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Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Elections, family dynasties and choice

I recall the 2008 election and the media darlings said to the Republicans "You need to nominate McCain, he is the only one who can win..." Result, loss. Fast forward to 2012 and the usual suspects again say "Nominate Romney, the intellectual father of Obamacare, he's the only man who can win..." Result, we get another term of an incompetent man-child going hog wild. Now look forward to 2016 and our nominal friends tell us the new candidate who can beat Mrs. Bill Clinton is someone new, fresh, with an outside of the Beltway view. Jeb Bush.

Jeb Bush and the Three Amigos Path to the Presidency

The Republican field for president has one stable center of gravity right now -- Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Cruz doesn't dominate with ideas or fundraising prowess or his political network. He dominates with orthodoxy. As the most inflexible and unyielding conservative presidential prospect in a party with an inflexible and unyielding base, Cruz represents the pure religion against which the beliefs of other candidates are judged.

You can see the effects of Cruz's gravitational pull on the retrograde orbit of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. Rubio boldly championed immigration reform and seems eager to be identified with realistic policy ideas. But his entrepreneurial streak has left the base skeptical of his motives, and Rubio appearing compromised and conflicted...

No, the reason Rubio is appearing "compromised and conflicted" is because he sold out the Tea Party members who put him in office on amnesty. He's dead to the base. He may be able to gain the nomination but unless he has a come to Jesus moment ("I was completely wrong on joining with the old white men on amnesty! Forgive me!") with the base, he will never be president. Same with Paul Ryan.

...Right now, perhaps the best thing Paul and Rubio have going for them is each other. When Rubio proposes a thoughtful reform of student loans, he stretches the boundaries for Paul. When Paul says Republicans need to reach out to racial minorities -- even with his own complicated history on race -- or "agree to disagree" on social issues, he creates elbow room for Rubio.

But this two-man dynamic isn't sufficient: Rubio remains battered by his attempt to solve a problem, immigration, which the base doesn't want solved, and Paul remains too much of a party outlier. They could use a hand from a third amigo: Jeb Bush.

By entering the presidential race, Bush would be a spokesman for sane conservatism, but he would also be another force pushing against the party's contraction. His deliberately provocative comments on immigrants -- in which he described crossing the border as an "act of love" -- alienates him from the rank and file. And his refusal to walk away from his support for the Common Core education reforms won't help win those voters back. But by establishing himself as a Chamber of Commerce candidate who refuses to kowtow to the Cruz wing, he can help loosen the straitjacket that keeps Republican politics and policy so dangerously restricted.

Love that term "sane conservatism". That's a dog whistle for moderate or sell outs. I wonder is I will ever hear the term "sane liberalism" from Bloomberg?

...But imagine a 2016 presidential primary that includes the quirky Paul, the straddling Rubio and the defiantly establishment yet Hispanic-friendly Bush. The party would be stretched instead of constricted. The opportunities for policy entrepreneurship would grow along with the chances of a conservative politics based on something more broadly appealing than unremitting anger.

The danger, of course, is that Cruz would dominate the angry base vote while the three relative innovators competed over the party's less-energized remainder. By splitting the libertarian and mainstream conservative vote, the three amigos might deliver the nomination to Cruz. The Texan, however, will no doubt face competition of his own, even if it's from flavor-of-the-moment candidates such as the former surgeon Ben Carson.

Besides, for Bush, the risk is worth taking. Paul's appeal may be sufficiently idiosyncratic to power him to the end of the race, but not to victory. Either Rubio or Bush, however, would probably have to drop out without early primary victories and, of the two, Bush seems better suited to prevail. Ideally, once some ideological breathing space had been secured, whichever of the two is left standing could find a path to victory without having to endure Romneyesque contortions.

The alternative is likely another dispiriting primary season featuring candidates aping the base's hostility to science, immigrants and tens upon tens of millions of their fellow American citizens. Republicans desperately need a candidate who can change that ugly scenario. Perhaps they need three.

His mommy even said this country needs to have more choice for president than from political families like the Bush's and the Clinton's. She is right. While we are at it, get ride of the Kennedy's.

Again, if the Republican establishment nominates another North Eastern moderate as a candidate put a fork in America, she is done. Mrs. Bill Clinton walks into the White House, Obamacare is locked in and amnesty is put in, making the Republicans a minority party for generations. Mark Styen said it best during the 2012 Republican nomination fight, "America don't need a compromise, it needs a choice." Hopefully, after seeing Cantor knocked off there is hope someone can give the electorate that choice.

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