What's going on in the World Today 121114

Buford T. Justice: [shouting at a trucker that has sheered a door off of Justice's patrol car] I saw that, you sombitch! You did that on purpose! You're going away till you're gray! I got the evidence!

Buford T. Justice: [speaks to Junior] Put the evidence in the car.

Junior: But Daddy...

Buford T. Justice: Put the *evidence* in the *car*!
[shouting to trucker again]

Buford T. Justice: I'm gonna barbeque yo' ass in molasses!

Yes, I've been off the net with this for a while. Between the promotion test and a few other items things have been crazy. An early New Year's resolution is to keep up with this. And I'm starting a Master's Degree in Intelligence (no snickering please! :<) ) so this kinda ties into it. So here we go again:

Standard Orbit, Phasers on Stun, Kirk Out!

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USA

The Next U.S. Foreign Policy Team

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 7, 2012

EUROPE

Hints of Disunity Among Greece's International Lenders

Italy's Political Fragmentation

ASIA

Japan: Defense Talks With U.S. Wanted November 9, 2012

Japan wants talks with the United States to update mutual defense guidelines, Japanese Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto said Nov. 9. Morimoto cited China's expanding naval power, terrorism and cybercrime as concerns. Japan is not only Asia's second-largest economy, but it has arguably Asia's most capable military as well. In recent years, due to the military rise of China, Japan's leadership has felt emotionally the need to move closer to Washington

Japan: Taiwan Proposes Joint Maritime Area November 7, 2012

Taiwan has proposed to Japan the establishment of a jointly controlled area in the East China Sea that would allow both sides to fish in each other's overlapping exclusive economic zones, Taiwanese Foreign Minister David Lin said Nov. 7, Kyodo reported. Lin said he hopes a preparatory meeting could take place in November to discuss technical issues related to the proposal. Taiwan has taken a more assertive stance toward maritime territorial disputes.

The Middle East Distraction

Syria: Shipment Of Missile-Related Materials From North Korea Reportedly Stopped November 14, 2012

South Korean authorities at the port of Busan in May stopped a ship carrying graphite cylinders usable in a missile program and suspected to have come from North Korea and being en route to Syria, diplomats said Nov. 13, Reuters reported Nov. 14. The shipment appears to be a violation of U.N. sanctions, which Chinese authorities have said they will investigate, a diplomat said.

AFRICA

Mali: ECOWAS Agrees To Intervene In North November 12, 2012

The Economic Community of West African States will deploy 3,300 soldiers to Mali after leaders during a summit agreed to a six-month plan, the BBC reported Nov. 12. Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara said soldiers would be deployed when the United Nations approves the plan, which he hopes will happen by late November or early December. A preparatory phase will involve training and base establishment in Mali's south, followed by combat operations in the north. Jihadists in northern Mali have been preparing for such an intervention.

Mali: France Will Not Provide Air Support, Defense Minister Says November 13, 2012

France will not intervene militarily, even with air strikes, to fight Islamist militants in northern Mali, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Nov. 13, AP reported. France could gather intelligence or provide training for African forces set to begin a mission in the country's north, Le Drian said

Mali: Up To 400 European Troops To Help Intervention, Diplomats Say November 12, 2012

European armies expect to send between 200 and 400 special forces troops to Mali's north to support an African-led mission against Islamist militias, Nigerian newspaper Punch reported Nov. 12, citing diplomats. The soldiers would mostly train local forces and would not join in fighting, one diplomat said

RUSSIA

Russia: Private Companies May Join Nuclear Production Chain November 12, 2012

Russia will expand the role of private companies in its defense sector, including the participation of up to 300 or 400 contractors in the production chain for strategic nuclear missiles, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin said, RIA Novosti reported Nov. 12. Private contractors could develop and produce electronics and materials for missiles, and should account for 30 to 35 percent of Russia's defense and related industrial sectors, Rogozin said. Russia is seeking to pursue privatization programs in various sectors.

IRAN

Iran: Air Defense Drills To Begin Nov. 12 November 11, 2012

Iran's air defense forces will begin their annual air defense drills Nov. 12, Fars News Agency reported Nov. 11. An Iranian Air Defense official said that different units, including the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force and airborne units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Army Ground Force, the Iranian navy, volunteer forces and border guard units will participate. The official said that participating units will practice defending hypothetically sensitive sites. The drills come days after Iranian warplanes fired on a U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle.

Iran: New Air Defense System A Success, Officials Say November 13, 2012

Iranian military officials say Iran has successfully tested a new air defense system modeled after the U.S. Hawk system, AP reported Nov. 13. State television showed footage purportedly from a drill of the system in the eastern half of the country. In the footage, a Hawk missile was seen being launched and striking a mock aircraft. According to earlier reports, the new surface-to-air system is called "Mersad," or Ambush. Regardless of the reports' veracity, any airstrike on Iran would present a number of challenges.

Iraq: No U.S. Pressure On Russian Arms Deal November 13, 2012

Iraq was not pressured by the United States to suspend a $4.2 billion arms deal with Russia, a spokesman for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Nov. 13, RIA Novosti reported. The spokesman added that the deal, which was suspended Nov. 10 over the alleged corruption of the Russian officials negotiating it, would be continued with a new committee. Russia is looking to improve ties with Iraq to give Moscow more influence in the Middle East and allow it to build leverage against the United States

IRAQ

Iraq: Attacks Target Officials November 14, 2012

Vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices that detonated Nov. 14 in Kirkuk and Baghdad targeted officials, security sources said, Shafaq News reported. The Diyala governor survived an assassination attempt when an explosion targeted his convoy southwest of Kirkuk, a source in the Kirkuk police said. Nine people were wounded when a similar attack targeted the convoy of the commander of facilities protection for the municipality of Baghdad, a security source said

Iraq: Turkish Firm Excluded From Oil Exploration Deal November 7, 2012

Iraq has expelled Turkish energy firm TPAO from a potential exploration deal in Block 9 in Iraq's south, an Oil Ministry said Nov. 7, AFP reported. The block had been awarded in May to a consortium involving TPAO, Kuwait Energy and the United Arab Emirates' Dragon Oil. The move comes amid cooling relations between Ankara and Baghdad.

Iraq: ExxonMobil Wants To Sell Share In Oilfield November 7, 2012

ExxonMobil informed the Iraqi government that it wants to sell its share in the West Qurna-1 oilfield, Iraqi officials said Nov. 7, Reuters reported. Baghdad will reply to the request by Nov. 11, an official said. It is still unclear who could replace ExxonMobil in the oilfield, which pumps around 400,000 barrels per day of crude and is also worked by minority partner Royal Dutch/Shell. Iraq depends on international investment to develop its vast oil reserves.

ISRAEL

Palestinian Territories: Abbas To Ask For U.N. Membership November 12, 2012

The Palestinian National Authority will request non-state U.N. member status on Nov. 29, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Nov. 12, AFP reported. Abbas made the statement after meeting with Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby in Cairo. He added that the Palestinians do not want any confrontations with the United States or Israel, and would like to open peace talks the day after the vote on non-state membership. In the past, the United States has threatened to use its U.N. Security Council veto to block Palestinian requests for statehood at the United Nations.

Egypt: Cairo Threatens To Recall Tel Aviv Ambassador November 13, 2012

Egypt threatened to recall its ambassador to Tel Aviv if Israel began a ground operation in Gaza, The Times of Israel reported Nov. 13, citing Maariv. The current round of cross-border violence in Gaza has ended, a member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's inner forum of ministers said.

AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan: Haqqani Network Could Join Talks With Washington, Commander Says November 13, 2012

The insurgent Haqqani network would join peace talks with the United States if the Taliban, headed by leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, decided to do so, an unidentified Haqqani commander said, Reuters reported Nov. 13. Still, the Haqqanis will continue attacking Western forces and pursuing their goal of establishing an Islamic state, the commander said. Anti-Taliban factions in Afghanistan have begun to take unilateral actions.

Afghanistan: Jihadist Group Illegally Distributing Weapons, Provincial Officials Say November 8, 2012

A group calling itself the Council of Jihadi Commanders has over the last few weeks begun to illegally distribute weapons in Herat province, a spokesman for the province's governor said, Tolo News reported Nov. 7. A spokesman for the group denied the allegations, saying that the serial numbers and cards on the weapons show they are not distributed by the group.

Afghanistan: Missiles Fired From Iran Land In Border Area, Officials Say November 7, 2012

Missiles fired from Iranian soil hit the border areas in the Chahar Borjak district of Afghanistan's Nimroz province on Nov. 7, the Afghan Islamic Press agency reported, citing senior provincial government officials. More than 10 missiles were fired from Iran overnight, an official said. Afghan officials discussed the issue with Iranian officials, who said a military exercise was ongoing in the area and a missile could have been fired toward Afghanistan by mistake.

MIDDLE EAST

Syria: New Opposition Group May Herald Change

Egypt: EU Approves Aid Package, Presidency Says November 14, 2012

The European Union has approved a 5 billion euro ($6.36 billion) aid package for Egypt, a statement from Egypt's presidency said Nov. 14 after a meeting between Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi and EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton, AFP reported. The European Investment Bank will contribute 2 billion euros, as will the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; EU countries will come up with 1 billion euros. Cairo needs help dealing with dueling fiscal and political pressures.

Syria: Opposition Creates New Coalition November 11, 2012

Syrian opposition groups have signed an initial deal to create a new coalition to fight against Syrian President Bashar al Assad, Reuters reported Nov. 11, citing delegates at talks held in Doha, Qatar. The new group will be called the Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces and comprises groups from inside and outside of Syria. A Muslim Brotherhood delegate to the Doha talks said the body's president and deputy will be elected in an evening session.

Syria: France Recognizes Opposition Coalition November 13, 2012

France officially recognized the Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people and the future government of a democratic Syria, French President Francois Hollande announced Nov. 13 at a news conference in Paris, BBC reported. France is the first European country to recognize the opposition coalition, which was created Nov. 11 and has been recognized by the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Syria: Gulf Cooperation Council Recognizes Opposition Coalition November 12, 2012

The Gulf Cooperation Council has officially recognized the Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces, created Nov. 11, as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, GCC Secretary-General Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani said Nov. 12, Al Arabiya and AFP reported. If the Syrian opposition is successful in uniting and fulfilling the requirements outlined by the West, it is likely that the anti-Assad movement inside Syria will receive an increase in funding and weaponry necessary to accelerate the fall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad.

Syria: Army Targets Area Along Turkish Border November 11, 2012

Syrian helicopters fired rockets into the Ras al-Ain area near the Turkish border Nov. 11, Reuters reported, citing Syrian opposition activists. Shells reportedly hit a border crossing in Syria's Hasaka province, an oil-producing region and home to many of Syria's Kurds. Rounds fired from tanks appeared to hit western Ras al-Ain, and some artillery appeared to land just inside the Turkish border.

Kuwait: Two Members Of Ruling Family Arrested November 9, 2012

Two members of Kuwait's ruling Al-Sabah family have been arrested for posts to Twitter criticizing the government and supporting the opposition, AFP reported Nov. 9, citing the Kuwait Human Rights News Center and a lawyer. Sheikh Abdullah Salem Al-Sabah and Sheikh Nawaf Malek Al-Sabah were arrested for the political statements. Political tensions will continue ahead of the Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.
Saudi Arabia: Authorities Tell U.N. Iran Has Trespassed On Saudi Territory November 12, 2012

Saudi authorities in a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon accused Iran of trespassing on Saudi territory near oil and natural gas fields, Saudi Ambassador to the United Nations Abdallah Y. Al-Mouallimi said Nov. 12, Reuters reported, citing Okaz newspaper. Al-Mouallimi said the breaches included Iranian helicopters flying over a natural gas field as Hasba and Iranian navy boats intercepting a Saudi Arabian Oil Co. vessel. The ambassador added that Saudi Arabia is considering its response options. This incident, in addition to Iran's attack on a U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle Nov. 1, could indicate Tehran's growing unease following several geopolitical setbacks

Turkey: NATO Preparing To Deploy Missiles To Syrian Border - Foreign Minister November 7, 2012

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Nov. 7 that NATO is preparing to deploy Patriot missiles to Turkey's border with Syria, Today's Zaman reported. This could change the dynamic of the Syrian crisis, Davutoglu said. The conflict in Syria presents both a threat and an opportunity for Turkey.

SOUTH OF THE BORDER

Mexico: U.S. Marijuana Legalization Could Change Anti-Drug Strategies November 9, 2012

The decision by voters in Colorado and Washington state to legalize the recreational use of marijuana has left Mexican President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto and members of his incoming administration needing to reformulate their anti-drug strategies in light of what one senior aide said was a referendum that “changes the rules of the game,” The Washington Post reported Nov. 8. A top aide said Peña Nieto and his team will discuss the issue with U.S. President Barack Obama and congressional leaders in Washington this month. The legalization votes are expected to spark a debate in Mexico about the direction and costs of the U.S.-backed drug war there. During Mexico's presidential election, Pena Nieto pledged to reduce the drug cartel-related violence that has plagued Mexico for years.

Mexico Security Memo: Federal Police Under Attack in Coahuila

Mexico Security Memo: Tamaulipas Turf Wars

Colombia: Rebels Will Not Demobilize - Negotiators November 12, 2012

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known by its Spanish acronym, FARC, will not demobilize but will agree to surrender its weapons, senior FARC negotiators said Nov. 12, according to Colombia Reports, citing El Telegrafo newspaper. Demobilization has been a point of contention since peace talks began Oct. 18.

MISC

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

More news of crooks from the hometown...

Yesterday I posted on a waste of sperm from Kenna (that's how the locals pronounce Kenner), s suburb of New Orleans. Well, here is another one...only a little more white collar.

Feds looking at 2 more alleged shakedowns involving former Mayor Ray Nagin

Having already convicted one businessman of bribing former Mayor Ray Nagin, federal authorities are trying to prove two other corrupt deals involving the former mayor before the five-year statute of limitations on some of his alleged crimes expires. One of those deals centers on a payment Nagin allegedly received from Rodney Williams, a former co-owner of the politically active New Orleans engineering firm Three Fold Consultants, according to sources with knowledge of the case.

Ray Nagin, seen here with his sons, Jeremy and Jarin. The Times-Picayune archive
The other focuses on whether Nagin applied pressure on corporate leaders at Home Depot to steer work to Stone Age LLC, the now-defunct granite-countertop company Nagin ran with his wife and two sons.

The pressure came at a time when Home Depot was building a new store in Central City and was haggling with the city over various items, including the price it would have to pay for nearby city streets and whether it would have to sign a "community benefits agreement" requiring it to hire a certain number of neighborhood residents at certain pay levels.

Three Fold Consultants, founded in 2000, has been a regular recipient of city contracts, particularly in the years after Hurricane Katrina. According to a source with knowledge of the case, authorities are examining a $50,000 payment by Williams to Nagin or Stone Age that was made in late 2007 or early 2008.

The theory of the case is that the payment greased the skids for additional city engineering contracts for Three Fold. The company has had numerous no-bid city jobs: Among nine jobs featured on its website, five involve work for the city or related entities such as the Sewerage & Water Board. The jobs include help overseeing $250 million in street repair and supervising the construction of improvements along Canal Street...

When Nagin started as mayor he started some cleaning up at the city vehicle inspection stations and it looked like New Orleans may have finally elected someone decent. Oh well, Katrina showed what he was made of. This is no Rudy Giulian. Hopefully the US Attorney nails his ass like they nailed Edwards.

Officer Down

Police Officer James "Jim" Davies
Lakewood Colorado Police Department
End of Watch: Friday, November 9, 2012
Age: 35
Tour: 6 years, 6 months

Police Officer Jim Davies was accidentally shot and killed in a case of mistaken identity while securing the perimeter of a scene in which shots were fired.

Lakewood officers had responded to an unrelated prowler call near 19th Avenue and Eaton Street when they heard gunfire coming from a house on Eaton Street. The officers took three subjects into custody after one man was observed firing a handgun in front of the house.

As multiple officers worked to secure the perimeter of the house Officer Davies was mistaken for an assailant and was fatally shot by another officer. He was pronounced dead at the scene.

Officer Davies had served with the Lakewood Police Department for 6-1/2 years and was assigned to the Special Enforcement Team. He is survived by his wife and two young children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Geopolitical Weekly: The Elections, Gridlock and Foreign Policy, November 7, 2012

By George Friedman

The United States held elections last night, and nothing changed. Barack Obama remains president. The Democrats remain in control of the Senate with a non-filibuster-proof majority. The Republicans remain in control of the House of Representatives.

The national political dynamic has resulted in an extended immobilization of the government. With the House -- a body where party discipline is the norm -- under Republican control, passing legislation will be difficult and require compromise. Since the Senate is in Democratic hands, the probability of it overriding any unilateral administrative actions is small. Nevertheless, Obama does not have enough congressional support for dramatic new initiatives, and getting appointments through the Senate that Republicans oppose will be difficult.

There is a quote often attributed to Thomas Jefferson: "That government is best which governs the least because its people discipline themselves." I am not sure that the current political climate is what was meant by the people disciplining themselves, but it is clear that the people have imposed profound limits on this government. Its ability to continue what is already being done has not been curbed, but its ability to do much that is new has been blocked.

The Plan for American Power

The gridlock sets the stage for a shift in foreign policy that has been under way since the U.S.-led intervention in Libya in 2011. I have argued that presidents do not make strategies but that those strategies are imposed on them by reality. Nevertheless, it is always helpful when the subjective wishes of a president and necessity coincide, even if the intent is not the same.

In previous articles and books, I have made the case that the United States emerged as the only global power in 1991, when the Soviet Union fell. It emerged unprepared for its role and uncertain about how to execute it. The exercise of power requires skill and experience, and the United States had no plan for how to operate in a world where it was not faced with a rival. It had global interests but no global strategy.

This period began in 1991 and is now in the process of ending. The first phase consisted of a happy but illusory period in which it was believed that there were no serious threats to the United States. This was replaced on 9/11 with a phase of urgent reaction, followed by the belief that the only interest the United States had was prosecuting a war against radical Islamists.

Both phases were part of a process of fantasy. American power, simply by its existence, was a threat and challenge to others, and the world remained filled with danger. On the other hand, focusing on one thing obsessively to the exclusion of all other matters was equally dangerous. American foreign policy was disproportionate, and understandably so. No one was prepared for the power of the United States.

During the last half of the past decade, the inability to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with economic problems, convinced reasonable people that the United States had entered an age of permanent decline. The sort of power the United States has does not dissipate that fast. The disintegration of European unity and the financial crisis facing China have left the United States, not surprisingly, still the unchallenged global power. The issue is what to do with that power.

The defeated challenger in the U.S. election, Mitt Romney, had a memorable and important turn of phrase when he said that you can't kill your way out of the problems of the Middle East. The point that neither Romney nor Obama articulated is what you do instead in the Middle East -- and elsewhere.

Constant use of military force is not an option. See the example of the British Empire: Military force was used judiciously, but the preferred course was avoiding war in favor of political arrangements or supporting enemies of enemies politically, economically and with military aid. That was followed by advisers and trainers -- officers for native troops. As a last resort, when the balance could not hold and the issue was of sufficient interest, the British would insert overwhelming force to defeat an enemy. Until, as all empires do, they became exhausted.

The American strategy of the past years of inserting insufficient force to defeat an enemy that could be managed by other means, and whose ability to harm the United States was limited, would not have been the policy of the British Empire. Nor is it a sustainable policy for the United States. When war comes, it must be conducted with overwhelming force that can defeat the enemy conclusively. And war therefore must be rare because overwhelming force is hard to come by and enemies are not always easy to beat. The constant warfare that has characterized the beginning of this century is strategically unsustainable.

Libya and Syria

In my view, the last gasp of this strategy was Libya. The intervention there was poorly thought out: The consequences of the fall of Moammar Gadhafi were not planned for, and it was never clear why the future of Libya mattered to the United States. The situation in Libya was out of control long before the Sept. 11 attack in Benghazi. It was a case of insufficient force being applied to an uncertain enemy in a war that did not rise to the level of urgency.

The U.S. treatment of Syria is very different. The United States' unwillingness to involve itself directly with main military force, in spite of urgings from various directions, is an instance in which even a potentially important strategic goal -- undermining Iranian influence in Syria -- could be achieved by depending on regional powers to manage the problem or to live with it as they choose. Having provided what limited aid was required to destabilize the Syrian government, the United States was content to let the local balance of power take its course.

It is not clear whether Obama saw the doctrine I am discussing -- he certainly didn't see it in Libya, and his Syrian policy might simply have been a reaction to his miscalculations in Libya. But the subjective intentions of a leader are not as important as the realities he is responding to, however thoughtfully or thoughtlessly. It was clear that the United States could not continue to intervene with insufficient forces to achieve unclear goals in countries it could not subdue.

Nor could the United States withdraw from the world. It produces almost one-quarter of the world's GDP; how could it? The historical answer was not a constant tempo of intervention but a continual threat of intervention, rarely fulfilled, coupled with skillful management of the balance of power in a region. Even better, when available as a course, is to avoid even the threat of intervention or any pretense of management and let most problems be solved by the people affected by them.

This is not so much a policy as a reality. The United States cannot be the global policeman or the global social worker. The United States is responsible for pursuing its own interests at the lowest possible cost. If withdrawal is impossible, avoiding conflicts that do not involve fundamental American interests is a necessity because garrison states -- nations constantly in a state of war -- have trouble holding on to power. Knowing when to go to war is an art, the heart of which is knowing when not to go to war.

One of the hardest things for a young empire to master is the principle that, for the most part, there is nothing to be done. That is the phase in which the United States finds itself at the moment. It is coming to terms not so much with the limits of power as the nature of power. Great power derives from the understanding of the difference between those things that matter and those that don't, and from a ruthless indifference to those that don't. It is a hard thing to learn, but history is teaching it to the United States.

The Domestic Impasse

The gridlock in which this election has put the U.S. government is a suitable frame for this lesson. While Obama might want to launch major initiatives in domestic policy, he can't. At the same time, he seems not to have the appetite for foreign adventures. It is not clear whether this is simply a response to miscalculation or a genuine strategic understanding, but in either case, adopting a more cautious foreign policy will come naturally to him. This will create a framework that begins to institutionalize two lessons: First, it is rarely necessary to go to war, and second, when you do go to war, go with everything you have. Obama will follow the first lesson, and there is time for the second to be learned by others. He will practice the studied indifference that most foreign problems pose to the United States.

There will be a great deal of unhappiness with the second Obama administration overseas. As much as the world condemns the United States when it does something, at least part of the world is usually demanding some action. Obama will disappoint, but it is not Obama. Just as the elections will paralyze him domestically, reality will limit his foreign policy. Immobilism is something the founders would have been comfortable with, both in domestic politics and in foreign policy. The voters have given the republic a government that will give them both.

The Elections, Gridlock and Foreign Policy is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Officer Down

Agent Iván G. Román-Matos
Puerto Rico Police Department
End of Watch: Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Age: 34
Tour: 1 year, 4 months
Badge # 35680

Agent Iván Román-Matos was shot and killed as he and his partner responded to a robbery at a store near the intersection of PR-2 and PR-866 in Toa Baja, Puerto Rico, at approximately 8:40 pm.

As the officers arrived at the scene, Agent Román-Matos pursued one subject while his partner pursued a second subject. The first subject opened fire and, despite wearing a vest, Agent Román-Matos was struck four times in the head and neck. He was transported to Doctors Center Hospital where he died a short time later.

Both subjects fled the scene but were apprehended within 24 hours.

Agent Román-Matos had served with the Puerto Rico Police Department for seven months and was assigned to the 171st Precinct. He is survived by his wife and son.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Security Weekly: The Expensive, Diminishing Threat of Somali Piracy, November 8, 2012

By Ben West

Piracy off the coast of Somalia has dropped off dramatically in 2012. Successful ship hijackings have decreased from 31 in 2011 (and 49 in 2010) to only four so far in 2012. Attacks against ships have also decreased, falling from 199 reported attacks in the first nine months of 2011 to 70 attacks over the same span in 2012 -- a 65 percent drop. However, diminished activity does not necessarily mean a decrease in the cost of sailing around the Horn of Africa. Somali pirates occupy a unique position, which is right along highly strategic global shipping lanes yet outside the reach of any national power. For international actors, it is politically and militarily easier to try to contain the Somali piracy threat than to eliminate it. But containment comes at a high cost.

Controlling Territory

Many factors have contributed to the decrease in pirate hijackings in 2012. One factor is that shipping companies have begun equipping their ships with more countermeasures, namely armed guards. For several years, commercial ships sailing in the Indian Ocean have used other countermeasures, such as fences, water cannons and adjusted tactics like disabling the ship. But the widespread deployment of armed guards beginning in 2011 (guards had been used sparingly as far back as 2008) has a very close correlation to the recent decrease in hijackings. In late 2009, only about 10-20 percent of commercial ships sailing through waters where Somali pirates operate carried guards; today, some estimates put the percentage as high as 70 percent. To date, pirates have never successfully hijacked a ship that had armed guards. But it should be noted that, even though the use of armed guards appears to be the most effective countermeasure against piracy, there are other factors at work.

For instance, government officials also attribute the drop-off in attacks and hijackings to better coordination between foreign naval patrols, which have made the waters off the Somali coast a less permissive environment for pirate operations. With several years of practice, sailors from international missions such as the U.S.-backed Combined Task Force 151 and the EU-backed Atalanta mission as well as from the unilateral missions of China, Russia, Iran and others have had time to study pirate activity and become more efficient at stopping attacks.

Several dozen foreign naval ships are deployed to secure the waters for commercial shipping at any given time. Their focus is escorting ships through the Gulf of Aden, but the area of pirate activity is much larger than that, reaching across the Arabian Sea to India and Madagascar. Effectively patrolling such a large area requires intelligence and the development of a counterpiracy doctrine that includes going after the larger pirate vessels, called mother ships, that extend pirates' range and allow them to operate in rougher seas during the monsoon.

Taken together, the increased use of armed guards aboard commercial ships and the growing effectiveness of foreign naval patrols have contributed to undermining the pirates' control over the seas. Three years ago pirates were largely uncontested, but now they face a more coordinated defense. They hijacked commercial ships because they were relatively soft targets -- which could be taken by four people with AK-47s, a fishing boat and a ladder -- making the millions of dollars in profit from a ransom payment very attractive. The armed guards and naval patrols have not eliminated piracy, but they have increased the costs of attacking and seizing a commercial ship. Because pirates are motivated more by profit than by any ideology, a decrease in profitability will deter them from engaging in the practice.

Still, whatever the status of the sea, the coastal towns of Somalia, such as Hobyo and Haradheere, are still out of the control of any national or international force. The Puntland Maritime Police Force, which began operations in early 2012 with the help of Arab funding, made some progress in denying pirates sanctuary on land, but political contention prevents it from controlling the territory outright, making pirate activity still a very attractive economic model in central Somalia.

When piracy flared in the Strait of Malacca in the early 2000s, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia were able to pursue the pirates on land and deny them sanctuary because they had the security forces and territorial integrity to do so. This is also true currently on the western coast of Africa in the Gulf of Guinea, where pirates occasionally hijack ships even though they have no ports in which to anchor the vessels. Since the West African governments have control -- however tenuous -- over their own sovereign territory, they still have the means to track down hijacked ships and keep pirates from creating sanctuaries. Somalia, on the other hand, has struggled for decades to control its territory. Over the past few years, it hasn't even been able to fully control Mogadishu, its capital, against the Islamist threat from al Shabaab. The new Somali federal government still lacks the capability to control pirate towns such as Hobyo and Haradheere, and its officials do not appear to want a strong Puntland doing it for them.

By wresting maritime control from Somali pirates, commercial shipping companies and foreign navies have reduced the number of attacks but have not eliminated the threat. Several Western forces, including those of France, the United Kingdom and the United States, have gone on land a few times to pursue pirates, but generally, foreign militaries have avoided Somalia. Whereas the countries bordering the Strait of Malacca or Gulf of Guinea are able to go on the offensive to root out piracy, the rest of the world, unable to rely on Somalia, is going on the defensive.

In essence, the commercial shippers and naval forces have adopted a siege strategy -- they hope to starve the pirates of resources, forcing them to give up. Somali pirates held about 20 ships at any given time in 2010; they currently hold 11. As the pirates hijack fewer ships, and as armed guards make piracy more dangerous, the entire enterprise is looking less lucrative and appealing.

The Bottom Line

Even though the Somali pirates have not been as successful in 2012 as they were in recent years, their existence is still making it more expensive to sail around the Horn of Africa. The problem with the siege strategy is that as soon as shipping companies or foreign naval forces let up on the pirates, they will go back to hijacking ships.

The cost of prevention right now is high. It is impossible to know exactly how many ships are vulnerable to Somali pirate attacks each year, but we know that about 33,000 commercial ships pass through the Gulf of Aden yearly. Estimates of how many of those ships carry armed guards range from 40 to 70 percent. That means that about 13,000-23,000 ships are paying for armed guards to accompany them through the vulnerable areas, a roughly 10-day trip, at a cost of approximately $60,000 each time. Based on those figures, the total annual cost for shipping companies merely to deploy armed guards on their ships through the Gulf of Aden is between about $800 million and $1.4 billion. The total cost of piracy to the world in 2011, according to the One Earth Future Foundation's estimates, was between $6.6 billion and $6.9 billion. This estimate included $160 million for ransom payments; other preventative measures, such as rerouting ships or using more fuel to maintain higher speeds, made up the rest of the costs.

In other words, the cost of preventing piracy off the coast of Somalia is substantially higher than the costs piracy inflicts. Nevertheless, shipping companies are willing to pay a premium to prevent disruptions in their operations. They would prefer to pay a small amount for protection on each trip -- even though it adds up -- if it means averting a hijacking and multimillion-dollar ransom.

Somalia's Future

The key component of the siege strategy is that it weakens the pirates' control over their land-based sanctuaries. Their power is connected to their revenue, so the decrease in revenue will decrease their power. The shipping companies and foreign navies hope that some other, less disruptive enterprises will eventually take root along Somalia's pirate-heavy coast.

In the midst of forming its first permanent government since 1991, Somalia is currently incapable of addressing its lack of control over the central Somali coast. Instead, it is focusing on securing the population bases of Mogadishu, Kismayo and other small towns in south-central Somalia from al Shabaab. This will occupy the government for at least the next year. Even after that, Mogadishu has little incentive to try to tighten its control over central coastal pirate towns. The government has much more to lose if it fails in southern Somalia because it redirected scarce government resources to take on piracy. The pirate-held areas are economically depressed and are politically less important. That's why they started engaging in piracy in the first place.

The only force that has significantly challenged the pirates on land is the Puntland Maritime Police Force. Located in northeast Somalia, Puntland is much more stable than the south and is virtually independent. The Puntland Maritime Police Force had success in capturing pirates, destroying their staging bases along the beach, cutting off their supply routes and even, supposedly, attempting to seize hijacked vessels from the pirates. However, the police force suffered from funding cuts and political opposition and appears to no longer be active against the pirates. Although Mogadishu is unable to control much of its territory, the new government doesn't want regional governments accumulating too much strength. In the end, a strong Puntland may be more of a risk to Mogadishu than pirates.

Without a sustained, land-based intervention, Somali piracy will continue -- even if it is at a lower rate -- at least until some other criminal enterprise takes its place. But even at its lower rate, as long as Somali pirates are operating, they will be an expensive burden for the world's shipping industry.

The Expensive, Diminishing Threat of Somali Piracy is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Officer Down

Police Officer Marcia Figueroa
Cleveland Ohio Police Department
End of Watch: Sunday, November 4, 2012
Age: 54
Tour: 14 years
Incident Date: 11/3/2012

Police Officer Marcia Figueroa died after suffering a medical emergency while assigned to a protective detail at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport for Air Force One and President Barack Obama during a campaign visit.

After collapsing, she was flown to University Hospital where she passed away the following day.

Officer Figueroa had served with the Cleveland Police Department for 14 years.

Rest in Peace Sis…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

More waste of sperm from the home town.

As I was on NOLA.COM reviewing the Saints beating the formerly undefeated Atlanta Falcons (to the delight of Saints fans everywhere and Don Shula and 1972 Dolphins who saw their undefeated record hold) I saw this from the burbs of New Orleans. Another beautiful example of why some people should not be allowed to breed.

Kenner police arrest three women for leaving baby and dog locked in car while they shopped at Walmart

Here she is, Kenna's Mother of the Year

Kenner police arrested Quija Hawkins for child desertion after  she left her baby in a locked car for 45 minutes while she shopped at Walmart.

Kenner police arrested three women Nov. 8 after leaving a 10-month-old baby and a dog inside a locked car with the window partially rolled down while they shopped at the Walmart at 300 W. Esplanade Ave.An off-duty Kenner officer working a security detail was flagged down by a concerned citizen at around 8 p.m. who reported hearing a child crying from inside a locked vehicle.

Officers located the mother, Quija Hawkins, 18, the grandmother, Lisa Hawkins, 38, and the infants' aunt, Troynisha Hawkins, 17, inside the store. The women told the officers they didn't want to wake the baby who was sleeping in a child safety seat. So after making sure the doors were locked and the window was partially opened, they left the infant inside the car with their dog for approximately 15 to 30 minutes while they shopped.

Officers noted that at the time of incident the New Orleans International Airport reported that it was 53 degrees outside. A review of surveillance cameras revealed the Hawkins were inside the store for over 45 minutes before they were located.

The Hawkins, who told officers they live at 6320 Riverside Dr. in Metairie, were arrested and charged with child desertion. The Office of Community Services and Child Protection were notified of the incident, and the infant was placed with a second grandmother who arrived on scene. The City of Kenner Humane Department took custody of the dog.

The women were released Nov. 9 from the Jefferson Parish Correctional Center on a $1,000 commercial bond each.

I knew the street Riverside rang a bell and I looked it up on Mapquest. I used to live in that neighborhood in the late 70s. Damed how the place has gone down.

One thing that really gets me the 38 year old grandmother. She is supposed to be the adult supervision in the group and she apparently has no issue with leaving her grandchild alone with a dog. Then again she's a grandmother before she's 40. She is a grandmother and she's ten years younger than I am. In the immortal words of the wrong Reverend Wright "America's chickens have come home to roost!" Mrs Hawkins has shown herself not mature enough to be a parent, much less a grandparent. But we have raised generations since the late 60s to simply have children before you get out of school, we'll give you subsistence and the boys who father these children, hey, the kids are not your problem. Go and make more.

I only hope the child gets a good foster home. Not much could be worse than this family.

We have proof of time travel

He didn't understand don't drink and drive in two types of time

Man In Two Drunk Driving Busts... At The Same Time | The Smoking Gun

NOVEMBER 8--Thanks to this past weekend’s daylight saving time switch, an Ohio man was arrested for two separate drunk driving incidents at the same time early Sunday morning, records show.

Niles Gammons, 22, was first pulled over by an Urbana cop when he was spotted driving an Oldsmobile the wrong way in an alley. Pictured at right, Gammons was pulled over at 1:08 AM by an officer who reported that he reeked of booze and had glassy eyes.

Sergeant Dave Reese noted that when he sought to have Gammons perform a Breathalyzer test, “I could hear that he had something in his mouth.” As it turned out, Gammons’s mouth was filled with pennies.

“I then advised Niles that pennies in the mouth were a myth and that it did not help in taking a breath test,” Reese noted.

After Gammons’s blood alcohol content was measured at .116, he was arrested for drunk driving. After being transported to the Urbana police headquarters, Gammons was issued citations and “released to an adult.”

Following Gammons’s departure, Reese wrote, “At 2:00 AM, the time changed from daylight savings time to standard time and 2:00 AM became 1:00 AM.”

At 1:08 AM--“exactly one hour after the first stop”--Reese was driving his patrol car in Urbana’s municipal parking lot when a vehicle “backed out of a spot rapidly and nearly collided with my cruiser.”

Reese quickly determined that Gammons was behind the wheel. “I asked Niles why he was driving, because he was under suspension and still intoxicated.” Gammons replied that “his friend that picked him up dropped him off and refused to take him home.”

I can see defense attorney with this one, "You honor, how can my client be DWI at 108am on the alley when he was DWI on the at the same time across town?_

Unfortunately this belief is all too common in supposed adults today.

From CBS in Chicago, aka The Windy City, where it all blows!

Some In Line For City Job Fair Upset There’s No Hiring On The Spot « CBS Chicago

First Ever City Job Fair Leaves Many Frustrated With Hiring Process

CHICAGO (CBS) – About 3,000 people lined up for the city’s first-ever jobs fair on Friday – some of them waiting in line for up to six hours – hoping to apply for work with the city, but many left frustrated after learning the only way to apply for a job was to go online.

WBBM Newsradio’s Bernie Tafoya reports Mayor Rahm Emanuel stopped by the job fair, expecting a warm welcome from job seekers, but instead ran into lots of ticked-off people.

More than 3,000 people showed up for the 55 posted job openings, but city hiring rules require all applications be filed online, so many of those who attended left frustrated at having to stand in line for hours, without being able to actually apply for a job.

...Rodney Booker said, “I stood in line for four hours. They better give me a Wal-Mart gift card, or something.”

Now it's bad enough that this supposed adult is expecting something for just showing up. Kinda like kids playing little league football and getting a trophy for showing up. And the city city unions kept non-union Wal-Mart out for years.

As I've said to my daughter who is starting her first job at 17, "Welcome to the real world"

Mark Steyn hits it out the park again.

I've admired Steyn for years. His combination of satire and direct points is perfect. From his National Review article this morning, an excerpt.

The Edge of the Abyss - Mark Steyn - National Review Online

In the weeks ahead, Democrats and Republicans will reach a triumphant “bipartisan” deal to avert the fiscal cliff through some artful bookkeeping mechanism that postpones Taxmageddon for another year, or six months, or three, when they can reach yet another triumphant deal to postpone it yet again. Harry Reid has already announced that he wants to raise the debt ceiling — or, more accurately, lower the debt abyss — by $2.4 trillion before the end of the year, and no doubt we can look forward to a spectacular “bipartisan” agreement on that, too. It took the government of the United States two centuries to rack up its first trillion dollars in debt. Now Washington piles on another trillion every nine months. Forward!...

...In 2009, the Democrats became the first government in the history of the planet to establish annual trillion-dollar deficits as a permanent feature of life. Before the end of Obama’s second term, the federal debt alone will hit $20 trillion. That ought to have been the central fact of this election — that Americans are the brokest brokey-broke losers who ever lived, and it’s time to do something about it.

...In the course of his first term, Obama increased the federal debt by just shy of $6 trillion and in return grew the economy by $905 billion. So, as Lance Roberts at Street Talk Live pointed out, in order to generate every dollar of economic growth the United States had to borrow about five dollars and 60 cents. There’s no one out there on the planet — whether it’s “the rich” or the Chinese — who can afford to carry on bankrolling that rate of return. According to one CBO analysis, U.S.-government spending is sustainable as long as the rest of the world is prepared to sink 19 percent of its GDP into U.S. Treasury debt. We already know the answer to that: In order to avoid the public humiliation of a failed bond auction, the U.S. Treasury sells 70 percent of the debt it issues to the Federal Reserve — which is to say the left hand of the U.S. government is borrowing money from the right hand of the U.S. government. It’s government as a Nigerian e-mail scam, with Ben Bernanke playing the role of the dictator’s widow with $4 trillion under her bed that she’s willing to wire to Timmy Geithner as soon as he sends her his bank-account details....

And B Hussein Obama said after Tuesday night "The best is yet to come." That should send chills up the spine of any sane human being out there.

Again, thanks to all of you liking Santa. We can only hope, no pray this ends before the Left's dream of America as an European Socialist Democracy is fulfilled.

USS Enterprise ends it's time in service

World's first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, finishes final voyage home | CTV News

Didn't get to this earlier but here is more history past.

The world's first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier ended its remarkable career at sea on Sunday when it pulled into its home port for the final time after participating in every major conflict since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

The USS Enterprise began shutting down its eight nuclear reactors almost as soon as it arrived at its pier at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia, where thousands of cheering family members and friends welcomed the ship home from its 25th and final deployment after nearly eight months at sea. The ship will never move on its own power again and will eventually be scrapped in Washington state, making its final voyage a sentimental one for those who have sailed aboard "The Big E."

Copies of the ship's daily newspaper, "The Shuttle," were in short supply as sailors looked for memorabilia to take with them. Countless personal photos were taken by sailors throughout the ship as it approached shore.

"It's exceptionally emotional and exceptionally satisfying," Rear Adm. Ted Carter, commander of the Enterprise Strike Group, said as Naval Station Norfolk came into view and his sailors manned the rails.

However, Carter is the first to say that the Enterprise's final deployment was anything but a sentimental victory lap. The ships' fighter planes flew more than 2,200 combat sorties and dropped 56 bombs in Afghanistan while supporting U.S. and international ground troops. In a show of force to Iran, the ship also passed through the strategic Strait of Hormuz 10 times, a figure that Carter said is more than double the typical amount.

The Enterprise has been a frequent traveller to the Middle East over its career. It was the first nuclear-powered carrier to transit through the Suez Canal in 1986, and it was the first carrier to respond following the Sept. 11 attacks, changing course overnight to head to the Arabian Sea.

An entire room on the ship serves as a museum to its history, which includes a large photo of the burning Twin Towers placed in a timeline that wraps around a wall.

The Navy will officially deactivate the Enterprise on Dec. 1, but it will take several more years for it to be decommissioned as its reactors are taken out. About 15,000 people are expected to attend the deactivation ceremony, which will be its last public ceremony after several days of tours for former crew members.

Those who have served on the ship have a unique camaraderie. It is the second-oldest ship in the Navy after the USS Constitution, and its age has frequently shown. Sailors who work on the Enterprise have a saying: "There's tough, then there's Enterprise tough."

Things frequently break down, and spare parts for a ship that's the only one in its class aren't made anymore.

"She's just old, so you got to work around her," said Petty Officer 2nd Class Danielle Almarez, an electronic technician. "We have to make our own parts sometimes because it just doesn't exist."

Some of the ship's original crewmembers from 51 years ago -- known as plank owners -- were among the 1,500 civilians who joined the Enterprise for its last two days at sea, known as a Tiger Cruise.

"This is the end of an era that I helped start, so I was just honoured that the captain invited me on board. There's no way I'd turn that down," said original crew member Ray Godfrey of Colorado Springs, Colo.

The aircraft carrier is the eighth U.S. ship to bear the name Enterprise, with the first one being confiscated from the British by Benedict Arnold in 1775. Current sailors and alumni like Godfrey are lobbying to have a future carrier also named Enterprise. The ship's crew created a time capsule to be passed along to each Navy secretary until a new ship carries its name...

I've heard rumors she is to be scrapped. I pray not. It would be more fitting to shuttle her.

Hopefully we see another Enterprise in the Gerald Ford series.

RIP USS Enterprise. You have served your country well.

Yes this country is in distress and it's Mourning in America

DAY AFTER ELECTION CONTROVERSY: Upside-down flag at McDonald's flies at half staff

A Channel 11 News crew on Wednesday visited a McDonald's in Follansbee, W.Va., where an American flag was seen flying upside down and at half-staff on the morning after the election.

Channel 11’s sister station WTOV reported that the flag in question was taken down at approximately 11:30 a.m., but not before the news organization captured video of it.

Flying the flag upside down is generally a sign of distress. This has many people wondering whether the McDonald's incident was some sort of protest in response to Tuesday night's presidential election results.

WTOV was initially told that it was the "owner's decision," but the owner, Karen Mezan, subsequently told Channel 11's Amy Marcinkiewicz that the episode was a mistake, and it's now being blown way out of proportion.

Mezan told Marcinkiewicz the mistake was fixed as soon as it was brought to her attention. She said the flag was put up at 4:30 a.m. and the person who put it up simply made a mistake in the dark.

However, not everyone agrees with Mezan.

“I think it’s a stab at us. I don’t understand why anyone would want to do this,” veteran Lou Headman said. “We know it was because of the election.”

The incident has created a large buzz on the WPXI Facebook page with thousands of viewers commenting.

“Part of why the United States is a great nation is because people can speak their mind and not be imprisoned,” Paul Hansen said.

“This is disgusting and I will not be eating at any McDonald’s for the rest of my life,” Cynthia Clark said.

Gee Ms Clark, I wonder if you find this disturbing:

God help us all.

Officer Down

Police Officer Shawn A. Smiley
Atlanta George Police Department
End of Watch: Saturday, November 3, 2012
Age: 40
Tour: 2 years
Badge # 6635

Police Officer Richard J. Halford
Atlanta Georgia Police Department
End of Watch: Saturday, November 3, 2012
Age: 48
Tour: 26 years
Badge # 3788

Police Officers Shawn Smiley and Richard Halford were killed in a helicopter crash while assisting in the search for a missing 9-year-old boy at approximately 10:30 pm.

They were flying low over an area approximately four miles west of downtown when the Hughes OH-6A helicopter suddenly crashed to the ground near the intersection of Martin Luther King Jr. Drive and Hamilton E. Holmes Drive. The helicopter exploded after impacting the ground. The cause of the crash is under investigation by the NTSB and FAA.

The boy they were searching for was found safe a short time later.

Officer Smiley had served with the Atlanta Police Department for two years and had been assigned as a tactical flight officer in the Air Unit for one year. He is survived by his wife and three children.

Officer Halford had served with the Atlanta Police Department for 26 years and had been assigned as a pilot in the Air Unit for 16 years. He is survived by his daughter.

Rest in Peace.…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Security Weekly: The Real 'El Chapo', November 1st, 2012

By Scott Stewart

A widely propagated myth would have us believe that Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera and his Sinaloa Federation are less violent than many of their competitors. Statements from journalists and analysts allege that Sinaloa is more businesslike than Los Zetas, whose reputation for brutality is well-documented, and that this business savvy somehow renders the group relatively benign. In turn, this has led many to believe that the Mexican government could broker a deal with the leader of one of Mexico's largest criminal organizations.

However, a close examination of Sinaloa's evolution demonstrates the group is hardly the hallmark of civility. In fact, the history of Mexico's cartel wars over the past decade reveals that Guzman, his Sinaloa Federation and the various cartels with which they partner have been more territorially aggressive than any other Mexican cartel.

Expansion and Escalation

Sinaloa incursions upset the balance of power that Miguel Angel "El Padrino" Felix Gallardo established in the late 1980s when he appropriated criminal territories to Guzman and his other lieutenants. Tens of thousands of people have died from the wars that arose from this imbalance.

This is because Guzman's expansion efforts necessarily entailed encroaching on a rival's turf. In the early 1990s, he sent forces from Sinaloa state into Tijuana, Baja California state -- controlled at the time by the Arellano Felix brothers -- to buy stash houses and construct a tunnel for moving drugs across the border. In response, the brothers tortured and killed Sinaloa operatives in Tijuana; they even tried to assassinate Guzman. Sinaloa retaliated in November 1992, when its operatives tried to kill Francisco Javier and Ramon Arellano Felix in a Puerto Vallarta nightclub.

The Sinaloa-Arellano Felix brothers war marked the beginning of an escalation in Mexico's cartel war. Cartels began to hire police officers to work as enforcers. Eventually, the Gulf cartel formed Los Zetas, a group largely composed of former soldiers from Mexican Airmobile Special Forces. Cartel warfare thus was militarized. Enforcer groups were no longer untrained thugs with guns; they were trained fire teams that knew how to maneuver and use their weapons.

Seeking shelter from the Arellano Felix brothers, Guzman fled to Guatemala but was arrested in June of 1993. He was extradited to Mexico, where he continued to run his criminal enterprises from the safety of a prison cell until he escaped in January 2001.

When Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen was arrested in March 2003, Guzman saw an opportunity to make a move on the Gulf cartel's territory, especially the lucrative plaza of Nuevo Laredo, the busiest point of entry for trucks into the United States from Mexico that provides direct access to the Interstate Highway 35 corridor.

Guzman's push into Nuevo Laredo was spearheaded by the Beltran Leyva brothers, who convinced local gangs such as Los Chachos to turn against the Gulf cartel. Beltran Leyva gunmen aided local forces, and eventually a hybrid group was formed when a U.S. citizen and member of Los Chachos named Edgar "La Barbie" Valdez Villarreal assumed command of Sinaloa enforcer group Los Negros.

Los Zetas responded strongly to the Sinaloa incursion into Nuevo Laredo and a bloody struggle erupted for control of the city. By mid-2005, law and order had almost completely broken down in Nuevo Laredo, and then-President Vicente Fox deployed federal police and army units to take control of the town. But even these forces proved insufficient to stop the violence, which persisted for three years until it became evident that Los Zetas were not going to be defeated. By that time, Guzman had begun focusing on other places to expand.

A Boss of Many Groups

On Sept. 11, 2004, Sinaloa hit men gunned down Rodolfo Carrillo Fuentes, a leader of the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes organization, also known as the Juarez cartel, as he left a theater in Culiacan, Sinaloa state. Rodolfo's brother Vicente retaliated by having Guzman's brother murdered in prison. This chain of events set off a war between the two organizations for control of the Juarez and Chihuahua City plazas that continues to this day. (While the Juarez cartel is just a shadow of its former self -- Sinaloa has all but consolidated control of Chihuahua state -- Chihuahua nonetheless remains the second-deadliest state in Mexico because of this struggle.)

Sinaloa meanwhile had resumed its efforts to control Tijuana. A string of arrests and the deaths of the Arellano Felix brothers, who constituted the core leadership of the Arellano Felix Organization, severely degraded the group's operational capability. In early 2008, internal fighting between the faction loyal to the Arellano Felix brothers' successor, Luis Fernando "El Ingeniero" Sanchez Arellano, and those loyal to the group's top enforcer, Teodoro "El Teo" Garcia Simental, further degraded the organization. This conflict sparked marked levels of violence in the region until Mexican federal police dismantled the Garcia faction.

Desperate for support against Sanchez Arellano, Garcia sought protection from the Sinaloa Federation, which he knew had been trying to claim Tijuana for years. Ultimately the strategy failed, but the protracted battle left the Sanchez Arellano faction of the AFO extremely weak. In the latter half of 2010, the Sinaloa Federation used the opening afforded by Garcia to solidify control over parts of western Baja California state, namely the Tecate and Mexicali regions, positioning itself to seize Tijuana.

Knowing it could not withstand another lengthy battle against a much larger and resourceful group, the AFO struck a deal with Sinaloa whereby both groups would operate independently and abide by a non-aggression pact. With Tijuana secured, Sinaloa controlled the plazas from Juarez west to Tijuana.

In a similar scenario, the Gulf cartel turned to Sinaloa and La Familia Michoacana for help against Los Zetas, which had broken off from its parent group in early 2010. The three groups formed an alliance that referred to itself as the New Federation. Guzman's attention once again was drawn to the lucrative smuggling corridors in the northeast. With help from Sinaloa and La Familia Michoacana gunmen, the Gulf cartel was able to push Los Zetas out of Reynosa, and by mid-2010, Los Zetas were under heavy pressure from the forces of the New Federation. However, several events that year, including the July 29 death of Guzman's close ally, Ignacio "El Nacho" Coronel, and the Dec. 10 death of La Familia Michoacana leader Nazario "El Mas Loco" Moreno Gonzalez, gave Los Zetas an opportunity to recover.

In 2011, Sinaloa undertook another major incursion into Los Zetas territory, this time targeting Veracruz. In doing so, it used another proxy group as muscle -- the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, comprising the remnants of Coronel's organization that traveled across Mexico from their home turf in Guadalajara. Sometimes operating under the moniker Los Matazetas, the CJNG began killing Los Zetas -- and people it believed to be Los Zetas supporters -- in Veracruz. In late September and early October of 2011, the CJNG conducted several high-profile body dumps of individuals deemed Los Zetas. In one incident on Sept. 20, 2011, 35 bodies were dumped on a street in heavy traffic. It was later determined that most of these victims were not members of Los Zetas.

As the CJNG shows, the Sinaloa cartel has formed several enforcer groups over the past decade. These groups have included Los Negros, the CJNG, La Gente Nueva (also known as Los Chapos) and Los Antrax. Such organizations operate under their own names, just as Los Zetas did when they were the armed wing of the Gulf cartel. But like Los Zetas, who acted on behalf on the Gulf cartel, Sinaloa enforcers act at the behest of Guzman and his lieutenants.

Instances of Sinaloa brutality abound. Los Negros leader Valdez tortured and executed four Los Zetas members in a video sent to the Dallas Morning News; the CJNG dumped 35 bodies in downtown Veracruz; and Sinaloa enforcers left groups of dismembered bodies in Nuevo Laredo accompanied by narcomantas signed "El Chapo" on several occasions between March and May of 2012. These are actions of the Sinaloa cartel, and they are every bit as vicious as the actions of other groups.

Some believe that peace ensues once the Sinaloa cartel asserts its control over an area, but that is not necessarily true. Violence decreased in Juarez after Sinaloa wrested control of the plaza, but Chihuahua continues to struggle with violence. In fact, three of the four most violent states in Mexico -- Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Guerrero -- are in Sinaloa's area of control. There are no quick solutions to Mexico's violence, and there is no reason to believe a government pact with Guzman would prove otherwise.

The Real 'El Chapo' is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Officer Down

Border Patrol Agent David Richard Delaney
United States Department of Homeland Security - Customs and Border Protection
End of Watch: Friday, November 2, 2012
Age: 44
Tour: 10 years
Badge # A-51

Border Patrol Agent David Delaney died after suffering a medical emergency while on foot patrol in Brewster County, Texas.

He was in the process of hiking to a location near Big Bend National Park to setup a camera when he suffered the medical emergency.

Agent Delaney had served with the United States Border Patrol for 10 years and was assigned to the Big Bend Sector. He is survived by his wife, son, and two daughters.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Darth and Anakin.....

From the NY Puke, via this morning's Houston Chronicle:

Former VP Cheney

VP Elect Ryan

Ryan, Quiet for Now, Is Said to Be Planning for an Active Role

CINCINNATI — Representative Paul D. Ryan may have largely disappeared from the national spotlight down the campaign homestretch, ceding attention to Mitt Romney. But if the Republican ticket prevails, Mr. Ryan plans to come back roaring, establishing an activist vice presidency that he said would look like Dick Cheney’s under President George W. Bush.

Mr. Ryan would dedicate most evenings to dinners with senators and House members of both parties, aides said, as he steps into the role Mr. Romney promised: architect of a Romney administration’s drive to enact a budget that shrinks the government and overhauls programs like Medicare...

...The prospect of a deeply engaged vice president was described in interviews with campaign aides, close House colleagues and the few times Mr. Ryan has discussed his potential future job. Asked by a reporter last month if he expected the kind of broad responsibility for the economy that Mr. Cheney held for national security — as an aide suggested — Mr. Ryan said, “I do.”

“A large reason he was chosen was to help Romney govern,” an adviser to the campaign said. “Paul’s going to focus on being a partner.”

Democrats in the Bush years, of course, criticized Mr. Cheney for usurping for himself a kind of co-presidency.

Strange. I don't recall any Democrats raising any questions of a co-presidency with Bubba and Mrs Bill Clinton. Remember, when Billy said "You get two for one." Wouldn't just be typical leftist hypocrisy would it?  No, I didn't think so.

Mr. Ryan and Mr. Romney seem to have an effective partnership on the trail; the younger man has been deferential to a fault since he was tapped for the ticket, modifying long-held positions to conform with Mr. Romney’s. That said, Mr. Ryan has made clear that he would not be relegated only to attending funerals.

Before Mr. Ryan accepted the nomination, aides said, he had extensive conversations about his position with Mr. Romney, who assured him he would play a guiding role on fiscal and economic matters. Already seen as an intellectual leader of the Republican Party because of his sweeping House budget proposals, Mr. Ryan would wield the clout that comes from being recognized as the party’s most likely next in line for the presidency, prominent Republicans said.

“My guess is Paul will be an extraordinarily consequential vice president,” said Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a member of the Republican House leadership, who was a visitor to the Ryan family box during the Republican convention in August. “He’s going to play an important role in outlining, shaping and passing the Romney agenda from the day he walks in the door.”

“He becomes emissary in chief to the Hill,” Mr. Cole continued, “especially to House Republicans, who are likely to become the tip of the spear in terms of anything Romney wants to do.”...

...Aides to Mr. Ryan said that he received congratulatory phone calls when he was selected from former Vice Presidents Cheney and Dan Quayle, but that they did not offer him counsel on how to define a role as vice president.

Mr. Ryan’s friends and aides said his disarming personality and willingness to listen to opponents had made him well liked by lawmakers of both parties; and he would continue to build bridges through regular dinner discussions, he told aides. On a return to the House floor for a vote in September, Mr. Ryan spent several minutes in friendly conversation with Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the Democratic whip.

“I think Mitt Romney wants to be realistic, but also work in a bipartisan way,” said Representative Jason Chaffetz of Utah, a Tea Party favorite who is a friend of Mr. Ryan’s. “You’re not going to get to the finish line unless you can get the House and the Senate to come together.”

Among Mr. Ryan’s advisers on the campaign trail, many of whom come from the office of House Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, it is accepted wisdom that one of President Obama’s biggest failings was to hold himself apart from lawmakers. Thus, the thinking goes, the president lacked the relationships to build bipartisan support on issues like health care and debt reduction.

But Democratic lawmakers who have worked with Mr. Ryan said that he has no record of compromise. They said his idea of a meeting of the minds was sticking to his guns and persuading opponents that he was right.

“He lives in an ideological bubble,” said Representative Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, a Democratic member of the House Budget Committee that Mr. Ryan heads. “I’ve been on the Budget Committee two other times. The lack of bipartisanship was striking” under Mr. Ryan.

I'm hearing this from a party that slammed Obamacare down the throat of the American people with no Republican input or support, same with the Porkulus Bill and Dodd's Frank. Who the hell are you to speak of a lack of bipartisanship

Hey, I can't think of a greater roll model for a Veep than Darth. If you want some real examples of what not to be, see ALGORE or our current number two, Joe Bite-Me, aka B Hussein Obama's assassination insurance policy.

The Muppets really have support there.....

As I recover from too few hours of sleep even with the "fall back" I saw coverage of the Million Muppet March on the Sunday sites.

Like the original Million Man March it was far short of the announced goal. But unlike the MMM this didn't have at least a partial strong point. Farrakhan was adamant about men in the inner cities taking responsible for their children. But here is a handful of people wanting to keep Bird Bird on the public dole.

'Million Puppet March' descends on D.C. after Romney's PBS defunding promise

Several hundred - though not a million - supporters of U.S. public broadcasting descended on Capitol Hill on Saturday in what was called the “Million Puppet March.” The march was prompted by GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s promise, during a televised debate with President Barack Obama a month ago, to halt government funding of PBS if he wins the election on Tuesday.

During the first of three presidential debates, Romney told moderator Jim Lehrer:

I like PBS. I love Big Bird. I actually like you, too (Lehrer's show is on PBS). But I’m not gonna keep on spending money on things to borrow from China to pay for.

On Saturday, “Sesame Street” characters such as Big Bird and Kermit the Frog were accompanied by other Muppets and puppets. In addition, also seen was a protester wearing a latex Romney mask and a Halloween-themed group that dubbed itself “the finest skeletons from the national closet.”

"Million Puppet March" co-organizer Michael Bellavia said,

It’s not just "Sesame Street." We’re saying we want to support the whole ecosystem of public media - everything from the TV side, to radio, to all the Internet media that gets produced.

Romney’s targeting of PBS attracted criticism, particularly since the $444 million 2011 federal subsidy for the Corporation of Public Broadcasting accounted for .037 percent of the nation's $1.2 trillion deficit. Notably, as viewers of PBS can attest, most of its funding comes via donations (as evidenced by its numerous pledge drives).

That said, fifteen percent of the overall public broadcasting budget in the United States comes from Washington, while contributions from foundations and individuals makes up the rest.

No Mr Bellavia, we like Big Bird, etc. We, the American people, are simply looking at the funding of the Corporatoin for Public Broadcasting as an hold back from a time leftist overindulgence. And when public broadcasting was started there were only five channels on the TV. Now it's in the 100s and in days of multi-trillion dollar deficits and a 16 trilliion dollar national debt this 400 million dollar annual line item is something we cannot afford.

When I was young Army officer someone put budgeting into three sectors: Must Do, Should Do, Like To Do. Big Bird et all make a fortune with merchandising and can live on their own. Self reliance. That is a much better lesson to teach our children than "It's not easy being green."

Here are some of the pictures:

Officer Down

Police Officer Arthur Lopez
Nassau County New York Police Department
End of Watch: Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Age: 29
Tour: 8 years

Police Officer Arthur Lopez was shot and killed while attempting to arrest a hit-and-run driver at the intersection of 241st Street and Jamaica Avenue.

Officer Lopez and his partner observed a vehicle they believed had been involved in the hit-and-run accident near the border of Nassau County and New York City. The officers followed the vehicle into Queens, where they conducted a vehicle stop. The subject opened fire on the officers after they approached and exchanged words. Officer Lopez, who was not wearing a vest, was struck in the chest. The subject then fled in his vehicle. He abandoned his vehicle and carjacked a citizen, fatally shooting the driver.

Officer Lopez was transported to North Shore Long Island Jewish Hospital where he succumbed to his wounds.

The subject was arrested several hours later and was suffering two self-inflicted gunshot wounds. He was identified as a former convict who had served four years for attempted murder. He was subsequently charged with two counts of first-degree murder for murdering Officer Lopez and the civilian. A second subject was arrested and charged in connection with providing the subject with the firearm used to commit the murders.

Officer Lopez had served with the Nassau County Police Department for eight years and was assigned to the Emergency Services Unit.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Unions prevent help to New Jersey residents

And you wonder why our formerly great cities in the North East are dead:

WAFF-TV: News, Weather and Sports for Huntsville, AL

Decatur Utilities: Crews told to affiliate with union to help with recovery

The hurricane-ravaged east coast has been receiving north Alabama help, but crews learned they could not help out in New Jersey unless they affiliated with a union.

A six man crew from Decatur Utilities headed up there this week, but Derrick Moore, one of the Decatur workers, said they were told by crews in New Jersey that they can't do any work there since they're not union employees.

The general manager of Decatur Utilities, Ray Hardin told Fox Business they were presented documents from the International Brotherhood of Electric Workers at a staging area in Virginia. The documents stated they had to affiliate with a union to work, which the crews could not agree to.

Hardin said the crews were told this was a requirement to work.

As they waited for confirmation on the documents, crews received word that Seaside Heights had received the assistance they needed from other sources.

They attempted to look for work in other areas but because a resolution could not be reached, they made the decision late Thursday night to return home.

Moore said they're frustrated being told "thanks, but no thanks."...

...Joe Wheeler EMC said they did not respond to New Jersey, but did go up to Maryland and headed home once they were done.

My brother works in sheet rocking and this is a story I love to tell. Around 1989 there was a hotel in NY City that was going through a refurbishing. I don’t recall how the hotel staff got his company involved in this but this NY City hotel hired my brother’s company from New Orleans. They moved his crew into the hotel and paid them more than they would ever make in New Orleans. And flew them home (as I recall) every third weekend to see their families. My brother’s company finished the job in just over a year and it cost the company less than half of local labor which would have taken them at least two years.

Now, as the state has been wiped out these union thugs want to stop help from non union Alabama from fixing their electricity.

Jersey and New York, you wonder why you are dying? Hey B Hussein Obama, Christie and FEMA, how about you waive union rules for this week.

An Aussie getting his due....and thank you

Great work CPL Keighran!

Victoria Cross recipient Daniel Keighran had 'no idea' he wasn't shot soon after the battle

Corporal Keighran was honoured today for his role in the gunfight, where he helped clear the way for the rescue of casualties.

During the battle between Australian and Afghan troops, he repeatedly broke cover to draw fire, allowing the enemy locations to be identified and neutralised.

In the citation it was noted the enemy fire was "accurate and intense". He repeatedly exposed himself to life-threatening gunfire coming from multiple directions.

On one occasion he moved from cover to draw fire away from a team that was treating a casualty, and then assisted in clearing the landing zone for an evacuation. The Australian and Afghan forces sustained no further injuries.

Speaking to Channel Nine soon after the battle, he said he had "no idea" how he avoided being shot...

...After the ceremony, Corporal Keighran told of his "utter surprise" when he was told the Queen was awarding him the Victoria Cross.

He said he wouldn't be here today "if it wasn't for the boys that I served with"...

Here is the video of the actual shootout.



Thanks to Bayou Renaissance Man for the report.

Geopolitical Weekly: U.S. Presidential Elections in Perspective, October 30, 2012

By George Friedman

The U.S. presidential election will be held a week from today, and if the polls are correct, the outcome will be extraordinarily close. Many say that the country has never been as deeply divided. In discussing the debates last week, I noted how this year's campaign is far from the most bitter and vitriolic. It might therefore be useful also to consider that while the electorate at the moment appears evenly and deeply divided, unlike what many say, that does not reveal deep divisions in our society -- unless our society has always been deeply divided.

Since 1820, the last year an uncontested election was held, most presidential elections have been extremely close. Lyndon B. Johnson received the largest percentage of votes any president has ever had in 1964, taking 61.5 percent of the vote. Three other presidents broke the 60 percent mark: Warren G. Harding in 1920, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 and Richard Nixon in 1972.

Nine elections saw a candidate win between 55 and 60 percent of the vote: Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, Theodore Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan. Only Eisenhower broke 55 percent twice. Candidates who received less than 50 percent of the vote won 18 presidential elections. These included Lincoln in his first election, Woodrow Wilson in both elections, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Nixon in his first election and Bill Clinton in both his elections.

From 1824 to 2008, 13 elections ended in someone obtaining more than 55 percent but never more than 61 percent of the vote. Eighteen elections ended with the president receiving less than 50 percent of the vote. The remaining 16 elections ended with the winner receiving between 50-55 percent of the vote, in many cases barely above 50 percent -- meaning almost half the country voted for someone else. The United States not only always has had deeply divided elections, but in many cases, minority presidents. Interestingly, of the four presidents who won more than 60 percent of the vote, three are not remembered favorably: Harding, Johnson and Nixon.

Three observations follow. First, for almost 200 years the electoral process has consistently produced a division in the country never greater than 60-40 and heavily tending toward a much narrower margin. Second, when third parties had a significant impact on the election, winners won five times with 45 percent of the vote or less. Third, in 26 U.S. presidential elections, the winner received less than 52 percent of the vote.

Even in the most one-sided elections, nearly 40 percent of voters voted against the winner. The most popular presidents still had 40 percent of votes cast against them. All other elections took place with more than 40 percent opposition. The consistency here is striking. Even in the most extreme cases of national crisis and a weak opponent, it was impossible to rise above just over 60 percent. The built-in opposition of 40 percent, regardless of circumstances or party, has therefore persisted for almost two centuries. But except in the case of the 1860 election, the deep division did not lead to a threat to the regime. On the contrary, the regime has flourished -- again, 1860 excepted -- in spite of these persistent divisions.

The Politically Indifferent

Why then is the United States so deeply and persistently divided and why does this division rarely lead to unrest, let alone regime change? Let us consider this seeming paradox in light of another fact, namely, that a substantial portion of the electorate doesn't vote at all. This fact frequently is noted, usually as a sign of a decline in civic virtue. But let's look at it another way.

First, let's think of it logistically. The United States is one of the few countries that has not made Election Day a national holiday or held its presidential elections on a weekend. That means that there is work and school on Election Day in the United States. In the face of the tasks of getting the kids off to school, getting to work, picking up the kids on the way home -- all while fighting traffic -- and then getting dinner on the table, the urgency of exercising the franchise pales. It should therefore be no surprise that older people are more likely to vote.

Low voter turnout could also indicate alienation from the system. But alienation sufficient to explain low voter turnout should have generated more unrest over two centuries. When genuine alienation was present, as in 1860, voter turnout rose and violence followed. Other than that, unrest hasn't followed presidential elections. To me, that so many people don't vote does not indicate widespread alienation as much as indifference: The outcome of the election is simply less important to many than picking up the kids from piano lessons.

It is equally plausible that low voter turnout indicates voter satisfaction with both candidates. Some have noted that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney sound less different than they portray themselves as being. Some voters might figure there is not much difference between the two and that they can therefore live with either in office.

Another explanation is that some voters feel indifferent to the president and politics in general. They don't abstain because they are alienated from the system but because they understand the system as being designed such that outcomes don't matter. The Founding Fathers' constitutional system leaves the president remarkably weak. In light of this, while politically attentive people might care who is elected, the politically indifferent might have a much shrewder evaluation of the nature of the presidency.

The Role of Ideologues

The United States always has had ideologues who have viewed political parties as vehicles for expressing ideologies and reshaping the country. While the ideologies have changed since Federalists faced off against Democratic-Republicans, an ideological divide always has separated the two main parties. At the same time, the ranks of the true ideologues -- those who would prefer to lose elections to winning with a platform that ran counter to their principles -- were relatively sparse. The majority of any party was never as ideologically committed as the ideologues. A Whig might have thought of himself as a member of the Whig Party when he thought of himself in political terms at all, but most of the time he did not think of himself as political. Politics were marginal to his identity, and while he might tend to vote Whig, as one moved to less committed elements of the party, Whigs could easily switch sides.

The four elections in which presidents received 60 percent or more were all ideological and occurred at times of crisis: Johnson in 1964 defeated Barry Goldwater, a highly ideological candidate, in the aftermath of the Kennedy assassination; Roosevelt defeated Alf Landon, an anti-Roosevelt ideologue, during the depths of the Depression; Nixon defeated George McGovern, an anti-war ideologue, during the era of the Vietnam War and the anti-war challenge; and Warren G. Harding won in the wake of World War I and the latter debacles of the Wilson administration and its ideology.

Crisis tends to create the most extreme expressions of hostility to a challenging ideology and creates the broadest coalition possible, 60 percent. Meanwhile, 40 percent remain in opposition to the majority under any circumstances. To put it somewhat differently -- and now we get to the most significant point -- about 40 percent of the voting public cannot be persuaded to shift from their party under any circumstances, while about 20 percent are either persuadable or represent an unrooted voter who shifts from election to election.

The 60-40 break occurs rarely, when the ideological bent rallies the core and the national crisis allows one party to attract a larger block than normal to halt the less popular ideology. But this is the extreme of American politics; the normal election is much narrower.

This is because the ideologues in the parties fail to draw in the center. The weaker party members remain in their party's orbit and the 20 percent undecided distribute themselves fairly randomly, depending on their degree of indifference, so that the final vote depends on no more than a few percentage points shifting one way or another.

This is not a sign of massive divisions. Whereas the 60-40 elections are the moments of deepest political tension in which one side draws the center to it almost unanimously, in other elections -- particularly the large number in which the winner receives less that 55 percent of the vote (meaning that a 5 percent shift would change the outcome) -- the election is an election of relative indifference.

This is certainly not how ideologues view the election. For them, it is a struggle between light and darkness. Nor is it how the media and commentators view it. For them, it is always an election full of meaning. In reality, most elections are little remembered and decide little. Seemingly apocalyptic struggles that produce narrow margins do not represent a deeply divided country. The electoral division doesn't translate into passion for most of the voters, but into relative indifference with the recognition that here is another election "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

The fact that nearly 50 percent of the public chooses not to vote is our tipoff about the public's view of elections. That segment of the public simply doesn't care much about the outcome. The politically committed regard these people as unenlightened fools. In reality, perhaps these people know that the election really isn't nearly as important as the ideologues, media and professional politicians think it is, so they stay home.

Others vote, of course, but hardly with the intensity of the ideologues. Things the ideologues find outrageously trivial can sway the less committed. Such voters think of politics in a very different way than the ideologues do. They think of it as something that doesn't define their lives or the republic. They think of politicians as fairly indistinguishable, and they are aware that the ideological passions will melt in the face of presidential responsibility. And while they care a bit more than those who stay home, they usually do not care all that much more.

The United States has elected presidents with the narrowest of margins and presidents who had far less than a majority. In many countries, this might reveal deep divisions leading to social unrest. It doesn't mean this in the United States because while the division can be measured, it isn't very deep and by most, it will hardly be remembered.

The polls say the election will be very close. If that is true, someone will be selected late at night after Ohio makes up its mind. The passionate on the losing side will charge fraud and election stealing. The rest of the country will get up the next day and go back to work just as they did four years ago, and the republic will go on.

U.S. Presidential Elections in Perspective is republished with permission of Stratfor.