an uprising of people in Iran against the regime and for some reason that wasn't part of people power or whatever tripe is popular this week. That Arab Spring died a terrible death and for some reason the administration was not concerned.

There is an old saying about being an American advisory can be bad but to be an ally can be deadly. Ask Hosea Mubarak.

Philadelphia's mayor, children and other issues of the day

Philadelphia, City of Brotherly Love, has done it again. Three teenagers killed on the street. But the Mayor is saying something and it's something the NAACP, etc don't like. It's called the truth.

Nutter Fumes After 3 Philadelphia Teens Killed In Apparent Reprisal Shooting « CBS Philly

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Following a shooting Tuesday night in the Juniata section of the city that left three teens dead, Mayor Michael Nutter had strong words for the shooter, calling him “a dog.”

The outraged mayor also had strong words for the parents of Philadelphia’s youth, telling them “not to act like idiots and a–holes.”

While Nutter says he is gratified about the quick arrest in the multiple shooting, he is fuming that the victims were out on Tuesday night apparently looking for trouble. And he blames their parents.

“Seven young people, somewhere between 14 and 16 years old, on a Tuesday night, a school night, are out in a car going to somewhere to have a fight with some other teenager. That is completely insane, it is irresponsible. Parents have to know where their children are and what they are doing,” the mayor said.

“Their little butts should have either been in bed, getting ready for bed, or doing some homework,” Nutter added. “Not out in a car, not in some other neighborhood, and not up to this kind of nonsense. I’m not your mom and I’m not your dad. We cannot completely legislate, or by policy, make people responsible for their children....”

...“The least you can do is know where the hell your kids are, in the daytime, in the nighttime, or at any time during the week or on the weekends. That’s the minimum we should ask and expect from our parents. You want to have kids? Take care of them.”

Right on Mayor Nutter, right on. You may remember Mayor Nutter from a few months ago talking about flash mobs.

PHILADELPHIA — Mayor Michael A. Nutter, telling marauding black youths “you have damaged your own race,” imposed a tougher curfew Monday in response to the latest “flash mob” — spontaneous groups of teens who attack people at random on the streets of the city’s tourist and fashionable shopping districts.

“Take those God-darn hoodies down, especially in the summer,” Mr. Nutter, the city’s third black mayor, said in an angry lecture aimed at black teens. “Pull your pants up and buy a belt ‘cause no one wants to see your underwear or the crack of your butt.”

“If you walk into somebody’s office with your hair uncombed and a pick in the back, and your shoes untied, and your pants half down, tattoos up and down your arms and on your neck, and you wonder why somebody won’t hire you? They don’t hire you ‘cause you look like you’re crazy,” the mayor said. “You have damaged your own race.”

Mr Mayor I agree with everything you say. Parents are not raising their children because they have not been raised by adults themselves. How many teenagers in the hood have children and are themselves children of teenagers. You have 30 somethings (in some cases late 20s) being grandparents.

You can thank many in this debacle of society. The left that has said since the early 60's "Don't worry, we have a committee to raise your children. Guys, impregnate as many females as you want, you're not responsible. We got it covered. You don't have to grow up, just act like an animal in the wild." I've often said Lyndon Johnson is the worst president America has ever had and when asked why my first answer is usually "I'll give you fifty eight thousand reasons, their names are on a wall in Washington DC." But then I'll go into how LBJ (and the leftist in the Congress that have seized control of the Democratic Party in the 60s and held it since) put in the welfare state with his Great Society. If ever their was an oxymoron that is it, worse than Military Intelligence or Rap Music. It has torn minority families, specifically the black family apart.

When you tell people you have no responsibility for you own life or your children and pay you not to work that lead to sloth and destroys their self esteem, that crap educrats say not withstanding. Now you get generations living in hovels and you tell them "This is as good as it gets because someone is holding you down" (Hello NAACP, The Race, excuse me, La Raza, Urban League, etc) more and more accept this is it. And they have.

Want a classic example, fifteen children by three men, the father of ten is in jail:



And the tag line, "Somebody needs to be held accountable, and they need to pay,” she said."

Another example of the decay of a society in from Fox television. You know, the right wing conservative Fox television. A new show called I Hate My Teenage Daughter about two former geeks with teenage girls just like the kids that used to pick on them. I have never seen an episode but one catch line from a commercial stuck with me. The mother ask her daughter who is completely ignoring her parent, "Can't we just go back to being best friends?" The girl answers her without stopping her testing on the cell phone, looking at her mother or stopping her walk from her "We were never friends mom." The mother looked crushed.

Excuse me woman, first of all you are not her friend. You are her mother. Your job is to raise her to be an adult and sometimes you gotta piss her off. Like when telling her life ain't fair, stop complaining if you don't get everything handed to you. If you want it, go work for it. Not to mention mom you need to slap your little girl for walking away from you as you are talking to her and take that cell phone away. That is disrespect to the parent. Then again CPS may call that child abuse these days.

A few weeks ago I was at the DA's office and I got into a discussion with one of the clerks, a 50 something black female. The lady discussed how she was concerned her granddaughter (6 years old as I recall) was not being disciplined by her son. I recounted how more than once I would get called to fights in the hood where a 30 something mother was in a fight with her 16 year old daughter and mom was saying how her girl was going out of hand, etc. And (again) the thought going through my head was simple. "Woman, the problem is not you trying to discipline your daughter at 16. The problem is you didn't kick her ass at 6! You think she will respect you now after a lifetime of disrespect"

The point of this rant? We have to get back to parents raising their children, instilling in children a sense of responsibility for their lives. Girls have some self respect for yourselves and get an education and marry a good man before you have a family. Boys you are more than a "Baby daddy". If that's all you are you're a sack of s@#$ and waste of sperm and you will grow to nothing. Grow up, meet the right woman, marry her and have a family. Support yourselves and instill in them those same values. I would say it's amazing how this works but it's not. Wherever liberalism hasn't infected it's the norm.

I look at what has happened to the poor in this country and I shutter. But hopefully though the efforts of many good people (churches, etc) and the efforts of real leaders and against the efforts of race baiting poverty pimps we can start to reverse this. If not, then God help the republic.

Again, a simple question. Is there a market for this?

Then again bureaucracy is not really concerned with this.

Detroit unsure over the future of green cars

The US auto industry remains unsold over the future of "green cars" such as electrics and hybrids, as carmakers struggle with the first steps in a market most agree shows promise over the long term.

Automakers wheeled out a variety of new hybrids and plug-in electrics at the annual Detroit auto show this week, touting their great energy savings along with new, freshened designs.

But despite that apparent commitment, behind the scenes, the manufacturers remain split between doubts and optimism over their potential.

Ten years after the Toyota Prius hybrid swept into the market, only about three percent of all cars sold in the United States are electric or gas-electric hybrids, said David Cole, director of the Center for Automotive Research.

"Initially there was probably some excessive exuberance about the green auto," he told AFP.

"But the economics are not attractive yet for the average consumer."

Nissan has sold only 9,700 of its all-electric Leaf in the US market, and General Motors has sold just 8,000 of its rechargeable hybrid the Volt since its launch at the end of 2010, below the targeted 10,000.

The Volt became the object of scrutiny in recent weeks after tests by US authorities saw batteries in three cars catch fire.

Detroit's investment in hybrids and electrics have picked up pace in recent years under prodding and support by the government, said Cole.

The government has set tight goals for companies to boost fuel economy across their entire range of cars and trucks, and many are turning to hybrids and electrics to meet the goals...

Translation, no one wants this POS and the only way it will be economically viable is if we force people to buy them. In other words make gas or diesel powered cars too expensive to operate. Is there an ulterior motive to deliberately driving up oil cost there? Na, no way right.

Security Weekly: Armed UAV Operations 10 Years On, January 12, 2012

One of the most iconic images of the American-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- as well as global U.S. counterterrorism efforts -- has been the armed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), specifically the MQ-1 "Predator" and the MQ-9 "Reaper." Unarmed RQ-1 Predators (which first flew in 1994) were flying over Afghanistan well before the 9/11 attacks. Less than a month after the attacks, an armed variant already in development was deployed for the first time.

In the decade since, the Predator has clocked more than a million flight hours. And while U.S. Air Force procurement ceased in early 2011 -- with more than 250 airframes purchased -- the follow-on MQ-9 Reaper has already been procured in numbers and production continues. Predators and Reapers continue to be employed in a broad spectrum of roles, including close air support (CAS), when forward air controllers communicate with UAV operators to release ordnance with friendly troops in the vicinity (CAS is one of the more challenging missions even for manned aircraft because of the heightened risk of friendly casualties). Officially designated "armed, multi-mission, medium-altitude, long endurance, remotely piloted aircraft," the second to last distinction is the Predator and Reaper's principal value: the ability to loiter for extended periods, in some cases for more than 24 hours.

This ability affords unprecedented situational awareness and physical presence over the battlefield. The implications of this are still being understood, but it is clear that it allows, for example, the sustained and constant monitoring of main supply routes for attempts to emplace improvised explosive devices (IEDs) or the ability to establish a more sophisticated understanding of high-value targets' living patterns. In addition, live, full-motion video for ground controllers is available to lower and lower echelons to an unprecedented degree.

As the procurement of Predators and Reapers and the training of operators accelerated -- particularly under the tenure of former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, beginning in 2006 -- the number of UAV "orbits" skyrocketed (an orbit is a single, continuous presence requiring more than one UAV airframe per orbit). There are now more than 50 such orbits in the U.S. Central Command area of operations alone (counting several maintained by the larger, unarmed RQ-4 "Global Hawk"). The U.S. Air Force expects to be capable of maintaining 65 orbits globally by 2013, with the combined total of flight hours for Predator and Reaper operations reaching about 2 million around the same time. In 2005, UAVs made up about 5 percent of the military aircraft fleet. They have since grown to 30 percent, though most are small, hand-launched and unarmed tactical UAVs.

The Counterterrorism Value
One of the most notable uses of the Predator and Reaper has been in the counterterrorism role, both as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platform and as an on-call strike platform. These armed UAVs are operated both by the U.S. Air Force and, in some cases (as with operations conducted over Pakistan), the CIA. Even before the 9/11 attacks, the armed Predator then in development was being considered as a means not only of keeping tabs on Osama bin Laden but also of killing him. Since then, armed UAVs have proved their worth both in the offensive strike role against specific targets and as a means of maintaining a constant level of threat.

The value of the counterterrorism ISR that can be collected by large UAVs alone is limited since so much depends on how and where they are deployed and what they are looking for. This mission requires not only sophisticated signals but also actionable human intelligence. But as a front-line element of a larger, integrated collection strategy, the armed UAV has proved to be a viable and enduring element of the U.S. counterterrorism strategy worldwide.

The ability to loiter is central and has a value far beyond the physical capabilities of a single airframe in a specific orbit. Operating higher than helicopters and with a lower signature than manned, jet-powered fighter aircraft, the UAV is neither visibly or audibly obvious (though the degree of inconspicuousness depends on, among other things, weather and altitude). Because UAVs are so discreet, potential targets must work under the assumption that an armed UAV is orbiting within striking distance at all times.

Such a constant threat can place considerable psychological pressure on the prey, even when the predator is large and loud. During the two battles of Fallujah, Iraq, in April and November of 2004, AC-130 gunships proved particularly devastating for insurgents pinned in certain quadrants of the city, but AC-130s were limited in number and availability. When it was not possible to keep an AC-130 on station at night (in order to keep the insurgents' heads down), unarmed C-130 transports were flown in the same orbits at altitudes where the distinctive sound of a C-130 could be clearly discerned on the ground, thus maintaining the perception of a possible AC-130 reprisal against any insurgent offensive.

Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the psychological and operational impact of this tactic on a group that experiences successful strikes on its members, even if the strikes are conducted only rarely. Counterterrorism targets in areas where UAVs are known to operate must work under tight communications discipline and constraints, since having their cellular or satellite phone conversations tapped risks not only penetration of communications but immediate and potentially lethal attacks.

The UAV threat was hardly the only factor, but consider how Osama bin Laden's communiques declined from comparatively regular and timely videos to rare audiotapes. In 2001, bin Laden was operating with immense freedom of maneuver and impunity despite the manhunt already under way for him. That situation changed even as he fled to Pakistan, and the combination of aggressive signals as well as UAV- and space-based ISR efforts further constrained his operational bandwidth and relevance as he was forced to focus more and more on his own personal survival.

The UAV threat affects not only the targeted individuals themselves but also their entire organizations. When the failure to adhere to security protocols can immediately yield lethal results, the natural response is to constrict communications and cease contact with untrusted allies, affiliates and subordinates. When the minutiae of security protocols start to matter, the standard for having full faith, trust and confidence among those belonging to or connected with a terrorist organization become much higher. And the more that organization's survival is at stake, the more it must focus on survival, thereby reducing its capacity to engage in ambitious operations. On a deeper level, there is also the value of sowing distrust and paranoia within an organization. This has the same ultimate effect of increasing internal distrust and thereby undermining the spare capacity for the pursuit of larger, external objectives.

The Evolving Geography
While armed Predators first operated in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater, it was the darkest days of the Iraq War, at the height of the violence there from 2005 to 2007, that saw the strongest demand for them. As the main effort shifted from Iraq to Afghanistan, UAV operations began to shift with them. While UAVs will remain in high demand in Afghanistan even as the drawdown of forces continues there in 2012, the end of armed UAV operations in Iraq and the continued expansion of the U.S. Air Force's Reaper fleet mean that considerable bandwidth is being freed up for operations in other parts of the world. (In Iraq, some UAVs may continue to be operated over northern Kurdish areas in coordination with Turkey, and some private security contractors are operating a small fleet of unarmed UAVs as part of protection efforts in coordination with the U.S. State Department's Diplomatic Security Service.)

There are obvious diplomatic and operational limitations to the employment of armed UAVs. Diplomatically, however, they also have demonstrated some value as an intermediate step between purely clandestine operations run by the CIA and the overt deployment of uniformed personnel and manned aircraft. Operationally, while Predators and Reapers lack the sort of low-observability profile of the RQ-170 (one of which was lost over Iran in 2011), UAVs lack pilots and pose no risk of human personnel being taken captive. A UAV that crashes in Iran has far fewer political ramifications than a piloted aircraft, making its deployment an easier decision for political leaders.

Indeed, the last decade has seen the maturation of the armed UAV, including its underlying architecture and doctrines. And while more than 50 Predators and Reapers have been lost in Iraq and Afghanistan and in training over the past decade, the aircraft are now essentially as safe and reliable as a manned F-16C/D but far cheaper to procure, maintain and operate. And over the next 10 years, the Pentagon plans to grow its UAV fleet about 35 percent. The U.S. Air Force plans to buy 288 more Reapers -- 48 per year from now through 2016 -- and money for UAVs has remained largely untouched even as budget cuts intensify at the Pentagon.

So while armed UAVs are merely one tool of a much broader and more sophisticated counterterrorism strategy, they can be expected to be valuable for the foreseeable future, and employed in areas of the world beyond Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen (even along the U.S.-Mexico border in an unarmed role for border patrol and counternarcotics missions). And despite an enormous breach in U.S.-Pakistani relations following the deaths of two dozen Pakistani military personnel in a cross-border incident in November and the consequent ejection of the CIA from Shamsi airfield in Pakistan (from which it had operated armed UAVs since October 2001), existing UAV orbits have been largely maintained. On Jan. 10, the first strike on Pakistani territory since November took place in North Waziristan agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.>

Armed UAV Operations 10 Years On: Copyright STRATFOR

Officer Down

Detective Andrew F. Faggio
New Haven Connecticut Police Department
End of Watch: Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Age: 46
Tour: 14 years

Detective Andrew Faggio succumbed to injuries sustained in an automobile accident on January 31, 2003, while en route to a stakeout assignment at approximately 4:00 am.

He was cresting a hill on Durham Road, in Madison, when he encountered an oncoming vehicle in his travel lane. He swerved to avoid striking the vehicle, but his car spun around and struck a tree. Detective Faggio suffered severe head injuries and slipped into a coma, from which he never emerged.

Detective Faggio had served with the New Haven Police Department for 14 years at the time of the crash. He is survived by his wife and two children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Latest of Tebow...

I found this rather interesting. Many politicians make bets on games with the politicians of the other city/state and sometimes setting the bet is funny. Now here is the latest.

Mayor Makes Good On Bronco Bet, “Tebows” « CBS Pittsburgh

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) — Is Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl getting caught up in the Internet craze inspired by Denver Broncos’ Quarterback Tim Tebow? No, he’s just making good on a bet.

Prior to the Steelers’ season ending overtime loss to the Broncos on Sunday, Ravenstahl made a friendly playoff wager with his counterpart in Denver, Mayor Michael Hancock...

...Since the Broncos bested the black and gold, Ravenstahl made good on the bet by taking a knee in Roberto Clemente Memorial Park on the North Shore this morning...

Mr Mayor, thank you for being a good sport on this and setting your bet. I doubt a prayer will harm you. But I found this part of an objective news article to be interesting

...As part of the deal, Ravenstahl agreed to don a Broncos jersey and strike the infamous prayerful pose for a picture...

I wonder, why is a Christian kneeling and praying to Jesus Christ so radical? I looked up the definition of infamous and it comes back as:

Definition of INFAMOUS

1: having a reputation of the worst kind : notoriously evil
2: causing or bringing infamy : disgraceful
3: convicted of an offense bringing infamy

Gee CBS News, is a man praying publicly "having a reputation of the worst kind.." Will you call muslims praying "infamous"? I don't see them causing problems, then again I don't' see Tebow doing it.

Now this is what I call home security

Thanks Linda T for the link!

Occupy DC DC and rats.....

Rats in DC and Occupy DC.

City: Rat population has ‘exploded’ around Occupy D.C. camps

The rat population around the two Occupy D.C. camps at McPherson Square and Freedom Plaza has “exploded”since protesters began their vigil in October, according to Mohammad N. Akhter, the director of the District’s Department of Health.

Akhter said in an interview Monday that city health inspectors have seen rats running openly through both camps and spotted numerous new burrows and nests underneath hay-stuffed pallets occupiers are using for beds. Both campsites had working kitchens for weeks until last week, but protesters at McPherson Square voluntarily closed down theirs after health inspectors pointed out unsanitary conditions during an informal monitoring visit.

Akhter said his concerns about the health and safety at the camps prompted him to order a city-wide review of conditions there, including input from health inspectors, mental health professionals, experts on the homeless and others. He is reviewing their findings this week...

..., who is originally from Pakistan and has worked for the District government for over 20 years, said that the situation in the two parks is reminiscent of refu­gee camps he has toured overseas in the Middle East and Africa during his public health career. He said he fears disaster could strike during a severe winter storm.

“Going down to these camps, it’s no different than refu­gee camps,” Akhter said. “People are living in very primitive conditions and they’re doing it by choice. They are very brave and thoughtful people, but my concern is that they should also take care of themselves. When the weather goes bad suddenly we’re watching a tragedy unfold in the middle of Washington, D.C. ”

I don't know how many of you have seen Washington DC but the city is a Third World nation surrounding our capital and DC is a national disgrace. I would agree with Mr Akhter but DC was Lower Slovia a long time before B Hussein Obama was voting "Present" in the Illinios legislature. Liberals just have brought it out more openly.

Hey Obamaites, how is that change working out for you.

I'm shocked, shocked to find gambling going on here

Kinda reminds me of a certain other video from a few years ago but a supposedly objective news source is pushing it. In other words it's BS and hopefully the paper is sued out of existence.

NY cops seek legal action for 'planting evidence' video
Attorneys who specialize in defamation are being sought after a viral video threatened the integrity of Utica police officers

UTICA, N.Y. — The Utica Police Department PBA and the Utica Police Union are consulting with attorneys who specialize in defamation after a newspaper claimed that a heavily edited viral video shows officers planting evidence.

The Utica Phoenix posted a correction and an apology after an edited video surfaced that appeared to show officers placed drugs in the hands of a suspect after a traffic stop, but publisher Cassandra Harris-Lockwood, declined to say she was sorry, according to WKTV. The damage, however, is already done, said the union president — apologies and corrections aside.

"If she apologizes to the officers, it's still out there. These officers, some of their integrity and credibility has somewhat been diminished," UPD PBA President Dominick Nitti said.

Police recently released the full 30 minute video to show all of the circumstances surrounding the incident after the black community, crying racism, said the edited one minute, 40-second snippet — titled "UPD Caught on Tape" — shows an officer place a baggie on the car of a driver he'd just pulled over...

..."It's just irresponsible journalism on the part of the Phoenix, that's the main thing there and us as a union, we're going to protect our members so legal action will be taken against the Phoenix," Nitti said.

Mr Nitti, irresponsible and journalism are synonymous and if you expected anything but yellow journalism from current media you do need your head examined.

If you want to see the doctored video, go here.



If you want to see what really happened watch this. At 515 you will see the search of the driver and a mini-drug store pulled from the man's coat. Later (around 1100) the passenger is searched and narcotics are found on her. But the one minute propaganda piece cut that out and will only show the officer putting the evidence inside the car. In other words the lied about the officers. If the Phoenix didn't vet this information they are guilty of liable and I hope the union takes them for all they got.

Now this is cool

And only takes a minute to do.

Med Center building destroyed in seconds
Naheeda Sayeeduddin, HOUSTON CHRONICLE Sunday, January 8, 2012

It took 17 seconds Sunday morning for the first skyscraper built outside of downtown Houston to turn into a pile of dust and rubble.

The demolition process of the 20-story structure at 1100 Holcombe began nearly two years ago when the last M.D. Anderson employees moved out of the building that opened in 1952 as the regional headquarters of Prudential Insurance Co.

After more than two decades it became office space for the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, which officially renamed it the Houston Main Building in 1980.

"In its glory days, it was an impressive building, but it was time for it to come down," said Sarah Watson, a spokeswoman for M.D. Anderson....

Demolition crews placed 1,250 copper-clad explosives in the columns, said Jim Santoro, project coordinator for Controlled Demolition. Crews reinforced certain structures in the east end of the building so that the structure would fall away from the adjacent MD Anderson's Mays Clinic.

...In its last hours -the implosion was scheduled for 7:52 a.m. - the building sat with its insides stripped and windows gutted. A blinking light on the roof was the only sign of life remaining in the 500,000-square-foot structure.

...Dense early morning fog delayed the implosion by more than three hours.

The light stopped blinking at 10:30 a.m. The first of the loud bangs were finally heard at 11:15 a.m....

Something else from DC you can't believe!

D.C. homicides drop by half in last decade - Washington Times

The number of homicides in the District declined in 2011 for the third straight year, a downward trend that has seen deadly violence in the city drop by more than half from just a decade ago.

Police reported 109 homicides last year, the lowest total in the city since 1963 and an 18 percent decrease from the 132 killings in 2010. Officials say community cooperation and good detective work are factors in the declines, which with each passing year seem to build on historic reductions.

The District's 2011 figure represents fewer than half the 232 homicides recorded 10 years ago in 2001, which itself was a decrease by more than half from the 479 killings two decades ago in 1991, when gang battles fueled by crack cocaine and automatic weapons drove the levels of violence to record highs....

My ass. They are moving the bodies out of the district!

All I can say is whatever gets him the hell out of the White House.

Mexican Grand Warlock predicts Obama loss in 2012

Mexico's Grand Warlock predicted US President Barack Obama would fail to win re-election and two more Latin American leaders would be diagnosed with cancer, in a traditional New Year's forecast Tuesday.

The Grand Warlock, or "Brujo Mayor" in Spanish, leads a Mexican tradition of "brujeria" or sorcery centered in the southeastern city of Catemaco.

The Grand Warlock, also known as Antonio Vazquez, said that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who claims to have beaten an unspecified cancer, would have a "terrible relapse."

Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, former Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguay's Fernando Lugo have been diagnosed with cancer in recent years.

...Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled for more than 70 years to 2000, would return to power with its candidate Enrique Pena Nieto winning the presidency in July, according to Vazquez, who bases his predictions on tarot card readings and observations of the stars.

Vazquez, who claims to have a 75-80 percent accuracy rate, last year said the euro would weaken and recession would return to developed economies but he also predicted, incorrectly, that a Latin American leader would be assassinated.

Movies, entertainment, politics and a serious question. Is John Goodman this hard up for cash?

Earlier this year I posted on an article on the problems with Hollywood. In a word, they are making high cost crap no one wants to watch and are shocked when no one spends 10-20 bucks a ticket to watch it. It reminded me of this.

In late October I was looking at a Red Box and saw this video for rent.

With a catch phrase of Love Thy Neighbor and this modern day Daisy Duke with an AK-47 I had to check this out. No I didn't waste a buck on it but I did check it out at IMDb. From the plot summary,

Set in Middle America, a group of teens receive an online invitation for sex, though they soon encounter fundamentalists with a much more sinister agenda.

I watched the trailer showing the boys being held hostage in a small church with one of them being wrapped in clear plastic. I gather from the preview John Goodman is the local law enforcement chief (can't tell if he's a sheriff or whatever) but there is a Branch Davidian shootout with lots of bullets fired from magazines that never empty.

Now with a name like Red State, set in Middle America and the chief antagonist is a wacked out minister it's not much of a leap that this is an insult to Middle America. So of course this will be something Hollywood would want to produce. But I go back to my comment about America wanting to buy. I checked out the production cost, etc on this crap from the IMDb page. With a production cost of four million they got an opening weekend of 204205 from one screen. I'd love to know where. I take it it was not in Middle America. They had more success overseas in England, Australia and Turkey.

So a moron makes a movie that insults the movie buying public is made and doesn't even break even. You would think the geniuses in the movie industry would have figured it but no. But no, I have no doubt more propaganda like this is coming out in the future.  Hollywood will never learn.   Or as one of the movie pics from the web site put's America's reaction to this well:

And I'll chip in. John, if your this hard up for work you're taking crap like this we would have helped man. I think a lot of us would throw you a few bucks until you get something better like Rosanne!

Officer Down

Deputy Sheriff William Coleman
Maricopa County Arizona Sheriff's Office,
End of Watch: Sunday, January 8, 2012
Age: 50
Tour: 20 years
Badge # 977

Deputy Sheriff William Coleman was shot and killed while responding to a burglary call in Anthem at approximately 4:15 am.

As he and another deputy arrived at the scene they encountered a male subject inside of a van at a medical building near the intersection of Anthem Way and Gavilan Peak Parkway. As they attempted to make contact with the man he opened fire on them with a rifle, striking Deputy Coleman below his vest. The suspect was killed by return gunfire from other deputies.

Deputy Coleman was transported to John C. Lincoln Deer Valley Hospital where he succumbed to his wounds.

Deputy Coleman had served with the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office for 20 years. He is survived by his wife and several children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Franky my dear, I don't give a damn

He did right!

Franky likes weed!

Court to hear case of Franky the drug dog - Florida Wires - MiamiHerald.com

MIAMI — In a case closely watched by law enforcement nationwide, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed Friday to decide whether a Florida police dog's sniff outside the front door of a house with a marijuana growing operation is an illegal search.

Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi wants the justices to reverse a state Supreme Court decision that the K-9's sniff runs afoul of the Fourth Amendment protection against illegal search and seizure. Eighteen states and the territory of Guam have filed a brief in support of Bondi's position, concerned that other state courts might start issuing similar decisions...

...The case arose from the December 2006 arrest of Joelis Jardines at a Miami-area house where 179 marijuana plants were confiscated. Miami-Dade Police Department officers obtained a search warrant after one of their dogs, a chocolate Lab named Franky, detected the odor of pot from outside the front door.

The trial judge threw out the evidence, agreeing with Jardines' attorney that the dog's sniff was an unconstitutional intrusion into the home. An appeals court reversed that ruling, but the state Supreme Court sided in April with the original judge.

The U.S. Supreme Court has previously ruled that a home is entitled to greater privacy than a car or a public place such as an airport when it comes to police use of K-9s to find illegal substances. But state of Florida lawyers and many legal experts say a dog's sniff isn't a violation because it only detects illegal activity not entitled to privacy...

Not knowing full details on the story (just what is in this article) I really can't make a full comment on this. I tend to agree a man has greater expedition of privacy in his home than out in public. However I get the impression the homeowner was a suspect before Franky showed up. If they knocked on the door and Franky went ape, as long as they didn't force their way into the house and left when he asked I see no problem with it. This is not just having a dog going to every door and sniffing if I get this right. But we'll see how Florida v. Jardines plays out.

Recess appointments among other things

Am I the only one who is missing this.

Gracchus: You and I have a tendency towards corpulence. Corpulence makes a man reasonable, pleasant and phlegmatic. Have you noticed the nastiest of tyrants are invariably thin?

I won't add much to what has been said about B Hussein Obama flouting the Constitution. Should anyone be surprised. He and his ilk have seen the Constitution, freedom and liberty as something that interferes with their plans for this country. Anyone who had any questions of this should have had this answered by his own words from 2001:

If you look at the victories and failures of the civil rights movement and its litigation strategy in the court. I think where it succeeded was to invest formal rights in previously dispossessed people, so that now I would have the right to vote. I would now be able to sit at the lunch counter and order as long as I could pay for it I’d be o.k. But, the Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth, and of more basic issues such as political and economic justice in society. To that extent, as radical as I think people try to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn’t that radical. It didn’t break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution, at least as its been interpreted and Warren Court interpreted in the same way, that generally the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties. Says what the states can’t do to you. Says what the Federal government can’t do to you, but doesn’t say what the Federal government or State government must do on your behalf, and that hasn’t shifted and one of the, I think, tragedies of the civil rights movement was, um, because the civil rights movement became so court focused I think there was a tendancy to lose track of the political and community organizing and activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalition of powers through which you bring about redistributive change. In some ways we still suffer from that.

Strange...not that I'm paranoid but for some reason Youtube has taken down the video of him saying it. Than again even paranoids have enemies.

Here is a video with the full audio and here is a video of the critical parts



Let's see, blatant disregard of the Constitution by himself and his allies in the Congress. Seizure of multiple industries. Control of business by unaccountable bureaucracies and I recall that idiot Thomas Friedman who loves China dreams of Obama as a dictator for a day.

God help us if he wins reelection. Hell, for that matter if he's defeated. Think of what he will do in the ten weeks from election night till he's out of office.

Spartacus (the real movie with Kirk Douglas) has a great theme of liberty that has come again. From a discussion between Crassus (Lawrence Olivier) and his senatorial rival Gracchus (Charles Laughton)

Crassus: My election as fiirst consul, command of all the legions of ltaly and the abolition of senatorial authority over the courts.

Gracchus: Dictatorship.

Crassus: Order. Advise me if my terms are acceptable.

Gracchus: I can tell you now. They're unacceptable.

Crassus: Yes, I know. For the present perhaps, but times change, and so does the senate. When that day comes, I shall be ready.

American made a critical mistake in 2008 and we elected a dictator who has absolute contempt for the country he is president of. I don't have faith the morons running the Republican Party who are intent of nominating an Obama light with less personality has any idea of what is needed. Ripping out Obamacare by the weeds to begin with. I doubt the author of Romneycare realizes that.

God help the Republic.

PS: Examples of the wisdom of Craccus's statement on nasty dictators.

Officer Down

Agent Jared Francom
Ogden Utah Police Department
End of Watch: Thursday, January 5, 2012
Tour: 7 years
Incident Date: 1/4/2012

Agent Jared Francom was shot and killed while serving a drug-related search warrant at an Ogden residence on Jackson Avenue around 8:40 pm.

As members of the task force approached the home the suspect opened fire on them. After firing at the officers, the suspect fled to a shed near the home and barricaded himself inside. He was shot and wounded by other responding officers before being taken into custody.

Three other members of the Ogden Police Department, a member of the Weber County Sheriff's Office, and a member of the Roy Police Department were also wounded in the shooting. Agent Francom suffered a fatal wound in the shooting and was pronounced dead shortly after midnight.

Agent Francom had served with the Ogden Police Department for seven years and was assigned to the Weber-Morgan Narcotics Strike Force. He is survived by his wife and two young children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

I'll say it....kill it before it grows...

Figuratively that is.

Like a storm of locus it has returned. A Kennedy wants to be in Congress.

Kennedy III explores a run for Frank’s seat


Edward M. Kennedy’s death in 2009 and his son Patrick’s retirement from Congress prompted speculation that, with no other family member left in a high profile public office, the Kennedy legacy had run its course. But 31-year-old Joseph P. Kennedy III may prove them wrong.


Kennedy, son of the former congressman and grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, has taken the first official steps toward launching a congressional run to replace retiring Democrat Barney Frank.


He has created an exploratory committee and announced his resignation from his job as a prosecutor in the Middlesex district attorney’s office.


Senior Democratic sources who have talked to Kennedy said that he has already concluded that he will run for the Democratic nomination to represent the redrawn Newton and Brookline-based district that extends to parts of Fall River, though Kennedy said he will make a decision about entering the race in the coming weeks.

I do not wish ill of the man but he should be no where near any real power. He is trying to reestablish a beach head of a political dynasty founded the the wealth of a bootlegger who bought the 1960 presidential election. Jack Kennedy went in unprepared for what he would face and that led to the Bay of Pigs. But more than that his selection of Lyndon Johnson unintentionally led to his LBJ presidency, the worse administration in the history of the republic (IMHO).

A bit of a tear but I'm no fan of the Kennedy clan. They just need to go away to the non-profit industry and complaint about a snail or something else more useful. The family business in not politics but power. And we need to insure that business is closed.

How Hollyweird can get it's head out of it's forth point of contact

Last month Beth and I had a date night and we did something very rare. We went to the movies. The Muppets. Hey it's not Lawrence Olivier doing Henry V but it's fun stuff from our childhood. And the place was packed with middle aged people with their children and it was fun to watch. As we listened to "It's time to play the music, It's time to light the lights, It's time to meet the Muppets on the Muppet Show tonight!" it was really funny. The middle aged people were singing and moving to the beat and their children were extremely embarrassed. It was one of the better parts of the evening.

But movies are rare and far between for me now. I used to go to two or three movies a month. Now it's more like two to three a year. There are a lot of good issues this article brings up for the decline of Hollywood and I'll add to them at the end.

Top 10 Ways Hollywood Can Win Its Audience Back

by John Nolte

Hollywood is like a child, a spoiled child you can’t help loving but desperately want to see do and be better. Hollywood can be cruel and petulant, small and bigoted, hateful and depraved. But every once in a while you see what it COULD be — the talent, the charm, and the ability to inspire and create joy. So we keep coming back to them in the hope that if and when Hollywood ever grows up, they will be what they could be — what they once were, so many years ago.

Today, our spoiled child is in trouble and with only the best of intentions I’m going to see if I can’t take the sting out of the boo-boo with the best advice I can offer.

1. Hollywood Needs Movie Stars, Not Brands

You can trace most of Hollywood’s problems back to the death of the movie star. At first, the industry was thrilled with this development. No movie star meant no big payday, no ego, and none of the baggage too many stahs carry with them. The industry also found that, at least for a while, they could get away with this. Audiences were still packing theatres to see pre-packaged brands developed from high concepts, comic books, novels, and television shows. Sequels, remakes, and prequels were still sure-fire. Who needs to pay Tom Cruise $30 million to run around with CGI’d dinosaurs when just as many people will pay to see Jeff Goldblum do the same?

This was all well and good until the “brands” ran out. Now Hollywood is down to “The Green Lantern” and board games like “Battleship.”

Movie stars, on the other hand, are the most reliable brands out there. People come to see them and if you have enough of them and if you keep developing them, the inventory is limitless. From the 1920s straight through to right around 1990, if you built it with movie stars, audiences would come. Hollywood didn’t need to rely on “brands” because they built pictures around their stars.

Today we’re down to Sandra Bullock, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington — the only three people I know who can still draw a crowd based solely on their name....

2. Stars Must Stop Insulting the Customers

Class. That’s what the customers are looking for in their stars, class. George Clooney could be a star and was on his way, but then he started insulting the 60-plus percent of customers who dared disagree with his obnoxious politics. Julia Roberts was the biggest star in the world until she did the same. Harrison Ford blew his image in too many ways to count, Russell Crowe can’t stop being a jerk, and Mel Gibson couldn’t control his ugly demons. Tom Hanks was universally beloved as a well-known Democrat by all of us. Not so much, though, after he called WWII a war of terror and racism.

Politically and morally, most of your customers are right-of-center. But the good news is that we don’t care how our stars vote or even if they advocate for this cause or that politician. But when you insult us and trash who we are, our faith and country — that’s crossing a line that’s awfully difficult to return from. Goodwill doesn’t just matter when it comes to the face of your industry; it is everything.

Let me ask you Hollywood leftists this: would you buy Charmin if Mr. Whipple called you an anti-American, crybaby, Marxist hippie loser? Of course not. And yet, your spokespeople do this to over 60% of your customers at least three times a week.

3. Liberal Films Are Fine, Partisan Films Must Stop

What were you thinking making films opposing a War on Terror we were still fighting and still could’ve lost?

Hollywood didn’t even do that during Vietnam.

Do you have any idea how selfish, narcissistic, and treasonous that was? Do you have any idea how your propaganda encouraged the enemy, which means that more of our troops and innocent Iraqis and Afghans died as a result?

You have blood on your hands. Making those films was an act of evil, and if you don’t think openly fighting on the side of terrorists has hurt you at the box office, you’re out of your mind.
Last number I saw, Hollywood’s approval rating is lower than George W. Bush’s when he left office, 33%. And you deserve it.

Your industry is packed with immature, ungrateful, moral illiterates, and I suggest you get them under control, because they tarnish the industry as a whole.

Oh, and while you’re at it, maybe you could stop championing and defending that hellbound fugitive
who drugged and anally raped a thirteen year-old girl.

The good news is that there’s nothing at all wrong with making political films. Just don’t make partisan films. All your liberal films have failed over the past 15 years because they’ve been heavy-handed and preachy. So…

Study! Learn! Hollywood has a rich history of political offerings that not only made money but also made a difference. Put your art first, your theme second, and your politics last.

4. Keep Politics Out of Children’s Movies
You loaded up “The Muppets,” “Cars 2,” and “Happy Feet 2″ with political sucker punching and left a ton of money on the table as soon as word got out.

These are our children. Hands off.

Ain't that the facts. The evil character in The Muppets was a rich oilman named Tex Richman who wanted the land under the Muppet Theater for, you guessed it, oil production. Please, give us a break with that.

5. Stop Marketing Exclusively to Teens

“The Help” made nearly $170M because it was an outstanding film, and it made a ton of profit because the draw was the story not some overpriced star surrounded by $150 million in special effects. “The King’s Speech” made $140 million for the exact same reasons....Adults do want to go to the movies. We just want to see grownup movies.

Good point. One of the biggest reasons I don't go to movies is they suck. Forgive me but I saw the previews for the Sherlock Holmes movie with Jude Law in the title role strapped down to a bed naked. But Conan Doyle's signature character was a genius not a sex symbol. And the overkill with the special effects doesn't help. Might I refer to the excellent film called The Matrix. It was the first with serious CGI in it and it actually complemented a good plot, script, character development, etc. I say that again, it complemented it, it was not the focus of the movie.

6. Go Back To Storytelling Basics, Crack the Code of the Classics
By “classics,” I don’t just mean the four-star Oscar winners, but also films that — critical acclaim or not — have stood the test of time. There’s a reason people still watch “Casablanca” and, yes, “Road House.” There’s a reason we all have “The Wizard of Oz” and “Rambo” in our home video collections.

What makes them so popular? What makes them timeless? What makes them beloved by each generation? I’ll give you the first two answers:

1. Stars.
2. Universal themes...
...10. The Lousy Theatre Experience

Talkers, cell phones, ticket and concession prices. You’ve got to fix this.

Right now, unless you’re the one doing the obnoxious talking, going to the theatre is a stressful and miserable experience.

Moreover, you’re charging us too much for tickets, and the theatres are absolutely gouging us for food and drink.

Presentation and follow-through is everything, and yet you let these incompetent theatre owners ruin the presentation part of a product you spent years and millions to develop and deliver.

Let me piggy back on that. Last year Beth and I went to see The King's Speech (again, good story, excellent actors, plot, etc...see a pattern here)as a matinee. Two adult discount tickets, two drinks and a popcorn. Thirty-two dollars. I'm often called thrifty, conservative with money, etc. No, I'm cheap. This is my money we're talking about. And I'm not going to waste it a two hour leftist propaganda rant (Avatar anyone) when I can watch my DVD of Patton or any John Wayne movie.

Good article to read and it's worth a few minutes. Hopefully the morons who run HOllywood get their heads out of their asses and save the industry from themselves. I don't have a warm and fuzzy on that. Remember Mel Gibson early last decade wanting to do a movie based on the end of Jesus Christ. All the experts wanted no part of it and Gibson did it himself. Over 600 million in box office based on a 30 million cost of production.

Gee guys, you really knew what you were doing then and you don't know what you are doing now.

Woooo....8 drinks in a can....

Scotch whiskey in a beer size can. I gotta take a look at this.

Will Scotch in a Can Get the Four Loko Treatment? 


Jacob Sullum, January 2, 2012

Here is a product that seems designed to make the heads of FTC bureaucrats and state attorneys general explode: Scotch in a can. And I'm not talking about Scotch ale. The Huffington Post's Ben Muessig reports that a company called Scottish Spirits Imports plans to sell its 80-proof "single grain scotch whisky" in 12-ounce cans. That's the alcohol equivalent of 1.7 Four Lokos or eight beers (assuming an alcohol content of 5 percent). Worse, the containers are nonresealable, although "Scottish Spirits hopes to begin shipping the cans with an attachment that allows them to be resealed." (Under pressure from the FTC, Phusion Projects, which makes Four Loko, agreed to sell it only in resealable containers as of April.) Scottish Spirits says the eight shots per can are meant to be sipped and shared, not guzzled by one person. "They'll crack it open and pour it with Coke or some kind of mixer," says Ken Rubenfeld, the company's vice president of operations, "and have fun with it with their friends." If the container did not tip you off, that scenario probably tells you all you need to know about the quality of this product.

It still might be classy enough to avoid trouble with federal regulators, whose main complaint about Four Loko was not its caffeine (since removed but contained in many other alcoholic beverages that remain on the market), its Chardonnay-level alcoholic strength, or the size of its cans (23.5 ounces) but rather its garish marketing aimed at "young adults" looking to get drunk cheaply, quickly, and easily. Scottish Spirits 3-Year-Old Single Grain Scotch Whisky, which will sell for about $5 a can (pricier, per ounce of pure ethanol, than Four Loko), seems intended for an older, if not wiser, demographic than the fruity, bubbly, neon-colored malt beverage. "A lot of people like to have beverages by their pool, on their boat, in a campground, at sporting events or tailgate parties," Rubenfeld explains. "It's easier to bring a six-pack of a beverage versus bringing a bottle of scotch."

Just to be clear: Although I do not care for Four Loko and probably will not start carrying my Scotch around in six-packs, such choices should be left to consumers, not paternalistic prosecutors or busybody bureaucrats. I suspect Scottish Spirits will have more luck in that respect than Phusion Projects did, for reasons that have more to do with taste than public safety.

By just the face they tried this I gotta try it. I've never tasted Four Loko but I see it at some point in the future. And yes, the consumer should get a choice like this.

Santa helped out the NRA a lot

Interesting that this kind of information comes from British media as opposed to the clap trap here.

Americans buy record numbers of guns for Christmas

Americans bought record numbers of guns last month amid an apparent surge in popularity for weapons as Christmas presents.

According to the FBI, over 1.5 million background checks on customers were requested by gun dealers to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System in December. Nearly 500,000 of those were in the six days before Christmas.

It was the highest number ever in a single month, surpassing the previous record set in November.

On Dec 23 alone there were 102,222 background checks, making it the second busiest single day for buying guns in history.

The actual number of guns bought may have been even higher if individual customers took home more
than one each.

Explanations for America's surge in gun buying include that it is a response to the stalled economy with people fearing crime waves. Another theory is that buyers are rushing to gun shops because they believe tighter firearms laws will be introduced in the future...

You can only speculate why this is happening but I'm planning on buying at least one gun this year. And I'm going to the range tomorrow! :)

Officer Down

Not a good start to the year....

Special Agent John Capano
United States Department of Justice - Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives
End of Watch: Saturday, December 31, 2011
Tour: 23 years
Badge # 2820

Special Agent John Capano was shot and killed while struggling with a robbery suspect outside of a pharmacy on Merrick Road in Seaford, Nassau County, New York.

Agent Capano was off duty and in the shopping center's parking lot at about 2:00 pm when the suspect entered the pharmacy and robbed it of OxyContin and cash. Several patrons were able to exit the store during the robbery and then pointed out the suspect as he exited. Agent Capano immediately confronted the suspect and a struggle as Agent Capano attempted to disarm the man.

A retired Nassau County police officer and an off-duty New York City police officer who were in a deli next door were also alerted. Both came out of the deli and discovered the men struggling. One of the officers fired at them, killing the suspect. Agent Capano was also fatally wounded during the shooting.

Agent Capano had served with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives for 23 years. He is survived by his wife and two children.

Sergeant Abimael Castro-Berrocales
Puerto Rico Police Department
End of Watch: Sunday, January 1, 2012
Age: 40
Tour: 20 years
Badge # 8-18871

Sergeant Abimael Castro-Berrocales was shot and killed after stopping a speeding vehicle on PR-100 in Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico, at approximately 9:30 am.

As he reached the driver's side of the stopped vehicle he was immediately shot twice in the face and critically wounded. A responding unit observed the suspect flee the scene but stopped to render aid to Sergeant Castro-Berrocales. He was transported to Río Piedras Medical Center where he succumbed to his wounds.

The suspect(s) involved with Sergeant Castro-Berrocales' murder remain at large.

Sergeant Castro-Berrocales had served with the Puerto Rico Police Department for 20 years. He is survived by his wife and three sons.

Park Ranger Margaret Anderson
National Park Service
End of Watch: Sunday, January 1, 2012
Age: 34
Tour: 4 years

Park Ranger Margaret Anderson was shot and killed while executing a felony stop near the Longmire Ranger Station in Mount Rainier National Park at approximately 10:30 am.



Another officer attempted to stop the suspect near the Paradise Ranger Station, but the suspect fled before being stopped again by Ranger Anderson, who had set up a road block. The suspect stepped out of his vehicle and opened fire, fatally striking Ranger Anderson.

After being shot, Ranger Anderson radioed for help as the suspect fled on foot. Officers attempting to reach Ranger Anderson were held at bay for approximately three hours as the suspect continued to fire on them.

The suspect's vehicle was recovered with additional weapons and body armor inside.

Ranger Anderson had served with the National Park Service for four years. She is survived by her husband and two young children. Her husband also serves as a park ranger in the park and was on duty at the time.

Rest in Peace …We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Officer Down, Officer Safety, Police, Police Training

Yes Terri and Dennis

This would be excellent!

Geaux Tigers!

Geaux Saints!

TSA screenings aren't just for airports anymore

I've often said a bureaucracy exist for only one reason. To exist. Next to insuring it's own survival everything else shrinks to insignificance.

Beautiful case in point

TSA screenings aren't just for airports anymore


Reporting from Charlotte, N.C.— Rick Vetter was rushing to board the Amtrak train in Charlotte, N.C., on a recent Sunday afternoon when a canine officer suddenly blocked the way.


Three federal air marshals in bulletproof vests and two officers trained to spot suspicious behavior watched closely as Seiko, a German shepherd, nosed Vetter's trousers for chemical traces of a bomb. Radiation detectors carried by the marshals scanned the 57-year-old lawyer for concealed nuclear materials.


When Seiko indicated a scent, his handler, Julian Swaringen, asked Vetter whether he had pets at home in Garner, N.C. Two mutts, Vetter replied. "You can go ahead," Swaringen said.


The Transportation Security Administration isn't just in airports anymore. TSA teams are increasingly conducting searches and screenings at train stations, subways, ferry terminals and other mass transit locations around the country.


"We are not the Airport Security Administration," said Ray Dineen, the air marshal in charge of the TSA office in Charlotte. "We take that transportation part seriously."


The TSA's 25 "viper" teams — for Visible Intermodal Prevention and Response — have run more than 9,300 unannounced checkpoints and other search operations in the last year. Department of Homeland Security officials have asked Congress for funding to add 12 more teams next year.


According to budget documents, the department spent $110 million in fiscal 2011 for "surface transportation security," including the TSA's viper program, and is asking for an additional $24 million next year. That compares with more than $5 billion for aviation security.


TSA officials say they have no proof that the roving viper teams have foiled any terrorist plots or thwarted any major threat to public safety. But they argue that the random nature of the searches and the presence of armed officers serve as a deterrent and bolster public confidence.

A bit more specific. The TSA cannot prove it has stopped any terrorist act since it was created. But we won't let reality get in the way of a good story.

"We have to keep them [terrorists] on edge," said Frank Cilluffo, director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington. "We're not going to have a permanent presence everywhere."...

Gee, feeling up 7 year olds and 90 year old women in wheel chairs really makes them scared.

A couple of the Republican candidates have said they would privatize airport security. We have just given these idiots unions. So it will be even harder to get them out of here.

Hey guys, you wanna get your jollies go back to the park in a van.