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Sunday, December 11, 2016

STRATFOR: Latin America: Governments Brace For U.S. Immigration Policy Shift, November 7, 2016

I've been catching up on my STRATFOR reports and this one is not that old. South American governments are planning on how to react to the incoming Trump administration. Some of the highlights, emphasis mine.

Latin America: Governments Brace For U.S. Immigration Policy Shift

...The campaign promises made by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to step up deportations of immigrants who have entered the United States without permission have unnerved some Central American governments. On Nov. 16, El Salvador's foreign minister, Hugo Martinez, said that the countries of Central America's Northern Triangle (Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) plan to cooperate with Mexico to fashion a coordinated regional response to any increased pace of deportations.

If the Trump administration fulfills the rhetoric, each of those countries could expect a significant number of returnees. Of Honduras' 8 million citizens, more than 1 million currently reside in the United States. About 2 million of Guatamala's 16 million nationals live in the United States. And almost half of El Salvador's just more than 6 million people reside in the United States.

The economies of all three nations depend on remittances from these migrants: Wages sent back from the United States make up roughly 20 percent of the gross domestic product of Honduras, 17 percent of El Salvador's and 10 percent of Guatemala's. Mexico is in the same boat: In 2015, it received almost $25 billion in remittances, which overtook oil-related revenue in economic preeminence for the first time in the country's history....
Six million illegal aliens from three countries, and that doesn't count Mexico. But I notice the remittance from Mexico...25 billion a year. A ten percent tax on that would pay for the wall in one term....

We will see how the future unfolds.

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