A new look at Use of Force and Training.

Since the justified shooting of Mike Brown was used by the Obama Justice Department and the idiot who currently occupies the White House (no, this is not objective, not lying about it) used it to inflame people and led to riots and unjustified legal action against police, the usual suspects have said we need to relook at Use of Force. I'm the first to say doctrine and training should adjust as time goes on. In my lifetime an officer could fire a warning shot at a fleeing suspect and that was stopped. Gotta say that was right, the bullet will end up somewhere.

That as context for my comments, here is an article on a recent think tank forum on the issue.

A Revolution in Use-of-Force Policy and Training?

A battle is brewing among law enforcement leadership organizations about whether and how to change police use-of-force policy and training to be kinder and gentler. As the public, the media, and law enforcement professionals grapple with the persistent post-Ferguson issues, you on the street are surely scratching your heads.

In January, the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, weighed in with "30 Guiding Principles" at its meeting titled, "Use of Force: Taking Policing to a Higher Standard." These guidelines for use of force and use-of-force training sparked a lot of conversation among officers and those who believe officers have a tendency to use too much force.

"There is a real mismatch between what community standards are, what the community expects, what they think the law should be, versus what the training and the law allows for," Vanita Gupta, the Department of Justice's assistant attorney general for civil rights, told the Washington Post. Gupta said a national conversation about police objective reasonableness was potentially "revolutionary."

PERF Executive Director Chuck Wexler wrote in an e-mail to all PERF members: "In short, PERF's members are telling us that we need to take use-of-force policies and training to a higher standard than what is currently required by the court system. The Supreme Court's landmark ruling from 1989 in Graham v. Connor provides guidance on when police officers are allowed to use deadly force, but it doesn't provide guidance on how to avoid use of deadly force. In certain types of situations that occur thousands of times a year, police are confronted with persons wielding knives, rocks, or other weapons—not guns. In these cases, we are asking police departments to begin rethinking strategies and equipping officers with the appropriate training and tactics to defuse these potentially volatile encounters, in a way that ensures that both the officers and those they are dealing with may survive the encounter."...

First, the issue in Graham v. Connor was not use of options other than deadly force, but if force was reasonable and justified in the case of Mr. Graham being detained for investigation. Well anyone with some knowledge of the law and SCOTUS knows that the court generally goes to get pains to limit the ruling to issues raised by the complainant.

Some of the research that was used as the foundation of the PERF guidelines resulted from a trip to Scotland by several U.S. law enforcement leaders, to see how business is done over there. Scotland doesn't have a gun-crime problem, but they confront a lot of knives.

As if on cue, within 24 hours two police officers (one with the New York Police Department and one with the California Highway Patrol) were attacked and wounded by knife-wielding suspects.

The Wrong Track

No doubt some (perhaps many) PERF members agree with the organization's 30 Guiding Principles. But not everyone agrees with all of them. As a longtime PERF member and also a longtime member of the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP), I and quite a few other PERF and IACP members I've spoken with do not necessarily think PERF is on the right track with some of its specific recommendations.

Here are a few comments I received in early February from police chiefs, trainers, and use-of-force experts:

"Why should my safety not be more important than anyone else's?"

"A smart cop reading through this bulls--- will salute smartly, smile, promise compliance, and then go out and do nothing, or as close to nothing as he can do without being fired or ruining his career."

"I agree with the stated concern of how to 'raise the standard' and still have a consistent standard that officers can understand… But I don't know how you change the standard for fast-moving situations where the officer is faced with a quick, threatening movement, even when the perceived threat turns out not to be a threat."

"I was sorry to see PERF not address training in basic skills."

"Much of the material is good, but it lacks that practical side that only comes from spirited, well-rounded, and educated debate."

Dissenting Views

The IACP quickly responded to PERF in an e-mail to its membership: "[T]he IACP is extremely concerned about calls to require law enforcement agencies to unilaterally, and haphazardly, establish use-of-force guidelines that exceed the "objectively reasonable" standard set forth by the U.S. Supreme Court nearly 30 years ago (Graham v. Connor). The creation of a multitude of differing policies and use-of-force standards throughout the United States would, undoubtedly, lead to both confusion and hesitation on behalf of law enforcement officers, which in turn would threaten both their safety and that of the citizens they are sworn to protect… As we move forward in examining law enforcement's policies and training procedures regarding use of force it is imperative that any reforms be carefully researched and evidence-based."

The next day, the Police Foundation released an infographic titled, "When Can the Police Use Force—and What Happens When They Do?" And in related remarks, the Police Foundation wrote: "Use of force is governed by laws at the federal and local levels, and its justification is dependent on the reasonable perspective of the involved officers at the very moment force was used—not on thoughtful, retrospective examination and questioning. Articulating and explaining this information to the public is critical because these incidents bring challenging and complex considerations that are often not apparent to the public. With this infographic, the public can be better informed about when the police can use force and how police are held accountable for use-of-force situations."

The Association of Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs (ALADS) weighed in a few days later: "'Hands up, don't shoot!' This is not a new protest group chant, but what law enforcement officers might be required to do, backing away with their hands up when confronting a violent situation… [T]he PERF proposals continue to focus all responsibility for the use of force, including deadly force, on the deputy or officer and absolve of any responsibility the suspect whose actions necessitated the use of force. In virtually every single instance of the use of force, had the suspect simply complied with the commands of law enforcement, use of force would not have been necessary."

The ALADS statement also quoted Executive Director Jim Pasco of the Fraternal Order of Police: "We don't believe that we should just move headlong based on PERF having taken a trip to Scotland, that we should just turn policing in a country, God knows how many times bigger than Scotland, totally on its head. We're not going to stand by and let police officers be sacrificed on the altar of political correctness."

Steps Too Far

There is much that is easy to support in the PERF principles. De-escalation training, slowing down incidents where circumstances allow it, intervening when another officer is over the line with use of force, thorough incident investigation and review processes, training that reflects agency values, improved training on handling the mentally ill… These are examples of items that I believe most law enforcement professionals support.

But misstatements by PERF about the so-called "21-foot rule" and misstatements about officer-involved shootings following failed TASER attempts in imminent deadly force situations make one wonder if anybody who has actually faced deadly threats was involved in the drafting of the document. Further, the 21-foot rule isn't a "rule," it's just a poor label for a reaction time experiment, and it most certainly does not mean that you always shoot a knife-holding suspect that is less than 21 feet from you.

Then there's the baffling PERF suggestion that, "If an encounter requires a use of force, officers should start at the lowest level of force that is possible and safe. Officers should never do anything to escalate a situation themselves."

Pardon me. Use of force that is safe? Established law says no use of force is "safe." In Garrett v. Athens Clarke County, 378 F.3d 1274, 1280, n.12 (11th Cir. 2004), the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled: "Almost every use of force, however minute, poses some risk of death."

And officers should never escalate? Folks, when verbalization fails, you escalate. When soft-hands-on tactics fail, you escalate. And you don't fight to a draw, you fight to win, quickly, which necessarily means using more force than is being used against you.

Getting Past the Noise

All of this rancor among police organizations over use-of-force policy and guidelines comes about in a tumultuous time of increased second-guessing of officers, rising violent crime rates, prolific videos, Black Lives Matter activism, fired officers and police chiefs, criminal prosecution of officers, controversy about "de-policing," and even politicized Super Bowl half-time entertainment.

Much of the current noise surrounds the question of whether law enforcement officers should be "warriors" or "guardians." People seem to have different definitions of these terms, so we talk past each other. Someone must bridge the Warrior-Guardian definitional divide between police leaders and the police on the street. We can't have a good discussion until we are on the same definitional page.

According to the Random House Dictionary, the term "warrior" has two meanings. The first applies to the military at war. The second is applicable to policing: "The term 'warrior' is often associated with images of power, confidence, accomplishment, integrity, chivalry, honor and integrity… They are disciplined… They develop mental focus… They develop an attitude of persistence… They train."

Guardians adopt a service mindset over a crime-fighting mindset, using patience and restraint while maintaining the capability to use force when appropriate....

Greg Meyer is a retired Los Angeles Police Department captain who consults nationwide on police procedures and tactics. He is a longtime member of the POLICE advisory board.

I've been off the net the last year as I've finished my masters and I'm reading up on this issue. Coming from most of my life on the streets, I look with jaundice eye at people sitting in a hotel conference room judging the actions of officers as they make instant lie and death decisions as their life is concerned. That being said, it is good to constantly re-evalutate training, doctrine, etc. But with the current administration and the polarized/politized Justice Department, guidance coming out now is not to be trusted.

The Rise and (Eventual) Fall of a Battery Technology

A little off the beaten path from what I normally post on, but I found this interesting as I was catching up on my emails. I've often said solar is close to a pipe-dream until battery technology catches up. Looks like we got a few steps forward here.

The Rise and (Eventual) Fall of a Battery Technology

Summary

Fire, the wheel, the compass, the internal combustion engine, the Internet: All are technologies that changed the world. Batteries could be next. Geographic constraints define geopolitics, but new technologies have the potential to overcome such constraints and, in doing so, to drastically change global dynamics. For this reason, we monitor technological advancements and developments, including in energy storage — batteries. Improvements to battery technology could shape our lives in remarkable ways, enhancing renewable energy integration into the power grid, making mobile robotics practical and reducing the price of electric vehicles in the not-so-distant future. If technologies advance to the point where current fuel sources (hydrocarbons) become less influential, the results will be quite literally earth-changing.

Analysis

The modern battery can trace its roots back to Alessandro Volta in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Soon after, the first commercially produced battery — using zinc, copper and a brine solution — was made available. In 1859, the first rechargeable battery was invented, and since then, numerous material combinations — including lead acid, nickel cadmium, nickel iron and most recently lithium — have been used to power the growing assortment of electric devices used daily.

Lithium-ion batteries are the current industry standard of battery technology, in terms of storage capacity and lifetime. Increased use is reflected in the quickly climbing price of lithium. With no alternative available for widespread use and commercialization, demand is only expected to grow. As the supply side makes advancements, the cost to manufacture batteries will decline, enabling even greater increases in the use of lithium-ion battery technology. These advancements will be evident in the transportation sector and in the storage of renewable energy. In fact, South Korea recently announced the deployment of the world's largest lithium nickel manganese cobalt, a specific type of lithium-ion battery that typically has a longer life than other material combinations, to support the country's power grid. Additional projects are expected to emerge — especially in East Asia, Europe and the United States — as renewable capacity increases.

As battery technology becomes even more widespread, the production of lithium will change political and economic relationships across the globe. It is often assumed that the Andean region of South America will gain the most from increased lithium demand, as its stores are more cheaply and easily recoverable than those in other regions. Chile, already one of the world's largest lithium producers, is in a particularly favorable position. Its lithium market is projected to see double-digit growth for the next several years, and will continue to climb alongside prices. (Global prices increased by 20 percent between September 2014 and October 2015 and are expected to increase by another 20 percent before 2018.) Neighboring Bolivia, which has similarly large lithium resources, will not fare quite as well, at least initially. It is underdeveloped and lacks the coastal access and political environment necessary to successfully compete with Chile and other global producers. Depending on future development and social advancements, it could eventually be a significant lithium producer. China and parts of the United States will also likely benefit as the industry expands. Australia, Brazil and Canada, where reserves are more expensive to exploit, could also benefit from an expanded market, especially if prices remain high enough.

Beyond Lithium

But to assume that lithium will be the primary battery type in the long term, or even the sole energy storage technology in the near term, is shortsighted. Lithium is a geographically concentrated and comparatively expensive material. This, along with the inherent physical limitations of existing technologies, means that research into building a better, cheaper battery can be expected to continue with fervor. Academic and industrial journals are littered with papers and announcements on new milestones that various battery technologies have reached.

The most interesting developments are those that move away from lithium and toward the cheaper, more abundant sodium. However, sodium ions are larger than lithium ions. This means that for sodium to be a viable alternative, the graphite currently used in battery anodes must be replaced with another material. Recent articles have proposed replacing graphite with discarded organic material, including leaves and apples. The carbonized forms of these natural materials appear to be much more suitable for sodium ions. A lot of work needs to be done — and other potential solutions exist — but the march toward a sodium-ion battery continues, as do frequent and unexpected breakthroughs.

What exactly could replace lithium is unknown at this point, but there are options in the research pipeline that could prove useful. Even as the industry standard, lithium-ion batteries face competition in every sector. Flow batteries — which are easily scalable because they allow electrons to flow between vats of fluid — are one option for grid storage, as are fuel cells, flywheels and supercapacitors. Though it may take a decade or more for a lithium-ion competitor to emerge, the drive toward cheaper, more abundant materials will continue.



In the meantime, lithium-ion batteries will advance and become more prevalent. And though, eventually, lithium-ion batteries may very well fill many of the roles that hydrocarbons now play, lithium will never have the same geopolitical importance as oil. Using gasoline as a fuel requires constant replenishment. Batteries must be recharged, but the materials inside do not need to be replaced. Batteries can also be recycled and lithium reused. While this is good news, perhaps, for the environment, it also limits the amount a country can gain by promoting lithium exports.

Over the course of history, society relied first on wood and wind for its energy before moving to coal, oil and natural gas. The next transition — conceivably, to batteries — is just getting started. With it will come the rise of a whole new set of commodities, best reflected by lithium's recent success and predicted growth. However, in all likelihood, lithium will eventually be replaced by something cheaper, more abundant and more universally accessible. Lithium's prospects in the near future are exciting, but the duration of its success will be limited.

The Rise and (Eventual) Fall of a Battery Technology "The Rise and (Eventual) Fall of a Battery Technology is republished with permission of Stratfor."

The Sheep Dog on The Watch

Trauma on the battlefield and The Watch

Earlier this week I went though crowd control training and one of the items covered was use of a tourniquet in case of a major injury. And we were told, in the era of the Boston Bombings, etc, we should expect more of this. Personally I started carrying on tourniquet in my body armor a couple of years ago, and after this class I'll carry two. Better to have and not need, that to need and not have.

From PoliceOne, a good review of lessons learned from the front, lessons that can help us on The Watch.

6 life-saving lessons for cops learned on the battlefield

In a critical incident, there is an unspecified amount of time where even the best intentioned EMTs may not be able to get to you — you are on your own

Mar 16, 2016

Much of what we do as police officers today in self-aid/buddy-aid was passed on by our military troops who paid a high price for the lessons learned. But what is now accepted practice for them is still somewhat of a hard sell for law enforcement. Many officers fall prey to complacency and an “it will never happen to me” attitude.

Calls for service are “come as you are” events. Absent the proper training and the necessary equipment on your person, the potential for a bad outcome is high. There are generally three categories of injuries in the field:

1. Injuries that no matter where you are or what resources are available, you are going to die

2. Injuries that no matter where you are or what resources are available, you're going to live

3. Injuries where what you do — or don’t do — before more definitive medical care is available will be the difference between whether you live or die

The third category of injuries is the area we must focus on. In a critical incident, there is an unspecified amount of time where even the best intentioned EMTs and paramedics may not be able to get to you — you are on your own. You must be prepared with the necessary training and equipment. Let’s look to a lesson learned in Iraq for an example of precisely how important this training and equipment is.

An Attack in Iraq
On September 11, 2004 — while deployed to Iraq — U.S. Army Staff Sergeant/Medic (ret.) Chris Cook was en route to the “Green Zone” hospital with blood samples from his unit's medical facility. A three-vehicle convoy was stopped by US forces due to a hidden Improvised Explosive Device (IED) that had been buried in the roadside and blocked their path. The convoy commander elected to stop (breaking a cardinal rule) and provide perimeter security while awaiting an Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team.

The convoy, consisting of three 1/2 armored Humvees armed with .50 caliber and M249 SAW machine guns, formed a 360 degree perimeter. Cook was positioned on the road side of the convoy. After approximately 30 minutes, a lone vehicle broke out of the normal traffic flow and drove in the direction of the convoy at a high rate of speed.

A little voice inside Cook’s head told him this was a bad thing — a very bad thing. His training kicked in as he raised his M16A2 rifle and aligned his sights on the forehead of the driver and squeezed off two rounds. Immediately after firing the second round, the vehicle exploded approximately 25-30 yards from Cook’s position. He doesn’t recall hearing the explosion, but saw a bright orange ball of flames and felt the heat from it. The force of the blast slammed him to the ground next to his Humvee which was engulfed in flames.

He grabbed the brush guards in an attempt to stand, but couldn’t. His vision was blurred as he looked down through his protective glasses. He flicked off his eyewear to see his left leg from the knee down twisted and backwards. Blood was visible on his camouflage uniform and he could read the blood type marked on the back of his boots. His right ankle had swollen to the size of a softball.

He tried to stand again, but couldn’t. Then the pain started — intense pain as if his legs were on fire. He flashed back to his training and heard his instructor’s voice yelling “ambush…ambush…ambush.”

One of his buddies came to his aid and dragged him clear of the burning vehicles. Cook — at over 200 lbs. fully kitted — was dead weight. As he rolled onto his back, he remembered that about a week prior, he’d been issued a Combat Application Tourniquet (CAT). CATs were issued to all medics with instructions to keep them handy at all times. He rolled onto his back, removed the CAT from a pocket on his body armor, and attempted to open it from the factory wrapper.

His heart was racing, his hands were shaking, his leg was visibly a mess, and he no longer had the fine motor skills to remove the CAT from its packaging. Fearing he would soon go unconscious and bleed out, he began to gnaw at the packaging. He was finally able to remove the CAT and apply it to his injured leg in time to save his life.

Lessons Learned
Cook was subsequently rescued by members of another unit who arrived on scene. He was taken to the 31st Combat Surgical Hospital in the “Green Zone,” which ironically was where he was headed before the explosion. There, he would undergo the first of 21 surgeries to repair the near amputation of his left leg, a fractured right ankle, and numerous other shrapnel injuries. This was the start of a long and arduous road to physical and mental recovery.

Many thoughts went through his mind during those critical moments. He offers the following key learning points:

1. Stop the threat. The best medical care in the world is of no value if you’re dead. That day, my training saved my life.

2. If you are going to carry a piece of equipment, whether it be in the military or law enforcement, train with it. Don’t just put it into a fancy MOLLE pouch and forget about it. In doing so, when the time comes, you will not have the necessary skills to use it effectively and efficiently.

3. Tourniquets must be placed on your kit so that they can be accessed with either hand. In the event one arm is incapacitated, it would be a shame to bleed to death from survivable extremity wound with a tourniquet only an arms-length away.

4. Unless the medical kit has to remain in the factory packaging to maintain sterility, remove it. Under stress, it’s unlikely you will possess the fine motor skills necessary to remove a tourniquet from its packaging.

5. Have a proven system in place for moving/dragging a casualty to safety and train with dead weight consistent with a real operator in full gear. This is not easy, but it’s absolutely essential.

6. Develop and maintain BUSHIDO — the “way of the warrior.” This mindset can and will help you triumph over your adversary, no matter your location, mission or circumstance...

I can't recall who said it, but it fits with this story: "Any fool can learn from his own mistakes. I want to learn from other men's mistakes."

Be safe out there.

The Left and Western Civilization: A Hate Story.

I remember years ago that idiot who calls himself a reverend, Jessee Jackson, chanting at a university, "Hey Hey! Ho Ho! Western Civ has got to go!" And one by one universities began to eliminate one of the basic tenants of a well rounded education, a look at Western Civilization. But we have a reason. Because the Left hates a unified America. And this articles explain it well.

Why the Left Loathes Western Civilization

This month Stanford University students voted on a campus resolution that would have had their college require a course on Western civilization — as it did until the 1980s.

Stanford students rejected the proposal 1,992 to 347. A columnist in the Stanford Daily explained why: Teaching Western civilization means “upholding white supremacy, capitalism, and colonialism, and all other oppressive systems that flow from Western civilizations.”

The vote and the column encapsulated the Left’s view of Western civilization: In Europe, Latin America, and America, the Left loathes Western civilization.

Wherever there is conflict between the West — identified as white, capitalist, or of European roots — and the non-West, the Left portrays the West as the villain.

I am referring to the Left, not to liberals. The latter generally venerated Western civilization. President Franklin Roosevelt, for example, frequently spoke of defending “Christian civilization.” Today, the Left would revile any Westerner who used such language as xenophobic, racist, and Fascist.

The Left similarly describes any suggestion that anything Western is superior to anything non-Western. Likewise, the Left dismisses virtually all Western achievements, but regards criticism of anything non-Western as racist, chauvinistic, imperialist, colonialist, xenophobic, etc.

That is why the Left is so protective of Islam. America’s first left-wing president, Barack Obama, will not use, or allow the government to use, the words “Islamic terrorism”; and all criticism of Islam is labeled “Islamophobic,” thereby morally equating any such criticism with racism. It is not that the Left is sympathetic to Islam; the Left has contempt for all religions. It is that many Muslims loathe the West, and the enemies of my enemy (the West) must be protected.

That is why the Left loathes Israel. If the Left actually cared about human rights, women’s rights, gay rights, or freedom of speech, religion, and the press, it would be wildly pro-Israel. But Israel, in the Left’s view, is white, European, and colonialist; in other words, Western. And the Palestinians are non-Western.

So, then, the Big Question is, Why? Why is the Left hostile to Western civilization?

After decades of considering this question, the answer, I have concluded, is: standards.

The Left hates standards – moral standards, artistic standards, cultural standards. The West is built on all three, and has excelled in all three.

The Left hates standards because when there are standards, there is judgment.
Why does the Left hate standards?

It hates standards because when there are standards, there is judgment. And Leftists don’t want to be judged.

Thus Michelangelo is no better than any contemporary artist, and Rembrandt is no greater than any non-Western artist. So, too, street graffiti, which are essentially the defacing of public and private property — and thus serve to undermine civilization — are “art.”

Melody-free, harmony-free, atonal sounds are just as good as Beethoven’s music. And Western classical music is no better than the music of any non-Western civilization.

Guatemalan poets are every bit as worthy of study as Shakespeare.

When the Nobel Prize–winning American novelist Saul Bellow was quoted as saying, “Who is the Tolstoy of the Zulus? The Proust of the Papuans?” all hell broke loose on the cultural Left. Bellow had implied that the greatest writers of fiction were Western.

Why such antagonism? Because if some art is really better than other art, your art may be judged inferior. The narcissism of left-wing thought does not allow for anyone to be better than you artistically or in any other way. Therefore, all art and artists must be equal.

In the moral realm, the same rejection of standards exists. Thus, the Left loathed Ronald Reagan for labeling the Soviet Union an “evil empire.” That would mean that America was morally superior to the Soviet Union. And such a judgment was unacceptable. The whole left-wing moral vocabulary is a rejection of Western moral standards: “tolerance,” “inclusion,” “anti-discrimination” (by definition, standards discriminate), “non-judgmental,” and even “income inequality,” which deems some people’s work more valuable than that of others.

Every civilization had slavery. But only thanks to Judeo-Christian civilization was slavery abolished there and eventually elsewhere. Nevertheless, to speak about any moral superiority of Western or Judeo-Christian civilization is completely unacceptable thanks to the Left’s stranglehold on education and most media.

In this regard, the protection of Islam on the Left is so thorough that one cannot even say such obvious truths as that the status of women has been far superior in the Judeo-Christian West than in the Islamic world. The veil, for example, is dehumanizing; yet, in a speech at the annual convention of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), a rabbi, at the time the president of the Union for Reform Judaism, said that the veil “deserves our respect.”

And finally, we come to the Left’s loathing of the religions of Western civilization — the Judeo-Christian religions, with their clear standards of right and wrong.

Bible-based religions affirm a morally judging God. For the Left, that is anathema. For the Left, the only judging allowed is Leftist judging of others. No one judges the Left. Neither man nor God.

— Dennis Prager is a nationally syndicated radio talk-show host and columnist. His latest book, The Ten Commandments: Still the Best Moral Code, was published by Regnery. He is the founder of Prager University and may be contacted at dennisprager.com. © 2016 Creators.com

What's going on in the World Today 160501

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USA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

AFRICA

A Dormant Saharan Conflict Threatens to Awaken

A long-dormant conflict between Morocco and the ethnic Sahrawi people who inhabit the disputed Western Sahara territory, which both parties claim, threatens to escalate. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council will take up a crucial vote on April 29 that likely will decide the fate of its peacekeeping mission there. In March, the Moroccan government expelled civilians attached to the mission after U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon called Morocco's presence in Western Sahara an "occupation." A U.N. report released a month later detailed the state of the standoff between the Polisario Front, an armed Sahrawi activist group, and Moroccan forces, magnifying fears of renewed fighting between the two. Now, the ambiguous status of the peacekeeping mission is driving U.N. concerns surrounding the conflict in Western Sahara, which Ban said could erupt into "full-scale war."...

ASIA

North Korea: Mid-Range Missile Test Fails, Officials Say April 28, 2016

North Korea fired off what appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile early on April 28, but the launch seems to have failed, unnamed military officials said, Yonhap reported. The missile, assumed to be the same Musudan model tested by the North on April 15, appeared to crash several seconds after launch, the officials said. The projectile was launched around 6:40 a.m. from the vicinity of Wonsan. The April 15 test also exploded shortly after launch. For Pyongyang to fulfill its deterrence goals, it must first carry out successful practical tests of ICBM component systems.

EUROPE

In Europe, a Crisis in Every Direction

During the early stages of the EU crisis, most threats to the survival of the Continental bloc came from its periphery. Back then the prevailing fear was that financial disaster in a southern member state — a default in Greece or Portugal, for example — could precipitate the eurozone's collapse, hurting northern nations such as Germany and the Netherlands in the process. Though the possibility still exists, a sort of inverse threat has emerged. Today, the steady rise of anti-establishment and Euroskeptic sentiments in Northern Europe, as exemplified in Austria and Germany, threatens the Continent's south.....

France: Protests Over Labor Law Erupt At May Day Parade In Paris May 1, 2016

Clashes broke out between French police and demonstrators during a May Day parade in Paris, police said May 1, BBC reported. Trade unions used the traditional march to protest against a proposed labor law to be discussed by parliament on May 3. Police responded with tear gas when youths began throwing missiles, bringing the march to a standstill. France has seen two months of unrest over the reforms, which would remove some of the protection workers enjoy against being laid off, in an attempt to encourage businesses to hire more people. The government says the law's aim is to combat chronic unemployment, but opponents say it will let employers bypass workers' rights on pay, rest time and overtime rates.

Bulgaria: Balkan Heavyweight, Eurasian Lightweight

Summary

Bulgaria is Europe's oldest country — it existed in roughly its modern form in A.D. 700, long before most of its fellow EU member states. This fact, however, is deceptive. While Bulgaria existed at an early date, it spent seven of the ensuing 13 centuries under foreign control. The country's favorable geography gives it the potential to dominate its smaller Balkan neighbors, but has also fated it to rule by three empires: the Byzantines, the Ottomans and the Soviet Union...

Germany: Government Will Request Extension Of Schengen Border Controls, April 30, 2016

Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Sweden will call for the European Commission to extend border Schengen Zone border controls beyond their original end date of May 12, German Interior Minister Thomas De Maiziere said April 30, Reuters reported. Berlin and its partners hope to maintain the controls into November. Migrant flows through the Balkans have dropped recently, but Germany says that the European Union needs to continue to protect its external borders and seek transnational solutions. The migration crisis has prompted EU members to take unilateral action, exacerbating underlying political discord within the Continental bloc.


MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA

Chile: An Island of Stability in South America

Latin America's economies have reacted differently to the drop in global commodity prices over the past several years. With Chinese demand growth slowing and economic growth relatively slow in Europe and the United States, Latin America's commodity boom is essentially over. In Brazil, the decline in prices for key exports such as soybeans and iron ore exposed severe structural economic problems. In Venezuela, the drop in oil prices since 2014 plunged the country into a social crisis threatening the government's hold over the nation. But Chile is a different story....

AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan: Troops Battle Taliban To Hold Capital Of Uruzgan Province May 1, 2016

Afghan security forces have been battling to push back Taliban fighters seeking to cut off Tarin Kowt, the capital of the southern province of Uruzgan, officials said May 1, Reuters reported. The Taliban is seeking to isolate Tarin Kowt from outlying districts and over the past week has been fighting Afghan forces for control of the road between the town and Shawali Kot in Kandahar province. An Afghan army spokesman said troops had reopened the route but that insurgents had planted improvised explosive devices on the road. If Uruzgan province falls, the Taliban could use it as a springboard to launch attacks on Helmand and Kandahar further to the south. So far no additional foreign troops have been sent to bolster the defense, as they were in Helmand earlier this year, and coalition aircraft have not carried out airstrikes in support of Afghan troops.

Afghanistan: Government Launches Operations In 18 Provinces, April 30, 2016

The Afghan military kicked off anti-militant operations in 18 provinces backed by airstrikes and artillery, according to an April 30 Ministry of Defense statement, Reuters reported. The operations have targeted Taliban and Islamic State fighters, killing 80 in total over the last 24 hours. The government has lost six troops in the fighting. The Taliban launched its annual spring offensive April 12 and numerous foreign powers are working to find a lasting solution to the conflict.

A Hint of Irony in the Afghan Conflict

The Taliban have started their spring offensive of 2016, a year in which the coordination group charged with bringing peace to the country, perhaps ironically, has made its strongest push for resolution. The Afghan government has responded by pledging to ramp up security operations in kind. All this would appear to bode ill for the peace prospects of a country still in the throes of a 14-year war. But there are also some reasons for optimism. Many countries have a vested interest in securing Afghanistan, placed as it is to link the regions surrounding it. That is not to say peace will necessarily prevail, but it is to say that the future of Afghanistan, as with all countries, will be determined by the convergence of domestic politics, international politics and geopolitics...

CHINA

China's Expanding Military Influence in Central Asia

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, an unexplored frontier opened up for China to its west. Central Asia offered Beijing new sources of raw materials and new markets — not to mention a major transit zone for exports — to feed China's growing economy. But China did not have the military to buttress its economic position, nor did it want to upset Russia, a power wary of rising Chinese influence, especially in its former Soviet periphery. With these concerns in mind, Beijing carefully shaped a military and economic strategy for Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan.

China's Security Ambitions in South and Central Asia

As China expands its economic reach, it is taking steps to protect its newfound interests abroad. On March 1, Beijing proposed a joint counterterrorism mechanism with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan in an effort to bolster security throughout the region. Though the initiative, if implemented, would not have an immediate impact on regional security or on China's geopolitical standing, it signals Beijing's intention to become more involved in security issues beyond its borders. As it does so, China will find itself shouldering more responsibility for providing and safeguarding stability throughout South and Central Asia — something that may not sit well with rival powers defending their own interests in the region...

China: Military Aircraft Makes First Public Landing On Artificial Island, April 18, 2016
A Chinese military aircraft landed at a new airport on the Fiery Cross Reef, an artificial island China built in disputed waters in the South China Sea, Reuters reported April 18. According to the official People's Liberation Army Daily, the military aircraft was on patrol over the South China Sea on April 17 when it responded to an emergency call to evacuate three seriously ill workers from the island. China began civilian test flights to the island in January, but its military had not publicly admitted to landing aircraft on the island. A military expert told the Global Times that the flight demonstrated that the island is up to military standards. China's construction projects on several South China Sea reefs and islets have stirred the ire of its Southeast Asian neighbors.

IRAN

Iran: Army Displays Russian Missile Defense System, April 17, 2016

Iran showed off parts of its new Russian S-300 missile defense system during National Army Day on April 17, Reuters reported. During an event in Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani said the country's armed forces and its missile defenses were no threat to neighboring countries, but would defend Iran. Russia delivered the first part of the S-300 missile defense system — which can engage multiple aircraft and ballistic missiles around 150 kilometers away — to Iran last week. Russia has said it canceled a contract to deliver S-300s to Iran in 2010 under pressure from the West. But President Vladimir Putin lifted the ban in April 2015, after an interim agreement that paved the way for a full nuclear deal with Iran that ended international sanctions. Since then, Iran's hard-line conservative Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has carried out four ballistic missile tests, upsetting the United States in part to undermine Rouhani and his economic reform efforts that could disrupt Iran's political system.

IRAQ

Iraq: After Shiite Protesters Storm Parliament, Military Deployed To Green Zone, ßApril 30, 2016

Baghdad declared a citywide state of emergency April 30 after hundreds of demonstrators loyal to Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr marched over the Tigris River and into Baghdad's Green Zone, entering the parliament building, witnesses said, BBC reported. Major checkpoints into Baghdad have been sealed off, stopping traffic. Both military and police have been deployed to the Green Zone, sealing off entry and exit as well as internal roads. When entering earlier April 30, the crowd passed through a checkpoint but were not searched by government security forces and have reportedly been ransacking government buildings. The move came after lawmakers failed to carry out a vote to reshuffle the national government. The protesters chanted "the cowards ran away."

A sit-in by al-Sadr supporters began March 18 outside Baghdad's Green Zone, kicking off a round of near-constant protests. The pressure is meant to influence the Cabinet decisions of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. For several weeks, powerful political blocs have stalled voting on a new government. For over a year, protests calling for government reform were a regular feature in Iraqi politics. But when al-Sadr joined the protest scene, he brought with him supporters of his affiliated Badr Organization and al-Ahrar bloc. Also in Baghdad on April 30, an Islamic State suicide car bombing at a Shiite militia checkpoint in Dora district killed 19 Shiite pilgrims and wounded 48 others, Reuters reported. The pilgrims were going to the Imam Kadhim shrine.

Iraq: Green Zone Occupiers Congregate In Main Square As Their Ranks Swell, April 30, 2016

More protesters, including those not affiliated with Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, have gathered in the Green Zone's Grand Festivities Square, Rudaw reported. These crowds joined the al-Sadr followers who entered the zone in Baghdad that houses embassies and government buildings. The protesters are calling for parliament to complete the reshuffle of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's Cabinet, a process that has stalled for weeks. The parliament did not reach a quorum in today's session and does not plan to reconvene until May 5.
Witnesses allege that al-Abadi allowed protesters to enter the Green Zone to prevent a violent breach, but the government has vehemently denied this. This weekend is a holiday in Iraq commemorating Shiite Imam Musa al-Kadhim, swelling the ranks of protesters.

Al-Sadr's militia, Saraya al-Salam, has helped police and military personnel to clear the government buildings of people, moving them into the square. Some protesters have set up tents inside the Green Zone. There have been no reports of fatalities, injuries or violence with the exception of one unconfirmed report of gunfire and tear gas.

Parliamentary Speaker Salim al-Jabouri has called on al-Sadr to have his demonstrators stand down while Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is insisting that the situation is under control. President Fuad Masum earlier called for demonstrators to leave the parliament building, which they have largely done. Masum also reiterated the need for the government to redouble its efforts to satisfy the demands of the Iraqi people related to the Cabinet reshuffle.

Around 20 Kurdish lawmakers have reportedly left Baghdad for Iraqi Kurdistan via the airport. Most roads in and out of the capital remain closed, but the route to the airport is reportedly open. The Shiite majority National Alliance is currently meeting to discuss what happens next. For over a year, protests calling for government reform were a regular feature in Iraqi politics. But when al-Sadr joined the protest scene, he brought with him supporters of his affiliated Badr Organization and al-Ahrar bloc.

Iraq: Protesters Peacefully Leave Green Zone May 1, 2016

Protesters camped out in Baghdad's Green Zone left the government district peacefully on May 1, Reuters reported. Before leaving, protesters issued an escalating set of demands, including a parliamentary vote on a technocrat government, the resignation of the president, prime minister and parliamentary speaker and new elections. Iraq has endured months of unrest prompted by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's attempt to replace party-affiliated ministers with technocrats as part of an anti-corruption drive. A divided parliament has failed to approve the proposal amid protests. Deep frustration over the deadlock culminated in a dramatic breach on April 30 of the Green Zone by supporters of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr. The peaceful defusing of the crisis came after al-Abadi convened a high-level meeting with Iraq's president, parliament speaker and political bloc leaders, who said high-level meetings would continue in coming days. A politician who attended the talks also said al-Abadi had faced accusations of mishandling the crisis.

Iraq: Premier Orders Arrests Of Protesters Who Damaged Parliament May 1, 2016

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on May 1 ordered the arrest of activists who caused damage and attacked police while storming parliament in Baghdad on April 30, BBC reported. Supporters of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr broke through barricades of the fortified Green Zone in protest against delays in approving a new Cabinet. A state of emergency was declared in Baghdad after the protests. Supporters of al-Sadr want lawmakers to replace ministers with political affiliations with non-partisan technocrats. Parties in parliament have refused to approve the change for several weeks. Systemic political patronage has aided corruption in Iraq, depleting the government's resources as it struggles to cope with declining oil revenue and the war against the Islamic State. Parliament again failed to reach a quorum April 30, after which the protest escalated and saw hundreds of people storm the parliament building. After the protest, demonstrators set up camp outside the parliament. However, the committee organizing the sit-in called on protesters to leave the government district later on May 1, Reuters reported. Despite al-Abadi's order — made after he visited the damaged parliament building — there are no indications that any arrests have been made.

ISRAEL

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

RUSSIA

The Nuclear Arms Race Is Alive and Well

Summary

Russia is determined to maintain its nuclear deterrence against the United States. Its navy plans to test 16 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) in a single salvo from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea soon, according to a source quoted in Russian daily Izvestia, though the source did not provide a date. Other Russian media agencies have reported that only two missiles would be tested...

...It is hardly surprising, then, that Russia is determinedly modernizing its nuclear weapons program while simultaneously reminding the world of its capability. Last year, the Russians tested eight ICBMs, and earlier in January, Russian officials announced plans to test 16 ICBMs in 2016, 14 of which will be tests of missiles entering service in Russia for the first time. On the testing schedule are the recently introduced Bulava SLBM, which had considerable development problems, and also other land-based ICBMs such as the new SS-X-30 Sarmat. Moscow is counting on these new missiles to ensure its nuclear arsenal survives against the U.S. anti-ballistic missile network.

Russia is also looking to its past to enhance its nuclear survivability, revisiting old Soviet tactics. Moscow is now working to enhance missile mobility by shuttling them by rail. Moreover, it is reviewing the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, which would enable Russia to use low Earth orbit to widen the range of its missiles to strike areas not protected by U.S. anti-ballistic missile systems...

SYRIA

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL

A New Vision for the Kingdom

By Anisa Mehdi

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman became an international darling this week when he articulated a new economic plan for his nation. On April 25, the 30-year-old rising Saudi star announced his aspirations to diversify the local economy beyond petroleum and pilgrimage. Salman, currently the chair of the country's Council of Economic and Development Affairs, is second in line to the kingdom's throne. He is also a millennial...

Lebanon: Trading Policies for Guns

A Dormant Saharan Conflict Threatens to Awaken

A long-dormant conflict between Morocco and the ethnic Sahrawi people who inhabit the disputed Western Sahara territory, which both parties claim, threatens to escalate. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council will take up a crucial vote on April 29 that likely will decide the fate of its peacekeeping mission there. In March, the Moroccan government expelled civilians attached to the mission after U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon called Morocco's presence in Western Sahara an "occupation." A U.N. report released a month later detailed the state of the standoff between the Polisario Front, an armed Sahrawi activist group, and Moroccan forces, magnifying fears of renewed fighting between the two. Now, the ambiguous status of the peacekeeping mission is driving U.N. concerns surrounding the conflict in Western Sahara, which Ban said could erupt into "full-scale war."...

MISC

April 27, New York Daily News – (New York) Bloods-linked gang members charged with running $414G identity-theft ring. Officials from the New York County District Attorney’s Office announced April 26 that 39 gang members were charged for their roles in a $414,000 identity theft scheme where the group used stolen bank information from the Dark Web to create phony credit cards used to make fraudulent purchases at Barneys and Sacks Fifth Avenue stores and sold the goods to fund personal expenses. Officials stated a subsequent search of the suspects’ apartments in Queens and Brooklyn, New York revealed computers and credit card making equipment, among other illicit materials.

The Tech Revolution Comes of Age

Technological revolutions frame historical eras. Each cycle thrusts new sectors into prominence, turning companies into strategic assets for their governments to exploit. Whether it is European trading companies in the colonial era or international oil companies in the 20th century, technological revolutions give corporations such power and importance that they become inherently geopolitical.

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

Trump

From a recent STRATFOR post. I'm no fan of The Donald, I firmly believe his nomination will insure the election of the Democratic nominee, the loss of the Senate and seats lost in the House. Yes, I'm a conservative-libertarian while Trump is at best a fraud and more likely a radical leftist.

This article reviews Trump's foreign policy views. If he becomes president....God Help Us All.

A Thoughtful Response to Trump?


Editor's Note: The Global Affairs column is curated by Stratfor's editorial board, a diverse group of thinkers whose expertise inspires rigorous and innovative thought in our analyses. Though their opinions are their own, they inform and sometimes even challenge our beliefs. We welcome that challenge, and we hope our readers do too.

By Ian Morris

No one, it seems, has a nice word to say about Donald Trump's foreign policy thinking.

Nearly every pundit on the planet has taken a swing at his confused and alarming pronouncements. More measured than most, The New York Times began cautiously suggesting that Trump's views "reflect little consideration for potential consequences," but soon hardened its line to denounce Trump's "completely unhinged view of international engagement" as "contradictory and shockingly ignorant." The Atlantic magazine agreed that Trump had "no understanding of the post-war international order," and The Washington Post joined the chorus, concluding that "Donald Trump's ignorance of government policy, both foreign and domestic, is breathtaking." NBC called Trump "completely uneducated about any part of the world," while CNN described him as "wholly unqualified to handle the real issues facing America." Newsweek magazine neatly summed up the consensus: "When it comes to foreign policy, Donald Trump, he's just saying stuff."

At least, this is the kind of thing the foreign policy crowd was saying until recently, but one consequence of this unusual unanimity among the talking heads was that it quickly became difficult for a journalist to get noticed merely by thinking up new ways to denigrate the Donald. Instead, a new attention-grabbing strategy emerged this month: Columnists began pretending to think they had found a method in Trump's madness. In her recent column in beer Foreign Policy, for instance, Rosa Brooks — while hardly pouring praise on Trump — suggested that beneath the surface bluster, "Trump is, to a great extent, nonetheless articulating a coherent vision of international relations and America's role in the world." CNN, flip-flopping on its earlier criticisms, has gone further, saying that "his opinions also reflect basic common sense."

Trump's rationalizers claim he is simply a foreign policy realist. Back in 1848, British Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston famously said, "We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual friends … [only] our interests are eternal and perpetual." Similarly, the neo-Trumpians argue, the billionaire businessman is just taking a cold, hard look at the geopolitical facts — much as Stratfor tries to do — and consistently putting American interests first.

Of all the stuff Trump is just saying, the revisionists seem most impressed by his views on America's system of overseas alliances. "To Trump," Brooks concludes, "U.S. alliances, like potential business partners in a real-estate transaction, should always be asked: 'What have you done for me lately?'" If an old ally such as Saudi Arabia has no satisfactory answer, Trump proposes, the United States should stop buying its oil. Or if Japan will not pay more toward the costs of American forces in the Western Pacific, those forces should withdraw.

"The old cliches roll easily off the tongue: U.S. alliances and partnerships are vital … And so on," says Brooks; "But this is pure intellectual and ideological laziness." Brooks does not, however, join Fox News in concluding that "Donald Trump is 100 percent correct to insist that our allies should share the burden of collective defense." (They do, of course, already share the burden; Fox News presumably means they should pick up more of the burden.) Nor does she follow CNN's new line that "Washington should stop defending its prosperous, populous allies." Rather, she more thoughtfully observes, "Trump's vision of the world demands a serious, thoughtful and nondefensive response."

The Cost of Abandoning Allies

I want to try my hand at such a response. To my mind, Trump looks less like a realist than like a caricature of a realist, claiming to offer completely transactional international relations, stripped of conventional policymakers' wooly thinking. Realism, though, is not simply a matter of being unsentimental. It is about knowing when an appeal to tradition, values and loyalty will advance a nation's interests and when it will not.

In an earlier Global Affairs column, I mused that "Even the most Kissingerian of geopoliticians tend to recognize that values have a place in strategy (a good subject for a future column, perhaps) and that it is usually a mistake to sell out allies or walk away from deeply held beliefs to win a small advantage." These may be obvious points to make, but the friendships that the United States has built in the 70 years since the end of World War II are worth much more than their weight in gold, and few things will undermine American security quite so quickly as throwing them over for the sake of short-term gains.

Signaling to former allies that past favors, shared values or common struggles no longer count for anything, and that every interaction will now be weighed on the "What have you done for me lately?" scale, is a surefire method for raising the cost of doing business (something a businessman such as Trump presumably wants to avoid). Perhaps Washington can bully Saudi Arabia into doing more against the self-styled Islamic State; but will the gains from that deal offset the costs if the Saudis conclude they can no longer trust America to take the lead against rivals such as Iran?

There is a saying in Chicago that an honest politician is one who, when you buy him, stays bought. A new president who walks away from America's "friends" — however slippery and self-serving she or he might think that some of them are — will run the risk of relearning another old Chicago lesson: that the costs of being seen as a dishonest politician can be fatal.

Appealing to values is certainly not an alternative to cold geopolitical calculation. In what is probably the clearest case of a struggle between right and wrong, Britain and the United States consistently took the moral high ground against Germany and Japan in World War II. Both Western allies were liberal democracies, and neither ever attacked a neutral country (although Britain did consider invading Norway in 1940), herded prisoners of war and members of what they considered lesser races into death camps (although the United States did intern Japanese-Americans), or committed genocide (although the English-speaking Allies did collaborate in killing more than a million German and Japanese civilians in air raids). Germany and Japan (and, of course, the Soviet Union) were totalitarian dictatorships and did all these bad things; and yet despite the stark contrasts, few countries voluntarily joined the Western Allies before 1945, by which time it was clear that Germany and Japan were going to lose.

The truth of the matter is that values and calculation are not alternative approaches to foreign policy; they are always inextricably mixed.

A Balanced Strategy

This simple fact has been hardwired into us by evolution, because people whose genes predispose them to combine ethics and cold calculation in just the right way are more likely to pass their genes on to the next generation than those whose genes predispose them to act differently. Across the seven or eight million years since the evolutionary branch that led toward humans split off from that which led toward the other great apes, people have developed what biologists call an evolutionarily stable strategy — or equilibrium — balancing morality and self-interest.

Even before seven million years ago, however, the last common ancestor shared by all five species of African great apes (eastern and western gorillas, chimpanzees and bonobos, and humans) already had its own stable strategies, and modern humans' nearest genetic kin — chimpanzees and bonobos — see diplomacy in ways that are similar to, just less sophisticated than, our own.

In 1975, the primatologist Frans de Waal began a six-year study of politics among the chimpanzees of the Netherlands' Arnhem zoo, and since the 1980s numerous scientists have confirmed his findings among wild populations in Africa. Chimpanzees and bonobos both have steep dominance hierarchies in which a handful of alpha individuals (mostly males among chimps, mostly females among bonobos) lead a larger community; and in both species, alliances do more than use brute force to determine power. Primates have evolved to be extremely good at recognizing one another, remembering favors and insults, and calculating whom they can rely on when the chips are down. In fact, one of the most influential theories in physical anthropology holds that the whole reason primate brains more than tripled in size across the three million years separating Australopithecines from us was that apes that kept track of their allies were more likely to pass their genes on to the next generation than those that didn't.

De Waal documented in meticulous detail just how deadly serious this game is. In 1980, two of the Arnhem chimpanzees, Yeroen and Nikkie, manipulated friendships and rivalries to isolate the alpha male, Luit. Only then, when Luit was quite without allies, did Yeroen and Nikkie turn to hard power to dethrone him. In a vicious nighttime attack, they slashed Luit to pieces, biting off his fingers and toes and tearing out his testicles. He bled to death. Within days a new alliance system had formed, in which Nikkie was the top ape and Yeroen was the power behind the throne.

Biology seems to show that you should never turn your back on a friend — unless the gains from doing so clearly outweigh the reputational costs of being known as a dishonest politician. The secret of success lies in being able to judge the costs and benefits accurately.

On the whole, American leaders since 1945 have done a good job at balancing values and calculation. It is probably no coincidence that in addition to having the greatest military and economic dominance in history since 1989, the United States has also led the greatest network of allies in history. The only country that could possibly compare, mid-19th-century Britain, in fact did not even come close to American levels of dominance on either count.

At the end of the day, the brouhaha over Trump's incoherent policy pronouncements is no more than a colorful illustration of a small part of a larger debate over the place of values in international relations. The real argument is not between Trumpian transactionalism and establishment sentimentality, because even self-conscious realists always have to factor idealism into their calculations. (Historian Niall Ferguson was quite right to subtitle the first volume of his recent biography of Henry Kissinger "the Idealist.") What matters is the most old-fashioned virtue of all — good judgment — something that neither candidate Trump nor those who claim to see coherence in his statements have so far displayed. There's no need for us to sink to just saying stuff.

"A Thoughtful Response to Trump? is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Video from a hawk in flight...

You think the video from a drone can take your breath away. Look at this.

What's going on in the World Today 160427

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USA


 

" Conversation: The United States' Role in the World is republished with permission of Stratfor." 

AFRICA 

Kenya: Government To Resume Border Wall Construction April 25, 2016 Kenya will resume construction of a 700-kilometer (435-mile) security wall along its border with Somalia, Interior Minister Joseph Nkaissery said April 24, Xinhua reported. The fence is designed to stop al Shabaab fighters in Somalia from crossing into Kenya, where the group has committed a number of gruesome attacks, including an April 2015 attack at a university, which killed nearly 150 students. The government's announcement to restart building comes after construction on the wall stalled because of a lack of funds. 

ASIA 

Australia: France Lands $43 Billion Submarine Deal April 26, 2016 France's state-owned DCNS group won a $43 billion contract to build a fleet of 12 submarines for Australia, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced April 26, Reuters reported. France beat out Japan and Germany for the deal, which Turnbull said would involve Australian workers and Australian steel. Japan was viewed as an early frontrunner to secure the deal, but inexperience with global defense deals and a reluctance to agree to build the submarines in Australia caused it to lose out to the French bid. Losing the deal is a blow to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's effort to ramp up defense exports while normalizing the country's military. 

Why France Won the Biggest Arms Deal in Australian History 

Even in the lucrative world of the arms trade, it isn't every day that a sale worth more than $38.54 billion is made. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced Tuesday the winner of Australia's Future Submarine contract. DCNS, a French industrial group that specializes in naval equipment, bested rival Japanese and German companies, forcing them to learn the bitter lessons of a lost contest…. 

Koreas: North Ready For Next Nuclear Test, Park Says April 26, 2016 

North Korea has completed preparations for its fifth nuclear test and could conduct it at any time, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said April 26, Yonhap reported. Meanwhile, North Korea has no plans to suspend nuclear tests even if the United States stops its annual military exercises with South Korea, an aide to North Korea's foreign minister told Kyodo. Over the weekend, the foreign minister said Pyongyang would halt nuclear testing in exchange for an end to the joint drills. Last week, North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile in its latest show of defiance against international sanctions. “As North Korea works on a deliverable warhead, it will be important to watch its parallel efforts to build a long-range delivery vehicle for re-entry and guidance capabilities.” 

EUROPE 

In Europe, a Crisis in Every Direction 

During the early stages of the EU crisis, most threats to the survival of the Continental bloc came from its periphery. Back then the prevailing fear was that financial disaster in a southern member state — a default in Greece or Portugal, for example — could precipitate the eurozone's collapse, hurting northern nations such as Germany and the Netherlands in the process. Though the possibility still exists, a sort of inverse threat has emerged. Today, the steady rise of anti-establishment and Euroskeptic sentiments in Northern Europe, as exemplified in Austria and Germany, threatens the Continent's south…. 

Italy: NATO To Shift Focus To Libya Migration Route, Minister Says April 25, 2016 Italian Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti said she expects NATO to agree at its July 2016 summit in Poland to deploy forces to counter illegal migration from Libya to Europe, La Stampa reported April 25. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has reportedly confirmed to Pinotti that an Italian proposal to shift the focus of NATO operations from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Libyan coast has been approved. While the majority of the focus regarding illegal migration to the European Union has been on Greece, Italy's migration problem should not be ignored. 

MEXICO/LATIN AMERICA 

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT AFGHANISTAN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

CHINA 

China's Long March Into Central Asia 

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, an unexplored frontier opened up for China to its west. Central Asia offered Beijing new sources of raw materials and new markets, as well as a major transit zone for exports, to feed China's growing and globally integrating economy. But China did not have the military means to buttress its economic position, nor did it want to unnerve Russia, a power wary of rising Chinese influence, especially in its former Soviet periphery. With these concerns in mind, Beijing carefully shaped a military and economic strategy for Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. Though weak upon independence, the countries retained strong security ties to Russia. Consequently, China opted to promote economic involvement in the region complemented by a subtle, unimposing military engagement, mainly as a courtesy to Russia in exchange for stable Chinese-Russian strategic cooperation. 

IRAN 

Russia: Missile Defense System Delivered To Iran Ahead Of Schedule April 26, 2016 Russia is delivering its S-300 missile defense system to Iran ahead of schedule, according to Alexander Fomin, the head of Russia's federal arms exports service, Reuters reported. The two countries are also holding talks on the delivery of other equipment. The S-300 missile defense system can engage multiple aircraft and ballistic missiles around 150 kilometers (90 miles) away. Russia delivered the first part of the system to Iran the week of April 11. Moscow had canceled a contract to deliver S-300s to Iran in 2010 under pressure from the West. President Vladimir Putin, however, lifted the ban in April 2015 after an interim agreement that paved the way for a full nuclear deal with Iran ending international sanctions. 

Iran: Zarif, Kerry Meeting In New York April 22, 2016 

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to meet in New York with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on April 22, according to Kerry’s spokesman, AFP reported. Discussions will focus on the sanctions relief process and implementation of the nuclear deal reached last year, the spokesman said. It is the pair’s first meeting since January. They are expected to meet again after a meeting at the United Nations on April 26. Tehran alleges that Washington has not lived up to its side of the nuclear deal, because Western banks and firms have been slow to restore business ties. With sanctions removed, Iran's political factions over the next few years will fight over the direction of the economy and to what extent to open it to foreign investment. 

Iran's Supreme Leader says U.S. lifted sanctions only on paper 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks live on television after casting his ballot in the Iranian presidential election in Tehran June 12, 2009. REUTERS/Caren Firouz Iran's Supreme Leader accused the United States on Wednesday of scaring businesses away from Tehran and undermining a deal to lift international sanctions. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told hundreds of workers that a global deal, signed between Iran and world powers, had lifted financial sanctions, but U.S. obstruction was stopping Iran getting the full economic fruits of the agreement. "On paper the United States allows foreign banks to deal with Iran, but in practice they create Iranophobia so no one does business with Iran," he said in quotes from the speech posted on his website…. 

IRAQ 

Iraq: Kurdish, Shiite Fighters Agree To Truce in North April 25, 2016 

Kurdish peshmerga and Shiite Turkmen paramilitary forces in northern Iraq agreed to a truce, halting a dayslong period of violence that threatened to further destabilize the country, Rudaw reported April 25. More than a dozen fighters from the two groups died in the clashes, as well as an unknown number of civilians. The clashes risk further fragmenting Iraq, which is struggling to contain the Islamic State while managing sectarian and ethnic rivalries, including between the Shiite-led government in Baghdad and Kurdish officials in Iraqi Kurdistan. 

Iraq: Army Resumes Makhmour Offensive, Recaptures Village April 27, 2016 

The Iraqi army resumed its Makhmour offensive April 27, recapturing the village of Mahana from the Islamic State, Rudaw reported. The offensive is the first stage in the larger operation to retake the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from Islamic State militants. Despite the U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, the Makhmour offensive has been slow. Various groups are cooperating against the Islamic State, including the Kurdish peshmerga, Shiite militias, Sunni tribal militias and Iraqi government forces. The struggle for influence and control among these groups will emerge even more fully as they overcome their common enemy. 

A Pause in Iraq's Sectarian Infighting 

Tuz Khurmatu, a diverse town of fewer than 100,000 people, has long been a hot spot for ethnic and sectarian clashes in Iraq. But violence between the Kurdish peshmerga and Iraq's Shiite militias surged after the town's latest cease-fire unraveled on Sunday. On Wednesday, the two factions reached a tentative agreement in Tuz Khurmatu after the United Nations, United States and United Kingdom urged them to defuse tensions and focus on the fight against their common enemy, the Islamic State. So far, violence between the Kurdish and Shiite militias has been largely confined to the town, but the clashes reveal a much broader issue for Iraq, both in its battle against the Islamic State and in its internal, political battle in Baghdad… 

ISRAEL 

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT 

RUSSIA 

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT 

SYRIA 

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT 

MIDDLE EAST GENERAL 

Number of foreign fighters entering Iraq and Syria drops by 90 percent, Pentagon says 

The flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria has dropped from roughly 2,000 a month down to 200 within the past year, according to the Pentagon, which says the waning numbers are further proof of the Islamic State’s declining stature. The declining number of fighters is a direct result of strikes that have targeted the terror group’s infrastructure, Air Force Maj. Gen. Peter E. Gersten, the deputy commander for operations and intelligence for the U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State, said Tuesday….

BriefPolice made arrests in Cairo, Alexandria and other parts of the country on Thursday night
Dozens of activists were arrested on Thursday in Cairo, Alexandria, the Nile Delta and Upper Egypt ahead of planned protests on 25 April. The police raided several Cairo cafes and arrested dozens of people late on Thursday night and in the early hours of Friday morning, according to a statement by the Freedom for the Brave campaign. Lawyer Amr Imam told Ahram Online that at least 100 people were estimated to have been arrested around the country on Thursday night... 
A Vision of Reform in Saudi Arabia 
Summary Saudi Arabia has lifted its veil of secrecy ever so slightly. Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave his first-ever live interview to Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya television on April 25, less than an hour after the Cabinet in Riyadh approved the kingdom's National Transformation Plan. The five-year plan, which will kick off officially in the next couple of months, outlines Saudi Arabia's strategy to expand and develop its economy while de-emphasizing oil revenue. Within the framework of the larger Vision 2030, the plan focuses on broadening privatization efforts, lifting power and water subsidies across socio-economic classes, decreasing unemployment, bolstering domestic industrial military production, and spinning off some of Saudi Arabian Oil Co.'s assets into what the kingdom hopes will become the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.,, 
In Libya, the Race to Defeat the Islamic State Begins 
April 26:In Libya, the Race to Defeat the Islamic State Begins The race for Sirte is on. Libya's rival militias — and the two governments that command them — are competing to win back the city from the Islamic State, which has held it since mid-2015. The victor will secure greater bargaining power in the ongoing high-stakes negotiations to assemble a U.N.-brokered unity government, the Government of National Accord. The negotiations over the new government have attempted to square the disparate interests of federalists, Islamists and secular nationalists, among others, to establish the defeat of their common enemy, the Islamic State, as the priority. This shared goal has enabled the various groups to overlook their severe ideological and tribal divisions — at least for now…. 
MISC 
April 25, Help Net Security – (International) Compromised credentials still to blame for many data breaches. A Cloud Security Alliance survey found that a lack of scalable identity access management systems, a lack of ongoing automated rotation of cryptographic keys, passwords, and certificates, as well as failure to use multifactor authentication were the major causes of data breaches. The findings also indicated that 22 percent of companies who suffered a data breach, attributed the breach to compromised credentials. Source: 

 April 25, Help Net Security – (International) Critical flaws in HP Data Protector open servers to remote attacks. Hewlett Packard released security updates for its HP Data Protector software patching six critical vulnerabilities for all versions prior to 7.03_108, 8.15, and 9.06 which could allow a remote code execution flaw or unauthorized disclosure of information via unauthenticated users or through an embedded Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) private key, which could increase the chance of man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks. 
 As the sun rose over the banks of the Seine and the medieval, half-timbered houses of Rouen, France, on July 13, 2012, Hisham Almiraat opened his inbox to find “Denunciation” in the subject line of an email. “Please do not mention my name or anything,” wrote the sender, Imane. “I do not want any trouble.” The editor and co-founder of Mamfakinch, a pro-democracy website created in Morocco during the Arab Spring, Almiraat was one of his country’s most outspoken dissidents and someone accustomed to cryptic emails: Moroccan activists faced jail time for their views and risked their jobs, or even their lives, for speaking out against their government. From Normandy’s capital city, where Almiraat was in medical school, the bespectacled 36-year-old spent his time — in between classes and hospital shifts — mentoring, coaching, and editing more than 40 citizen journalists. The group covered the roiling unrest back in Almiraat’s homeland, where he would soon return after completing his studies. (Almiraat contributed to Foreign Policy in 2011.) Almiraat and his colleagues also trained Mamfakinch’s writers to use encryption software, most notably the Onion Router, so that their online activities remained anonymous and shielded. Tor, as it’s widely known, masks a user’s identity and physical location. “People were relying on us to protect their…reputations, their careers, and probably also their freedoms,” Almiraat says. “All of that could be put in jeopardy if that were made public.” It was precisely this forethought that had earned Mamfakinch the Breaking Borders Award, sponsored by Google and the citizen-media group Global Voices, for its efforts “to defend and promote freedom of speech rights on the Internet.” But on that July morning, just 11 days after receiving the award, Almiraat read the message from Imane and knew “something wasn’t right.” A website link directed him to a document labeled “Scandal,” which, once downloaded, was blank. His associates received the same note. Suspicious, Almiraat promptly forwarded the email to an activist he knew, who then sent it to Morgan Marquis-Boire, a dreadlocked, tattooed 32-year-old digital activist who’d grown up hacking in New Zealand under the nickname “Mayhem.” A top security researcher at Google, Marquis-Boire had made waves recently as a volunteer detective for Citizen Lab, a technology research and human rights group at the University of Toronto; he and several colleagues had found evidence that suggested Bahrain was using surveillance software — a product intended for government spying on suspected criminals — against supporters of political reform. After a month-long analysis of the Scandal file, Marquis-Boire contacted Almiraat with disturbing news: Anyone who had opened the document had been infected with highly sophisticated spyware, which had been sent from an Internet protocol address in Morocco’s capital of Rabat. Further research confirmed that the Supreme Council of National Defense, which ran Morocco’s security agencies, was behind the attack. Almiraat and his colleagues had essentially handed government spies the keys to their devices, rendering Tor, or any other encryption software, useless. Morocco’s spooks could read the Mamfakinch team’s emails, steal their passwords, log their keystrokes, turn on their webcams and microphones — and spies likely had been doing exactly those things and more since the intrusion in July….

Except where noted courtesy STRATFOR.COM

Archie has had enough!

One of the greatest TV shows of all time, back when Hollywood was actually a place for storytelling. Edith is going over how she and Archie met. Archie is not much for going down memory lane. Enjoy.

North Korean Nuclear Ambitions Ride on Missile Development: March 23, 2016

The image of a 2012 rocket launch is shown at a Pyongyang railway station on Feb. 3, 2016, as North Korea announced plans to launch a satellite. The launch four days later marked the latest push by the North to demonstrate its missile capabilities. (JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/Getty Images)
Forecast
To dissuade U.S. military action, North Korea will keep trying to develop a demonstrable nuclear missile that can reach the United States.
As North Korea works on a deliverable warhead, it will be important to watch its parallel efforts to build a long-range delivery vehicle for re-entry and guidance capabilities.
In their current forms, North Korea's tests of missile nose cones and guidance systems will not be enough to provide proof of nuclear deterrence.
Analysis
Amid the latest series of North Korean missile tests, South Korea's Ministry of Unification has reported that Pyongyang is ready to carry out its fifth nuclear weapons test detonation and may simply be waiting for a politically advantageous time to do so. Over the past few months, North Korea has apparently accelerated its efforts to develop a deployable nuclear weapon and a long-range missile delivery system. In addition to its fourth underground nuclear test and another attempted satellite launch atop a Taepodong/Unha rocket, which can also serve as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the North has recently published sets of photos of what it claims are a miniaturized nuclear warhead and a ground test of a rocket nose cone to demonstrate its re-entry capability. The images coincide with an uptick in rhetoric regarding the development of a viable nuclear deterrent. Though Pyongyang appears to be moving forward with its goal of creating a functional system, it still has several steps left to complete before it reaches its objective.
If the North wants to bolster the credibility of its claims of possessing a long-range nuclear deterrent, it will need to do at least two more things: conduct active re-entry tests to verify the viability of a nose cone and conduct a test of a guidance system for re-entry. In some ways, North Korea's path remains complex and difficult. After all, it is rocket science. In another sense, though, Pyongyang is not seeking to match current U.S., Russian or Chinese technologies. Instead, it would be sufficient to demonstrate technologies from the 1950s and 1960s — technologies that have been amply documented, studied and tested.
The United States developed its first ICBM during the span of two years of Atlas rocket tests. That said, it was able to draw on the considerable resources of a large nation. Pyongyang, meanwhile, is constrained technologically, financially and politically. And while North Korea may carry out fewer tests than the big powers, it cannot skip certain critical steps. North Korea's timetable has clearly been much slower than that of the United States. Pyongyang's first Scud-B launch took place in the early 1980s; its first test of the intermediate-range Nodong followed in 1990. The first test of the longer-range Taepodong took place in 1998, with six launches so far, several of which were clearly unsuccessful. In regards to rocket technology, the North may be fairly confident it now has a viable launch system, at least to provide the range of an ICBM, and it is shifting its attention to developing a resilient nose cone and accurate guidance system.

It is perhaps no coincidence that Pyongyang has shown off in rapid succession a model miniaturized nuclear warhead and a ground test of a nose cone. The initial ground test shown by the North was intended to highlight advancements in metallurgy and demonstrate the nose cone's ability to survive a simulated re-entry. But ground tests will be insufficient. The North's test rig may not quite re-create re-entry temperatures, pressure and vibrations. The North must conduct one or more flight tests with a nose cone that undergoes re-entry and is recovered. Sensors and dummy warheads inside will help determine whether the nose cone could protect a sensitive nuclear device. A test of a system with a real nuclear device is not necessary and in fact is extremely rare even among current nuclear powers for obvious reasons. The United States tested a complete submarine-launched nuclear missile in 1962, detonating over Christmas Island, and China tested a complete medium-range nuclear device in 1966, detonating over Lop Nor.
The North will also test a guidance system, likely alongside the nose cone survivability tests. This also requires live tests, with re-entry and preferably recovery of the re-entry vehicle. Given the general flight path of North Korean missiles and the size of North Korea, such recovery would probably be at sea, requiring additional naval developments by Pyongyang before a test could feasibly take place. While nuclear devices do not necessarily need an extremely fine guidance system (U.S. ICBMs with larger warheads with a five-mile margin of accuracy were considered acceptable), even a five-mile circle is fairly tiny at the end of a more than 4,000-mile (6,437-kilometer) flight.

Should the North carry out a successful demonstration of guided re-entry, it would match the United States at the stage of its earliest nuclear-armed ICBMs and mark a major step for Pyongyang. However, the world is a different place than it was in the 1950s, and technology is different, too. Pyongyang's current Taepodong/Unha systems require days of fueling before launching on one of the country's two suitable launch pads, which are kept under constant surveillance. The United States and China, and even South Korea and Japan, have the capability to detect and destroy a rocket on the pad, reducing the value of the nuclear deterrent. However, successful testing of the KN-08 mobile missile system or further tests of its submarine-launched missile may serve as the final step for the North to showcase a viable deterrent capability.
As we watch the North's progress, important tests to look for will include re-entry and recovery after launch. The success of those tests marks the difference between having a nuclear device and having a long-range nuclear weapon. Such tests will not go unnoticed, and the risk of conducting them is in their failure or the recovery of the re-entry vehicle by another nation. Pyongyang might develop a deployable short- or intermediate-ranged nuclear-armed missile without a re-entry test, but that would fail to achieve its intended goal of creating a demonstrable nuclear device capable of reaching the United States, which would provide what Pyongyang perceives as the insurance it needs to dissuade U.S. military action.

"North Korean Nuclear Ambitions Ride on Missile Development is republished with permission of Stratfor."

It is done!

I’ve been off on my blogging, among other things, the last few years, especially the last year. I’ve been working to finish my Master’s of Arts in Intelligence Studies, with concentration in Homeland Security. It has been an experience I would not trade, even with it being in the center of multiple major parts of my life (marriage, getting promoted, assigned as a Field Training Supervisor, which takes a lot of my time. But Friday I posted my thesis and it’s been accepted, I then posted a version for publication, and now I’m just waiting for my final grade. I will actually be aware the diploma in August, but I’m done.

One thing I do love is alumni of American Military University have full access to their library, which I will love to use. One of the eye opening experience of the program was the library. Access to countless pear reviewed journals, articles, books, that I would have to pay to access, but now I have a link to them.

I remember the first time I saw a real library. Not knocking the ladies at the public library down the street, but I was a high school junior working on my first research paper and I drove to the University of New Orleans for the first time and walked into their library. And I was astonished. Two stories of books, journals, papers, microfilm. I’m not exaggerating that for the first few minutes I took in the lobby aghast at how big this place was. And they added on two stories the following year. Life got better.

And I am looking forward to writing more serious and lengthy stuff in the future, after a break. I need it, trust me. I’m able to work extra jobs again (I need that!) and this weekend I was started a Stephen King novel. Reading for pleasure. something I haven’t done much of the last three years. And I have some catching up with the Blue Knights, and I’m going to dust off the blog and start posting regularly. I’ve missed that greatly.

I’ve also got to catch up with the family and friends. I’ve missed countless events because I was working on a paper or something. But I know it was worth it. One, the department gives me more money for a master’s. Two, it’s another point for promotion when I take the lieutenant’s exam. And I would like to eventually spend some time in the department intelligence office. I vowed to not go there while I was in the reserves. I would hate to do the same thing on the weekend as you do during the week. But it’s been over 5 years since I called it a night with the army, so the intel racket may again be in my future. One thing I do want to start posting again is my 2-3 times a week summary, “What’s Going on in the World Today.”

Well, I’m about to fall asleep (got home at 0200 after the extra job and I had to get up early for my ride this morning) so I’m drifting off. Night all. Hopefully we’ll be conversing on the net. Have a great week.

If you've always wonders how the candidates are nominated, here you go.....

Couldn't have said it better.

Well deserved punishment!

Mixed 24 year old Glenfiddich with anything!? Hopefully he was castrated and disemboweled before coming here! Some sins cannot be forgiven! :<)

Another happy doggie story!

From Miami, an idiot takes the cops on a ride and ends up facing the Jaws of Justice!

WATCH police in Miami end a high-speed chase with the help of K-9 officers.

Posted by Fox News on Friday, April 1, 2016

Nice work Miami PD.

Officer Down

Investigator Steven Martin Sandberg
Aitkin County Sheriff's Office, Minnesota
End of Watch: Sunday, October 18, 2015
Age: 60
Tour: 24 years
Badge # 203

Investigator Steve Sandberg was shot and killed while guarding a prisoner at St. Cloud Hospital, in St. Cloud, Minnesota.

The prisoner was in custody in connection with a domestic assault in Aitkin County. At approximately 5:15 am the subject attacked and disarmed Investigator Sandberg in the hospital room. The man then fatally shot Investigator Sandberg with his own service weapon.

Another deputy was able to subdue the subject with a Taser. The man died a short time later from an unknown cause.

Investigator Sandberg had served with Aitkin County Sheriff's Office for 24 years.

Rest in Peace Bro…We Got The Watch

Nemo me impune lacessit

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.