Officer Down

Special Agent Jaime J. Zapata
United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement
End of Watch: Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Tour of Duty: 4 years

Special Agent Jaime Zapata was shot and killed outside of Mexico City, Mexico.

He and another agent assigned to United States Embassy and were traveling between Mexico City and Monterrey when they were forced off the road by 10 members of a Mexican drug cartel. The agents were in an armored vehicle with diplomatic plates and identified themselves as diplomats.

The cartel members opened fire on them, fatally wounding Agent Zapata and wounding the second agent.

Special Agent Zapata had served with ICE for four years.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Officer Down

Officer Thomas Adams
California Highway Patrol
End of Watch: Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Age: 24
Tour of Duty: 2 years

Officer Thomas Adams was killed in a automobile accident while on patrol.

He was driving north on Highway 101, just south of Piercy in Mendocino County, when his patrol car was struck head-on by a southbound vehicle. Officer Adams died from the injuries sustained in the collision.

Officer Adams had served with the California Highway Patrol for two years.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Advice from a man who’s been there….

Yesterday I had an in-service class on departmental standards and procedures. Now in any chosen profession in-service training is often worthless and boring. Yesterday was not that type of class.

We watched a video on support for officers who have been injured and are on light duty or medically retired. At the end of the video there was a section on Officer Rick Salter, a narcotics task force officer shot in the face while serving a warrant. This was really an ambush. In the hood they were hitting a home where the security system was worth more than the house. It was a major jolt when we saw his face while he was in the emergency room of Ben Taub General Hospital…a sobering thought you live with every time you start the shift.

I remember the night of March 5th, 2009. I was at the station about to unload my vehicle when I heard “OFFICER DOWN!!! OFFICER DOWN!!!” on the radio. My station has the Houston hospital district in it and whenever an officer is being brought in we block the road to expedite the convoy. But before we could get organized a quick acting ambulance crew had the man in the emergency room. The evening shift did not go off duty until we heard his ambulance was at Ben Taub. We watched over the next few days and next few months as he struggled to recover, wanting to get back on his narcotics team. Finally he had to accept a medical retirement due to the injury and a stroke as a result of the injury.

Then the instructed said “Ladies and gentlemen, Officer Rick Salter.”

He walked down a little unsteadily and we immediately gave him a standing ovation. It was moving to see him still getting around after (I believe) eight surgeries and hundreds of doctor consultations. He wife, who has been with him for around thirty years and is still standing near him, helped him to the front of the class.

He spoke for about five minutes on what happened and basically describing that night as an ambush. He made the point many a cop thinks they will either live all the way through or if shot they will die. What is often not thought of is living with an injury. He was only able to speak for a few minutes because one of his vocal cords is paralyzed by the stroke.

Then Mrs Salter made the point of the issues she had to deal with since the shooting. She got a knock at the door and stayed in the hospital for almost six months straight. Mrs Salter made no attempt to hide her opinion of the support she and her husband received. “The union has been great, the department has been good, the city has sucked!” Mrs Salter had to deal with bureaucrats demanding proof she is married (again they were hitched for over twenty-eight years at the time of the shooting), that they had children, etc. When they medically retired Officer Salter they held his payments until she cleared supply for him. They demanded all six of his wooden batons (for the non law enforcement types out there they are cheap and you tend to acquire them over your career)…they would not let her clean until she turned in the flap holster he was issued in the police academy in the early 80s. After a few days they found it in the attic…and when she turned it into supply the clerk check off the clearing paperwork and then threw the holster in the trash. We can see it was a critical asset that needed to be accounted for.

Mrs. Salter made the point the wife needs a file to assist in the days after a major injury. She had to make major decisions without knowing what he wanted. She criticized cops for “…you will spend five thousand on a new toy, a new gun, but you won’t spend three hundred on a will…” Mrs. Salter recommended a “to go” file with marriage license, birth certificates, will’s, power of attorney, medical power of attorney, etc.

Seeing him and getting a taste of what he and his family have had to deal with is a sobering reminder of something cops don’t like to face. It’s fairly simple to get over the thought of dying in the line of duty. You will die…be it in while on duty or after a long retirement…it’s the living with a major injury that you avoid thinking of.

And yes, I do not want to think of it…but I will get off my dead ass and do what Beth has been demanding. A new will, a living will, etc… and I’ll put it in a file for her. It will be bad enough if she gets the knock at the door…better be prepared for it .

Chris Christie does it again

Gotta love this man. From his speech at the American Enterprise Institute yesterday:

I fear that after watching how things have been going over the last month or two that we're missing a historic opportunity. And I will not be someone who will participates in silently missing that opportunity. I don't think there should be much disagreement across the country about what those big things are. For us in New Jersey it's three things: It's restoring and maintaining fiscal sanity; it's getting our pension and health benefits under control, reformed and have the costs lowered; and it's reforming an education system that costs too much and produces too little for our society today and for our children's future.

...Listen, you guys want to pass an income tax increase, you can. That's fine. I'm gonna veto it. And if you want to close down the government because of that, that's fine, but I want to tell you something: I'm not moving any cot into this office and sleeping here. You close down the government, I'm getting in those black SUVs with the troopers; I'm going to the governor's residence. I'm gonna go upstairs, I'm gonna open a beer, I'm gonna order a pizza, I'm gonna watch the Mets

Here is the video....go to 400 for the good point.

A bit of the changing of the guard

As some of you know I retired from the Army last May and you can understand I’ve been placing older Army stuff (uniforms etc) into cases, into the attic. But I think this is the last of it.

I received this flight helmet bag (green one on the right) as a present from a friend Randy when I was a Lieutenant and he was a Captain. We were stationed at Fort Carson CO in the early 90s. I went there for a couple of years ago…post is still a dump although the area (Colorado Springs CO) is beautiful. But anyway during my active days, during two deployments, multiple temporary duties in the US and overseas the bag has served me well. In recent years it’s been more of a gym bag than anything.

But like many things with my former uniform it’s time to put it away. That and it’s starting to tear and wear out. Hell, everything has a useful life. It goes into a footlocker which is in my garage…life goes on.

I picked up a new bag from LL Bean and got it embroidered….I need to be reminded who I am!

Randy if you’re out there thanks…it worked well for over two decades.

Officer Down

Captain Daniel Stiles
Uniontown Ohio Police Department
End of Watch: Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Age: 46

Captain Dan Stiles was struck and killed by a vehicle while directing traffic at approximately 7:50 am.

He was at the intersection of Edison Street NW and Kaufman Avenue NW directing traffic for a nearby school. Despite wearing a reflective vest, he was struck by an oncoming SUV whose driver stated she did not see him. Captain Stiles was transported to Akron City Hospital where he succumbed to his injuries three hours later.

Captain Stiles had served with the Uniontown Police Department for two years and had previously served with the Hartville Police Department for 18 years.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Louisiana has sent another winner to Congress

Someone I’ve gotten on the distro list of The Hayride, a daily political update from Louisiana. My old home has always been famous for the politicians…the socialist Huey Long…the populist (and honest crook) Edwin Edwards…and recently the whore Senator Mary Landrieu who sold out on Obamacare in spite of a majority of her state saying not no but hell no.

But again Louisiana has outdone itself once more with its member from the 2nd Congressional District. First you have William Cold Cash Jefferson, he of ninety grand in his freezer and diverting needed heavy trucks during rescue operations in the days after Katrina to get stuff out of his house.

Next was Joseph Cao…nice guy but he was the only Republican in the House to vote for Obamacare. Hate to tell you Joe but Democrats will hate you no matter what.

Finally the latest embarrassment to the state is Mr Liu’s replacement Cedric Richmond. During a recent speech to the AFL-CIO this great philosophical thinker gave the reason America was founded…

“For far too long, we’ve let companies dictate their decisions based on a bottom line, what they’re going to give back to their shareholders, their boards of directors. That’s not what this country was founded on,” Richmond, who represents the 2nd Congressional District, told representatives of the Metal Trades Department of the AFL-CIO during a press conference Friday in New Orleans.

“This country was founded on some very basic principles, which is loving our neighbor, helping our fellow man, our fellow woman, and making this country a better place.”

OK, I thought we were founded because we were people who believed they were free and had enough of abuse from King George III… I think I’ve heard of before…We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Also I thought the purpose of a business was to make money for the owner...be it the stock holders of a major industry like Ford Motor Company (sorry, Obama Morors formerly known as GM and Chrysler) or a gas station down the road run by a husband/wife. No, that is the economy of the past...

Now I wonder what kind of man thinks this so I looked up Mr Richmond’s biography and wanted to see what prepared him for Congress. Well, let’s see…he went to college, then to law school, then to the state legislature…now he’s a congressman….why do I see a bad pattern. Another idiot elected to congress who had no idea what the real world is about. And people wonder why we have problems like we do.

I've often said college makes you educated but it doesn't necessarily make you intelligent. Need I say more.

What's going on in the World Today 110214

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USA
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

EUROPE
Russia, Norway: Joint Naval Exercise To Be Held In May February 14, 2011

Russian and Norwegian military vessels, planes and helicopters will hold joint military exercises in the Barents and Norwegian Seas originating at the Russian Northern fleet’s main base of Severomorsk on May 7 and ending in Tromso in northern Norway on May 17, Barents Observer reported Feb. 14. Both countries’ military officials will meet at the Norwegian Joint Headquarters in Bodo Feb. 14-15 to plan the details of the joint exercise named “Pomor-2011.”

ASIA http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/spike.htm
South Korea: Israeli Missile May Be Deployed On Yeonpyeong Island February 14, 2011

The South Korean military is expected to place Spike long-range precision-guided missiles on Yeonpyeong Island in mid-2012, a South Korean government source said, Yonhap reported Feb. 14. The South Korean military hopes to buy about 50 GPS-equipped Spike missiles, the fifth generation model currently in development, from Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. The deployment is part of Seoul’s plan to bolster defenses at the island, which was shelled by the North in November 2010.

RUSSIA
Russia: Suicide Bombings Kill 2, Injure 23 February 14, 2011

Two suicide bombers attacked security forces in Gubden, Dagestan province, Russia, on Feb. 14, killing two security officials and wounding 23 others, AP reported, citing unnamed officials and news reports. One bomber, a female, blew herself up as she tried to enter a police station, killing one and wounding six. The other bomber crashed his explosive-laden car near a police post, killing one and wounding 17, Interfax reported. Gubden is about 60 kilometers (40 miles) south of the capital, Makhachkala.

IRAN
Iran: Opposition Leader Place Under House Arrest February 14, 2011

Iranian police placed opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest to prevent him from attending a rally in Tehran supporting the Egyptian protests, according to Mousavi’s official Kaleme.com, BBC reported Feb. 14. According the website, police vans blocked the lane to Mousavi’s house and disconnected his mobile phones and land lines. Iranian authorities increased security in Tehran, blocked access to internet sites and began jamming satellite news channels.


Iran: Hundreds Rally In Tehran, Esfahan February 14, 2011

Hundreds of Iranian protesters marched in Tehran in a banned rally supporting the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt but were blocked by riot police, according to witnesses, Reuters reported Feb. 14. In Tehran, demonstrators traveled on Azadi Street toward Azadi Square, a common rallying point for protesters, before being halted by the police. No clashes between police and demonstrators took place, according to witnesses. Hundreds of marchers also gathered in Esfahan.

Iran: Security Forces Use Teargas To Disperse Protesters - Witness February 14, 2011

Iranian security forces fired teargas near Imam Hossein square in central Tehran on Feb. 14 to disperse thousands of opposition supporters marching in a banned rally inspired by popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, a witness said, Reuters reported. A BBC producer affected by the gas described Tehran as being in “total chaos,” adding that clashes were taking place between protesters and police. Other witnesses said police fired paintball guns at protesters as well.


Iran: Dozens Of Protesters Arrested February 14, 2011

Dozens of Iranian opposition protesters were arrested in Tehran on Feb. 14 after rallying to support the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, Reuters reported, citing opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi’s website, Kaleme.com. Dozens of protesters were also arrested in the city of Isfahan, an unnamed witness said.

Iran: Subway Stations Near Protest Route Closed February 14, 2011

In order to prevent demonstrators from reaching the protest route between Imam Hossein Square and Azadi Square, Tehran transportation officials have closed subway stations leading to the center of the city, Iranian reformist website Green Voice of Freedom reported Feb. 14. At metro stops such as Imam Hossein, Ferdowsi, Vali Asr, Enqelab, Azadi Square and Navvab, subway drivers are refusing to stop so that protesters cannot get off and join the march.

Iran: Citizen Shot, Killed At Opposition Rally - Report February 14, 2011

An Iranian citizen was shot and killed and several others were injured during an opposition rally in Tehran, Fars News Agency reported Feb. 14.

IRAQ
Iraq: Diverts F-16 Funds To Food For Poor February 14, 2011

Iraq has postponed the purchase of 18 F-16 fighter planes from the United States this year and diverted the funds to improving food rations for the poor, AFP reported Feb. 14. Mohammed Khalil, a Kurdish MP and member of parliament’s finance committee, said $900 million originally earmarked for the purchase of the F-16s in the new draft budget for 2011 will now be used to finance rations and social benefits instead. Khalil said the committee had to make choices due to a budget deficit.

ISRAEL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

AFGHANISTAN
A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Feb. 2-8, 2011 | STRATFOR

MIDDLE EAST
Agenda: With George Friedman on Egypt | STRATFOR

Egypt: Peace Treaty With Israel Over - Opposition Leader February 14, 2011

Ayman Nur, leader of Egypt’s El Ghad Party, said on Egyptian radio and Israeli Channel 2 radio that the peace treaty with Israel is over and that Egypt must at least renegotiate the terms of the treaty. Egypt’s new military leaders have said that they will honor the peace treaty.

Egypt's Military Council Suspends Constitution | STRATFOR
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Mexico: At Least 18 Killed In Padilla February 14, 2011

Unidentified gunmen shot and killed at least 18 people Feb. 13 in Padilla, Tamaulipas state, Milenio reported Feb. 14. The gunmen attacked an intercity bus, killing one person and five members of a family traveling in a vehicle. At least seven people were killed in the town’s central plaza. The attackers also shot at the local courthouse and the city hall.

Mexico: Monterrey Police Director Killed February 14, 2011

Unidentified gunmen shot and killed Homero Salcido Trevino, the director of a Public Security Secretariat regional law enforcement center in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, El Universal reported Feb. 14. The official’s body was found Feb. 13 in a burning abandoned vehicle in downtown Monterrey.

MISC
Dispatch: Developing Angola's Diamond Industry | STRATFOR

Chinese 'Honey Traps' and Highly Coordinated Espionage | STRATFOR

Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com

He lived well.....'Never missed a Super Bowl' member dies at age 79

I can think of many a worse record to have...

'Never missed a Super Bowl' member dies at age 79

In this Jan. 12, 2011 photo, Bob Cook displays some of his Super Bowl ticket stubs in Brown Deer, Wis. Cook, one of the men featured in a Visa credit card television ad for having never missed a Super Bowl has died at age 79....

....One of the men featured in a Visa credit card television commercial for having never missed a Super Bowl has died. He was 79.

Bob Cook had been to 44 straight Super Bowls but couldn't make to Texas to watch his beloved Green Bay Packers defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Feb. 6. Instead, Cook viewed the game from his hospital bed with his wife, who decorated his room with green and gold lights.

Cook, whose obituary ends with "GO PACK GO," died last week after a blood infection and other chronic issues, including congestive heart failure, his wife, Sarah Cook, said Monday.

She said they had their bags packed and were ready to go, but Bob Cook told his wife three days before the game that he was too ill to travel to the game.

"I'm just a die-hard Packer fan," he told The Associated Press before the Packers win over the Bears in the NFC championship game on Jan. 23. "I'd rather watch football than any other sport."

The Brown Deer, Wis., man and the three other members of the "Never Missed a Super Bowl" club — Thomas Henschel, of Tampa, Fla., Larry Jacobson, of San Francisco and Don Crisman, Kennebunk, Maine — were the stars of the Visa ad leading up to the Super Bowl.

Tom Henschel, 69, said Cook was the last to join the group, during the 36th Super Bowl. Henschel had met Crisman and another man who also had been to every Super Bowl around the 17th Super Bowl.

...Cook was the former owner of Bob Cook's Vagabond Travel Service and started going to Super Bowls while working there. When asked in January why he goes to every Super Bowl he said: "I don't like the season to end."

"When football's over I wait for the preseason," he said. "No, I wait for the draft. Then the preseason. Then the season. Then the post-season. I worked hard not to let it end."

That is a fan!

...As for how much money he spent on going to each game — Cook said he doesn't know.

"I probably could have bought a better house or put a couple new cars in the garage" he said in January. "It's all worth it and I'm very happy with my household and the way it is."

Cook has said the 31st Super Bowl was his favorite, when the Packers beat the Patriots in New Orleans. And he had hoped he would make it to the 50th Super Bowl.

Sarah Cook, 60, said her husband of 28 years enjoyed the doing the commercial this summer and all the attention since then.

"He had so much fun with this," she said. "The last couple months of his life were truly enjoyable."

That is the point, to enjoy your life. And he spent his money enjoying what he loved, the Packers...and we all know he is up there with Vince Lombari and having a grand old time...

When I post on an Officer Down I end it with "Rest in Peace Bro...We'll Continue the Watch." All I can is "Rest in Peace Bob...We'll Contine to Watch."

Officer Down

Police Officer Aaron Peru
San Carlos Apache Tribal Police Department (Arizona)
End of Watch: Sunday, February 13, 2011
Age: 26
Tour of Duty: 1 month

Officer Aaron Peru was killed in an automobile accident on U.S. 70 near Safford.

A trailer being pulled by an oncoming vehicle broke free and collided with his car head-on, causing fatal injuries.

Officer Peru had served with the San Carlos Apache Tribal Police Department for only 30 days. He is survived by his four children and parents.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Geopolitical Weekly : Egypt: The Distance Between Enthusiasm and Reality February 13, 2011

By George Friedman

On Feb. 11, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned. A military council was named to govern in his place. On Feb. 11-12, the crowds that had gathered in Tahrir Square celebrated Mubarak’s fall and the triumph of democracy in Egypt. On Feb. 13, the military council abolished the constitution and dissolved parliament, promising a new constitution to be ratified by a referendum and stating that the military would rule for six months, or until the military decides it’s ready to hold parliamentary and presidential elections.

What we see is that while Mubarak is gone, the military regime in which he served has dramatically increased its power. This isn’t incompatible with democratic reform. Organizing elections, political parties and candidates is not something that can be done quickly. If the military is sincere in its intentions, it will have to do these things. The problem is that if the military is insincere it will do exactly the same things. Six months is a long time, passions can subside and promises can be forgotten.

At this point, we simply don’t know what will happen. We do know what has happened. Mubarak is out of office, the military regime remains intact and it is stronger than ever. This is not surprising, given what STRATFOR has said about recent events in Egypt, but the reality of what has happened in the last 72 hours and the interpretation that much of the world has placed on it are startlingly different. Power rests with the regime, not with the crowds. In our view, the crowds never had nearly as much power as many have claimed.

Certainly, there was a large crowd concentrated in a square in Cairo, and there were demonstrations in other cities. But the crowd was limited. It never got to be more than 300,000 people or so in Tahrir Square, and while that’s a lot of people, it is nothing like the crowds that turned out during the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe or the 1979 revolution in Iran. Those were massive social convulsions in which millions came out onto the streets. The crowd in Cairo never swelled to the point that it involved a substantial portion of the city.

In a genuine revolution, the police and military cannot contain the crowds. In Egypt, the military chose not to confront the demonstrators, not because the military itself was split, but because it agreed with the demonstrators’ core demand: getting rid of Mubarak. And since the military was the essence of the Egyptian regime, it is odd to consider this a revolution.

Mubarak and the Regime

The crowd in Cairo, as telegenic as it was, was the backdrop to the drama, not the main feature. The main drama began months ago when it became apparent that Mubarak intended to make his reform-minded 47-year-old son, Gamal, lacking in military service, president of Egypt. This represented a direct challenge to the regime. In a way, Mubarak was the one trying to overthrow the regime.

The Egyptian regime was founded in a coup led by Col. Gamal Abdul Nasser and modeled after that of Kemal Ataturk of Turkey, basing it on the military. It was intended to be a secular regime with democratic elements, but it would be guaranteed and ultimately controlled by the military. Nasser believed that the military was the most modern and progressive element of Egyptian society and that it had to be given the responsibility and power to modernize Egypt.

While Nasser took off his uniform, the military remained the bulwark of the regime. Each successive president of Egypt, Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak, while formally elected in elections of varying dubiousness, was an officer in the Egyptian military who had removed his uniform when he entered political life.

Mubarak’s decision to name his son represented a direct challenge to the Egyptian regime. Gamal Mubarak was not a career military officer, nor was he linked to the military’s high command, which had been the real power in the regime. Mubarak’s desire to have his son succeed him appalled and enraged the Egyptian military, the defender of the regime. If he were to be appointed, then the military regime would be replaced by, in essence, a hereditary monarchy — what had ruled Egypt before the military. Large segments of the military had been maneuvering to block Mubarak’s ambitions and, with increasing intensity, wanted to see Mubarak step down in order to pave the way for an orderly succession using the elections scheduled for September, elections designed to affirm the regime by selecting a figure acceptable to the senior military men. Mubarak’s insistence on Gamal and his unwillingness to step down created a crisis for the regime.

The military feared the regime could not survive Mubarak’s ambitions.
This is the key point to understand. There is a critical distinction between the regime and Hosni Mubarak. The regime consisted — and consists — of complex institutions centered on the military but also including the civilian bureaucracy controlled by the military. Hosni Mubarak was the leader of the regime, successor to Nasser and Sadat, who over time came to distinguish his interests from those of the regime. He was increasingly seen as a threat to the regime, and the regime turned on him.

The demonstrators never called for the downfall of the regime. They demanded that Mubarak step aside. This was the same demand that was being made by many if not most officers in the military months before the crowds gathered in the streets. The military did not like the spectacle of the crowds, which is not the way the military likes to handle political matters. At the same time, paradoxically, the military welcomed the demonstrations, since they created a crisis that put the question of Mubarak’s future on the table. They gave the military an opportunity to save the regime and preserve its own interests.

The Egyptian military is opaque. It isn’t clear who was reluctant to act and who was eager. We would guess that the people who now make up the ruling military council were reluctant to act. They were of the same generation as Hosni Mubarak, owed their careers to him and were his friends. Younger officers, who had joined the military after 1973 and had trained with the Americans rather than the Soviets, were the likely agitators for blocking Mubarak’s selection of Gamal as his heir, but there were also senior officers publicly expressing reservations. Who was on what side is a guess. What is known is that many in the military opposed Gamal, would not push the issue to a coup, and then staged a coup designed to save the regime after the demonstrations in Cairo were under way.

That is the point. What happened was not a revolution. The demonstrators never brought down Mubarak, let alone the regime. What happened was a military coup that used the cover of protests to force Mubarak out of office in order to preserve the regime. When it became clear Feb. 10 that Mubarak would not voluntarily step down, the military staged what amounted to a coup to force his resignation. Once he was forced out of office, the military took over the existing regime by creating a military council and taking control of critical ministries. The regime was always centered on the military. What happened on Feb. 11 was that the military took direct control.

Again, as a guess, the older officers, friends of Mubarak, found themselves under pressure from other officers and the United States to act. They finally did, taking the major positions for themselves. The demonstrations were the backdrop for this drama and the justification for the military’s actions, but they were not a revolution in the streets. It was a military coup designed to preserve a military-dominated regime. And that was what the crowds were demanding as well.
Coup and Revolution

We now face the question of whether the coup will turn into a revolution. The demonstrators demanded — and the military has agreed to hold — genuinely democratic elections and to stop repression. It is not clear that the new leaders mean what they have said or were simply saying it to get the crowds to go home. But there are deeper problems in the democratization of Egypt. First, Mubarak’s repression had wrecked civil society. The formation of coherent political parties able to find and run candidates will take a while. Second, the military is deeply enmeshed in running the country. Backing them out of that position, with the best will in the world, will require time. The military bought time Feb. 13, but it is not clear that six months is enough time, and it is not clear that, in the end, the military will want to leave the position it has held for more than half a century.

Of course, there is the feeling, as there was in 2009 with the Tehran demonstrations, that something unheard of has taken place, as U.S. President Barack Obama has implied. It is said to have something to do with Twitter and Facebook. We should recall that, in our time, genuine revolutions that destroyed regimes took place in 1989 and 1979, the latter even before there were PCs. Indeed, such revolutions go back to the 18th century. None of them required smartphones, and all of them were more thorough and profound than what has happened in Egypt so far. This revolution will not be “Twitterized.” The largest number of protesters arrived in Tahrir Square after the Internet was completely shut down.

The new government has promised to honor all foreign commitments, which obviously include the most controversial one in Egypt, the treaty with Israel. During the celebrations the evening of Feb. 11 and morning of Feb. 12, the two chants were about democracy and Palestine. While the regime committed itself to maintaining the treaty with Israel, the crowds in the square seemed to have other thoughts, not yet clearly defined. But then, it is not clear that the demonstrators in the square represent the wishes of 80 million Egyptians. For all the chatter about the Egyptian people demanding democracy, the fact is that hardly anyone participated in the demonstrations, relative to the number of Egyptians there are, and no one really knows how the Egyptian people would vote on this issue.

The Egyptian government is hardly in a position to confront Israel, even if it wanted to. The Egyptian army has mostly American equipment and cannot function if the Americans don’t provide spare parts or contractors to maintain that equipment. There is no Soviet Union vying to replace the United States today. Re-equipping and training a military the size of Egypt’s is measured in decades, not weeks. Egypt is not going to war any time soon. But then the new rulers have declared that all prior treaties — such as with Israel — will remain in effect.

What Was Achieved?

Therefore, we face this reality. The Egyptian regime is still there, still controlled by old generals. They are committed to the same foreign policy as the man they forced out of office. They have promised democracy, but it is not clear that they mean it. If they mean it, it is not clear how they would do it, certainly not in a timeframe of a few months. Indeed, this means that the crowds may re-emerge demanding more rapid democratization, depending on who organized the crowds in the first place and what their intentions are now.

It is not that nothing happened in Egypt, and it is not that it isn’t important. It is simply that what happened was not what the media portrayed but a much more complex process, most of it not viewable on TV. Certainly, there was nothing unprecedented in what was achieved or how it was achieved. It is not even clear what was achieved. Nor is it clear that anything that has happened changes Egyptian foreign or domestic policy. It is not even clear that those policies could be changed in practical terms regardless of intent.

The week began with an old soldier running Egypt. It ended with different old soldiers running Egypt with even more formal power than Mubarak had. This has caused worldwide shock and awe. We were killjoys in 2009, when we said the Iranians revolution wasn’t going anywhere. We do not want to be killjoys now, since everyone is so excited and happy. But we should point out that, in spite of the crowds, nothing much has really happened yet in Egypt. It doesn’t mean that it won’t, but it hasn’t yet.

An 82-year-old man has been thrown out of office, and his son will not be president. The constitution and parliament are gone and a military junta is in charge. The rest is speculation.

This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR

What's going on in the World Today 110212

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USA

February 2, Washington Post – (National) Mental health specialist recommended WikiLeaks suspect not be deployed to Iraq. A mental health specialist recommended the U.S. Army private accused of leaking classified material to WikiLeaks not be deployed to Iraq, but his immediate commanders sent him anyway, according to a military official familiar with a new Army investigation. The investigation concluded the commanders’ decision not to heed the specialist’s advice and their failure to properly discipline the Army private may have contributed to one of the most high-profile classified military network breaches in decades, the military official said. The investigation, which is separate from an ongoing criminal inquiry, found the private’s immediate supervisors did not follow procedures for overseeing the secure area where the classified information was kept, greatly increasing the risk of a security breach. A source familiar with the private’s mental health records indicated the stress that led the soldier to seek help was caused primarily by a faltering personal relationship. At Fort Drum, he balled up his fists and screamed at higher-ranking soldiers in his unit. In Iraq, a master sergeant who supervised the private was so concerned about his mental health he disabled his weapon in December 2009. Also in Iraq, in May 2010, the private was demoted a rank for assaulting a fellow soldier, the Army said. The master sergeant charged with overseeing the private’s day-to-day activities kept extensive records of his alleged outbursts and shortcomings as a soldier, but did not discipline him properly or compel him to get help, said the military official familiar with the non-criminal Army investigation. Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020106858.html

February 7, DefenseNews – (International) U.S. TRANSCOM operates despite enemy attacks. U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) suffers more cyber attacks than any other combatant command, according to its Air Force General commander. This is partly because, unlike other commands, TRANSCOM relies on unclassified and commercial networks to deliver supplies and passengers all over the world, the commander said February 7 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. In 2010, there were 33,326 “computer network events against TRANSCOM,” according to the four-star’s briefing. In addition to cyber attacks, TRANSCOM is the target of piracy and other supply-route attacks, a particular vulnerability for operations in Afghanistan, a landlocked country. TRANSCOM conducts 90 percent of its operations by surface transportation, leaving 10 percent carried out by airlift. However, in Afghanistan, 30 percent is delivered by air, the commander said. Air transport is 10 times more expensive than surface delivery, he said. Sensitive, high-value products travel by air, according to the commander, who said he is confident about the transit options available. In case something unforeseen happens, such as the floods in Pakistan, the coup in Kyrgyzstan or the volcano in Iceland, TRANSCOM has enough options to fall back on, he said. Source: http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5644269&c=AME&s=AIR

EUROPE
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO REPORT

ASIA
Pakistan: 4th Nuclear Reactor Under Construction February 10, 2011

A fourth nuclear reactor appears to be under construction at Pakistan’s Khushab nuclear site, Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported Feb. 9, citing commercial satellite imagery. Located several hundred meters south of the second and third Khushab reactor compound, the suspected site of the new reactor is relatively early in its construction, but is similarly sized to the second and third reactors. The arrangement of the other buildings to the reactor’s blueprint is consistent with the building arrangement of the third reactor when it was under construction. U.S. intelligence agencies have been monitoring Khushab for years and are “aware of this facility,” The Washington Post reported Feb. 9.

RUSSIA
Russia: Caucasus Emirate Leader Tied To Airport Bombing February 11, 2011

Doku Umarov, the head of the Caucasus Emirate militant group, has been linked to the Jan. 24 bombing at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport, RIA Novosti reported Feb. 11, citing North Caucasus Federal District presidential envoy Alexander Khloponin. Umarov is less influential in assigning positions or tasks than in previous years, but his participation is under investigation, Khloponin said.

U.S.: Regional Concerns Rising About Kaliningrad Arsenal February 11, 2011

Poland and other Eastern European countries near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad are concerned by rumors that Russia may build up its stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons to use as a political tool, chief U.S. negotiator for the New START treaty Rose Gottemoeller said, AP reported Feb. 11. Gottemoeller spoke after meetings in Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.

IRAN
Iran: Nuclear Fusion Technology Achieved - Report February 10, 2011

Iran has achieved nuclear fusion capability, IRNA reported Feb. 10. Using the inertial electrostatic confinement method, Iran joins the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and France as countries to have achieved this technology.

IRAQ
Iraq: Protesters Kept Out Of Green Zone
February 11, 2011
Iraqi security forces on Feb. 11 kept hundreds of protesters from entering the Green Zone, Aswat al-Iraq reported, citing an unnamed security source. The source said lawmakers were getting ready to negotiate with the protesters. Helicopters were over the area. Similar protests were held in Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Karbala, Najaf, Diwaniya, Kut, Ramadi, Samawa and Amara. In Baghdad, Karbala and Samawa, members of the Iraqi union of lawyers joined the protests.

Iraq: Mass Grave Uncovered In Diyala Province February 12, 2011

Iraqi authorities uncovered a mass grave in al-Tarf, Diyala province, containing the bodies of 153 victims of al Qaeda operations, local police said Feb. 12, AFP reported. The discovery comes as a result of a confession from an al Qaeda terrorist captured in Baquba two weeks ago, Diyala provincial police chief Gen. Abdul Hussein al-Sahamari said. Al-Tarf is located 20 kilometers (about 12 miles) of Buqaba.

Iraq: Bus Carrying Shiite Pilgrims Hit, 28 Dead February 12, 2011

At least 28 people were dead and 24 injured on Feb. 12 in Iraq after a suicide car bomb struck a bus carrying Shiite pilgrims, police said, CNN reported. The bus was hit between Baghdad and Samurra. Most of the casualties were Shiite pilgrims traveling to Nasiriya after visiting Samarra.

ISRAEL
Israel: Security Forces Prepared For Protests February 10, 2011

Israeli security forces are preparing for repercussions from the protests in Tunis and Egypt with training drills and preparations to close main roads if necessary, Ma’an reported Feb. 10. An Israeli official said some fear the protests could spread to the Palestinian territories. Police, border guards, the army, intelligence officers and the Mossad are on alert, and forces will be focused around the Palestinian population centers of Haifa, Acre, Jaffa, Lod, Ramla, Jerusalem and Beersheba, the official added.

AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan: Permanent U.S. Military Bases Welcomed February 11, 2011

Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said he would welcome permanent U.S. military bases in the country and that he believes such a move would bring stability in the long term, Noor TV reported Feb. 11. First Deputy Senate Speaker Mohammad Alam Ezedyar said that the establishment of bases will only be effective if the duration of the stay and the responsibilities of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan are specified.

Afghanistan: Suicide Bombers Attack Kandahar Police Headquarters February 12, 2011

Suicide bombers killed an Afghan soldier and wounded 28 people Feb. 12 during an attack on the provincial police headquarters in Kandahar, Afghanistan, Reuters reported. Insurgents detonated a car bomb outside the building just before two suicide bombers blew themselves up in the street, a spokesman for the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force said. A third militant wearing a suicide vest was shot and wounded in a nearby wedding hall before he could detonate his device, the spokesman said, adding that he was taken into custody. The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack, which lasted several hours.

MIDDLE EAST
Egypt: Military Council Chief Meets With Ministers February 12, 2011

Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the military council now ruling Egypt, met Feb. 12 with the country’s state ministers, including Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq and Interior Minister Mahmoud Wagdy, Reuters reported, citing State TV. The ministers discussed the need for an immediate return to normalcy, as well as the need for the police to return to duty. Tantawi also met with the head of the Egyptian constitutional court and the justice minister, during which they addressed legal aspects of the transition of power.

Egypt: Curfew To Begin At Midnight, Go For 6 Hours February 12, 2011

Egypt’s military council announced on Feb. 12 that the curfew has been lowered to midnight until 6 a.m. local time, beginning Feb. 12, Petra reported.

Egypt: Bans To Travel Include Company Heads
February 12, 2011
Some Egyptian officials, including former ministers, top officials and company heads, have been banned from leaving the country without permission from the state prosecutor or the military, Reuters reported Feb. 12, citing an unnamed security source at the Cairo airport. The source said the move was designed to keep people from avoiding questioning.

SOUTH OF THE BORDER
Venezuela: Fuel Shipments To Nicaragua Suspended
February 11, 2011
Venezuela has reportedly suspended shipments of 28,000 barrels per day of gasoline and diesel to Nicaragua due to alleged financial irregularities discovered during auditing of Nicaraguan firm Alba Petroleos de Nicaragua by Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., El Nuevo Diario reported Feb. 11. Shipments were reportedly suspended three weeks ago as a means to pressure a full review of Alba Petroleos de Nicaragua financial records. Nicaragua has been relying on its fuel reserves since the suspension of shipments.

MISC
China: Hackers Use Chinese Company's Servers February 11, 2011

Song Zhiyue, a salesman for a Chinese company in Heze, Shandong province, told U.S. security firm McAfee his company rents server space to hundreds of hackers, estimating the hackers used 10,000 “meat computers” with his company’s servers, AP reported Feb. 11. Song said he has heard of Chinese hackers targeting U.S. oil companies, but the Chinese government never contacted him about the hackers’ activities.

China: PetroChina Buys $5.4 Billion Of Canadian Gas Assets February 10, 2011

Chinese state-owned energy giant PetroChina purchased one half of a shale gas project from Canada’s Encana Corp for $5.4 billion, the largest Chinese investment in a foreign natural gas asset, Reuters reported Feb. 10. As one of North America’s largest natural gas producers, Encana will form a 50-50 joint venture with PetroChina to develop the Cutbank Ridge lands in the western Canadian province of British Columbia over the next few years

China: Hackers Attack Energy Firms' Websites February 10, 2011

At least five multinational oil and natural gas companies’ computer networks were attacked by hackers based in China, The New York Times reported Feb. 10. The hackers stole intellectual property for up to four years, using intrusion methods in an operation called “Night Dragon,” McAfee announced, IDG News reported. Targeting companies’ public websites, hackers also used social-engineering techniques to obtain information from executives in Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Greece and the United States, IDG reported. Chinese hacking tools were used, and the attacks originated from Beijing Internet protocol addresses between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. local time.


Except where noted courtesy www.stratfor.com

Is snow really that much fun....

As I sit at a traffic assignment (aka wasting a lot of time because the genius's who run my agency can't believe people don’t run the red lights at this intersection) I was reviewing my emails and got a memo from my high school friend Mark. The comments on "Why I live in the South" are head on. Especially the driving (or lack thereof).

Last week Houston had three hard freezes but the first was the worse. We had just had a rain so there was ice all over the highways. I drove home at 300am on Friday the 4th and in 20 miles of interstate travel (again, this is at 300am on a non-weekend night) I counted no less than 20 wrecks on the highway. People around here don't know how to drive on ice (some would make snide comments on driving period but that's a different subject for a different day :<) ). For people who have never experienced it driving on ice is scary as hell because you lose all control of your vehicle. And I've always loved idiots in 4X4s who say "I can handle it..." Yo moron, that means instead of two wheels spinning uncontrollably you have four wheels spinning uncontrollably.



I've occasionally got into a discussion with some of my friends here where someone says “I'd rather have the cold than the heat...I can always put more cloths on..." My answer has always been to ask them “Have you ever lived where it is cold?” and most of the answers are “No, I’ve always lived here…” I ask about planning for an extra 10-30 minutes of driving each morning because of the ice and snow…or having to put anti freeze in the gasoline because it freezes too…or having to spend ten to thirty minutes every morning shaving ice and snow off your car like this guy:



But I gotta say there are some fun parts…



Again I’ve lived in Colorado and Korea…I’ve been in Japan in the January and Iowa in December…give my the deep south any day!

Officer Down

Police Officer Jonathon Bastock
Stow Ohio Police Department
End of Watch: Saturday, February 5, 2011
Age: 47
Tour of Duty: 17 years
Badge Number: 739

Officer Jonathon Bastock passed away from complications of an on duty injury he sustained one month earlier.

Officer Bastock had responded to a call involving a person driving erratically in a parking lot. He had stopped the vehicle and as he approached the rear of it to obtain the license plate number he slipped on ice and fell, severely injuring his knee.

The injury caused him to go out on medical leave. He was recovering at home when he passed away as the result of a blood clot that broke free from the injury.

Officer Bastock had served as a full time officer with the Stow Police Department for 12 years and had previously served as a reserve officer for five years. He is survived by his wife and three children.

Rest in Peace Bro…We’ll Continue The Watch

Day is done, Gone the sun, From the lake, From the hills, From the sky. All is well, Safely rest, God is nigh.

Oprah thinks Obama's Smart...and he needs some respect.

I blogged yesterday on our President and how he doesn't get the concept repect is earned by accomplishment.  Well at least B Hussein Obama has one person who thinks he needs repect.

Oprah called on President Obama's critics on Friday to “show some level of respect.”

"I feel that everybody has a learning curve, and I feel that the reason why I was willing to step out for him was because I believed in his integrity and I believed in his heart," the influential TV host said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in Chicago.

Of the negative mood of the country, Oprah added, “I think everybody complaining ought to try it for once.”

She said the presidency is a position that “holds a sense of authority and governance over us all,” and that “even if you’re not in support of his policies, there needs to be a certain level of respect."

Ms Winfrey I hate to put this to you but your clueless and you shouldn't be. You have built a multi media empire worth over a billion dollars from nothing. You and your network are not my cup of meat but I respect you because you did it yourself. Now Obama has accomplished what to prepare him for the presidency?

I don't care for your politics but I would say you would be better prepared for this office than B Hussein Obama. And your pathetic defense of him with "...there needs to be a certain level of respect." brings to mind another unsecure man child in over his head who wants more respect.

Security Weekly- .Mexico's Gun Supply and the 90 Percent Myth February 10, 2011

By Scott Stewart

For several years now, STRATFOR has been closely watching developments in Mexico that relate to what we consider the three wars being waged there. Those three wars are the war between the various drug cartels, the war between the government and the cartels and the war being waged against citizens and businesses by criminals.

In addition to watching tactical developments of the cartel wars on the ground and studying the dynamics of the conflict among the various warring factions, we have also been paying close attention to the ways that both the Mexican and U.S. governments have reacted to these developments. Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects to watch has been the way in which the Mexican government has tried to deflect responsibility for the cartel wars away from itself and onto the United States. According to the Mexican government, the cartel wars are not a result of corruption in Mexico or of economic and societal dynamics that leave many Mexicans marginalized and desperate to find a way to make a living. Instead, the cartel wars are due to the insatiable American appetite for narcotics and the endless stream of guns that flows from the United States into Mexico and that results in Mexican violence.

Interestingly, the part of this argument pertaining to guns has been adopted by many politicians and government officials in the United States in recent years. It has now become quite common to hear U.S. officials confidently assert that 90 percent of the weapons used by the Mexican drug cartels come from the United States. However, a close examination of the dynamics of the cartel wars in Mexico — and of how the oft-echoed 90 percent number was reached — clearly demonstrates that the number is more political rhetoric than empirical fact.


By the Numbers

As we discussed in a previous analysis, the 90 percent number was derived from a June 2009 U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report to Congress on U.S. efforts to combat arms trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

According to the GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized from criminals by Mexican authorities in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms, information pertaining to 7,200 of them (24 percent) was submitted to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF, and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from the United States.

This means that the 87 percent figure relates to the number of weapons submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF that could be successfully traced and not from the total number of weapons seized by Mexican authorities or even from the total number of weapons submitted to the ATF for tracing. In fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than 48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for tracing. This means that almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States.

The remaining 22,800 firearms seized by Mexican authorities in 2008 were not traced for a variety of reasons. In addition to factors such as bureaucratic barriers and negligence, many of the weapons seized by Mexican authorities either do not bear serial numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated. It is also important to understand that the Mexican authorities simply don’t bother to submit some classes of weapons to the ATF for tracing. Such weapons include firearms they identify as coming from their own military or police forces, or guns that they can trace back themselves as being sold through the Mexican Defense Department’s Arms and Ammunition Marketing Division (UCAM). Likewise, they do not ask ATF to trace military ordnance from third countries like the South Korean fragmentation grenades commonly used in cartel attacks.

Of course, some or even many of the 22,800 firearms the Mexicans did not submit to ATF for tracing may have originated in the United States. But according to the figures presented by the GAO, there is no evidence to support the assertion that 90 percent of the guns used by the Mexican cartels come from the United States — especially when not even 50 percent of those that were submitted for tracing were ultimately found to be of U.S. origin.

This point leads us to consider the types of weapons being used by the Mexican cartels and where they come from.


Types and Sources of Guns

To gain an understanding of the dynamics of the gun flow inside Mexico, it helps if one divides the guns seized by Mexican authorities from criminals into three broad categories — which, incidentally, just happen to represent three different sources.


Type 1: Guns Legally Available in Mexico

The first category of weapons encountered in Mexico is weapons available legally for sale in Mexico through UCAM. These include handguns smaller than a .357 magnum such as .380 and .38 Special.

A large portion of this first type of guns used by criminals is purchased in Mexico, or stolen from their legitimate owners. While UCAM does have very strict regulations for civilians to purchase guns, criminals will use straw purchasers to obtain firearms from UCAM or obtain them from corrupt officials. Cartel hit men in Mexico commonly use .380 pistols equipped with sound suppressors in their assassinations. In many cases, these pistols are purchased in Mexico, the suppressors are locally manufactured and the guns are adapted to receive the suppressors by Mexican gunsmiths.

It must be noted, though, that because of the cost and hassle of purchasing guns in Mexico, many of the guns in this category are purchased in the United States and smuggled into the country. There are a lot of cheap guns available on the U.S. market, and they can be sold at a premium in Mexico. Indeed, guns in this category, such as .380 pistols and .22-caliber rifles and pistols, are among the guns most commonly traced back to the United States. Still, the numbers do not indicate that 90 percent of guns in this category come from the United States.

Additionally, most of the explosives the cartels have been using in improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Mexico over the past year have used commercially available Tovex, so we consider these explosives to fall in this first category. Mexican IEDs are another area where the rhetoric has been interesting to analyze, but we will explore this topic another time.


Type 2: Guns Legally Available in the U.S. but Not in Mexico

Many popular handgun calibers, such as 9 mm, .45 and .40, are reserved for the military and police and are not available for sale to civilians in Mexico. These guns, which are legally sold and very popular in the United States, comprise our second category, which also includes .50-caliber rifles, semiautomatic versions of assault rifles like the AK-47 and M16 and the FN Five-Seven pistol.

When we consider this second type of guns, a large number of them encountered in Mexico are likely purchased in the United States. Indeed, the GAO report notes that many of the guns most commonly traced back to the United States fall into this category. There are also many .45-caliber and 9 mm semiautomatic pistols and .357 revolvers obtained from deserters from the Mexican military and police, purchased from corrupt Mexican authorities or even brought in from South America (guns made by manufacturers such as Taurus and Bersa). This category also includes semiautomatic variants of assault rifles and main battle rifles, which are often converted by Mexican gunsmiths to be capable of fully automatic fire.

One can buy these types of weapons on the international arms market, but one pays a premium for such guns and it is cheaper and easier to simply buy them in the United States or South America and smuggle them into Mexico. In fact, there is an entire cottage industry that has developed to smuggle such weapons, and not all the customers are cartel hit men. There are many Mexican citizens who own guns in calibers such as .45, 9 mm, .40 and .44 magnum for self-defense — even though such guns are illegal in Mexico.


Type 3: Guns Not Available for Civilian Purchase in Mexico or the U.S.

The third category of weapons encountered in Mexico is military grade ordnance not generally available for sale in the United States or Mexico. This category includes hand grenades, 40 mm grenades, rocket-propelled grenades, automatic assault rifles and main battle rifles and light machine guns.

This third type of weapon is fairly difficult and very expensive to obtain in the United States (especially in the large numbers in which the cartels are employing them). They are also dangerous to obtain in the United States due to heavy law-enforcement scrutiny. Therefore, most of the military ordnance used by the Mexican cartels comes from other sources, such as the international arms market (increasingly from China via the same networks that furnish precursor chemicals for narcotics manufacturing), or from corrupt elements in the Mexican military or even deserters who take their weapons with them. Besides, items such as South Korean fragmentation grenades and RPG-7s, often used by the cartels, simply are not in the U.S. arsenal. This means that very few of the weapons in this category come from the United States.

In recent years the cartels (especially their enforcer groups such as Los Zetas, Gente Nueva and La Linea) have been increasingly using military weaponry instead of sporting arms. A close examination of the arms seized from the enforcer groups and their training camps clearly demonstrates this trend toward military ordnance, including many weapons not readily available in the United States. Some of these seizures have included M60 machine guns and hundreds of 40 mm grenades obtained from the military arsenals of countries like Guatemala.

But Guatemala is not the only source of such weapons. Latin America is awash in weapons that were shipped there over the past several decades to supply the various insurgencies and counterinsurgencies in the region. When these military-grade weapons are combined with the rampant corruption in the region, they quickly find their way into the black arms market. The Mexican cartels have supply-chain contacts that help move narcotics to Mexico from South America and they are able to use this same network to obtain guns from the black market in South and Central America and then smuggle them into Mexico. While there are many weapons in this category that were manufactured in the United States, the overwhelming majority of the U.S.-manufactured weapons of this third type encountered in Mexico — like LAW rockets and M60 machine guns — come into Mexico from third countries and not directly from the United States.

There are also some cases of overlap between classes of weapons. For example, the FN Five-Seven pistol is available for commercial purchase in the United States, but the 5.7x28 armor-piercing ammunition for the pistol favored by the cartels is not — it is a restricted item. However, some of the special operations forces units in the Mexican military are issued the Five-Seven as well as the FN P90 personal defense weapon, which also shoots the 5.7x28 round, and the cartels are obtaining some of these weapons and the armor-piercing ammunition from them and not from the United States. Conversely, we see bulk 5.56 mm and 7.62 mm ammunition bought in the United States and smuggled into Mexico, where it is used in fully-automatic AK-47s and M16s purchased elsewhere. As noted above, China has become an increasingly common source for military weapons like grenades and fully automatic assault rifles in recent years.

To really understand Mexico’s gun problem, however, it is necessary to recognize that the same economic law of supply and demand that fuels drug smuggling into the United States also fuels gun smuggling into Mexico. Black-market guns in Mexico can fetch up to 300 percent of their normal purchase price — a profit margin rivaling the narcotics the cartels sell. Even if it were somehow possible to hermetically seal the U.S.-Mexico border and shut off all the guns coming from the United States, the cartels would still be able to obtain weapons elsewhere — just as narcotics would continue to flow into the United States from other places. The United States does provide cheap and easy access to certain types of weapons and ammunition, but as demonstrated by groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, weapons can be easily obtained from other sources via the black arms market — albeit at a higher price.

There has clearly been a long and well-documented history of arms smuggling across the U.S.-Mexico border, but it is important to recognize that, while the United States is a significant source of certain classes of weapons and ammunition, it is by no means the source of 90 percent of the weapons used by the Mexican cartels, as is commonly asserted.

Mexico's Gun Supply and the 90 Percent Myth is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

Obama sticks his foot in his mouth again...and the world is really not impressed

I remember when Katie Couric interviewed the then presidential candidate B Hussein Obama and asked him about his favorite movie and he answered:

Obama: Oh, I think it would have to be "The Godfather." One and Two. Three not so much. That saga - I love that movie.

Couric Do you have a favorite scene?

Obama: You know, so many of them. I think my favorite has to be, the opening scene of the first "Godfather" where, where the caretaker comes in and, you know, Marlon Brando is sitting there and he's saying "you disrespected me." You know "and now you want a favor." It sets the tone for the whole movie. Now there …

I’ve said before the man is not a gentlemen but a hood thug (yes, I’m saying that about the current President) and that seems to show something. In his narcissism he wants, no demands respect in spite of never earning it. I would remind the man-child Don Corleone was the top of his chosen field and had earned respect by doing what was required. That is he killed multiple people and built a criminal empire. Wait, maybe he’s not…well let’s not go there.

Now recently Mr Obama put his nose in into the events in Egypt and Saudi King Abdullah reportedly told Obama “Don’t ‘Humiliate’ Mubarak”.Now I wonder if he told our man child president that when he was a college radical smoking weed Mubarak was the president of one of the major nations of the Middle East, having succeeded an assassination leader. He was doing it, bringing a nation to relative peace and prosperity. Is he a dictator, I would say yes. But compared to the Mullah’s in Tehran he’s an angle. And it’s in our interest that Egypt is under stable management. If you want a big reason, look a little east and see what the Muslim Brotherhood allies are doing in Iran. Do we really need another radical regime in the area threatening Israel and with control of the Suez Canal?

Now this morning Mr Obama said "We are following today's events in Egypt very closely…But what is absolutely clear is that we are witnessing history unfold. It's a moment of transformation that's taking place because the people of Egypt are calling for change."

Now the President of Egypt has said he is going nowhere…to paraphrase Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men “Well don’t you look like the idiot.”

I really take no pleasure in seeing the President of the United States humiliated but that is what happened. Not for the man child Obama but for the office of the Presidency. I would hope this would teach B Hussein Obama a lesson. The world is not impressed with you and respect must be earned. Hard men like Mubarak are not intimidated by a neighborhood radical who is woefully short on accomplishments and long on self importance and narcissism.

Again Mr Obama, respect must be earned.

Geopolitical Weekly : Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration February 8, 2011

Things are going fast and furious....as I type this the reports are coming in President Mubarak will retire. But this is a good look at the big picture for Israel and Egypt.

By George Friedman

The events in Egypt have sent shock waves through Israel. The 1978 Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel have been the bedrock of Israeli national security. In three of the four wars Israel fought before the accords, a catastrophic outcome for Israel was conceivable. In 1948, 1967 and 1973, credible scenarios existed in which the Israelis were defeated and the state of Israel ceased to exist. In 1973, it appeared for several days that one of those scenarios was unfolding.

The survival of Israel was no longer at stake after 1978. In the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the various Palestinian intifadas and the wars with Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in Gaza in 2008, Israeli interests were involved, but not survival. There is a huge difference between the two. Israel had achieved a geopolitical ideal after 1978 in which it had divided and effectively made peace with two of the four Arab states that bordered it, and neutralized one of those states. The treaty with Egypt removed the threat to the Negev and the southern coastal approaches to Tel Aviv.

The agreement with Jordan in 1994, which formalized a long-standing relationship, secured the longest and most vulnerable border along the Jordan River. The situation in Lebanon was such that whatever threat emerged from there was limited. Only Syria remained hostile but, by itself, it could not threaten Israel. Damascus was far more focused on Lebanon anyway. As for the Palestinians, they posed a problem for Israel, but without the foreign military forces along the frontiers, the Palestinians could trouble but not destroy Israel. Israel’s existence was not at stake, nor was it an issue for 33 years.

The Historic Egyptian Threat to Israel

The center of gravity of Israel’s strategic challenge was always Egypt. The largest Arab country, with about 80 million people, Egypt could field the most substantial army. More to the point, Egypt could absorb casualties at a far higher rate than Israel. The danger that the Egyptian army posed was that it could close with the Israelis and engage in extended, high-intensity combat that would break the back of the Israel Defense Forces by imposing a rate of attrition that Israel could not sustain. If Israel were to be simultaneously engaged with Syria, dividing its forces and its logistical capabilities, it could run out of troops long before Egypt, even if Egypt were absorbing far more casualties.

The solution for the Israelis was to initiate combat at a time and place of their own choosing, preferably with surprise, as they did in 1956 and 1967. Failing that, as they did in 1973, the Israelis would be forced into a holding action they could not sustain and forced onto an offensive in which the risks of failure — and the possibility — would be substantial.

It was to the great benefit of Israel that Egyptian forces were generally poorly commanded and trained and that Egyptian war-fighting doctrine, derived from Britain and the Soviet Union, was not suited to the battle problem Israel posed. In 1967, Israel won its most complete victory over Egypt, as well as Jordan and Syria. It appeared to the Israelis that the Arabs in general and Egyptians in particular were culturally incapable of mastering modern warfare.

Thus it was an extraordinary shock when, just six years after their 1967 defeat, the Egyptians mounted a two-army assault across the Suez, coordinated with a simultaneous Syrian attack on the Golan Heights. Even more stunning than the assault was the operational security the Egyptians maintained and the degree of surprise they achieved. One of Israel’s fundamental assumptions was that Israeli intelligence would provide ample warning of an attack. And one of the fundamental assumptions of Israeli intelligence was that Egypt could not mount an attack while Israel maintained air superiority. Both assumptions were wrong. But the most important error was the assumption that Egypt could not, by itself, coordinate a massive and complex military operation. In the end, the Israelis defeated the Egyptians, but at the cost of the confidence they achieved in 1967 and a recognition that comfortable assumptions were impermissible in warfare in general and regarding Egypt in particular.

The Egyptians had also learned lessons. The most important was that the existence of the state of Israel did not represent a challenge to Egypt’s national interest. Israel existed across a fairly wide and inhospitable buffer zone — the Sinai Peninsula. The logistical problems involved in deploying a massive force to the east had resulted in three major defeats, while the single partial victory took place on much shorter lines of supply. Holding or taking the Sinai was difficult and possible only with a massive infusion of weapons and supplies from the outside, from the Soviet Union. This meant that Egypt was a hostage to Soviet interests. Egypt had a greater interest in breaking its dependency on the Soviets than in defeating Israel. It could do the former more readily than the latter.

The Egyptian recognition that its interests in Israel were minimal and the Israeli recognition that eliminating the potential threat from Egypt guaranteed its national security have been the foundation of the regional balance since 1978. All other considerations — Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the rest — were trivial in comparison. Geography — the Sinai — made this strategic distancing possible. So did American aid to Egypt. The substitution of American weapons for Soviet ones in the years after the treaty achieved two things. First, they ended Egypt’s dependency on the Soviets. Second, they further guaranteed Israel’s security by creating an Egyptian army dependent on a steady flow of spare parts and contractors from the United States. Cut the flow and the Egyptian army would be crippled.

The governments of Anwar Sadat and then Hosni Mubarak were content with this arrangement. The generation that came to power with Gamal Nasser had fought four wars with Israel and had little stomach for any more. They had proved themselves in October 1973 on the Suez and had no appetite to fight again or to send their sons to war. It is not that they created an oasis of prosperity in Egypt. But they no longer had to go to war every few years, and they were able, as military officers, to live good lives. What is now regarded as corruption was then regarded as just rewards for bleeding in four wars against the Israelis.

Mubarak and the Military

But now is 33 years later, and the world has changed. The generation that fought is very old. Today’s Egyptian military trains with the Americans, and its officers pass through the American command and staff and war colleges. This generation has close ties to the United States, but not nearly as close ties to the British-trained generation that fought the Israelis or to Egypt’s former patrons, the Russians. Mubarak has locked the younger generation, in their fifties and sixties, out of senior command positions and away from the wealth his generation has accumulated. They want him out.

For this younger generation, the idea of Gamal Mubarak being allowed to take over the presidency was the last straw. They wanted the elder Mubarak to leave not only because he had ambitions for his son but also because he didn’t want to leave after more than a quarter century of pressure. Mubarak wanted guarantees that, if he left, his possessions, in addition to his honor, would remain intact. If Gamal could not be president, then no one’s promise had value. So Mubarak locked himself into position.

The cameras love demonstrations, but they are frequently not the real story. The demonstrators who wanted democracy are a real faction, but they don’t speak for the shopkeepers and peasants more interested in prosperity than wealth. Since Egypt is a Muslim country, the West freezes when anything happens, dreading the hand of Osama bin Laden. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood was once a powerful force, and it might become one again someday, but right now it is a shadow of its former self. What is going on now is a struggle within the military, between generations, for the future of the Egyptian military and therefore the heart of the Egyptian regime. Mubarak will leave, the younger officers will emerge, the constitution will make some changes and life will continue.

The Israelis will return to their complacency. They should not. The usual first warning of a heart attack is death. Among the fortunate, it is a mild coronary followed by a dramatic change of life style. The events in Egypt should be taken as a mild coronary and treated with great relief by Israel that it wasn’t worse.

Reconsidering the Israeli Position

I have laid out the reasons why the 1978 treaty is in Egypt’s national interest. I have left out two pieces. The first is ideology. The ideological tenor of the Middle East prior to 1978 was secular and socialist. Today it is increasingly Islamist. Egypt is not immune to this trend, even if the Muslim Brotherhood should not be seen as the embodiment of that threat. Second, military technology, skills and terrain have made Egypt a defensive power for the past 33 years. But military technology and skills can change, on both sides. Egyptian defensiveness is built on assumptions of Israeli military capability and interest. As Israeli ideology becomes more militant and as its capabilities grow, Egypt may be forced to reconsider its strategic posture. As new generations of officers arise, who have heard of war only from their grandfathers, the fear of war declines and the desire for glory grows. Combine that with ideology in Egypt and Israel and things change. They won’t change quickly — a generation of military transformation will be needed once regimes have changed and the decisions to prepare for war have been made — but they can change.

Two things from this should strike the Israelis. The first is how badly they need peace with Egypt. It is easy to forget what things were like 40 years back, but it is important to remember that the prosperity of Israel today depends in part on the treaty with Egypt. Iran is a distant abstraction, with a notional bomb whose completion date keeps moving. Israel can fight many wars with Egypt and win. It need lose only one. The second lesson is that Israel should do everything possible to make certain that the transfer of power in Egypt is from Mubarak to the next generation of military officers and that these officers maintain their credibility in Egypt. Whether Israel likes it or not, there is an Islamist movement in Egypt. Whether the new generation controls that movement as the previous one did or whether they succumb to it is the existential question for Israel. If the treaty with Egypt is the foundation of Israel’s national security, it is logical that the Israelis should do everything possible to preserve it.

This was not the fatal heart attack. It might not even have been more than indigestion. But recent events in Egypt point to a long-term problem with Israeli strategy. Given the strategic and ideological crosscurrents in Egypt, it is in Israel’s national interest to minimize the intensity of the ideological and make certain that Israel is not perceived as a threat. In Gaza, for example, Israel and Egypt may have shared a common interest in containing Hamas, and the next generation of Egyptian officers may share it as well. But what didn’t materialize in the streets this time could in the future: an Islamist rising. In that case, the Egyptian military might find it in its interest to preserve its power by accommodating the Islamists. At this point, Egypt becomes the problem and not part of the solution.

Keeping Egypt from coming to this is the imperative of military dispassion. If the long-term center of gravity of Israel’s national security is at least the neutrality of Egypt, then doing everything to maintain that is a military requirement. That military requirement must be carried out by political means. That requires the recognition of priorities. The future of Gaza or the precise borders of a Palestinian state are trivial compared to preserving the treaty with Egypt. If it is found that a particular political strategy undermines the strategic requirement, then that political strategy must be sacrificed.

In other words, the worst-case scenario for Israel would be a return to the pre-1978 relationship with Egypt without a settlement with the Palestinians. That would open the door for a potential two-front war with an intifada in the middle. To avoid that, the ideological pressure on Egypt must be eased, and that means a settlement with the Palestinians on less-than-optimal terms. The alternative is to stay the current course and let Israel take its chances. The question is where the greater safety lies. Israel has assumed that it lies with confrontation with the Palestinians. That’s true only if Egypt stays neutral. If the pressure on the Palestinians destabilizes Egypt, it is not the most prudent course.

There are those in Israel who would argue that any release in pressure on the Palestinians will be met with rejection. If that is true, then, in my view, that is catastrophic news for Israel. In due course, ideological shifts and recalculations of Israeli intentions will cause a change in Egyptian policy. This will take several decades to turn into effective military force, and the first conflicts may well end in Israeli victory. But, as I have said before, it must always be remembered that no matter how many times Israel wins, it need only lose once to be annihilated.

To some it means that Israel should remain as strong as possible. To me it means that Israel should avoid rolling the dice too often, regardless of how strong it thinks it is. The Mubarak affair might open a strategic reconsideration of the Israeli position.

This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR